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美國房地產(chǎn)市場略有降溫,但搶購仍然激烈

Tristan Bove
2022-04-27

在樓市供應(yīng)有限的情況下,需求依舊高漲。

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隨著抵押貸款利率的上漲將更多的購房人擠出市場,美國的房地產(chǎn)市場終于開始降溫。但與新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前相比,競購依舊激烈,而且競價大戰(zhàn)在房價最高的部分地區(qū)繼續(xù)如火如荼地展開。

在過去兩年的大部分時間里,可出售房屋的庫存始終處在歷史最低水平。新冠疫情初期,在低抵押貸款利率和新遠(yuǎn)程辦公選擇的帶動下,購房人涌入房地產(chǎn)市場。這導(dǎo)致美國的待售房屋數(shù)量大幅減少,房屋庫存量始終未能完全恢復(fù)。

雖然從美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)的數(shù)據(jù)來看,目前的抵押貸款利率已經(jīng)很高了,從2021年4月的3.04%上漲到5.11%,但在供應(yīng)有限的情況下,需求依舊高漲。

早期跡象表明,更高的抵押貸款利率開始讓潛在購房人打消進(jìn)入市場的念頭,市場競爭略有緩解。但個別市場的競爭依舊激烈,而且競價大戰(zhàn)并未結(jié)束。

競爭減少

在線房地產(chǎn)公司Redfin的最新報告稱,今年3月的新房競購率從2月的67%小幅下降到65%。競購率是根據(jù)獲得超過一個出價的房源數(shù)量計算出來的。據(jù)該公司觀察,這是自2021年9月以來,該數(shù)字首次出現(xiàn)同比下降。

競爭減少是房地產(chǎn)市場開始降溫的一個關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。在2021年3月至2022年3月期間,房價上漲了19.2%,平均房價創(chuàng)下歷史紀(jì)錄。

自今年3月以來,美聯(lián)儲逐步加息以應(yīng)對惡性通貨膨脹,而且在4月,房價上漲近20%,令其他大宗商品8.5%的價格漲幅相形見絀。

競爭減少代表美聯(lián)儲的策略開始生效,但房源競爭率下降2%的變化幅度并不大,而且并不意味著近期內(nèi)房價會下跌。

競價大戰(zhàn)依舊存在

在價格持續(xù)上漲的房地產(chǎn)市場中,更高的抵押貸款利率意味著購房人更少,進(jìn)而將減少競爭。

不過雖然房屋需求下降,但庫存量依舊較低,而且待售房屋供應(yīng)遠(yuǎn)低于新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前的正常水平。

2020年4月,只有41%的房源吸引了競價,但現(xiàn)在這一比例卻達(dá)到65%。

雖然全國性的競價大戰(zhàn)在最近幾個月首次出現(xiàn)了降溫的跡象,但在某些地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)市場競爭依舊激烈。據(jù)Redfin統(tǒng)計,在圣何塞和波士頓等房價漲幅最大的幾個美國城市,競爭率超過了75%。這些城市的房價更高。許多城市的房地產(chǎn)市場逆勢而動,競價大戰(zhàn)不但沒有減少,反而愈演愈烈。

奧斯汀在2021年的房屋競爭率上漲超過21%,創(chuàng)下最大漲幅。圣安東尼奧房地產(chǎn)市場的競爭率也上漲了近16%,波士頓、圣何塞和邁阿密等城市發(fā)生競價大戰(zhàn)的頻率提高了超過6%。

全國競爭減少是個好跡象,表明房地產(chǎn)市場開始降溫,房價上漲可能很快減速。但如果市場上的房屋庫存不增加,出現(xiàn)競價大戰(zhàn)的頻率就不太可能恢復(fù)到新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前的正常水平。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

隨著抵押貸款利率的上漲將更多的購房人擠出市場,美國的房地產(chǎn)市場終于開始降溫。但與新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前相比,競購依舊激烈,而且競價大戰(zhàn)在房價最高的部分地區(qū)繼續(xù)如火如荼地展開。

在過去兩年的大部分時間里,可出售房屋的庫存始終處在歷史最低水平。新冠疫情初期,在低抵押貸款利率和新遠(yuǎn)程辦公選擇的帶動下,購房人涌入房地產(chǎn)市場。這導(dǎo)致美國的待售房屋數(shù)量大幅減少,房屋庫存量始終未能完全恢復(fù)。

雖然從美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)的數(shù)據(jù)來看,目前的抵押貸款利率已經(jīng)很高了,從2021年4月的3.04%上漲到5.11%,但在供應(yīng)有限的情況下,需求依舊高漲。

早期跡象表明,更高的抵押貸款利率開始讓潛在購房人打消進(jìn)入市場的念頭,市場競爭略有緩解。但個別市場的競爭依舊激烈,而且競價大戰(zhàn)并未結(jié)束。

競爭減少

在線房地產(chǎn)公司Redfin的最新報告稱,今年3月的新房競購率從2月的67%小幅下降到65%。競購率是根據(jù)獲得超過一個出價的房源數(shù)量計算出來的。據(jù)該公司觀察,這是自2021年9月以來,該數(shù)字首次出現(xiàn)同比下降。

競爭減少是房地產(chǎn)市場開始降溫的一個關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。在2021年3月至2022年3月期間,房價上漲了19.2%,平均房價創(chuàng)下歷史紀(jì)錄。

自今年3月以來,美聯(lián)儲逐步加息以應(yīng)對惡性通貨膨脹,而且在4月,房價上漲近20%,令其他大宗商品8.5%的價格漲幅相形見絀。

競爭減少代表美聯(lián)儲的策略開始生效,但房源競爭率下降2%的變化幅度并不大,而且并不意味著近期內(nèi)房價會下跌。

競價大戰(zhàn)依舊存在

在價格持續(xù)上漲的房地產(chǎn)市場中,更高的抵押貸款利率意味著購房人更少,進(jìn)而將減少競爭。

不過雖然房屋需求下降,但庫存量依舊較低,而且待售房屋供應(yīng)遠(yuǎn)低于新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前的正常水平。

2020年4月,只有41%的房源吸引了競價,但現(xiàn)在這一比例卻達(dá)到65%。

雖然全國性的競價大戰(zhàn)在最近幾個月首次出現(xiàn)了降溫的跡象,但在某些地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)市場競爭依舊激烈。據(jù)Redfin統(tǒng)計,在圣何塞和波士頓等房價漲幅最大的幾個美國城市,競爭率超過了75%。這些城市的房價更高。許多城市的房地產(chǎn)市場逆勢而動,競價大戰(zhàn)不但沒有減少,反而愈演愈烈。

奧斯汀在2021年的房屋競爭率上漲超過21%,創(chuàng)下最大漲幅。圣安東尼奧房地產(chǎn)市場的競爭率也上漲了近16%,波士頓、圣何塞和邁阿密等城市發(fā)生競價大戰(zhàn)的頻率提高了超過6%。

全國競爭減少是個好跡象,表明房地產(chǎn)市場開始降溫,房價上漲可能很快減速。但如果市場上的房屋庫存不增加,出現(xiàn)競價大戰(zhàn)的頻率就不太可能恢復(fù)到新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前的正常水平。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Housing in the U.S. is finally beginning to cool off, as higher mortgage rates begin to push more buyers out of the market. But competition is still much higher than it was pre-pandemic, and bidding wars continue to erupt in some of the country’s most expensive housing markets.

For most of the past two years, the inventory of available housing has been sitting at a historic low. Buyers flooded into the housing market in the pandemic’s early days, taking advantage of low mortgage rates and new remote work options. This massive influx of new homeowners severely depleted the supply of homes for sale in the U.S., and inventory has never fully recovered.

Although those mortgage rates are a lot higher now—up to 5.11%, from 3.04% in April 2021, according to Federal Reserve data—demand for a limited supply has stayed elevated.

Early signs show that higher mortgage rates are beginning to deter potential buyers from entering the market, as competition for housing is starting to ease slightly. But some markets remain highly competitive, and bidding wars aren’t over yet.

Less competition at last

The rate of competition for new homes—measured as the number of listings that attract more than one competing bid—fell slightly to 65% in March from nearly 67% in February, according to a new report by online real estate firm Redfin. It’s the first month-over-month decline the company has observed since September.

Less competition is a key indicator that the housing market is beginning to cool off. Home prices rose 19.2% between March 2021 and March of 2022, leading average home prices to hit a record high.

The Fed has been progressively raising interest rates since March to counter runaway inflation, and the nearly 20% increase in home prices eclipses the 8.5% price increase for other commodities observed in April.

Less competition indicates that the Fed’s strategy is working, but a 2% decrease in competitive listings is not a sea change, and does not necessarily mean lower housing prices in the near future.

Bidding wars are still here

Higher interest rates on mortgages should mean fewer buyers, and therefore less competition in the market driving up home prices.

But while demand for homes is falling, inventory also remains low, and the supply of homes for sale is still well below the pre-pandemic norm.

In April 2020, only 41% of listings ended up in bidding wars, compared to the 65% of home offers facing competition today.

And even though the national bidding war rate is showing the first signs of cooling seen in months, competition is still running rampant in some specific housing markets. Several U.S. cities where home prices are rising the most—such as San Jose and Boston—are seeing competition rates above 75%, according to Redfin. And many of these more expensive housing markets are bucking the trend and actually seeing an increase in bidding wars, not a decline.

Austin has seen the biggest bump in housing competition over the past year, up over 21%. Competition for housing in San Antonio also went up nearly 16%, while in other cities—including Boston, San Jose, and Miami—the frequency of bidding wars went up more than 6%.

Easing competition nationwide is a positive sign that the housing market is beginning to cool and prices might soon begin to decelerate. But without a larger inventory of houses on the market, it is unlikely that the frequency of bidding wars emerging will return to a pre-pandemic normal.

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