美國西部將出現用電荒
Tristan Bove
2022-05-25
一家電力運營商警告說出現了“異常”情況，因此，今年夏天，美國西部地區出現電力短缺和停電的可能性越來越大。
長期干旱、供應鏈限制和其他威脅導致國際監管機構北美電力可靠性公司（North American Electric Reliability Corporation）得出結論：今年夏天，美國西部和加拿大幾個地區面臨嚴重的能源短缺風險。
這家機構的可靠性評估經理馬克·奧爾森在一份聲明中說：“生產制造業從設備和操作人員從兩方面入手做好了應對夏季挑戰的準備。然而，持續的極端干旱及隨之出現的異常天氣模式，往往會給電力供需帶來額外壓力。”
北美西部目前正在陷入北美大陸數百年來最嚴重的特大干旱，部分是由氣候變化引起的。干旱狀況再加上夏季高溫，預計將導致美國的得克薩斯州等州出現極端高溫。
據北美電力可靠性公司稱，極端高溫將導致夏季高峰期電力需求高于平均水平，這可能會讓能源系統變得緊張，而能源系統已經面臨稀缺燃料和其他資源的壓力。
該機構指出，輸電線路建設和維修項目已經因為供應鏈限制而推遲。對于一些發電廠，例如燃煤電廠，燃料供應緩慢使得基礎設施不太能夠滿足夏季高峰期的電力需求。由于今年的積雪量低于正常水平，占全國發電量7%以上的替代水電供應商在今年夏天的能源產出也可能較低。
北美電力可靠性公司表示，其他因素，包括活躍野火季節夏季和秋季帶來的威脅，可能導致停電的風險更高。
美國西部的野火季節似乎已經提前開始，得克薩斯州和新墨西哥州已經發生了幾起大火。根據天氣預報AccuWeather的分析，預計2022年野火季節的影響將“高于正常水平”，如果像北美電力可靠性公司預測的那樣，野火季節延長至秋季，它可能就會威脅大電力系統的可靠性。
奧爾森指出：“今年夏天，受影響地區的電網運營商將需要運用所有可用工具來維持系統平衡。”該報告列舉了過去一年對關鍵輸電基礎設施進行的重大改進，比如得克薩斯州的ERCOT電網，這可能有助于避免災難性的能源短缺，但警告監管機構和公用事業公司對其電力容量和外部條件保持警惕。
奧爾森說：“從長遠來看，系統規劃者和資源充足性利益相關者需要牢記像這樣的潛在異常天氣條件，以便我們持續擁有可靠的彈性大電力系統。”（財富中文網）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
一家電力運營商警告說出現了“異常”情況，因此，今年夏天，美國西部地區出現電力短缺和停電的可能性越來越大。
長期干旱、供應鏈限制和其他威脅導致國際監管機構北美電力可靠性公司（North American Electric Reliability Corporation）得出結論：今年夏天，美國西部和加拿大幾個地區面臨嚴重的能源短缺風險。
這家機構的可靠性評估經理馬克·奧爾森在一份聲明中說：“生產制造業從設備和操作人員從兩方面入手做好了應對夏季挑戰的準備。然而，持續的極端干旱及隨之出現的異常天氣模式，往往會給電力供需帶來額外壓力。”
北美西部目前正在陷入北美大陸數百年來最嚴重的特大干旱，部分是由氣候變化引起的。干旱狀況再加上夏季高溫，預計將導致美國的得克薩斯州等州出現極端高溫。
據北美電力可靠性公司稱，極端高溫將導致夏季高峰期電力需求高于平均水平，這可能會讓能源系統變得緊張，而能源系統已經面臨稀缺燃料和其他資源的壓力。
該機構指出，輸電線路建設和維修項目已經因為供應鏈限制而推遲。對于一些發電廠，例如燃煤電廠，燃料供應緩慢使得基礎設施不太能夠滿足夏季高峰期的電力需求。由于今年的積雪量低于正常水平，占全國發電量7%以上的替代水電供應商在今年夏天的能源產出也可能較低。
北美電力可靠性公司表示，其他因素，包括活躍野火季節夏季和秋季帶來的威脅，可能導致停電的風險更高。
美國西部的野火季節似乎已經提前開始，得克薩斯州和新墨西哥州已經發生了幾起大火。根據天氣預報AccuWeather的分析，預計2022年野火季節的影響將“高于正常水平”，如果像北美電力可靠性公司預測的那樣，野火季節延長至秋季，它可能就會威脅大電力系統的可靠性。
奧爾森指出：“今年夏天，受影響地區的電網運營商將需要運用所有可用工具來維持系統平衡。”該報告列舉了過去一年對關鍵輸電基礎設施進行的重大改進，比如得克薩斯州的ERCOT電網，這可能有助于避免災難性的能源短缺，但警告監管機構和公用事業公司對其電力容量和外部條件保持警惕。
奧爾森說：“從長遠來看，系統規劃者和資源充足性利益相關者需要牢記像這樣的潛在異常天氣條件，以便我們持續擁有可靠的彈性大電力系統。”（財富中文網）
譯者：中慧言-王芳
Electricity shortages and blackouts are increasingly possible for the American West this summer, as an electrical operator warns of “out-of-the-ordinary” conditions.
A prolonged drought, supply-chain constraints, and other threats have led the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), an international regulatory body, to conclude that several regions in the western U.S. and Canada are at risk of severe energy shortfalls this summer.
“Industry prepares its equipment and operators for challenging summer conditions,” Mark Olson, manager of reliability assessments at NERC, said in a statement. “Persistent, extreme drought and its accompanying weather patterns, however, are out-of-the-ordinary and tend to create extra stresses on electricity supply and demand.”
The western half of North America is currently mired in the worst megadrought the continent has seen in hundreds of years, partly fueled by climate change. Drought conditions combined with high summer temperatures are expected to lead to instances of extreme heat in states such as Texas.
Extreme heat would contribute to higher-than-average peak power demands over the summer, according to NERC, which could strain energy systems already stressed by scarce fuel and other resources.
NERC notes that construction and repair projects for transmission lines have been delayed by supply-chain constraints. And for some power plants, such as coal plants, slow fuel deliveries make it less likely that infrastructure will be able to meet higher peak demand during the summer. Alternative hydroelectric power suppliers, which generate more than 7% of the country’s electricity, are also likely to have lower energy output this summer due to a below-normal snowpack this year.
Other factors, including the possibility of cybersecurity threats from Russian disruptors and an active summer and fall wildfire season, could lead to an even higher risk of blackouts, according to NERC.
Meanwhile, wildfire season in the American West appears to have begun early, with several large fires already rampaging through Texas and New Mexico. The impact of the 2022 wildfire season is expected to be “above normal,” according to an analysis by weather forecaster AccuWeather, and should the season stretch into fall, as NERC predicts, it could threaten the reliability of bulk power systems.
“Grid operators in affected areas will need all available tools to keep the system in balance this summer,” Olson said. The report cited some important improvements that have been made over the past year to critical transmission infrastructure, such as Texas’ ERCOT grid, which could help avoid catastrophic energy shortfalls, but warns regulators and utilities to remain vigilant over their electricity capacity and how external conditions play out.
“Over the longer term,” Olson said, “system planners and resource adequacy stakeholders need to keep potentially abnormal weather conditions like these in mind so that we continue to have a reliable and resilient bulk power system.”
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