芒格對阿里空翻多，發(fā)生了什么？
錢科雷
2022-04-19
查理·芒格是內布拉斯加州億萬富翁沃倫·巴菲特的長期投資伙伴。一年多以來他一直堅稱，市場看空者對中國股票的看法大多有誤，尤其是對一只中國股票，即電商巨頭阿里巴巴的看法更是錯誤。
然而如今情況不一樣了。過去三個月里某個時刻，華爾街向來最狂熱看多阿里的芒格似乎改變了想法。
上周，總部位于洛杉磯的報紙和軟件企業(yè)Daily Journal 公司在一份監(jiān)管文件中披露，2022年一季度持有的阿里股份削減了約一半。而芒格正是掌管Daily Journal投資組合的管理者之一。Daily Journal 在文件中稱，截至3月底持有阿里30萬份美國存托憑證（ADR），低于去年年底持有的60.206萬份。
文件顯示，截至3月31日，Daily Journal持有阿里股份市值為3260萬美元，低于12月31日的7150萬美元。
現年98歲的芒格一直被稱為巴菲特的“得力助手”，1977年以來一直擔任伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）副董事長，擔任Daily Journal董事長也長達45年。上個月，他辭去了Daily Journal董事長一職，但仍留在董事會。Daily Journal稱，芒格會繼續(xù)積極參與股票投資組合決策。
2019年5月3日，伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司首席執(zhí)行官沃倫·巴菲特（左）和副董事長查理·芒格出席內布拉斯加州奧馬哈舉行的2019年度股東大會。圖片來源：Johannes Eisele—AFP/Getty Images
關于Daily Journal減持阿里一事，芒格拒絕置評。不過此舉相較于2021四季度加倍增持阿里的行動可謂大扭轉，也暗示了美國股神對中國公司前景看法突然轉變。
全球其他投資者早在2020年10月就開始拋售阿里股票。當時億萬富翁，也是阿里聯合創(chuàng)始人馬云在上海出席了一場高端金融會議，發(fā)表了對金融行業(yè)的一些獨特看法。
馬云的發(fā)言引發(fā)關注和爭議，阿里移動支付子公司螞蟻集團350億美元的首次公開募股也被叫停。馬云隨之逐漸淡出公眾視野。監(jiān)管機構對兩家公司進行了突擊檢查，要求螞蟻進行徹底重組，還對阿里處以數十億美元的反壟斷罰款。2022年3月12日，阿里在紐約證券交易所的股價從2020年10月27日317美元的新高下滑至87美元的接近歷史低點，公司市值從8380億美元的峰值縮水至2460億美元，跌幅超過70%。
Daily Journal披露持股之前，芒格一直是公認阿里最堅定的支持者之一。2021年一季度，中國政府開始實施監(jiān)管閃電戰(zhàn)，重重打擊了電商，網絡游戲、在線教育、外賣和網約車等領域。與此同時Daily Journal決定買入16.5萬份阿里存托憑證，阿里也就此稱為該公司持股規(guī)模排名第三的公司。Daily Journal提交監(jiān)管的文件顯示，截至2021年3月31日，阿里股份占了公司投資組合的19%。
據Business Insider報道，芒格聽取了喜馬拉雅伙伴基金創(chuàng)始人兼董事長李錄的建議，敦促Daily Journal投資阿里巴巴。李錄曾說服巴菲特支持比亞迪。比亞迪是中國電池和汽車制造商，也是伯克希爾有史以來利潤最高的投資之一。
2019年Daily Journal一次會議上，芒格透露已委托李錄將部分個人財富投資阿里，還盛贊這位中國基金經理在全球最有希望的市場之一挑選贏家方面相當敏銳?！袄钿浿皇侨チ撕苋菀揍烎~的地方，其他人只會在鱈魚早被捉完的地方釣魚，”芒格說。
對芒格來說，阿里是個不同尋常的投資選擇，因為他經常指責存托憑證不透明而且復雜。此外，在2021年2月Daily Journal年度投資者會議上，芒格表示贊同中國政府對螞蟻集團采取的政策，還直接批評馬云針對中國監(jiān)管機構的不當言論。
圖片來源：Lyu Ming—China News Service/Getty Images
2021年6月接受美國消費者新聞與商業(yè)頻道（CNBC）采訪時，芒格贊成中國監(jiān)管者讓馬云走回正路。“中國政府做得很對，”他說?！拔也皇窍Ｍ浦仓袊邢到y(tǒng)，但我真希望美國金融系統(tǒng)也能如此?！?/p>
然而最近，芒格似乎一直在擔心馬云的傲慢，雖然中國市場長期增長前景看起來不可限量，最終得出的結論是做投資決策時威權制度影響力更大。“中國是現代化的大國，”2月 芒格在Daily Journal的2022年投資者大會上說?！斑^去30年里，中國擁有龐大的人口和大規(guī)模現代化。我們在中國做了些投資，因為從企業(yè)實力和安全價格方面投資中國能獲得比在美國更多的價值?！?/p>
上個月，中國國務院副總理劉鶴承諾，采取一攬子措施支持經濟和金融市場，這說明芒格的樂觀似乎很有根據，甚至可能是先見之明。
但中國監(jiān)管框架的變化僅部分兌現了承諾。劉鶴發(fā)表聲明后的幾周里，北京向少數中國網絡游戲生產商頒發(fā)了新的版號，表示允許一些中國公司向美國證券監(jiān)管機構提供更多查閱財務記錄的渠道，防止美國監(jiān)管機構迫使數百家中國公司從美國交易所退市。
盡管上海、廣州和中國其他主要城市均爆發(fā)新冠疫情，急需在線服務，監(jiān)管機構并未放松對阿里和其他大型數字零售商的限制。
螞蟻對全公司進行了全面的業(yè)務改革，大幅增加了資本基礎并提高了防火墻水平，還有將10億用戶的移動支付平臺支付寶與財富管理和消費貸款等金融服務分開，然而上市之路仍前景不明。螞蟻旗下貨幣市場基金余額寶管理的資產減少了三分之一以上。余額寶曾是全球最大的貨幣市場基金之一。2020年10月螞蟻上市前夕，多位分析師對螞蟻估值超過3000億美元。種種新限制下，專家和投資者只能放棄原先評估。貝萊德（BlackRock）對螞蟻的最新估值為1740億美元，富達投資（Fidelity Investments）最近將其估值下調至780億美元。
阿里最近的財務業(yè)績也不會讓芒格感到安慰。今年2月，該公司宣布季度收入同比增長10%，為2014年上市以來最低增速。
全球股市分析師仍然認為，阿里股價被嚴重低估。MarketWatch追蹤的56位阿里分析師中。40人評級建議“買入”，6家評級為“增持”，只有一位分析師建議“賣出”。
然而，阿里面臨監(jiān)管困境和黯淡的財務業(yè)績正考驗基石投資者的決心，比如孫正義旗下的軟銀集團（SoftBank Group），軟銀持有阿里25%的股份。
阿里面臨的更大威脅是，市場上出現了拼多多等靈活的電商競爭對手，而且中國消費者購物習慣不斷改變，很多人從搜索并直接前往阿里的淘寶或天貓平臺尋找產品，變成在與其他在線內容互動的同時被引導購物。
芒格向來以其睿智和簡約的投資方法聞名。但在阿里案例中，他似乎發(fā)現釣魚并不像看上去那樣容易。（財富中文網）
譯者：夏林
查理·芒格是內布拉斯加州億萬富翁沃倫·巴菲特的長期投資伙伴。一年多以來他一直堅稱，市場看空者對中國股票的看法大多有誤，尤其是對一只中國股票，即電商巨頭阿里巴巴的看法更是錯誤。
然而如今情況不一樣了。過去三個月里某個時刻，華爾街向來最狂熱看多阿里的芒格似乎改變了想法。
上周，總部位于洛杉磯的報紙和軟件企業(yè)Daily Journal 公司在一份監(jiān)管文件中披露，2022年一季度持有的阿里股份削減了約一半。而芒格正是掌管Daily Journal投資組合的管理者之一。Daily Journal 在文件中稱，截至3月底持有阿里30萬份美國存托憑證（ADR），低于去年年底持有的60.206萬份。
文件顯示，截至3月31日，Daily Journal持有阿里股份市值為3260萬美元，低于12月31日的7150萬美元。
現年98歲的芒格一直被稱為巴菲特的“得力助手”，1977年以來一直擔任伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）副董事長，擔任Daily Journal董事長也長達45年。上個月，他辭去了Daily Journal董事長一職，但仍留在董事會。Daily Journal稱，芒格會繼續(xù)積極參與股票投資組合決策。
關于Daily Journal減持阿里一事，芒格拒絕置評。不過此舉相較于2021四季度加倍增持阿里的行動可謂大扭轉，也暗示了美國股神對中國公司前景看法突然轉變。
全球其他投資者早在2020年10月就開始拋售阿里股票。當時億萬富翁，也是阿里聯合創(chuàng)始人馬云在上海出席了一場高端金融會議，發(fā)表了對金融行業(yè)的一些獨特看法。
馬云的發(fā)言引發(fā)關注和爭議，阿里移動支付子公司螞蟻集團350億美元的首次公開募股也被叫停。馬云隨之逐漸淡出公眾視野。監(jiān)管機構對兩家公司進行了突擊檢查，要求螞蟻進行徹底重組，還對阿里處以數十億美元的反壟斷罰款。2022年3月12日，阿里在紐約證券交易所的股價從2020年10月27日317美元的新高下滑至87美元的接近歷史低點，公司市值從8380億美元的峰值縮水至2460億美元，跌幅超過70%。
Daily Journal披露持股之前，芒格一直是公認阿里最堅定的支持者之一。2021年一季度，中國政府開始實施監(jiān)管閃電戰(zhàn)，重重打擊了電商，網絡游戲、在線教育、外賣和網約車等領域。與此同時Daily Journal決定買入16.5萬份阿里存托憑證，阿里也就此稱為該公司持股規(guī)模排名第三的公司。Daily Journal提交監(jiān)管的文件顯示，截至2021年3月31日，阿里股份占了公司投資組合的19%。
據Business Insider報道，芒格聽取了喜馬拉雅伙伴基金創(chuàng)始人兼董事長李錄的建議，敦促Daily Journal投資阿里巴巴。李錄曾說服巴菲特支持比亞迪。比亞迪是中國電池和汽車制造商，也是伯克希爾有史以來利潤最高的投資之一。
2019年Daily Journal一次會議上，芒格透露已委托李錄將部分個人財富投資阿里，還盛贊這位中國基金經理在全球最有希望的市場之一挑選贏家方面相當敏銳。“李錄只是去了很容易釣魚的地方，其他人只會在鱈魚早被捉完的地方釣魚，”芒格說。
對芒格來說，阿里是個不同尋常的投資選擇，因為他經常指責存托憑證不透明而且復雜。此外，在2021年2月Daily Journal年度投資者會議上，芒格表示贊同中國政府對螞蟻集團采取的政策，還直接批評馬云針對中國監(jiān)管機構的不當言論。
2021年6月接受美國消費者新聞與商業(yè)頻道（CNBC）采訪時，芒格贊成中國監(jiān)管者讓馬云走回正路?！爸袊龅煤軐Γ彼f?！拔也皇窍Ｍ浦仓袊邢到y(tǒng)，但我真希望美國金融系統(tǒng)也能如此?！?/p>
然而最近，芒格似乎一直在擔心馬云的傲慢，雖然中國市場長期增長前景看起來不可限量，最終得出的結論是做投資決策時威權制度影響力更大?！爸袊乾F代化的大國，”2月 芒格在Daily Journal的2022年投資者大會上說?！斑^去30年里，中國擁有龐大的人口和大規(guī)?，F代化。我們在中國做了些投資，因為從企業(yè)實力和安全價格方面投資中國能獲得比在美國更多的價值?！?/p>
上個月，中國國務院副總理劉鶴承諾，采取一攬子措施支持經濟和金融市場，這說明芒格的樂觀似乎很有根據，甚至可能是先見之明。
但中國監(jiān)管框架的變化僅部分兌現了承諾。劉鶴發(fā)表聲明后的幾周里，北京向少數中國網絡游戲生產商頒發(fā)了新的版號，表示允許一些中國公司向美國證券監(jiān)管機構提供更多查閱財務記錄的渠道，防止美國監(jiān)管機構迫使數百家中國公司從美國交易所退市。
盡管上海、廣州和中國其他主要城市均爆發(fā)新冠疫情，急需在線服務，監(jiān)管機構并未放松對阿里和其他大型數字零售商的限制。
螞蟻對全公司進行了全面的業(yè)務改革，大幅增加了資本基礎并提高了防火墻水平，還有將10億用戶的移動支付平臺支付寶與財富管理和消費貸款等金融服務分開，然而上市之路仍前景不明。螞蟻旗下貨幣市場基金余額寶管理的資產減少了三分之一以上。余額寶曾是全球最大的貨幣市場基金之一。2020年10月螞蟻上市前夕，多位分析師對螞蟻估值超過3000億美元。種種新限制下，專家和投資者只能放棄原先評估。貝萊德（BlackRock）對螞蟻的最新估值為1740億美元，富達投資（Fidelity Investments）最近將其估值下調至780億美元。
阿里最近的財務業(yè)績也不會讓芒格感到安慰。今年2月，該公司宣布季度收入同比增長10%，為2014年上市以來最低增速。
全球股市分析師仍然認為，阿里股價被嚴重低估。MarketWatch追蹤的56位阿里分析師中。40人評級建議“買入”，6家評級為“增持”，只有一位分析師建議“賣出”。
然而，阿里面臨監(jiān)管困境和黯淡的財務業(yè)績正考驗基石投資者的決心，比如孫正義旗下的軟銀集團（SoftBank Group），軟銀持有阿里25%的股份。
阿里面臨的更大威脅是，市場上出現了拼多多等靈活的電商競爭對手，而且中國消費者購物習慣不斷改變，很多人從搜索并直接前往阿里的淘寶或天貓平臺尋找產品，變成在與其他在線內容互動的同時被引導購物。
芒格向來以其睿智和簡約的投資方法聞名。但在阿里案例中，他似乎發(fā)現釣魚并不像看上去那樣容易。（財富中文網）
譯者：夏林
For more than a year, Charlie Munger, the long-serving investing partner of Nebraska billionaire Warren Buffett, has insisted that market bears have it all wrong about China stocks in general, and about one China stock in particular: e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holdings.
No more. Sometime over the past three months, Munger, hitherto considered one of Wall Street's most fervent BABA bulls, appears to have changed his mind.
On Monday, Daily Journal Corp, a Los Angeles-based newspaper and software business that counts Munger as one of the managers of its stock portfolio, disclosed in a regulatory filing that in the first quarter of 2022 the company slashed its stake in Alibaba by about half. The Daily Journal reported in the filing that it owned 300,00 American depository receipts (ADRs) in Alibaba as of the end of March, down from the 602,060 Alibaba shares the company held at the end of last year.
According to the filing, as of March 31, the Daily Journal's Alibaba shares were valued at $32.6 million, down from $71.5 million on Dec. 31.
Munger, 98, long described as Buffett's "right-hand man," has been vice-chairman at Berkshire Hathaway since 1977 and had served chairman of the Daily Journal for 45 years. He stepped down from that latter post last month but remains on the company's board. The Daily Journal says Munger continues to be actively involved in selecting the company's equity portfolio.
Munger has declined comment on the Daily Journal's move to bail out of BABA. But the retreat reverses the company's decision in the fourth quarter of 2021 to double down on its bet on Alibaba—and suggests an abrupt shift in the American stock-picking legend's assessment of the Chinese company's prospects.
Other global investors began dumping Alibaba shares in October 2020, after billionaire co-founder Jack Ma took to the stage of a high-profile financial conference in Shanghai, gazed out over an audience that included China's most senior economic policymakers, and decried the central government's banking and securities regulators as a bunch of risk-averse "pawnbrokers" who were stifling innovation and strangling growth.
Ma's put-down drew swift retribution from China President Xi Jinping, who personally scuppered a planned $35 billion initial public offering for Ant Group, Alibaba's mobile payments affiliate. Ma disappeared from public view. Regulators swooped down on both companies, demanding a radical corporate restructuring at Ant and slapping Alibaba with billions of dollars in antitrust fines. The price of Alibaba shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange slid to a near-historic low of $87 on March 12, 2022, down from an all-time high of $317 on October 27, 2020, shriveling the company's market value to $246 billion, down from a peak of $838 billion—a collapse of more than 70%.
Until the Daily Journal's disclosure this week, Munger had been considered one of Alibaba's most stalwart boosters. In the first quarter of 2021, just as Beijing embarked on a regulatory blitzkrieg that would eventually engulf consumer-facing internet platforms in nearly every sector—e-commerce, online gaming, online tutoring, food delivery, and ride hailing—the Daily Journal added 165,000 Alibaba ADSs to its portfolio, making the Chinese e-commerce company the newspaper's third-largest holding after Bank of American and Wells Fargo. The Daily Journal's regulatory filings show that, as of March 31, 2021, Alibaba shares accounted for 19% of the company's entire portfolio.
Business Insider reports that Munger urged the Daily Journal to invest in Alibaba on the basis of a recommendation from Li Lu, the founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital Management and the man who persuaded Buffett to back BYD, a Chinese electric battery and vehicle manufacturer that has turned out to be one of Berkshire's most profitable investments ever.
In a 2019 Daily Journal meeting, Munger revealed that he had entrusted Lu to invest a share of his personal fortune and lauded the Chinese money manager for his acumen in picking winners in one of the world's most promising markets. "Li Lu just went where the fishing was good and the rest of us are like cod fishermen who are trying to catch cod where the fish have been fished out," Munger said.
Alibaba was an unusual investment choice for Munger, who often has disparaged ADRs as opaque and convoluted. Moreover, at the Daily Journal's annual investors' meeting in February 2021, Munger praised Beijing's crackdown on Ant Group and bluntly rebuked Ma for provoking Chinese regulators.
In a June 2021 interview with CNBC, Munger defended China's regulators for bringing Ma to heel. "Communists did the right thing," he said. "They just called in Jack Ma and say, 'You aren't gonna do it, sonny.' And I wish we had—I don't want all of the Chinese system—but I certainly would like to have the financial part of it in my own country."
And yet, until very recently, Munger appears to have weighed concerns about Ma's hubris and China's authoritarian system against the seemingly limitless long-term growth prospects of the Chinese market—and concluded that the latter had far more heft when it came to making investment decisions. "China is a big modern nation," Munger said at the Daily Journal's 2022 investors' meeting in February. "It's got this huge population and this huge modernity that's come in the last 30 years. We invested some money in China because we could get more value in terms of the strength of the enterprise and the price of the security than we could get in the United States."
Such optimism seemed well-founded, perhaps even prescient, last month when China's top economic policy czar Liu He promised a package of sweeping measures to support the nation's economy and financial markets and signaled Xi's two-year crusade to rein in the forces of "disorderly capital" was drawing to an end.
But that pledge has been only partly supported by changes in China's regulatory framework. In the weeks since Liu's pronouncement, Beijing has granted new licenses to a handful of Chinese online game producers and signaled it will allow some Chinese companies to grant U.S. securities regulators greater access to their financial records in order to prevent U.S. regulators from forcing hundreds of Chinese companies to delist from American exchanges.
Regulators have yet to ease restrictions on Alibaba and other large digital retailers, even as COVID-19 outbreaks in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and other major Chinese cities fuel an urgent need for online delivery services.
Ant's IPO remains in limbo, despite a sweeping business overhaul in which the company dramatically increased its capital base and raised high firewalls to separate Alipay, its mobile payment platform with 1 billion users, from financial services like wealth management and consumer lending. Ant has reduced assets under management at its money market fund, Yu'ebao—once one of the world's largest—by more than a third. In October 2020, on the brink of its IPO, many analysts estimated Ant's value at over $300 billion. The new restrictions have prompted experts and investors to back off those assessments. BlackRock recently valued Ant at $174 billion while Fidelity Investments recently slashed its valuation to $78 billion.
Munger would not have found solace in Alibaba's most recent financial results. In February, the company reported year-on-year quarterly revenue growth of 10%, its slowest quarterly growth rate since going public in 2014.
The consensus among global equity analysts remains that Alibaba's shares are hugely undervalued. Of the 56 analysts following Alibaba tracked by MarketWatch.com, 40 rated the company's shares a "buy" while six rated them "overweight." Only one analyst rated the company's shares a "sell."
And yet the company's regulatory travails and lackluster financial results have tested the resolve of even cornerstone Alibaba investors like Masayoshi Son's SoftBank Group, which holds a 25% stake in the e-commerce giant.
The larger threat to Alibaba is the emergence of nimble e-commerce rivals like Pinduoduo and the evolving shopping habits of Chinese consumers who have shifted from search—going directly to Alibaba's Taobao or T-mall platforms to look for products—to browsing in which they are pulled into purchasing while interacting with other online content.
Munger is famed for his folk wisdom and no-nonsense approach to investing. But in the case of Alibaba, he appears to have decided that the fishing isn't as easy as it looked.
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