2021年,美國就業市場的招聘人數再創新高,很多企業使盡渾身解數招人,在此背景下,一些工人也獲得了多年以來最大幅度的加薪。不過盡管他們的工資有所增長,但由于美國當前的通脹問題愈演愈烈,人們的生活水平很可能并沒有得到實際的改善。
據美國勞工統計局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)統計,今年2月,美國的通脹問題繼續發酵,2月美國的消費價格指數同比上漲7.9%,創下自20世紀80年代初以來的最高紀錄。本輪物價上漲的主因是汽油、食品和租金價格的上漲。受烏克蘭戰爭影響,汽油價格很有可能進一步上漲,因此美國的通脹預計將進一步惡化。
Pantheon Economics公司的經濟學家伊恩·謝潑德森在一篇研究文章中指出:“2月美國的總體通脹率并未突破8%的預期,但相差僅為十分之一,不過3月它就會輕松突破這一大關。”他預計3月美國的通脹率將達到頂點,具體應該在8.2%到8.4%之間。
這對普通美國老百姓來說無疑是一個壞消息——雖然2021年很多人都在“大辭職潮”(Great Resignation)中跳槽到了更高薪的崗位上。2021年,全美的薪資漲幅達到4.5%,是多年來工資漲幅最大的一次,但這仍然遠遠沒有跟上物價上漲的速度。2021年,工人的薪資漲幅必須達到6%以上,才能夠跟上物價的實際增長。因此我們說,工人們的工資可能確實是增長了,但他們買得起的東西卻更少了。
企業點評網站Glassdoor的高級經濟學家丹尼爾·趙指出:“有些工人表示,通脹讓他們的生活雪上加霜。還有一些工人認為,他們今年應當得到更高的加薪,因為他們還要頂上那些在‘大辭職潮’中跳槽的同事的工作。”
第一資本公司(Capital One)的消費情報主管梅麗莎·比爾登稱,當前美國的通脹問題給低收入家庭帶來的影響尤為突出。第一資本公司最近對美國各收入群體收入狀況的抽樣調查顯示,過去三個月,在年收入低于2.5萬美元的低收入群體中,只有不到10%的人的非績效工資有所上漲,或是拿到了獎金。但在年收入10萬美元以上的群體中,漲薪比例則達到了30%。換言之,高收入者的漲薪幾率是低收入者的三倍,所以他們更可以從容應對生活成本的上漲。
同時,通脹也讓所有美國人感到了切膚之痛。第一資本公司的報告顯示,今年1月,有26%的消費者至少無力支付一筆賬單,62%的受訪者因為通脹而削減了自己的可支配支出。
比爾登說:“所有收入群體都感受到了通脹的影響,而且他們發現收入的增長并未跟上物價的漲幅。”
因此,高通脹給了工人要求今年更大幅度加薪的理由,工人們必然要在今年的工資談判中提出更高要求。世界大型企業聯合會(Conference Board)在2021年12月發布的一份報告預計,2022年企業的薪資漲幅將逼近4%。如果正如謝潑德森等經濟學家預計的那樣,未來幾個月美國通脹確實將有所放緩,那么工人們或許真的就將迎來實際工資和購買力的增長。
企業點評網站Glassdoor的高級經濟學家丹尼爾·趙建議道,既然現在的就業市場如此火熱,工人們如果在當前這份工作中得不到加薪,那么跳槽也是一個很好的選擇。
他說:“有了其他選擇,工人們就能夠更有底氣與現在的雇主談判。而為了留住人才,雇主們也會更加重視員工的意見,并且盡量滿足他們的薪資要求。”(財富中文網)
譯者:樸成奎
2021年,美國就業市場的招聘人數再創新高,很多企業使盡渾身解數招人,在此背景下,一些工人也獲得了多年以來最大幅度的加薪。不過盡管他們的工資有所增長,但由于美國當前的通脹問題愈演愈烈,人們的生活水平很可能并沒有得到實際的改善。
據美國勞工統計局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)統計,今年2月,美國的通脹問題繼續發酵,2月美國的消費價格指數同比上漲7.9%,創下自20世紀80年代初以來的最高紀錄。本輪物價上漲的主因是汽油、食品和租金價格的上漲。受烏克蘭戰爭影響,汽油價格很有可能進一步上漲,因此美國的通脹預計將進一步惡化。
Pantheon Economics公司的經濟學家伊恩·謝潑德森在一篇研究文章中指出:“2月美國的總體通脹率并未突破8%的預期,但相差僅為十分之一,不過3月它就會輕松突破這一大關。”他預計3月美國的通脹率將達到頂點,具體應該在8.2%到8.4%之間。
這對普通美國老百姓來說無疑是一個壞消息——雖然2021年很多人都在“大辭職潮”(Great Resignation)中跳槽到了更高薪的崗位上。2021年,全美的薪資漲幅達到4.5%,是多年來工資漲幅最大的一次,但這仍然遠遠沒有跟上物價上漲的速度。2021年,工人的薪資漲幅必須達到6%以上,才能夠跟上物價的實際增長。因此我們說,工人們的工資可能確實是增長了,但他們買得起的東西卻更少了。
企業點評網站Glassdoor的高級經濟學家丹尼爾·趙指出:“有些工人表示,通脹讓他們的生活雪上加霜。還有一些工人認為,他們今年應當得到更高的加薪,因為他們還要頂上那些在‘大辭職潮’中跳槽的同事的工作。”
第一資本公司(Capital One)的消費情報主管梅麗莎·比爾登稱,當前美國的通脹問題給低收入家庭帶來的影響尤為突出。第一資本公司最近對美國各收入群體收入狀況的抽樣調查顯示,過去三個月,在年收入低于2.5萬美元的低收入群體中,只有不到10%的人的非績效工資有所上漲,或是拿到了獎金。但在年收入10萬美元以上的群體中,漲薪比例則達到了30%。換言之,高收入者的漲薪幾率是低收入者的三倍,所以他們更可以從容應對生活成本的上漲。
同時,通脹也讓所有美國人感到了切膚之痛。第一資本公司的報告顯示,今年1月,有26%的消費者至少無力支付一筆賬單,62%的受訪者因為通脹而削減了自己的可支配支出。
比爾登說:“所有收入群體都感受到了通脹的影響,而且他們發現收入的增長并未跟上物價的漲幅。”
因此,高通脹給了工人要求今年更大幅度加薪的理由,工人們必然要在今年的工資談判中提出更高要求。世界大型企業聯合會(Conference Board)在2021年12月發布的一份報告預計,2022年企業的薪資漲幅將逼近4%。如果正如謝潑德森等經濟學家預計的那樣,未來幾個月美國通脹確實將有所放緩,那么工人們或許真的就將迎來實際工資和購買力的增長。
企業點評網站Glassdoor的高級經濟學家丹尼爾·趙建議道,既然現在的就業市場如此火熱,工人們如果在當前這份工作中得不到加薪,那么跳槽也是一個很好的選擇。
他說:“有了其他選擇,工人們就能夠更有底氣與現在的雇主談判。而為了留住人才,雇主們也會更加重視員工的意見,并且盡量滿足他們的薪資要求。”(財富中文網)
譯者:樸成奎
Some workers secured their largest raises in years in 2021 as companies competed to retain employees amid record-high job openings. But while the number on workers' paychecks might be higher, it's not going as far as they might have hoped, thanks to staggeringly high inflation in the U.S.
February continued the months-long streak of record-setting inflation: U.S. consumer prices were up 7.9% compared to a year ago, the highest increase since the early 1980s, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gas, food, and rent prices drove the increase. And with gas prices likely to keep rising because of the war in Ukraine, inflation is expected to get even worse.
"Headline inflation dodged the 8% bullet in February, but only by a tenth, and it will break that barrier quite comfortably in March," Ian Shepherdson, economist at Pantheon Economics, wrote in a research note. He expects inflation to reach a peak between 8.2% to 8.4% next month.
All of this is bad news for the average American—even many of those who were able to move to a better-paying job in the past year amid the so-called Great Resignation. The national average raise was 4.5% in 2021, the biggest hike in years but nowhere near enough to keep pace with rising prices. In 2021, workers would have had to receive at least a 6% pay hike to keep up with inflation in real terms. Workers might be earning more, but they can afford less.
“Some employees report that inflation adds insult to injury," says Daniel Zhao, senior economist at employee review site Glassdoor. And some "employees feel like they deserve larger raises than usual this year as they filled in for coworkers who resigned during the Great Resignation.”
The affordability pressures are especially painful for lower-income Americans, says Melissa Bearden, head of consumer intelligence at Capital One: 10% of those earning less than $25,000 per year received a non-performance-based raise or bonus in the past three months, compared to 30% of those earning at least $100,000, according to a new analysis from the Capital One Insights Center that surveyed a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults across income groups about their finances. Higher earners are three times as likely as lower earners to say that their wages have kept up with the cost of living.
But all Americans are feeling the sting. Capital One's report found that 26% of consumers were unable to pay at least one bill in January, and 62% of respondents have reduced their discretionary spending because of inflation.
“Americans of all income levels are feeling the impact of inflation but finding comparable wage growth elusive,” says Bearden.
That said, high inflation gives employees ammunition to ask for bigger raises this year, or ask for more in the salary negotiation process. A December report from the Conference Board predicts businesses will increase pay by almost 4% in 2022. And if inflation does slow down in the coming months, as Shepherdson and other economists anticipate, then workers could finally see real wage gains and an increase in purchasing power.
If a raise at an employee's current job isn't in the cards, Zhao says the best approach is to switch companies, particularly in such a hot market.
“Having outside options in hand can also help employees negotiate with their current employers by giving them better information about their market pay and more leverage," he says. "Employers would be wise to listen to their employees and meet their salary needs in order to retain talent."