塔蒂阿娜·霍莫諾夫去雜貨店采買時,總是會在購物清單之外多買上一包蜜蘭諾(Milano)品牌的餅干。
這種夾心餅干中間的夾心往往是一層薄薄的巧克力,售價為3.89美元,實在是讓人難以拒絕。但如今,紐約大學的經濟學和公共政策教授霍莫諾夫卻發現自己在貨架旁猶豫了。由于通貨膨脹率已經飆升至40年來最高水平,這款由Pepperidge Farm公司生產的美食價格已經漲到了4.19美元。雖然只漲了幾毛錢——和賬單總數比起來實在是微不足道——但已經足以讓霍莫諾夫在把餅干放進購物車時停下來想一想。
并不是只有霍莫諾夫遇到類似的情況。自2021年年底起,從餅干到汽車再到服裝,幾乎所有商品都大幅漲價,從那時起,備受關注的通脹指標——消費者價格指數開始呈上升趨勢。通貨膨脹一直是美國中低收入家庭的財務噩夢,這一次,噩夢已經開始顯現。對任何一個人來說,如果每加侖牛奶要多花1美元,而你每周買一次牛奶,那一年就多花52美元。換句話說,這筆錢可以買一份圣誕禮物、一件新衣服,或者和女朋友去看一次電影。“我們正處于前所未有的通脹中。”霍莫諾夫向《財富》雜志表示,“這不是理所應當的,人們會感覺到有點痛苦。”
行為經濟學家說,美國人已經在經歷一場延續兩年并且仍然在肆虐的疫情所帶來的持續性精神劇痛,他們會在內心更深處感到沮喪。
“人類天生就能夠覺察變化。”賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓商學院研究情緒與談判過程的管理學教授莫里斯·施韋策說,尤其是在事情進展不順利的時候,“這時我們才可以真正解除自動駕駛模式,專注于當下,找出問題所在。我們的大腦知道一加侖牛奶賣2美元,一加侖汽油賣3美元,或者說我們每周去一趟超市要花200美元。最近的情況是,我們看到了一些變化,大腦會因此想道:‘嘿,錢花多了,有什么地方不太對勁。’然后我們就被迫從滿足的情緒中轉向擔憂。”
人類以及卷尾猴在面對等量損失和收獲時,前者受到的傷害確實要遠多于后者收獲的興奮,這是一種被稱為損失厭惡的認知偏差。
舉個例子,你是否愿意冒著輸掉100美元的風險去參與一場或許會贏100美元的賭局?卡內基梅隆大學的教授喬治·勒文施泰因表示,大多數人都會拒絕。他說,只有當獎金接近200美元時,人們才會認為這種風險回報是值得的,即使這樣,也只有大約一半人會試一試。在股市、政治、甚至是如何讓購物者使用環保購物袋的問題上,這都是一個無處不在的難題。例如,2018年,紐約大學的霍莫諾夫研究了消費者對不同政策的反應:一種是使用可重復使用的塑料袋能夠獲得5美分獎勵,另一種是使用一次性塑料袋要征收5美分稅。果不其然,研究結果顯示,獎金“幾乎沒有對塑料袋的使用產生任何影響”,而征稅導致對一次性塑料袋的需求減少了一半。現在想一下,如果是同樣的原理用在越來越貴的牛奶上呢?
“便宜的牛奶讓我快樂,但只是快樂一點點。”霍莫諾夫說,“如果牛奶變貴了,即使差價是一樣的,卻會讓我真的很生氣。因為,和我以前支付的價格相比,感覺上是一種損失。”
而對霍莫諾夫來說,要花4塊多美元買蜜蘭諾品牌的餅干甚至更痛苦,原因是所謂的“左位偏差”,這種現象指的是人們在看價格時會過度關注最左邊第一位數字的大小。(同樣的情況還出現在二手車的里程、SAT分數,或年級平均分等。)
實際上,正是因為左位偏差,李維斯(Levi’s)才把牛仔褲定價49.99美元而不是50美元,亞利桑那(AriZona)品牌的冰茶才賣99美分而不是1美元,麥當勞(McDonald’s)的巨無霸(Big Mac)售價3.99美元而不是4美元,因為如果最左邊的數字調高了,消費者會對這種價格變化感到難以接受。因此,當米蘭餅干突破4美元的門檻時,像霍莫諾夫這樣的消費者就會注意到。“從2.89美元漲到2.98美元感覺沒有變化。但從2.98美元漲到3美元,感覺像是漲價了。”霍莫諾夫說。她還說,今天在雜貨店里,“感覺自己都快被左位偏見淹沒了”。
想弄明白損失厭惡背后的原理也沒有那么容易。2010年的一項研究表明,從臨床的角度看,大腦的情緒中心杏仁核“在人類決策時,對產生厭惡損失的情緒發揮了必要作用”。然而,研究發現,一個人的財富、權力地位、文化背景等因素也會影響其在決策時對損失的厭惡程度。但總而言之,研究人員似乎一致認為,正如一個小組在2016年的一項研究中得出的結論,厭惡損失似乎是“人類決策過程的內源性特征”。
盡管如此,美國人到現在還是愿意平息內部反對者的聲音,推進支出。
密歇根大學的消費者信心指數在今年3月觸及十年新低后僅經歷數周,就在4月迅速反彈。美國銀行研究所的數據顯示,4月前8天信用卡和借記卡消費同比增長了15%,而在年收入不足5萬美元的持卡人中,4月的家庭消費與2019年同期相比跳漲逾33%。美國銀行的信用卡和借記卡持卡人一季度在旅游和娛樂方面的支出同比增長了57%。
然而,新冠疫情對全體美國人的影響絕不是單一的。施韋策說,可能在一些人外出消費時,還有一些人仍然被困在家里,想盡辦法讓自己的生活物資可以再多撐幾天。
“過去兩年,人們的經歷非常不平衡。新冠疫情期間,一些人的職業生涯完好無損,還實現了資產增值,財務狀況良好。還有一些人卻經受了毀滅性的損失。”這位賓夕法尼亞大學的教授在后續的一封電子郵件中寫道。“存在著巨大的不平等。”
卡內基梅隆大學的勒文施泰因說,即便是那些在新冠疫情期間設法為自己爭取到了更高工資的人,也可能會感受到價格上漲的痛苦——如果不是比以前更痛苦的話。“這種感覺就像是,他們終于爭取到的東西被奪走了。”勒文施泰因告訴《財富》雜志,“盡管如果還拿著同樣的工資卻遭到通脹的打擊,這種情況實際上更糟,但我很能理解,明明實際情況變好了,感覺卻更差了,因為就好像你終于等來了渴望已久的東西,現在卻又被奪走了。”
這種沮喪不會永遠持續下去。最終,消費者會適應這種已經成為新常態的通脹——如果價格保持上漲的話。而如果價格還會再次落地,等到那一天,損失厭惡的原理大概率意味著,與最近幾個月的騷動相比,那時人們的反應將相對溫和。
“我們的記憶會褪色。”施韋策說,“我們會記住一段緊張、糟糕的經歷,但在對某件事情做出評價時,我們往往對終點更加敏感。看電影時,我們會更在意它的結局。去餐館吃飯時,在我們的腦海里,那頓飯最后的時刻會比過程中的一些瞬間簡單相加更重要。”(財富中文網)
譯者:Agatha
塔蒂阿娜·霍莫諾夫去雜貨店采買時,總是會在購物清單之外多買上一包蜜蘭諾(Milano)品牌的餅干。
這種夾心餅干中間的夾心往往是一層薄薄的巧克力,售價為3.89美元,實在是讓人難以拒絕。但如今,紐約大學的經濟學和公共政策教授霍莫諾夫卻發現自己在貨架旁猶豫了。由于通貨膨脹率已經飆升至40年來最高水平,這款由Pepperidge Farm公司生產的美食價格已經漲到了4.19美元。雖然只漲了幾毛錢——和賬單總數比起來實在是微不足道——但已經足以讓霍莫諾夫在把餅干放進購物車時停下來想一想。
并不是只有霍莫諾夫遇到類似的情況。自2021年年底起,從餅干到汽車再到服裝,幾乎所有商品都大幅漲價,從那時起,備受關注的通脹指標——消費者價格指數開始呈上升趨勢。通貨膨脹一直是美國中低收入家庭的財務噩夢,這一次,噩夢已經開始顯現。對任何一個人來說,如果每加侖牛奶要多花1美元,而你每周買一次牛奶,那一年就多花52美元。換句話說,這筆錢可以買一份圣誕禮物、一件新衣服,或者和女朋友去看一次電影。“我們正處于前所未有的通脹中。”霍莫諾夫向《財富》雜志表示,“這不是理所應當的,人們會感覺到有點痛苦。”
行為經濟學家說,美國人已經在經歷一場延續兩年并且仍然在肆虐的疫情所帶來的持續性精神劇痛,他們會在內心更深處感到沮喪。
“人類天生就能夠覺察變化。”賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓商學院研究情緒與談判過程的管理學教授莫里斯·施韋策說,尤其是在事情進展不順利的時候,“這時我們才可以真正解除自動駕駛模式,專注于當下,找出問題所在。我們的大腦知道一加侖牛奶賣2美元,一加侖汽油賣3美元,或者說我們每周去一趟超市要花200美元。最近的情況是,我們看到了一些變化,大腦會因此想道:‘嘿,錢花多了,有什么地方不太對勁。’然后我們就被迫從滿足的情緒中轉向擔憂。”
人類以及卷尾猴在面對等量損失和收獲時,前者受到的傷害確實要遠多于后者收獲的興奮,這是一種被稱為損失厭惡的認知偏差。
舉個例子,你是否愿意冒著輸掉100美元的風險去參與一場或許會贏100美元的賭局?卡內基梅隆大學的教授喬治·勒文施泰因表示,大多數人都會拒絕。他說,只有當獎金接近200美元時,人們才會認為這種風險回報是值得的,即使這樣,也只有大約一半人會試一試。在股市、政治、甚至是如何讓購物者使用環保購物袋的問題上,這都是一個無處不在的難題。例如,2018年,紐約大學的霍莫諾夫研究了消費者對不同政策的反應:一種是使用可重復使用的塑料袋能夠獲得5美分獎勵,另一種是使用一次性塑料袋要征收5美分稅。果不其然,研究結果顯示,獎金“幾乎沒有對塑料袋的使用產生任何影響”,而征稅導致對一次性塑料袋的需求減少了一半。現在想一下,如果是同樣的原理用在越來越貴的牛奶上呢?
“便宜的牛奶讓我快樂,但只是快樂一點點。”霍莫諾夫說,“如果牛奶變貴了,即使差價是一樣的,卻會讓我真的很生氣。因為,和我以前支付的價格相比,感覺上是一種損失。”
而對霍莫諾夫來說,要花4塊多美元買蜜蘭諾品牌的餅干甚至更痛苦,原因是所謂的“左位偏差”,這種現象指的是人們在看價格時會過度關注最左邊第一位數字的大小。(同樣的情況還出現在二手車的里程、SAT分數,或年級平均分等。)
實際上,正是因為左位偏差,李維斯(Levi’s)才把牛仔褲定價49.99美元而不是50美元,亞利桑那(AriZona)品牌的冰茶才賣99美分而不是1美元,麥當勞(McDonald’s)的巨無霸(Big Mac)售價3.99美元而不是4美元,因為如果最左邊的數字調高了,消費者會對這種價格變化感到難以接受。因此,當米蘭餅干突破4美元的門檻時,像霍莫諾夫這樣的消費者就會注意到。“從2.89美元漲到2.98美元感覺沒有變化。但從2.98美元漲到3美元,感覺像是漲價了。”霍莫諾夫說。她還說,今天在雜貨店里,“感覺自己都快被左位偏見淹沒了”。
想弄明白損失厭惡背后的原理也沒有那么容易。2010年的一項研究表明,從臨床的角度看,大腦的情緒中心杏仁核“在人類決策時,對產生厭惡損失的情緒發揮了必要作用”。然而,研究發現,一個人的財富、權力地位、文化背景等因素也會影響其在決策時對損失的厭惡程度。但總而言之,研究人員似乎一致認為,正如一個小組在2016年的一項研究中得出的結論,厭惡損失似乎是“人類決策過程的內源性特征”。
盡管如此,美國人到現在還是愿意平息內部反對者的聲音,推進支出。
密歇根大學的消費者信心指數在今年3月觸及十年新低后僅經歷數周,就在4月迅速反彈。美國銀行研究所的數據顯示,4月前8天信用卡和借記卡消費同比增長了15%,而在年收入不足5萬美元的持卡人中,4月的家庭消費與2019年同期相比跳漲逾33%。美國銀行的信用卡和借記卡持卡人一季度在旅游和娛樂方面的支出同比增長了57%。
然而,新冠疫情對全體美國人的影響絕不是單一的。施韋策說,可能在一些人外出消費時,還有一些人仍然被困在家里,想盡辦法讓自己的生活物資可以再多撐幾天。
“過去兩年,人們的經歷非常不平衡。新冠疫情期間,一些人的職業生涯完好無損,還實現了資產增值,財務狀況良好。還有一些人卻經受了毀滅性的損失。”這位賓夕法尼亞大學的教授在后續的一封電子郵件中寫道。“存在著巨大的不平等。”
卡內基梅隆大學的勒文施泰因說,即便是那些在新冠疫情期間設法為自己爭取到了更高工資的人,也可能會感受到價格上漲的痛苦——如果不是比以前更痛苦的話。“這種感覺就像是,他們終于爭取到的東西被奪走了。”勒文施泰因告訴《財富》雜志,“盡管如果還拿著同樣的工資卻遭到通脹的打擊,這種情況實際上更糟,但我很能理解,明明實際情況變好了,感覺卻更差了,因為就好像你終于等來了渴望已久的東西,現在卻又被奪走了。”
這種沮喪不會永遠持續下去。最終,消費者會適應這種已經成為新常態的通脹——如果價格保持上漲的話。而如果價格還會再次落地,等到那一天,損失厭惡的原理大概率意味著,與最近幾個月的騷動相比,那時人們的反應將相對溫和。
“我們的記憶會褪色。”施韋策說,“我們會記住一段緊張、糟糕的經歷,但在對某件事情做出評價時,我們往往對終點更加敏感。看電影時,我們會更在意它的結局。去餐館吃飯時,在我們的腦海里,那頓飯最后的時刻會比過程中的一些瞬間簡單相加更重要。”(財富中文網)
譯者:Agatha
A package of Milano cookies used to be an obvious addition to Tatiana Homonoff’s grocery list.
Costing $3.89, the sandwiched cookies, held together by a thin layer of what is usually chocolate, were a treat too good to pass up. But Homonoff, a New York University professor who teaches economics and public policy, finds herself hesitating in the grocery store aisle nowadays. The price on the Pepperidge Farm-made delicacies has jumped to $4.19 thanks to the wrath of surging inflation that stands at its highest level in four decades. And while it’s only a few dimes—a minuscule amount in the grand scheme—it’s enough to make Homonoff pause while putting the cookies into her cart.
Homonoff’s not alone. Prices on just about everything, from cookies to cars to clothing, have jumped in tremendous fashion since late 2021, when the consumer price index, the widely watched inflation gauge, began to trend upward. Inflation has always been a financial nightmare for lower- and middle-income households in the U.S., a fact that has already started to bear some truth this time around. And for anyone, if you have to pay $1 more for a gallon of milk, and you buy milk once a week, that’s $52 a year. Or, in other terms, the cost of a Christmas present, or a new dress, or a trip to the movies with your girlfriend. “We’re in a time of unprecedented inflation,” Homonoff tells Fortune. “This isn’t just, this feels a little bit painful.”
Yet Americans, already dealing with the lasting mental anguish of living through a two-year-long pandemic that’s still kicking, are feeling the frustration on a more innate level as well, behavioral economists say.
“We are hardwired to detect changes,” especially for when things go poorly, says Maurice Schweitzer, a professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School who studies emotions and the negotiation process. “That’s when we really disengage our autopilot and become present focused to figure out what’s wrong. … In our minds, we know that a gallon of milk costs $2, a gallon of gas costs $3, or that we go to the grocery store and spend $200 each week. What’s happened very recently is that we’ve seen a change [and] something triggers in our brain that says, ‘Hey, this isn’t a good deal, something’s not right.’ And we get kicked out of complacency into a state of concern.”
People, as well as capuchin monkeys, do tend to feel the hurt of a loss far more than the excitement of a gain that’s of equal weight, based on a cognitive bias called loss aversion.
Take the case of whether you would be willing to risk losing $100 at a casino for the possibility of winning $100, for example. Most people, Carnegie Mellon University professor George Loewenstein says, would decline the offer. The pay-out would instead have to be closer to $200 for people to see the risk-reward as worth it, and, even then, only about half would take the odds, Loewenstein says. Between the stock market, politics, and even how to get shoppers to carry their groceries home in a green way, it’s a conundrum that can be applied to any number of applications. In 2018, for instance, NYU’s Homonoff set out to figure out how consumers responded to the promise of a 5-cent bonus for using reusable bags and to a 5-cent tax for using disposable bags. And surely enough, while the bonus had “almost no impact on bag use,” the tax resulted in demand for disposable bags being halved, according to the study. Now imagine the same principle but in the increasingly expensive milk aisle.
“Cheaper milk makes me happier, but only a little bit happier,” Homonoff says. “More expensive milk, even if it’s the same price change, makes me really angry. Because, relative to what I used to pay, that feels like a loss.”
For Homonoff, the pain is even worse with the now $4-plus Milano cookies because of what’s known as “left-digit bias,” a phenomenon of consumers placing an inordinate amount of weight on the number furthest to the left in a price (or for that matter, a used car’s mileage, an SAT score, or grade averages.)
Left-digit bias is, effectively, the reason why Levi’s sell a pair of jeans for $49.99 rather than $50, why an AriZona iced tea goes for 99 cents instead of $1, and why a Big Mac goes for $3.99 and not $4—because consumers have a hard time grappling with a price change once that number on the left ticks up. So when a product like Milano cookies breaks through that $4 threshold, shoppers like Homonoff take notice. “$2.89 to $2.98—that feels like the same. $2.98 to $3—that feels like an increase,” Homonoff says, before later adding, “I’m just drowning in left-digit bias” when at the grocery store today.
Understanding the why behind loss aversion is still a bit tricky. On a clinical level, the brain’s emotional center, the amygdala, has been found to play a “necessary role in generating loss aversion during human decision making,” according to a 2010 study. However, other considerations like a person’s wealth, status of power, and cultural background have all been found to play a part in how susceptible one’s decision-making process is to loss aversion as well. But, all told, researchers seem united in the fact that, as one group concluded in a 2016 study, loss aversion appears to be “an endogenous feature of human decision-making.”
Still, Americans have so far been willing to quiet the voice of their inner dissenter and push ahead with spending.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, just weeks after hitting a new decade-low in March, quickly bounced back in April. Data from the Bank of America Institute show that credit and debit card spending was up 15% in the first eight days of April versus the same period of last year, while card spending per household, among cardholders who bring in less than $50,000 annually, had jumped more than 33% in April from the same period of 2019. And Bank of America itself saw travel and entertainment spending from its credit and debit cardholders jump 57% in first quarter, versus the same period of 2021.
COVID-19 has been anything but unilateral in its implications for Americans as a whole, though. So, while some may be out spending, others are still stuck at home just trying to make their groceries last another couple of days, says Schweitzer.
“The experience people have had in the past two years is very uneven. Some people have emerged through the pandemic with their careers intact, with appreciated assets, and in a strong financial position. Others have suffered devastating losses,” the University of Pennsylvania professor wrote in a follow-up email. “There is great inequity.”
Even the workers who managed to negotiate higher salaries and wages for themselves over the course of the pandemic are likely feeling the pain of higher prices—if not more so than they would have before, Carnegie Mellon’s Loewenstein says. “It feels like something they finally achieved has been taken away from them,” Loewenstein tells Fortune. “Even though it’s worse—making the same wage and inflation hitting you—I can easily imagine that the better situation feels worse because it feels like this thing that’s finally come to you, that you’ve been longing for and now it’s being wrenched from you.”
The frustration won’t last forever. Eventually, consumers will adjust and settle in with inflation acting as their new normal—so long as prices are elevated. And if and when they do come back down to Earth, well, loss aversion would seem to imply the reaction will be relatively muted by comparison to the uproar that has taken place in recent months.
“Our memories will fade,” Schweitzer says. “We’ll remember an intense, bad experience, but, in terms of evaluating something, we’re sensitive to the end points. If we watch a movie, we really care about how it ended. If we go to a restaurant, the end of that meal weighs in our mind more than the simple sum of the moments.”