以太幣大升級，超越比特幣指日可待？
Taylor Locke
2022-03-29
第二大加密貨幣以太幣（Ether）背后的區塊鏈很快將進行萬眾矚目的升級，此舉可能會吸引更多的機構投資者將資金投入該網絡，并幫助提升以太幣的價格。
此次區塊鏈升級的目標是提升以太坊（Ethereum）的可擴展性、安全性和可持續性。此外，升級還將淘汰這款加密貨幣的挖礦業務，從而降低生成新代幣所需要的巨大能耗，而能耗一直是人們強烈抨擊的對象。
截至目前，比特幣（Bitcoin）是市值最大的加密貨幣，超過了8040億美元。然而，以太幣當前的市值超過了3600億美元，有望在名為“合并”的基礎設施升級之后超越比特幣。
盡管這一舉措的時間表并未最終確定，但行業觀察家認為，“合并”可能會在今年夏天進行。投資者已經開始下注，而且大量的資金都面臨著風險。
除了助力以太幣之外，以太坊還一直是去中心化金融應用程序和非同質化代幣（NFT）項目的座上客，因此，升級有望大幅推高其估值。
采用權益證明機制將減少99%的能耗
以太坊當前依靠的是工作量證明機制，其中，礦機必須解答復雜的數學題，來驗證交易并生成新幣。這一流程要求大量的算力，而且通常會因為其環境影響而受到批評。
借助計劃的升級，以太坊將轉而采用權益證明機制，該機制將讓用戶根據其貢獻代幣的多少，即權益，來驗證交易。作為質押更多代幣的回報，用戶獲選在網絡上驗證交易并獲取獎勵的概率更高。
當前，以太坊同時運行著工作量證明和權益證明兩條鏈。盡管這兩條鏈都有驗證器，但當前處理用戶交易的只有工作量證明鏈。一旦合并完成，以太坊的區塊鏈將全面轉至權益證明鏈，即信標鏈（Beacon Chain），同時淘汰挖礦。
受此影響，人們預測以太坊的能耗將下降99%。由于環境影響的降低，業界認為更多的機構投資者將愿意購買以太幣，使用其區塊鏈，投資其網絡，并擴大其采用范圍。
作為合并的最后準備，以太坊的開發人員已經測試了這一轉換，并獲得了成功。這一結果讓人們越發看好升級帶來的潛力。
盡管人們原本預計合并會在數個月前進行，而且一再推遲，但以太坊的開發人員蒂姆·貝科告訴彭博社（Bloomberg）：“除非有災難性的事件發生，否則合并肯定會在今年進行?！?/p>
已經發行的以太幣數量預計將減少90%，這一現象可能會推高其價格
人們預計以太幣的供應在“合并”之后會有所下滑，因為業界預計以太幣的發行量可能會減少。
區塊鏈分析公司IntoTheBlock在其新聞通訊中寫道：“在合并之后，已經發行的以太幣數量預計將下滑90%，此舉將導致費用下降至類似水平，繼而讓以太幣的年供應量出現高達5%的年降幅。”
如果需求在供應下滑時增加，以太幣的價格就可能會上漲。然而，我們無法預測任何資產的未來價格。
Watch the Burn的數據顯示，自從2021年8月實施另一項重要升級以來，以太坊已經燒掉或摧毀了價值59億美元的以太幣。盡管8月的升級與合并無關，但它確實證實了新以太幣的發行已經開始放緩。合并后，一些人認為以太幣可能會成為一種能夠抵御通脹的資產，或因為其下滑的供應量而被視作一種價值儲存工具。目前，比特幣已經被當作這種資產避風港。
預計將帶來高回報的質押收益
根據權益證明機制，驗證器將把以太幣“質押”或貢獻給加密貨幣錢包。按照新的權益證明模式，此前在工作量模式下向礦主支付的辛苦費將在一定程度上轉變為驗證器的被動收入，因為挖礦將被淘汰。
加密分析平臺IntoTheBlock報道稱：“通過與權益證明鏈的合并，礦機此前賺取的費用將進入質押方的腰包。這一現象有望讓質押獎勵達到7%至12%的水平。”
然而評論人員對“合并”表示懷疑
盡管大多數以太坊社區對“合并”感到興奮不已，但也有人表達了擔憂。
專注于比特幣的創投公司Stillmark的創始人艾麗絲·基利恩在推特（Twitter）上寫道：“以太坊已經深陷困境，安全性的確保正在變得越來越困難。”她認為權益證明的安全性有所減弱，而且會讓以太坊變得更容易受到攻擊。
但這類批評“似乎對以太坊存在非常大的偏見，并沒有多少依據。”貝科告訴《財富》雜志。他表示，向權益證明的邁進實際上將改善其應對潛在黑客攻擊的安全性。
他說：“在權益證明機制下，如果出現攻擊，我們只需要對網絡進行升級，就可以廢掉黑客的代幣?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
第二大加密貨幣以太幣（Ether）背后的區塊鏈很快將進行萬眾矚目的升級，此舉可能會吸引更多的機構投資者將資金投入該網絡，并幫助提升以太幣的價格。
此次區塊鏈升級的目標是提升以太坊（Ethereum）的可擴展性、安全性和可持續性。此外，升級還將淘汰這款加密貨幣的挖礦業務，從而降低生成新代幣所需要的巨大能耗，而能耗一直是人們強烈抨擊的對象。
截至目前，比特幣（Bitcoin）是市值最大的加密貨幣，超過了8040億美元。然而，以太幣當前的市值超過了3600億美元，有望在名為“合并”的基礎設施升級之后超越比特幣。
盡管這一舉措的時間表并未最終確定，但行業觀察家認為，“合并”可能會在今年夏天進行。投資者已經開始下注，而且大量的資金都面臨著風險。
除了助力以太幣之外，以太坊還一直是去中心化金融應用程序和非同質化代幣（NFT）項目的座上客，因此，升級有望大幅推高其估值。
采用權益證明機制將減少99%的能耗
以太坊當前依靠的是工作量證明機制，其中，礦機必須解答復雜的數學題，來驗證交易并生成新幣。這一流程要求大量的算力，而且通常會因為其環境影響而受到批評。
借助計劃的升級，以太坊將轉而采用權益證明機制，該機制將讓用戶根據其貢獻代幣的多少，即權益，來驗證交易。作為質押更多代幣的回報，用戶獲選在網絡上驗證交易并獲取獎勵的概率更高。
當前，以太坊同時運行著工作量證明和權益證明兩條鏈。盡管這兩條鏈都有驗證器，但當前處理用戶交易的只有工作量證明鏈。一旦合并完成，以太坊的區塊鏈將全面轉至權益證明鏈，即信標鏈（Beacon Chain），同時淘汰挖礦。
受此影響，人們預測以太坊的能耗將下降99%。由于環境影響的降低，業界認為更多的機構投資者將愿意購買以太幣，使用其區塊鏈，投資其網絡，并擴大其采用范圍。
作為合并的最后準備，以太坊的開發人員已經測試了這一轉換，并獲得了成功。這一結果讓人們越發看好升級帶來的潛力。
盡管人們原本預計合并會在數個月前進行，而且一再推遲，但以太坊的開發人員蒂姆·貝科告訴彭博社（Bloomberg）：“除非有災難性的事件發生，否則合并肯定會在今年進行?！?/p>
已經發行的以太幣數量預計將減少90%，這一現象可能會推高其價格
人們預計以太幣的供應在“合并”之后會有所下滑，因為業界預計以太幣的發行量可能會減少。
區塊鏈分析公司IntoTheBlock在其新聞通訊中寫道：“在合并之后，已經發行的以太幣數量預計將下滑90%，此舉將導致費用下降至類似水平，繼而讓以太幣的年供應量出現高達5%的年降幅?！?/p>
如果需求在供應下滑時增加，以太幣的價格就可能會上漲。然而，我們無法預測任何資產的未來價格。
Watch the Burn的數據顯示，自從2021年8月實施另一項重要升級以來，以太坊已經燒掉或摧毀了價值59億美元的以太幣。盡管8月的升級與合并無關，但它確實證實了新以太幣的發行已經開始放緩。合并后，一些人認為以太幣可能會成為一種能夠抵御通脹的資產，或因為其下滑的供應量而被視作一種價值儲存工具。目前，比特幣已經被當作這種資產避風港。
預計將帶來高回報的質押收益
根據權益證明機制，驗證器將把以太幣“質押”或貢獻給加密貨幣錢包。按照新的權益證明模式，此前在工作量模式下向礦主支付的辛苦費將在一定程度上轉變為驗證器的被動收入，因為挖礦將被淘汰。
加密分析平臺IntoTheBlock報道稱：“通過與權益證明鏈的合并，礦機此前賺取的費用將進入質押方的腰包。這一現象有望讓質押獎勵達到7%至12%的水平?！?/p>
然而評論人員對“合并”表示懷疑
盡管大多數以太坊社區對“合并”感到興奮不已，但也有人表達了擔憂。
專注于比特幣的創投公司Stillmark的創始人艾麗絲·基利恩在推特（Twitter）上寫道：“以太坊已經深陷困境，安全性的確保正在變得越來越困難?！彼J為權益證明的安全性有所減弱，而且會讓以太坊變得更容易受到攻擊。
但這類批評“似乎對以太坊存在非常大的偏見，并沒有多少依據?！必惪聘嬖V《財富》雜志。他表示，向權益證明的邁進實際上將改善其應對潛在黑客攻擊的安全性。
他說：“在權益證明機制下，如果出現攻擊，我們只需要對網絡進行升級，就可以廢掉黑客的代幣?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
The blockchain behind the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, will soon undergo a highly-anticipated upgrade that may lead to more institutional investors putting money in the network and help lift Ether's price.
The goal is to make Ethereum, the blockchain being upgraded, more scalable, secure, and sustainable. Among other things, it would making its crypto mining obsolete, thereby reducing the huge amount of energy required to create new tokens —a source of intense criticism.
As of now, Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market value at over $804 billion. But Ether—with a current market cap of more than $360 billion—could become the leader after the infrastructure upgrade called the “merge.”
Though a timeline isn’t definite yet, industry watchers have speculated that the “merge” could happen this summer. Investors are already betting on that, and there’s a lot of money at stake.
In addition to powering Ether, Ethereum has been adopted by decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and non-fungible token projects (NFTs), so an upgrade could dramatically enhance its valuation.
Move to proof-of-stake will result in ‘99%’ less energy used
Ethereum currently relies on what’s known as proof-of-work in which miners must complete complex puzzles to validate transactions and create new coins. This process requires a huge amount of computer power and is often criticized due to its environmental impact.
With the planned upgrade, Ethereum is moving to proof-of-stake, which would let users validate transactions according to how many coins they contribute, or stake. In return for staking more coins, users have a higher likelihood of being chosen to validate transactions on the network and earn a reward.
Currently, Ethereum has both a proof-of-work and proof-of-stake chain running in parallel. While both chains have validators, only the proof-of-work chain currently processes users’ transactions. Once the merge is complete, Ethereum's blockchain will shift fully to the proof-of-stake chain, called the Beacon Chain, making mining obsolete.
As a result, it’s predicted that Ethereum’s energy consumption will be cut by 99%. Due to the reduced environmental impact, it’s thought that more institutional investors will want to buy Ether, use its blockchain, invest in its network, and create greater adoption.
Ethereum developers successfully tested the shift last week as part of final preparations for the merge, which added to bullish sentiment surrounding the upgrade’s potential.
Though the merge was expected to happen months ago and has been delayed, Ethereum developer Tim Beiko told Bloomberg that “it would take a catastrophic event for it not to happen this year.”
Ether issued is estimated to drop by “90%,” which may boost its price
The supply of Ether is also expected to decline post-“merge,” because fewer coins are expected to be issued.
"Following the merge, the amount of ETH issued is projected to drop by 90%, which would lead similar levels of fees to reduce ether’s supply by as much as 5% a year," blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock wrote in its newsletter.
If demand increases as the supply declines, the price of Ether may rise. But it’s impossible to predict the future price of any asset.
Since the implementation of another important upgrade in August, Ethereum has already burned, or destroyed, $5.9 billion worth of Ether, according to data dashboard Watch the Burn. Though that August upgrade was unrelated to the merge, it does show that the issuance of new Ether has already slowed. Post-merge, some think Ether may become a deflationary asset, or one with declining supply that can be used as a store of value. Bitcoin is already considered such a safe haven.
Staking yields estimated to cause for high returns
Under proof-of-stake, validators will “stake,” or contribute their Ether to crypto wallets. Fees that were typically paid to miners for their efforts in the proof-of-work model will turn into somewhat of passive income for validators under the new proof-of-stake, since mining will become obsolete.
"Through the merge with the proof-of-stake chain, fees previously earned by miners will pass on to being earned by those staking. This is expected to result in staking rewards between 7% and 12%," IntoTheBlock reported.
But critics are skeptical of the “merge”
Though most of the Ethereum community is excited about the “merge,” some have expressed concern.
Alyse Killeen, founder of Bitcoin-focused venture firm Stillmark, said on Twitter: “Ethereum is in so. much. trouble…ensuring security is becoming harder [and] harder.” She argues that proof-of-stake is less secure and that it makes Ethereum more vulnerable to attacks.
But this critique “just seems very anti-Ethereum without much extra substance,” Beiko told Fortune. He said that the move to proof-of-stake would actually improve security against potential hacking.
“Under proof-of-stake, if an attack happens, we can simply upgrade the network to remove the attackers’ coins,” he said.
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