隨著食品和理發(fā)價(jià)格的攀升,以及假期開(kāi)始時(shí)汽油價(jià)格的飆升,美國(guó)人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的前景感到悲觀。
上周五公布的最新月度消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲8.6%——40 年來(lái)的最高水平——大多數(shù)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格短期內(nèi)不可能下降。
那么,這對(duì)消費(fèi)者意味著什么呢?根據(jù)廣受關(guān)注的英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的說(shuō)法,這可能意味著美國(guó)資本主義的徹底瓦解。
唯一需要注意的是:凱恩斯在100多年前也發(fā)現(xiàn)了同樣的現(xiàn)象——高通脹。
1919年,正值第一次世界大戰(zhàn)和俄國(guó)革命時(shí)期,在歐洲通貨膨脹肆虐之際,凱恩斯在發(fā)表《和平的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果》(The Economic Consequences of the Peace)一書(shū)后聲名鵲起。在書(shū)中那個(gè)廣為人知的段落里,他沉思了布爾什維克對(duì)資本主義的批評(píng),尤其是對(duì)高通脹的批評(píng)。
凱恩斯寫(xiě)道:“據(jù)說(shuō)列寧(Lenin)曾宣稱,摧毀資本主義制度的最佳方式就是讓貨幣貶值。通過(guò)持續(xù)的通貨膨脹過(guò)程,政府可以在不被察覺(jué)的情況下秘密沒(méi)收公民財(cái)富的重要組成部分。”
此外,他還表示,這種“對(duì)財(cái)富的任意重新整合”打擊了人們的安全感和對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)制度的信心。他還解釋說(shuō),當(dāng)消費(fèi)者看到資本家在他們?cè)馐芡ㄘ浥蛎泿?lái)的痛苦的同時(shí)如何積累財(cái)富時(shí),通貨膨脹使消費(fèi)者反對(duì)資本家——用他的話說(shuō)就是“投機(jī)倒把者”。
然后,他以戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和革命以及隨之而來(lái)的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩為背景,討論了20世紀(jì)10年代的通貨膨脹問(wèn)題。“列寧當(dāng)然是對(duì)的。”他總結(jié)道。“要顛覆現(xiàn)有的社會(huì)基礎(chǔ),沒(méi)有比讓貨幣貶值更微妙、更可靠的手段了。”
凱恩斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)著作最終催生了“凱恩斯主義”(Keynesian)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派,他還在二戰(zhàn)后的布雷頓森林會(huì)議(Bretton Woods conference)親自參與了國(guó)際戰(zhàn)后貨幣秩序的談判。
但正是凱恩斯對(duì)通貨膨脹問(wèn)題的討論才讓他嶄露頭角。
有著21世紀(jì)20年代風(fēng)格的貨幣貶值
凱恩斯寫(xiě)道,隨著通貨膨脹加劇,貨幣價(jià)值會(huì)出現(xiàn)不可預(yù)測(cè)的波動(dòng),持有貨幣的人和不持有貨幣的人之間的關(guān)系就會(huì)破裂。他說(shuō):“獲得財(cái)富的過(guò)程退化成了賭博和彩票。”
21世紀(jì)20年代的美國(guó)人對(duì)貨幣貶值略知一二。
汽油是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)認(rèn)同的核心,百年汽車(chē)文化構(gòu)成了美國(guó)文化的基礎(chǔ)。如今,全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)的汽油價(jià)格接近每加侖5美元,這是否預(yù)示著美國(guó)文化的分崩離析?
盡管天然氣價(jià)格上漲歸咎于多種因素——新冠肺炎疫情導(dǎo)致供需中斷、俄烏沖突、能源企業(yè)增產(chǎn)困難以及價(jià)格欺詐的可能性——消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)開(kāi)始抱怨。看看美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬·拜登(Joe Biden)直線下降的支持率和密歇根大學(xué)(University of Michigan)消費(fèi)者信心調(diào)查所顯示的消費(fèi)者信心穩(wěn)步下滑就知道了,這反映了公眾的擔(dān)憂在與日俱增。
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬·拜登在上周的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō):“我們將能夠按下開(kāi)關(guān),降低汽油成本的想法,在近期內(nèi)不太可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。”然而,根據(jù)美國(guó)廣播公司新聞網(wǎng)(ABC News)/益普索(Ipsos)的最新民意調(diào)查,只有四分之一的選民認(rèn)為總統(tǒng)拜登能很好地應(yīng)對(duì)不斷上漲的油價(jià)。
保守派議員們正在深入研究這個(gè)問(wèn)題。參議員約翰·肯尼迪(共和黨-洛杉磯)周二在福克斯新聞(Fox News)的短暫露面中表示:“在我所在的州,汽油價(jià)格如此之高,以至于購(gòu)買(mǎi)可卡因然后到處跑會(huì)更便宜。”
1919年,凱恩斯寫(xiě)道,盡管資本家可能首當(dāng)其沖地承受著消費(fèi)者的憤怒,但他們只是經(jīng)濟(jì)制度大規(guī)模失敗表現(xiàn)出來(lái)的一個(gè)癥狀。“投機(jī)倒把者的出現(xiàn)是價(jià)格上漲的結(jié)果,而不是原因。”凱恩斯寫(xiě)道。
那么如何解決呢?凱恩斯說(shuō)最終要靠政府來(lái)解決問(wèn)題。
他寫(xiě)道:“然而,如果政府不進(jìn)行監(jiān)管,任由事情順其自然,那么必需品的價(jià)格很快就會(huì)達(dá)到只有富人才能承受的水平,那么顯而易見(jiàn)的是金錢(qián)變得毫無(wú)價(jià)值,而且對(duì)公眾的欺詐再也無(wú)法掩蓋了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
隨著食品和理發(fā)價(jià)格的攀升,以及假期開(kāi)始時(shí)汽油價(jià)格的飆升,美國(guó)人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的前景感到悲觀。
上周五公布的最新月度消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲8.6%——40 年來(lái)的最高水平——大多數(shù)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格短期內(nèi)不可能下降。
那么,這對(duì)消費(fèi)者意味著什么呢?根據(jù)廣受關(guān)注的英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的說(shuō)法,這可能意味著美國(guó)資本主義的徹底瓦解。
唯一需要注意的是:凱恩斯在100多年前也發(fā)現(xiàn)了同樣的現(xiàn)象——高通脹。
1919年,正值第一次世界大戰(zhàn)和俄國(guó)革命時(shí)期,在歐洲通貨膨脹肆虐之際,凱恩斯在發(fā)表《和平的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果》(The Economic Consequences of the Peace)一書(shū)后聲名鵲起。在書(shū)中那個(gè)廣為人知的段落里,他沉思了布爾什維克對(duì)資本主義的批評(píng),尤其是對(duì)高通脹的批評(píng)。
凱恩斯寫(xiě)道:“據(jù)說(shuō)列寧(Lenin)曾宣稱,摧毀資本主義制度的最佳方式就是讓貨幣貶值。通過(guò)持續(xù)的通貨膨脹過(guò)程,政府可以在不被察覺(jué)的情況下秘密沒(méi)收公民財(cái)富的重要組成部分。”
此外,他還表示,這種“對(duì)財(cái)富的任意重新整合”打擊了人們的安全感和對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)制度的信心。他還解釋說(shuō),當(dāng)消費(fèi)者看到資本家在他們?cè)馐芡ㄘ浥蛎泿?lái)的痛苦的同時(shí)如何積累財(cái)富時(shí),通貨膨脹使消費(fèi)者反對(duì)資本家——用他的話說(shuō)就是“投機(jī)倒把者”。
然后,他以戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和革命以及隨之而來(lái)的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩為背景,討論了20世紀(jì)10年代的通貨膨脹問(wèn)題。“列寧當(dāng)然是對(duì)的。”他總結(jié)道。“要顛覆現(xiàn)有的社會(huì)基礎(chǔ),沒(méi)有比讓貨幣貶值更微妙、更可靠的手段了。”
凱恩斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)著作最終催生了“凱恩斯主義”(Keynesian)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派,他還在二戰(zhàn)后的布雷頓森林會(huì)議(Bretton Woods conference)親自參與了國(guó)際戰(zhàn)后貨幣秩序的談判。
但正是凱恩斯對(duì)通貨膨脹問(wèn)題的討論才讓他嶄露頭角。
有著21世紀(jì)20年代風(fēng)格的貨幣貶值
凱恩斯寫(xiě)道,隨著通貨膨脹加劇,貨幣價(jià)值會(huì)出現(xiàn)不可預(yù)測(cè)的波動(dòng),持有貨幣的人和不持有貨幣的人之間的關(guān)系就會(huì)破裂。他說(shuō):“獲得財(cái)富的過(guò)程退化成了賭博和彩票。”
21世紀(jì)20年代的美國(guó)人對(duì)貨幣貶值略知一二。
汽油是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)認(rèn)同的核心,百年汽車(chē)文化構(gòu)成了美國(guó)文化的基礎(chǔ)。如今,全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)的汽油價(jià)格接近每加侖5美元,這是否預(yù)示著美國(guó)文化的分崩離析?
盡管天然氣價(jià)格上漲歸咎于多種因素——新冠肺炎疫情導(dǎo)致供需中斷、俄烏沖突、能源企業(yè)增產(chǎn)困難以及價(jià)格欺詐的可能性——消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)開(kāi)始抱怨。看看美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬·拜登(Joe Biden)直線下降的支持率和密歇根大學(xué)(University of Michigan)消費(fèi)者信心調(diào)查所顯示的消費(fèi)者信心穩(wěn)步下滑就知道了,這反映了公眾的擔(dān)憂在與日俱增。
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬·拜登在上周的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō):“我們將能夠按下開(kāi)關(guān),降低汽油成本的想法,在近期內(nèi)不太可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。”然而,根據(jù)美國(guó)廣播公司新聞網(wǎng)(ABC News)/益普索(Ipsos)的最新民意調(diào)查,只有四分之一的選民認(rèn)為總統(tǒng)拜登能很好地應(yīng)對(duì)不斷上漲的油價(jià)。
保守派議員們正在深入研究這個(gè)問(wèn)題。參議員約翰·肯尼迪(共和黨-洛杉磯)周二在福克斯新聞(Fox News)的短暫露面中表示:“在我所在的州,汽油價(jià)格如此之高,以至于購(gòu)買(mǎi)可卡因然后到處跑會(huì)更便宜。”
1919年,凱恩斯寫(xiě)道,盡管資本家可能首當(dāng)其沖地承受著消費(fèi)者的憤怒,但他們只是經(jīng)濟(jì)制度大規(guī)模失敗表現(xiàn)出來(lái)的一個(gè)癥狀。“投機(jī)倒把者的出現(xiàn)是價(jià)格上漲的結(jié)果,而不是原因。”凱恩斯寫(xiě)道。
那么如何解決呢?凱恩斯說(shuō)最終要靠政府來(lái)解決問(wèn)題。
他寫(xiě)道:“然而,如果政府不進(jìn)行監(jiān)管,任由事情順其自然,那么必需品的價(jià)格很快就會(huì)達(dá)到只有富人才能承受的水平,那么顯而易見(jiàn)的是金錢(qián)變得毫無(wú)價(jià)值,而且對(duì)公眾的欺詐再也無(wú)法掩蓋了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
As prices for groceries and haircuts climb, and as gasoline prices soar during the start of the vacation season, Americans are pessimistic about the economy’s future.
And with the latest monthly Consumer Price Index released on Friday showing an 8.6% gain—the highest in 40 years—most product prices are unlikely to decline any time soon.
So what does that mean for consumers? Maybe the total unraveling of American capitalism, according to the much-studied English economist John Maynard Keynes.
The only catch: Keynes was observing the same phenomenon—high inflation—over 100 years ago.
Writing in 1919, amid rampant inflation in Europe, during the era of World War I and the Russian Revolution, Keynes became well known after publishing The Economic Consequences of the Peace. It included one famous passage in which he mused about some of the Bolsheviks’ criticisms of capitalism, particularly about high inflation.
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency,” Keynes wrote. “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”
This “arbitrary rearrangement of riches,” he continued, strikes at both the security and confidence that people have in the economic system. He went on to explain that inflation turns consumers against capitalists—“profiteers,” in his words—when they see how those individuals accrue wealth while they suffer from inflation.
He then discussed inflation in the 1910s against the backdrop of war and revolution, and the social unrest that followed. “Lenin was certainly right,” he concluded. “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.”
Keynes’ economic writing ultimately gave birth to a “Keynesian” school of economics, and he personally helped negotiate the international postwar monetary order at the Bretton Woods conference following World War II.
But it was Keynes’ discussion of inflation that first put him on the map.
Debauched currency, 2020s style
As inflation gets worse, Keynes wrote, and the value of currency fluctuates unpredictably, the relationships between those who hold that currency and those who don't falls apart. “And the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery," he said.
Americans in the 2020s know a thing or two about a debauched currency.
Gasoline is at the heart of U.S. economic identity, with a hundred-year-old car culture forming the basis of American culture. With it now just shy of $5 per gallon nationwide, cue the unraveling?
Though multiple factors are to blame for the rising gas prices—lingering supply and demand disruptions from COVID, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy companies having problems increasing production, and the possibility of price gouging—consumers have started to complain. Just look at President Joe Biden’s plummeting approval rating and steady declines in the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, which reflects increasing public concern.
“The idea that we're going to be able to click a switch, bring down the cost of gasoline, it’s not likely in the near term,” President Joe Biden said at a press conference last week. Only a quarter of voters, however, believe that he’s handling rising gas prices well, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.
Conservative lawmakers are sinking their teeth into the issue. “In my state, the price of gas is so high that it would be cheaper to buy cocaine and just run everywhere,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) in a brief appearance on Fox News on Tuesday.
In 1919, Keynes wrote that though capitalists may bear the brunt of consumer anger, they’re merely a symptom of the economic system's wider failing. “The profiteers are a consequence and not a cause of rising prices,” wrote Keynes.
So how to solve it? Keynes says it’s ultimately up to the government to sort things out.
“If, however,” he wrote, “a government refrains from regulation and allows matters to take their course, essential commodities soon attain a level of price out of the reach of all but the rich, the worthlessness of the money becomes apparent, and the fraud upon the public can be concealed no longer.”