
美國目前的經濟形勢,類似于“選擇自己的冒險歷程”的狀況。
美國通脹率居高不下,但工資同樣上漲。2022年股價下跌,但自2020年以來依舊大幅上漲。很多人發出了經濟衰退的警告,但消費者依舊在大肆消費。盡管有各種積極的跡象,但似乎所有人都感覺經濟一團糟,就連藝人卡迪·B也對此感到苦惱,與珍妮特·耶倫爭論美國是否正在經歷經濟衰退。
目前的情況與2021年相去甚遠。當時,在新冠疫情衰退之后,美國總統喬·拜登已經找到了實現經濟復蘇的密碼。第三輪刺激計劃使美國人的儲蓄達到驚人的4.2萬億美元,刺激就業市場繁榮,使失業率降至史上最低水平。勞動者成為就業市場上的贏家,平均每個月有400萬人跳槽,尋找薪酬更高的工作。經濟刺激政策和工資上漲讓美國人手中積攢了大量現金,于是人們開始瘋狂消費,使美國進入了自1984年以來規模最大的一次經濟擴張。
但每一朵玫瑰花上都有尖刺。2022年,由于供應短缺,美國人依舊在等待他們幾個月前訂購的沙發,而中國疫情和俄烏沖突讓情況更加惡化。周五公布的消費物價指數清晰地顯示出美國面臨的最大問題是通脹,目前始終維持在40年最高水平。
盡管如此,在如此瘋狂的經濟形勢下,依舊有人受益。你或許就是其中之一。
“樂觀差距”
去年大部分時間,當經濟繁榮遭遇許多不同尋常的趨勢,例如大辭職浪潮,有一件奇怪的事情發生:盡管經濟表現超出預期,但上個月的消費者信心卻降至十年最低。與此同時,參與調查的美國人又表示他們過得不錯。這就是所謂的“樂觀差距”,而且幾十年來,經濟學家們因為這種情況傷透了腦筋。
隨著通脹持續攀升,面對經濟衰退的陰影,這種樂觀心態可能會開始減弱。雖然耶倫在經濟領域擁有數十年的經驗,但卡迪·B的觀點卻很有道理。
通貨膨脹抵消了因大辭職浪潮帶來的工資上漲,而且許多美國人變得比以前更加貧窮。本周,通脹率加速提高到8.6%,這個問題似乎在短期內難以得到解決。美聯儲試圖通過加息降低通脹,卻引發了對于經濟衰退的恐慌。
有兩類美國人將跑贏高通脹和即將到來的經濟衰退。
房東和跳槽者成為贏家
在當前的經濟形勢下高枕無憂的美國人,都是疫情期間出現的兩大最繁榮市場的受益者,分別是:房地產和就業市場。
遠程辦公者從狹窄的城市公寓搬到寬敞的郊區,導致房價暴漲,按照Housingwire首席分析師羅根·莫塔沙米對《財富》雜志的說法,房價暴漲導致房地產市場“嚴重不健康”。
但這也使業主的財富大幅增加,可動用凈值達到近10萬億美元。到去年年底,42%的業主被認為擁有高價值房產(抵押貸款占房屋價值的比例不超過一半),相比之下,2020年年底這一比例為30%。
而曾經在大辭職浪潮中辭職的工作者,如果足夠幸運獲得的加薪高于40年最高水平通脹,他們的收入同樣將高于平均水平。美國經濟咨商會(Conference Board)首席經濟學家埃里克·倫德曾在1月底告訴《財富》雜志:“今年工資水平將繼續大幅上漲。這個趨勢不會結束。”
美國經濟咨商會對近2,600名美國上班族的調查發現,接近三分之一在疫情期間開始從事新工作的受訪者收入增加了30%以上。開市客(Costco)、亞馬遜(Amazon)和塔吉特(Target)過去幾年都提高了最低工資,連工薪階層的工資也在上漲。
就業市場中有大量職位空缺特別是初級崗位,這尤其讓Z世代受益匪淺。人手不足增加了對人才的需求,使應屆畢業生在找工作時有更多選擇和要求。
租房者、富人和窮人成為輸家
其他美國人對過熱的經濟感覺并不好。比如,在96%的區域房地產市場估值過高[根據穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)為《財富》雜志統計的數據]的情況下試圖買房的購房者。房屋中位數售價創歷史新高,中產階級擁有房產的夢想隨之破滅。
相反,他們要努力支付史上最高的租金。在5月的CPI中,房租占40%。這尤其對紐約等大城市的居民來說是壞消息。現在,紐約市民的收入需要達到16萬美元,才能在曼哈頓租得起一套普通一居室。
然而對通脹感受最強烈的是低收入家庭,因為低收入家庭生活必需品消費的占比更高。科爾士百貨(Kohl’s)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)都發現,顧客開始減少支出,選擇更經濟實惠的替代品,或者干脆不購買某些商品。
來自俄勒岡州波特蘭的一位單親媽媽坦雅·巴勒姆,為了抵消食品成本上漲的影響,決定取消流媒體訂閱服務。巴勒姆在5月告訴《財富》雜志:“我們無論如何無法享受奢侈的生活。我們只是中產階級。”然而通脹上漲迫使她和其他許多人更加嚴格地制定預算和改變消費行為。
任何社會階層都無法避免通脹的影響,使美國人的財富較六個月前已經縮水。美聯儲的最新《美國金融賬戶報告》(Financial Accounts of the United States)顯示,由于投資價值下降,從1月到3月,美國家庭財產凈值減少了5,000億美元。如果不是房屋業主的凈值提高,家庭財富縮水的程度可能更加嚴重。
這對于所有人來說都不是好消息,尤其是富人,因為他們會承受更大的損失。隨著加密貨幣和股市暴跌,截至5月,全球500大富豪損失了1萬億美元。有豐厚儲蓄的退休人員,也在眼睜睜看著自己的養老金因為通貨膨脹不斷縮水,甚至有人考慮重新就業。
但通脹并沒有阻止富人大肆消費。持續消費使通脹不斷上漲,再加上美聯儲加息,可能讓美國陷入經濟衰退。到那時,即使當前經濟下的贏家也將蒙受損失。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
美國目前的經濟形勢,類似于“選擇自己的冒險歷程”的狀況。
美國通脹率居高不下,但工資同樣上漲。2022年股價下跌,但自2020年以來依舊大幅上漲。很多人發出了經濟衰退的警告,但消費者依舊在大肆消費。盡管有各種積極的跡象,但似乎所有人都感覺經濟一團糟,就連藝人卡迪·B也對此感到苦惱,與珍妮特·耶倫爭論美國是否正在經歷經濟衰退。
目前的情況與2021年相去甚遠。當時,在新冠疫情衰退之后,美國總統喬·拜登已經找到了實現經濟復蘇的密碼。第三輪刺激計劃使美國人的儲蓄達到驚人的4.2萬億美元,刺激就業市場繁榮,使失業率降至史上最低水平。勞動者成為就業市場上的贏家,平均每個月有400萬人跳槽,尋找薪酬更高的工作。經濟刺激政策和工資上漲讓美國人手中積攢了大量現金,于是人們開始瘋狂消費,使美國進入了自1984年以來規模最大的一次經濟擴張。
但每一朵玫瑰花上都有尖刺。2022年,由于供應短缺,美國人依舊在等待他們幾個月前訂購的沙發,而中國疫情和俄烏沖突讓情況更加惡化。周五公布的消費物價指數清晰地顯示出美國面臨的最大問題是通脹,目前始終維持在40年最高水平。
盡管如此,在如此瘋狂的經濟形勢下,依舊有人受益。你或許就是其中之一。
“樂觀差距”
去年大部分時間,當經濟繁榮遭遇許多不同尋常的趨勢,例如大辭職浪潮,有一件奇怪的事情發生:盡管經濟表現超出預期,但上個月的消費者信心卻降至十年最低。與此同時,參與調查的美國人又表示他們過得不錯。這就是所謂的“樂觀差距”,而且幾十年來,經濟學家們因為這種情況傷透了腦筋。
隨著通脹持續攀升,面對經濟衰退的陰影,這種樂觀心態可能會開始減弱。雖然耶倫在經濟領域擁有數十年的經驗,但卡迪·B的觀點卻很有道理。
通貨膨脹抵消了因大辭職浪潮帶來的工資上漲,而且許多美國人變得比以前更加貧窮。本周,通脹率加速提高到8.6%,這個問題似乎在短期內難以得到解決。美聯儲試圖通過加息降低通脹,卻引發了對于經濟衰退的恐慌。
有兩類美國人將跑贏高通脹和即將到來的經濟衰退。
房東和跳槽者成為贏家
在當前的經濟形勢下高枕無憂的美國人,都是疫情期間出現的兩大最繁榮市場的受益者,分別是:房地產和就業市場。
遠程辦公者從狹窄的城市公寓搬到寬敞的郊區,導致房價暴漲,按照Housingwire首席分析師羅根·莫塔沙米對《財富》雜志的說法,房價暴漲導致房地產市場“嚴重不健康”。
但這也使業主的財富大幅增加,可動用凈值達到近10萬億美元。到去年年底,42%的業主被認為擁有高價值房產(抵押貸款占房屋價值的比例不超過一半),相比之下,2020年年底這一比例為30%。
而曾經在大辭職浪潮中辭職的工作者,如果足夠幸運獲得的加薪高于40年最高水平通脹,他們的收入同樣將高于平均水平。美國經濟咨商會(Conference Board)首席經濟學家埃里克·倫德曾在1月底告訴《財富》雜志:“今年工資水平將繼續大幅上漲。這個趨勢不會結束。”
美國經濟咨商會對近2,600名美國上班族的調查發現,接近三分之一在疫情期間開始從事新工作的受訪者收入增加了30%以上。開市客(Costco)、亞馬遜(Amazon)和塔吉特(Target)過去幾年都提高了最低工資,連工薪階層的工資也在上漲。
就業市場中有大量職位空缺特別是初級崗位,這尤其讓Z世代受益匪淺。人手不足增加了對人才的需求,使應屆畢業生在找工作時有更多選擇和要求。
租房者、富人和窮人成為輸家
其他美國人對過熱的經濟感覺并不好。比如,在96%的區域房地產市場估值過高[根據穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)為《財富》雜志統計的數據]的情況下試圖買房的購房者。房屋中位數售價創歷史新高,中產階級擁有房產的夢想隨之破滅。
相反,他們要努力支付史上最高的租金。在5月的CPI中,房租占40%。這尤其對紐約等大城市的居民來說是壞消息。現在,紐約市民的收入需要達到16萬美元,才能在曼哈頓租得起一套普通一居室。
然而對通脹感受最強烈的是低收入家庭,因為低收入家庭生活必需品消費的占比更高。科爾士百貨(Kohl’s)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)都發現,顧客開始減少支出,選擇更經濟實惠的替代品,或者干脆不購買某些商品。
來自俄勒岡州波特蘭的一位單親媽媽坦雅·巴勒姆,為了抵消食品成本上漲的影響,決定取消流媒體訂閱服務。巴勒姆在5月告訴《財富》雜志:“我們無論如何無法享受奢侈的生活。我們只是中產階級。”然而通脹上漲迫使她和其他許多人更加嚴格地制定預算和改變消費行為。
任何社會階層都無法避免通脹的影響,使美國人的財富較六個月前已經縮水。美聯儲的最新《美國金融賬戶報告》(Financial Accounts of the United States)顯示,由于投資價值下降,從1月到3月,美國家庭財產凈值減少了5,000億美元。如果不是房屋業主的凈值提高,家庭財富縮水的程度可能更加嚴重。
這對于所有人來說都不是好消息,尤其是富人,因為他們會承受更大的損失。隨著加密貨幣和股市暴跌,截至5月,全球500大富豪損失了1萬億美元。有豐厚儲蓄的退休人員,也在眼睜睜看著自己的養老金因為通貨膨脹不斷縮水,甚至有人考慮重新就業。
但通脹并沒有阻止富人大肆消費。持續消費使通脹不斷上漲,再加上美聯儲加息,可能讓美國陷入經濟衰退。到那時,即使當前經濟下的贏家也將蒙受損失。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Today’s economy is a choose-your-own-adventure situation.
Inflation is high, but so are wages. Stocks are down in 2022, but still up substantially since 2020. Recession warnings abound, but consumers are still spending like mad. But despite all the positive signs, the economy kind of sucks for almost everyone—even Cardi B is feeling the pinch, arguing with Janet Yellen about whether a recession is under way.
It’s a far cry from 2021, when it seemed like President Joe Biden had cracked the economic comeback code following the coronavirus recession. A third round of stimulus checks left Americans sitting atop a whopping $4.2 trillion in savings and supercharged a jobs boom that led to record-low unemployment rates. Employees have been winning the labor market as an average of 4 million workers have quit their jobs every month for roles offering better pay. Flush with cash from stimulus and higher wages, Americans unleashed a major shopping spree, sending the U.S. into its biggest economic expansion since 1984.
But every rose has its thorn, and in 2022, people are still waiting for the couch they ordered months ago thanks to an ongoing supply shortage, which lockdowns in China and the Russia-Ukraine war just exacerbated. As Friday’s CPI print makes clear, the biggest pain point is inflation, which keeps on setting fresh 40-year highs.
There are still some people who are winners in the crazy economy, though. Maybe you’re one of them.
The ‘optimism gap’
For much of the last year, as the booming economy coincided with several unusual trends like the Great Resignation, a strange thing happened: Despite the economy outperforming expectations, consumer sentiment dropped to a decade low last month. But in the same surveys, Americans report they are doing fine themselves. This is called the “optimism gap,” and economists have puzzled over it for decades.
As inflation continues to soar and a recession looms, that optimism will likely start to wane. Yellen might have decades of economic experience, but Cardi B definitely has a point.
Inflation is gobbling up some of those Great Resignation raises, and a lot of Americans are just poorer than they used to be. Given that inflation accelerated to 8.6% just this week, it’s a problem that doesn’t seem to be abating anytime soon. The Fed is trying to cool things down by raising rates, but that is prompting widespread fears of recession.
Two clear groups of Americans are beating the high prices and the coming downturn.
Homeowners and job hoppers are winning the economy
The Americans sitting pretty in the economy right now have benefited from the pandemic’s two biggest booms: housing and jobs.
Remote workers drove housing prices skyward after fleeing cramped city apartments for the spacious suburbs, fueling what Housingwire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami described to Fortune as a “savagely unhealthy” housing market.
But it’s made homeowners richer than ever, with nearly $10 trillion in equity available. By the end of last year, 42% of homeowners were considered equity rich (their mortgages were half or less than half of their home value), compared to the 30% of homeowners who were at the end of 2020.
Workers who joined the Great Resignation are also rolling in the dough if they were lucky enough to receive pay bumps greater than even 40-year-high inflation. “We're going to continue to see pretty strong wage growth this year,” Erik Lundh, principal economist at the Conference Board, told Fortune at the end of January. “It's not going away.”
A Conference Board survey of nearly 2,600 U.S. office workers found that nearly a third of those who began a new job during the pandemic are earning over 30% more. Even the working class is benefiting from higher wages, with Costco, Amazon, and Target raised minimum wages over the past year.
Gen Zers in particular are cashing in on a job market rife with record openings, especially for entry-level jobs. The labor shortage has spurred a demand for talent that has enabled new graduates to be more selective and demanding when choosing a job.
Renters, the rich, and the poor are losing the economy
For the rest of America, an overheated economy isn’t feeling so hot. Just ask the aspiring homeowners trying to buy a house during a time when 96% of regional housing markets are overvalued, per data Moody’s Analytics pulled for Fortune. With median home sale prices hitting record highs, the dream of middle class homeownership no longer exists.
They’re instead stuck shelling out for all-time high rents, which are responsible for 40% of May’s CPI read. It’s especially bad for the big city urbanites in places like New York City, who now need to earn $160,000 to afford median one-bedroom rent in Manhattan.
But it’s the lower-income households who are feeling the burn of inflation the most, because they spend a greater share of their total spending on necessities. Both Kohl’s and Walmart noted that customers were starting to reel in their spending by shifting to more affordable alternatives or avoiding some purchases altogether.
Tanya Barham, a single mother based in Portland, Ore., made the decision to cancel her streaming subscriptions in order to help offset rising food costs.“ We don't live an extravagant life by any means. We're solidly middle class,” Barham told Fortune in May. But rising inflation has forced her, and many others, to take a hard look at their budgets and make changes.
Inflation has left no social class untouched, making Americans worth less than they were six months ago. The Federal Reserve’s latest report on the Financial Accounts of the United States found that household net worth fell by $500 billion from January to March due to a drop in investment value. If it weren’t for the home-owning winners raking in equity, that wealth drop would have been even more drastic.
It’s not good news for anyone, especially the rich, who have more money to lose. As both crypto and stocks plunge, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1 trillion as of May. Even retirees with fat savings are watching inflation eat away at their nest eggs, prompting some to consider returning to work.
But inflation hasn’t prevented the rich from splurging. Consistent spending keeps driving up inflation and the Fed to push up interest rates, which could send us into a recession. And then, even the economic winners end up losing.