下半年投資美股應以防守為主，這6只股票有望跑贏大盤
Ali Fazal
2022-06-26
2022年上半年已經過去了，最近所有的市場似乎都亮起了紅燈。
富國銀行投資研究所（Wells Fargo Investment Institute）的總裁達雷爾·克朗克在該行的年中展望報告里寫道：“這種通脹‘熱’看起來可能預示著今年年底和明年年初會出現溫和的衰退‘病’，除非經濟狀況改變當前的走向。與過去一樣，我們預計美聯儲（Federal Reserve）這位‘醫生’很難準確地開出正確的利率劑量。”
在今年下半年開始之際，這對投資者意味著什么？富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的分析師建議投資者瞄準具有特定防御型板塊的美國大中型股票。這意味著要仔細研究能源、醫療保健和信息技術等領域。例如，盡管油價上漲、供應緊張，能源仍然將是必需品。另一方面，隨著行業整合和人口結構促進增長，醫療保健板塊有可能成為長期股票板塊。
綜合石油股票和中游C類公司
綜合性石油公司，包括那些參與上游和下游業務的公司以及擁有石油管道等資產的中游C類公司，被富國銀行評為“受歡迎”。
事實證明，獨立研究人員傾向于同意這一觀點。TotalEnergies SE是一家勘探、生產和精煉石油的綜合性石油和天然氣公司，在金融研究與分析中心（Center for Financial Research and Analysis）的評級中保持四星買入的評級。該公司第一季度業績強勁，調整后凈利潤為90億美元，較去年同期增長了三倍。分析人士還認為，放寬疫情限制和限制供應增長將支撐石油和天然氣價格。福特股票研究公司（Ford Equity Research）基于過去五個季度的收益增長，給了總部位于美國得克薩斯州沃斯堡的石油公司Range Resources Corp.買入評級。
另一方面，富國銀行認為油田服務和煉油商“不受歡迎”，分析師表示，如果消費者需求下降，它們可能就會受到供應過剩的影響。
生命科學、管理式醫療和醫療器械
富國銀行挑選了三個它們認為現在值得密切關注的醫療保健子板塊。生命科學工具和服務行業涉及藥物開發、發現和生產的公司。管理式醫療子板塊描述了參與旨在提供醫療保健服務同時提高質量和降低成本的活動的公司。醫療器械和設備行業由開發、制造和分銷醫療保健技術的公司組成。
由于新冠疫情和政治帶來的風險降低，管理式醫療子板塊尤其受到分析師的青睞。此外，據富國銀行稱，人口和整合的長期增長驅動力也適用于管理式醫療行業。被金融研究與分析中心評為買入評級的公司包括生命科學行業軟件解決方案供應商Veeva Systems Inc.。由于其在業內優質軟件方面的先發優勢以及增長機會，分析師預計其將跑贏大盤。專注于罕見病治療的BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Inc.也獲得了買入評級，因為該公司在罕見病治療的商業化方面取得了成功。富國銀行不看好仿制藥子板塊；根據IQVIA的數據，截至2021年，行業收入已經下降了五年。
IT服務、網絡設備和企業軟件
長期以來，信息技術板塊一直被認為具有周期性。然而，分析師認為，由于其長期前景，該板塊是一個不錯的選擇。富國銀行明確指出了三個子行業，它們預計這些行業的技術支出有彈性，財務指標質量高：IT服務，包括幫助企業實現流程管理和優化的公司；網絡設備，由電信網絡信息傳輸處理公司組成；以及企業軟件：專為企業提供的企業軟件。
特定股票包括Atlassian，這是一家為團隊提供軟件和IT解決方案的公司。金融研究與分析中心將其評為“強力買入”。半導體設備和支付處理也屬于信息技術板塊，是該報告中備受吹捧的子板塊。據福特股票研究公司的分析師稱，保險絲和繼電器的主要供應商Littelfuse Inc.正在擴大其功率半導體業務，預計其將跑贏大盤。包括技術硬件制造商在內的存儲和外圍設備在富國銀行的報告里被評為“不受歡迎”。
中性板塊
雖然能源、醫療保健和信息技術是三大優勢板塊，但分析師們仍然認為有一些值得進一步考慮的機會——如果你知道去哪里看的話。
報告稱：“即使在我們評級為中性的板塊，我們也看到了擺脫老齡化經濟周期的機會，方法是關注那些通常不像更廣泛的行業那樣緊隨經濟周期的子行業。例子包括工業領域的國防承包商、金融領域的財產和意外險，以及材料領域的工業氣體。”
富國銀行還傾向于給予消費必需品和公用事業股票中性評級，這兩類股票通常被定義為防御型股票，因為該板塊在市場低迷時期具有傳統韌性。
最終，分析師表示，如果投資者有選擇性地關注少數防御型股票，就有機會跑贏大盤。分析師稱，更大范圍下行的持續時間將在一定程度上取決于通脹是否會持續以及對滯脹的擔憂。根據高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）的研究，預計到2022年年底，失業率將上升至3.7%，而此前的預測為3.5%。其《經濟預測摘要》（Summary of Economic Projections）還下調了對GDP的預測，并上調了核心通脹的預測中值。
換句話說，投資者在牛市期間采取了進攻策略。但現在是時候進行防守了。（財富中文網）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
2022年上半年已經過去了，最近所有的市場似乎都亮起了紅燈。
富國銀行投資研究所（Wells Fargo Investment Institute）的總裁達雷爾·克朗克在該行的年中展望報告里寫道：“這種通脹‘熱’看起來可能預示著今年年底和明年年初會出現溫和的衰退‘病’，除非經濟狀況改變當前的走向。與過去一樣，我們預計美聯儲（Federal Reserve）這位‘醫生’很難準確地開出正確的利率劑量。”
在今年下半年開始之際，這對投資者意味著什么？富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的分析師建議投資者瞄準具有特定防御型板塊的美國大中型股票。這意味著要仔細研究能源、醫療保健和信息技術等領域。例如，盡管油價上漲、供應緊張，能源仍然將是必需品。另一方面，隨著行業整合和人口結構促進增長，醫療保健板塊有可能成為長期股票板塊。
綜合石油股票和中游C類公司
綜合性石油公司，包括那些參與上游和下游業務的公司以及擁有石油管道等資產的中游C類公司，被富國銀行評為“受歡迎”。
事實證明，獨立研究人員傾向于同意這一觀點。TotalEnergies SE是一家勘探、生產和精煉石油的綜合性石油和天然氣公司，在金融研究與分析中心（Center for Financial Research and Analysis）的評級中保持四星買入的評級。該公司第一季度業績強勁，調整后凈利潤為90億美元，較去年同期增長了三倍。分析人士還認為，放寬疫情限制和限制供應增長將支撐石油和天然氣價格。福特股票研究公司（Ford Equity Research）基于過去五個季度的收益增長，給了總部位于美國得克薩斯州沃斯堡的石油公司Range Resources Corp.買入評級。
另一方面，富國銀行認為油田服務和煉油商“不受歡迎”，分析師表示，如果消費者需求下降，它們可能就會受到供應過剩的影響。
生命科學、管理式醫療和醫療器械
富國銀行挑選了三個它們認為現在值得密切關注的醫療保健子板塊。生命科學工具和服務行業涉及藥物開發、發現和生產的公司。管理式醫療子板塊描述了參與旨在提供醫療保健服務同時提高質量和降低成本的活動的公司。醫療器械和設備行業由開發、制造和分銷醫療保健技術的公司組成。
由于新冠疫情和政治帶來的風險降低，管理式醫療子板塊尤其受到分析師的青睞。此外，據富國銀行稱，人口和整合的長期增長驅動力也適用于管理式醫療行業。被金融研究與分析中心評為買入評級的公司包括生命科學行業軟件解決方案供應商Veeva Systems Inc.。由于其在業內優質軟件方面的先發優勢以及增長機會，分析師預計其將跑贏大盤。專注于罕見病治療的BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Inc.也獲得了買入評級，因為該公司在罕見病治療的商業化方面取得了成功。富國銀行不看好仿制藥子板塊；根據IQVIA的數據，截至2021年，行業收入已經下降了五年。
IT服務、網絡設備和企業軟件
長期以來，信息技術板塊一直被認為具有周期性。然而，分析師認為，由于其長期前景，該板塊是一個不錯的選擇。富國銀行明確指出了三個子行業，它們預計這些行業的技術支出有彈性，財務指標質量高：IT服務，包括幫助企業實現流程管理和優化的公司；網絡設備，由電信網絡信息傳輸處理公司組成；以及企業軟件：專為企業提供的企業軟件。
特定股票包括Atlassian，這是一家為團隊提供軟件和IT解決方案的公司。金融研究與分析中心將其評為“強力買入”。半導體設備和支付處理也屬于信息技術板塊，是該報告中備受吹捧的子板塊。據福特股票研究公司的分析師稱，保險絲和繼電器的主要供應商Littelfuse Inc.正在擴大其功率半導體業務，預計其將跑贏大盤。包括技術硬件制造商在內的存儲和外圍設備在富國銀行的報告里被評為“不受歡迎”。
中性板塊
雖然能源、醫療保健和信息技術是三大優勢板塊，但分析師們仍然認為有一些值得進一步考慮的機會——如果你知道去哪里看的話。
報告稱：“即使在我們評級為中性的板塊，我們也看到了擺脫老齡化經濟周期的機會，方法是關注那些通常不像更廣泛的行業那樣緊隨經濟周期的子行業。例子包括工業領域的國防承包商、金融領域的財產和意外險，以及材料領域的工業氣體。”
富國銀行還傾向于給予消費必需品和公用事業股票中性評級，這兩類股票通常被定義為防御型股票，因為該板塊在市場低迷時期具有傳統韌性。
最終，分析師表示，如果投資者有選擇性地關注少數防御型股票，就有機會跑贏大盤。分析師稱，更大范圍下行的持續時間將在一定程度上取決于通脹是否會持續以及對滯脹的擔憂。根據高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）的研究，預計到2022年年底，失業率將上升至3.7%，而此前的預測為3.5%。其《經濟預測摘要》（Summary of Economic Projections）還下調了對GDP的預測，并上調了核心通脹的預測中值。
換句話說，投資者在牛市期間采取了進攻策略。但現在是時候進行防守了。（財富中文網）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
With the first half of 2022 in the rearview mirror, it seems that all the markets have been seeing lately is red.
“This inflation ‘fever’ looks likely to signal a mild recession ‘disease’ late this year and early next year, unless conditions alter the economy's current course,” Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) President Darrell Cronk wrote in the bank’s mid-year outlook report. “As in the past, we expect it to prove difficult for the Federal Reserve (Fed) ‘physician’ to exactly prescribe the right interest rate dosage.”
What does this mean for investors as they kick off the last 6 months of the year? Wells Fargo analysts are recommending that investors target large- and mid-cap U.S. equities with specific defensive sector targets. That means taking a closer look at areas such as energy, healthcare and information technology. Energy, for instance, will continue to be a necessity despite the uptick in oil prices and supply constraints. The healthcare sector, on the other hand, has the potential to be a longer-term play as industry consolidation and demographics facilitate growth.
Integrated Oil Stocks and Midstream C-Corps
Integrated oil companies, which include those involved in upstream and downstream operations, as well as midstream c-corps, which own assets such as oil pipelines, garnered a “favorable” ranking for Wells Fargo.
And as it turns out, independent researchers tend to agree. TotalEnergies SE, an integrated oil and gas company exploring for, producing, and refining oil, maintains a four-star buy rating rating from the Center for Financial Research and Analysis (CFRA). The company posted a strong first quarter with an adjusted net income of $9 billion, representing a 3x increase from the first quarter the previous year. Analysts also believe that easing pandemic restrictions and restrained supply growth will support oil and gas prices. Range Resources Corp., an oil corporation based in Fort Worth, was given a buy rating from Ford Equity Research based on the increase in earnings over the past 5 quarters.
On the flip side, oilfield services and refiners were deemed “unfavorable” by Wells Fargo, as analysts say could suffer from excess supply if consumer demand lowers.
Life Sciences, Managed Care, and Medical Devices
Wells Fargo picked three sub-sectors of health care that they think merit a close look right now. The life sciences tools and services industry involves companies dealing with drug development and discovery as well as production. The managed care sub-sector describes companies involved in activities intended to provide health care services while improving quality and reducing costs. The medical devices and equipment industry consists of companies developing, manufacturing and distributing technologies for health care.
The managed care sub-sector is specifically favored by analysts because of diminishing risks from the COVID-19 pandemic and politics. Additionally, the demographic and consolidation longer-term growth drivers are also applicable to the managed care industry, according to Wells Fargo. Companies that were given buy ratings by CFRA include Veeva Systems Inc., a software solutions supplier in the life sciences industry. Due to its first mover advantage for quality software in the industry, as well as opportunities for growth, Veeva Systems is expected by analysts to outperform the market. BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Inc., a company with a focus on rare-disease therapies, has a buy rating as well due to its success at commercializing rare disease treatments. Wells Fargo looks unfavorably upon the generic pharmaceuticals sub-sector; according to data from IQVIA, industry revenues have decreased over 5 years to 2021.
IT Services, Networking Equipment, and Enterprise Software
The information technology sector has long been considered to be cyclical. However, analysts consider the sector to be a good play due to its long-term prospects. Wells Fargo pinpoints three sub-industries where they expect resilient tech spending and high-quality financial metrics: IT services, which includes companies that help organizations manage and optimize processes; networking equipment, which consists of companies that handle directing information along telecommunications networks; and enterprise software for organizations.
Among specific stocks are Atlassian, a company that provides software and IT solutions to teams. CFRA rates it a "strong buy." Semiconductor equipment and payment processing, which also fall under the information technology sector, were some of the highly touted sub-sectors in the report. Littelfuse Inc., a primary provider of fuses and relays, is increasing its power semiconductor business and is projected to outperform the market according to analysts at Ford. Storage and peripherals, which include technology hardware manufacturers, gained an “unfavorable” rating in Wells Fargo’s report.
Neutral Sectors
While energy, health care, and information technology are the three favorable sectors, analysts still a few opportunities worth considering further afield—if you know where to look.
“Even in sectors we rate as neutral, we see opportunities to diversify away from the aging economic cycle by looking to sub-industries that generally follow the economic cycle less closely than the broader sector does,” the report said. “Examples would include Defense Contractors within Industrials, Property & Casualty Insurance within Financials, and Industrial Gases within Materials.”
Wells Fargo also favors a neutral rating to consumer staples and utilities, which are generally defined in the category of defensive stocks, due to the sectors’ traditional resilience during a downturn in the market.
Ultimately, analysts say being selective and focusing on a tight array of defensive stocks, investors have a chance to beat the overall market. The duration of broader downdraft, analysts say, will in part depend on whether inflation will continue to persist and worries of stagflation. According to research done by Goldman Sachs, unemployment rates are projected to rise to 3.7% by the end of 2022, compared to a previous projection of 3.5%. Its Summary of Economic Projections also downgrades forecasts for the GPD as well as rises in the median core inflation projections.
Put another way, investors played offense during the bull market. But now it's time to play defense.
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