房價回調加劇，明年美國樓市會怎么走？
Lance Lambert
2022-10-12
任何時候美聯儲進入對抗通脹模式，美國房地產市場就會變得脆弱。但是，當美國房價在短短兩年內飆升43%之后進行加息，后果將更加嚴重。
當然，這就是我們現在所看到的情況。盡管人口結構很有利，庫存水平緊張，可負擔性方面存在壓力——抵押貸款利率飆升加上房價泡沫——正開始壓低房價。事實上，上周我們了解到，凱斯-席勒房價指數顯示，美國房價自2012年以來首次出現環比下跌。
在全國范圍內，由于抵押貸款利率為6%，美國房地產市場正趨于平衡。在疫情期間的房地產熱潮中，美國房地產市場的抵押貸款利率定為3%。但我們仍處于早期階段。而且，持續進行的房價修正還沒有影響到所有市場：5月至8月間，圣何塞的房價下跌了10.6%，而奧蘭多的房價上漲了2%。
為了更好地了解美國房地產市場低迷的下一步走向，以及房價修正是否會很快沖擊更多市場，《財富》雜志聯系了Zonda的首席經濟學家阿里·沃爾夫（Ali Wolf）。當她不在全國各地與房屋建筑商交談時，她就會向白宮提供有關住房問題的建議。
以下是《財富》雜志對阿里·沃爾夫的采訪。
《財富》雜志：隨著數據出爐，很明顯，美國許多市場的房價都在下跌。在一些地方，下跌幅度相當大。你認為房價下跌會持續到2023年嗎?
沃爾夫：我們還沒有看到全國各地的房價普遍下降，但有一些市場的房價已經開始下降，我們預計在接下來的幾個月里，美國更多的大都市都會出現這種情況。只要利率保持在高位，消費者需求仍然疲軟，預計2023年房價將出現回調。
哪些類型的市場是最脆弱的?
最脆弱的市場包括：（1）那些因為混合型工作模式而導致房價大幅上漲的市場，如博伊西、拉斯維加斯和丹佛。（2）沒有當地就業基礎來支撐較高房價的市場（換句話說，就是那些房價和收入不匹配的市場），如納什維爾和佛羅里達州的部分地區。（3）住房庫存迅速上升的市場，如鳳凰城和奧斯汀。
為什么奧斯汀、博伊西和鳳凰城這樣的市場轉變如此之快？
奧斯汀、博伊西和鳳凰城等市場的房地產熱潮是全美最早、最火爆的。創紀錄的低抵押貸款利率，加上疫情帶來的生活方式的改變，包括居家辦公和搬遷的增加，導致住房需求急劇上升，而供應卻無法跟上。
那些從加利福尼亞州和華盛頓等地搬遷過來的人能夠利用從成本較高的市場出售房屋獲得的房屋凈值，并將這些資金用于在這些相對更實惠的市場購買新房。搬遷過來的買家發現這些市場與他們搬出的地方相比非常實惠，這對本地買家不利。
這些市場認為，供需失衡是如此嚴重且長期存在，以至于市場永遠不會過熱。為買房而瘋狂的購房者幾乎愿意支付任何價格來買房。投資者和炒房者認為，這些市場時機已經成熟。這種心態導致房價大幅上漲。
然而，隨著利率在2022年初上升，現實情況開始發揮作用。房價升值正在放緩，并不是所有掛牌的房屋在上線一天內都能以高于標價的價格出售。房屋需求放緩之際，恰逢一些在建的新房開始上市，而二手房庫存迅速增加，因為賣家試圖把握他們認為房價達到峰值的時機。
您預計抵押貸款利率接近7%時會對房地產市場產生怎樣的影響？在抵押貸款利率為5%時，房價修正已經在進行。我們是否應該預期抵押貸款利率為6.5%-7%時，這種情況會更嚴重？
住房可負擔性是由很多因素驅動的，但兩大關鍵因素是房價和抵押貸款利率。我們剛剛經歷了美國歷史上一個獨特的時期，不斷上漲的房價被創紀錄的低利率所抵消。廉價融資成本有助于控制月供。
不過，自今年年初以來，利率大幅上升，給住房可負擔性帶來了壓力。當利率從3%上升到4%時，過高的房價讓購房者望而卻步，而每增加100個基點，就會使數百萬美國人因房價過高而無法獲得住房所有權。
如果抵押貸款利率在較長一段時間內保持高位，我們預計住房需求將保持疲軟，新屋建設將受到限制，全國各地的房價將出現回調。（財富中文網）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
任何時候美聯儲進入對抗通脹模式，美國房地產市場就會變得脆弱。但是，當美國房價在短短兩年內飆升43%之后進行加息，后果將更加嚴重。
當然，這就是我們現在所看到的情況。盡管人口結構很有利，庫存水平緊張，可負擔性方面存在壓力——抵押貸款利率飆升加上房價泡沫——正開始壓低房價。事實上，上周我們了解到，凱斯-席勒房價指數顯示，美國房價自2012年以來首次出現環比下跌。
在全國范圍內，由于抵押貸款利率為6%，美國房地產市場正趨于平衡。在疫情期間的房地產熱潮中，美國房地產市場的抵押貸款利率定為3%。但我們仍處于早期階段。而且，持續進行的房價修正還沒有影響到所有市場：5月至8月間，圣何塞的房價下跌了10.6%，而奧蘭多的房價上漲了2%。
為了更好地了解美國房地產市場低迷的下一步走向，以及房價修正是否會很快沖擊更多市場，《財富》雜志聯系了Zonda的首席經濟學家阿里·沃爾夫（Ali Wolf）。當她不在全國各地與房屋建筑商交談時，她就會向白宮提供有關住房問題的建議。
以下是《財富》雜志對阿里·沃爾夫的采訪。
《財富》雜志：隨著數據出爐，很明顯，美國許多市場的房價都在下跌。在一些地方，下跌幅度相當大。你認為房價下跌會持續到2023年嗎?
沃爾夫：我們還沒有看到全國各地的房價普遍下降，但有一些市場的房價已經開始下降，我們預計在接下來的幾個月里，美國更多的大都市都會出現這種情況。只要利率保持在高位，消費者需求仍然疲軟，預計2023年房價將出現回調。
哪些類型的市場是最脆弱的?
最脆弱的市場包括：（1）那些因為混合型工作模式而導致房價大幅上漲的市場，如博伊西、拉斯維加斯和丹佛。（2）沒有當地就業基礎來支撐較高房價的市場（換句話說，就是那些房價和收入不匹配的市場），如納什維爾和佛羅里達州的部分地區。（3）住房庫存迅速上升的市場，如鳳凰城和奧斯汀。
為什么奧斯汀、博伊西和鳳凰城這樣的市場轉變如此之快？
奧斯汀、博伊西和鳳凰城等市場的房地產熱潮是全美最早、最火爆的。創紀錄的低抵押貸款利率，加上疫情帶來的生活方式的改變，包括居家辦公和搬遷的增加，導致住房需求急劇上升，而供應卻無法跟上。
那些從加利福尼亞州和華盛頓等地搬遷過來的人能夠利用從成本較高的市場出售房屋獲得的房屋凈值，并將這些資金用于在這些相對更實惠的市場購買新房。搬遷過來的買家發現這些市場與他們搬出的地方相比非常實惠，這對本地買家不利。
這些市場認為，供需失衡是如此嚴重且長期存在，以至于市場永遠不會過熱。為買房而瘋狂的購房者幾乎愿意支付任何價格來買房。投資者和炒房者認為，這些市場時機已經成熟。這種心態導致房價大幅上漲。
然而，隨著利率在2022年初上升，現實情況開始發揮作用。房價升值正在放緩，并不是所有掛牌的房屋在上線一天內都能以高于標價的價格出售。房屋需求放緩之際，恰逢一些在建的新房開始上市，而二手房庫存迅速增加，因為賣家試圖把握他們認為房價達到峰值的時機。
您預計抵押貸款利率接近7%時會對房地產市場產生怎樣的影響？在抵押貸款利率為5%時，房價修正已經在進行。我們是否應該預期抵押貸款利率為6.5%-7%時，這種情況會更嚴重？
住房可負擔性是由很多因素驅動的，但兩大關鍵因素是房價和抵押貸款利率。我們剛剛經歷了美國歷史上一個獨特的時期，不斷上漲的房價被創紀錄的低利率所抵消。廉價融資成本有助于控制月供。
不過，自今年年初以來，利率大幅上升，給住房可負擔性帶來了壓力。當利率從3%上升到4%時，過高的房價讓購房者望而卻步，而每增加100個基點，就會使數百萬美國人因房價過高而無法獲得住房所有權。
如果抵押貸款利率在較長一段時間內保持高位，我們預計住房需求將保持疲軟，新屋建設將受到限制，全國各地的房價將出現回調。（財富中文網）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
Anytime the Federal Reserve moves into inflation-fighting mode, the U.S. housing market is going to be vulnerable. But when those interest rate hikes come after U.S. home prices soared 43% in just over two years, the consequences will be even more pronounced.
That, of course, is what we’re seeing now. Despite favorable demographics and tight inventory levels, pressured affordability—spiked mortgage rates coupled with frothy home prices—is beginning to push home prices lower. In fact, this week we learned that U.S. home prices as measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted its first month-over-month decline since 2012.
Across the country, the U.S. housing market—which got priced to 3% mortgage rates during the Pandemic Housing Boom—is working toward equilibrium in the face of 6% mortgage rates. But we’re still in the early innings. And the ongoing home price correction still hasn’t hit every market: Between May and August, home values in San Jose fell 10.6% while home values grew 2% in Orlando.
To better understand where the U.S. housing downturn heads next—and if the home price correction will soon hit more markets—Fortune reached out to Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf. When she’s not traveling around the country speaking to homebuilders, she’s advising the White House on housing matters.
Below is Fortune‘s Q&A with Ali Wolf.
Fortune: As the data rolls in, it’s pretty clear that home prices are falling in many markets across the country. In some places it’s fairly sharp. Do you expect home price declines to continue into 2023?
Wolf: We haven’t seen home prices drop universally across the country, but there are some markets where home prices have started to come down and we expect to see that in more metros across the country in the next handful of months. Corrections in home prices can be expected in 2023 as long as interest rates remain elevated and consumer demand remains slow.
What types of markets are the most vulnerable?
The markets that are the most vulnerable include: 1) Those where home prices rose sharply because of hybrid work, like Boise, Las Vegas, and Denver. 2) Markets that don’t have a local employment base to support the higher home prices (put another way, markets where home prices and incomes are out of whack), like Nashville and parts of Florida. 3) Markets where housing inventory has risen rapidly, like Phoenix and Austin.
Why are markets like Austin, Boise, and Phoenix shifting so fast?
The housing booms seen in markets like Austin, Boise, and Phoenix were among the earliest in the nation and the sharpest. The record-low mortgage interest rates combined with lifestyle changes brought on by the pandemic, including work from home and increased relocations, drove a dramatic uptick in housing demand and supply could not keep pace.
Those relocating from places like California and Washington were able to tap home equity from a sale in the higher cost market and put those funds towards buying a new home in these relatively more affordable markets. Relocation buyers found these markets very affordable compared to where they were moving from at the detriment of local buyers.
There was a belief in these markets that the supply and demand imbalance was so severe and so long standing that the markets could never get overheated. Buyers, frantic to secure a home, were willing to pay almost any price to secure a home. Investors and flippers considered these markets ripe for opportunities. This mentality contributed to the massive run-up in home prices.
As interest rates rose in early 2022, however, reality started to kick in. Home price appreciation was slowing and not every home that was listed was selling for above the list price within a day of coming online. The demand for housing slowed just as some of the new homes under construction started coming online and existing home inventory rapidly increased as sellers tried to time what they believed to be the top of the market.
How do you expect mortgage rates near 7% to impact the housing market? We were already correcting with 5% mortgage rates. Should we expect things to intensify with 6.5%-7% rates?
Housing affordability is driven by many factors, but the two key inputs are home prices and mortgage rates. We just lived through a unique period in American history where rising home prices were offset by record-low interest rates. The cheap financing helped keep the monthly mortgage payment in check.
Interest rates have risen dramatically since the start of the year, though, putting a strain on housing affordability. Buyers were already starting to get priced out of the market when interest rates moved from 3% to 4% and every 100-basis point increase has continued to price millions of Americans out of homeownership.
If mortgage rates remain elevated for an extended period, we expect that housing demand will remain soft, new home construction will be restricted, and home prices will need to adjust downward across the country.
財富中文網所刊載內容之知識產權為財富媒體知識產權有限公司及/或相關權利人專屬所有或持有。未經許可，禁止進行轉載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
