新冠疫情自從在美國爆發至今已經過去了兩年多,許多美國人因此出現了“新冠疲勞癥”,這并不意外。如今,許多人準備開始過沒有疫情的新生活。
凱撒家庭基金會(Kaiser Family Foundation)在今年1月末進行的調查顯示,約四分之三來自不同年齡、性別、種族、政治立場和收入群體的成年人表示,“疲倦”和“沮喪”最能代表他們對疫情現狀的感受。
2021年冬天爆發的奧密克戎疫情在過去幾個月內影響了數百萬人。隨著這波疫情慢慢結束,許多美國人對后疫情時代的暑期充滿了期待,希望今年夏天能夠摘掉口罩并取消社交隔離政策。然而,當人們正在準備再次暢享夏日時光的時候,專家們卻認為新冠病毒之前曾經多次讓我們措手不及,而且要預測未來五個月的疫情狀況幾乎是不可能的。
許多人希望2022年夏季美國將徹底結束疫情,并取消疫情限制措施,但流行病專家們提出了警告。出現新變異株的風險可能隨時導致情況發生變化,就像2021年夏天出現的德爾塔變異毒株,使疫情將很快結束的想法變成了泡影。此外,下一個新冠病毒變異毒株極有可能比奧密克戎變異毒株的毒性和致命性更強。據美國疾病控制與預防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)統計,美國每天依舊有超過10萬人感染奧密克戎變異毒株。
麥吉爾大學(McGill University)的心臟病學家、流行病學家和副教授克里斯托弗·拉博斯對《財富》雜志表示:“未來在極大程度上是不可知的,而且依舊有太多變量可能影響最終的結果。”
與病毒共存意味著什么
美國許多城市和州已經放寬了疫情限制措施,并取消了配戴口罩的強制規定。
今年3月早些時候,紐約州和加利福尼亞州取消了對已經接種疫苗人群在室內配戴口罩的強制規定;新澤西州、華盛頓州和新墨西哥州取消了校內配戴口罩的強制規定;在伊利諾伊州,芝加哥市的市長洛麗·萊特福特于3月2日宣布該市將在下周取消口罩規定。事實上,夏威夷成為美國唯一一個現在仍然執行口罩強制規定的州。
這種變化不止發生在美國。英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜于2月底在議會宣布,英國計劃“與病毒共存”,包括結束所有與新冠疫情有關的限制措施。
雖然各國以及美國各州正在紛紛取消口罩規定和疫情限制措施,但專家們始終認為病毒會不斷變化。未來一旦出現新變異株,根據病毒的嚴重性和傳播力,可能還需要重新執行限制措施和公共健康措施。
拉博斯說:“所有人都希望不再出現新的變異株,但我認為我們至少應該為出現新變異毒株的可能性做好計劃。”
例如配戴口罩和在戶外舉行活動等一系列預防性措施經過實踐檢驗,可以幫助人們決定他們想要如何度過今年夏天。隨著越來越多的新冠治療藥物上市,包括針對特定變異毒株的單克隆抗體,它們也可能開始發揮更重要的作用。
拉博斯指出,“與病毒共存”必定會伴隨搖擺不定的公共衛生警告。目前越來越多國家的政府官員提到“與病毒共存”這種說法。但這并不意味著我們要忽視病毒的存在,或者放棄到目前為止行之有效的預防性措施。
拉博斯稱:“學習如何與病毒共存,不意味著停止疫苗接種;也不意味著在公共場合不需要戴口罩。你可以在學習的過程中,采取基本措施保護好自己。”
減少限制和約束
專家們接受《財富》雜志采訪時認為,未來充滿不確定性,但他們預計美國人今年夏季的出行不會像2021年一樣受到嚴重破壞。
美國加州大學洛杉磯分校(UCLA)的流行病學教授、傳染病專家蒂莫西·布魯爾對《財富》雜志表示:“我認為[一種全新的變異株]可能影響人們夏天的計劃,但不會讓人們徹底無法出行。”
布魯爾指出,2021年的圣誕節出行被奧密克戎變異毒株徹底打亂,當時隨著病例數屢創新高,有數千次航班被取消,美國各地的公司紛紛調整了營業時間。
但他認為這種規模的混亂不太可能重現,與過去兩年相比,隨著群體免疫力的提高和更多新冠治療方法的出現,人們能夠更輕松地制定出行計劃,去更遠的地方度假。“除非死亡率突然開始飆升,否則我認為人們的行動會逐步變得更自由,更愿意參與更多活動。”
但很可惜,對于免疫力低下和有潛在健康問題的人群來說,病毒可能依舊是對他們的生活有重要影響的一個因素。
布魯爾說:“如果你免疫力低下,相對于已經接種疫苗和加強針的人群以及健康的年輕人,你可能不太愿意制定出行計劃或者參與活動。我并不認為所有人的情況完全相同。”
加州大學洛杉磯分校的心理學與健康政策和管理教授維姬·梅斯指出,對于出行的隔離或檢測要求或許不會像以前那么繁瑣。她也認為,今年夏天放寬限制,讓人們有機會彌補在新冠疫情期間損失的時間。
梅斯表示:“2022年需要考慮的一件事情是,人們也需要重新審視他們所遭遇的損失。有時候人們之所以去度假,可能是為了追憶奶奶以前喜歡做的事情,或者因為爺爺曾經帶我們去過某個地方。”
她認為,今年夏天的旅行和其他活動可以給人們提供一次期待已久的情感宣泄的機會,重新找回在新冠疫情期間失去的一切。
梅斯稱:“我希望這場旅行的名義應該是在家人之間重新建立聯系,緬懷在這場疫情中逝去的人們,以及珍惜我們彼此在一起的時間。這將真正撫平一些人心靈上的創傷。”(財富中文網)
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
新冠疫情自從在美國爆發至今已經過去了兩年多,許多美國人因此出現了“新冠疲勞癥”,這并不意外。如今,許多人準備開始過沒有疫情的新生活。
凱撒家庭基金會(Kaiser Family Foundation)在今年1月末進行的調查顯示,約四分之三來自不同年齡、性別、種族、政治立場和收入群體的成年人表示,“疲倦”和“沮喪”最能代表他們對疫情現狀的感受。
2021年冬天爆發的奧密克戎疫情在過去幾個月內影響了數百萬人。隨著這波疫情慢慢結束,許多美國人對后疫情時代的暑期充滿了期待,希望今年夏天能夠摘掉口罩并取消社交隔離政策。然而,當人們正在準備再次暢享夏日時光的時候,專家們卻認為新冠病毒之前曾經多次讓我們措手不及,而且要預測未來五個月的疫情狀況幾乎是不可能的。
許多人希望2022年夏季美國將徹底結束疫情,并取消疫情限制措施,但流行病專家們提出了警告。出現新變異株的風險可能隨時導致情況發生變化,就像2021年夏天出現的德爾塔變異毒株,使疫情將很快結束的想法變成了泡影。此外,下一個新冠病毒變異毒株極有可能比奧密克戎變異毒株的毒性和致命性更強。據美國疾病控制與預防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)統計,美國每天依舊有超過10萬人感染奧密克戎變異毒株。
麥吉爾大學(McGill University)的心臟病學家、流行病學家和副教授克里斯托弗·拉博斯對《財富》雜志表示:“未來在極大程度上是不可知的,而且依舊有太多變量可能影響最終的結果。”
與病毒共存意味著什么
美國許多城市和州已經放寬了疫情限制措施,并取消了配戴口罩的強制規定。
今年3月早些時候,紐約州和加利福尼亞州取消了對已經接種疫苗人群在室內配戴口罩的強制規定;新澤西州、華盛頓州和新墨西哥州取消了校內配戴口罩的強制規定;在伊利諾伊州,芝加哥市的市長洛麗·萊特福特于3月2日宣布該市將在下周取消口罩規定。事實上,夏威夷成為美國唯一一個現在仍然執行口罩強制規定的州。
這種變化不止發生在美國。英國首相鮑里斯·約翰遜于2月底在議會宣布,英國計劃“與病毒共存”,包括結束所有與新冠疫情有關的限制措施。
雖然各國以及美國各州正在紛紛取消口罩規定和疫情限制措施,但專家們始終認為病毒會不斷變化。未來一旦出現新變異株,根據病毒的嚴重性和傳播力,可能還需要重新執行限制措施和公共健康措施。
拉博斯說:“所有人都希望不再出現新的變異株,但我認為我們至少應該為出現新變異毒株的可能性做好計劃。”
例如配戴口罩和在戶外舉行活動等一系列預防性措施經過實踐檢驗,可以幫助人們決定他們想要如何度過今年夏天。隨著越來越多的新冠治療藥物上市,包括針對特定變異毒株的單克隆抗體,它們也可能開始發揮更重要的作用。
拉博斯指出,“與病毒共存”必定會伴隨搖擺不定的公共衛生警告。目前越來越多國家的政府官員提到“與病毒共存”這種說法。但這并不意味著我們要忽視病毒的存在,或者放棄到目前為止行之有效的預防性措施。
拉博斯稱:“學習如何與病毒共存,不意味著停止疫苗接種;也不意味著在公共場合不需要戴口罩。你可以在學習的過程中,采取基本措施保護好自己。”
減少限制和約束
專家們接受《財富》雜志采訪時認為,未來充滿不確定性,但他們預計美國人今年夏季的出行不會像2021年一樣受到嚴重破壞。
美國加州大學洛杉磯分校(UCLA)的流行病學教授、傳染病專家蒂莫西·布魯爾對《財富》雜志表示:“我認為[一種全新的變異株]可能影響人們夏天的計劃,但不會讓人們徹底無法出行。”
布魯爾指出,2021年的圣誕節出行被奧密克戎變異毒株徹底打亂,當時隨著病例數屢創新高,有數千次航班被取消,美國各地的公司紛紛調整了營業時間。
但他認為這種規模的混亂不太可能重現,與過去兩年相比,隨著群體免疫力的提高和更多新冠治療方法的出現,人們能夠更輕松地制定出行計劃,去更遠的地方度假。“除非死亡率突然開始飆升,否則我認為人們的行動會逐步變得更自由,更愿意參與更多活動。”
但很可惜,對于免疫力低下和有潛在健康問題的人群來說,病毒可能依舊是對他們的生活有重要影響的一個因素。
布魯爾說:“如果你免疫力低下,相對于已經接種疫苗和加強針的人群以及健康的年輕人,你可能不太愿意制定出行計劃或者參與活動。我并不認為所有人的情況完全相同。”
加州大學洛杉磯分校的心理學與健康政策和管理教授維姬·梅斯指出,對于出行的隔離或檢測要求或許不會像以前那么繁瑣。她也認為,今年夏天放寬限制,讓人們有機會彌補在新冠疫情期間損失的時間。
梅斯表示:“2022年需要考慮的一件事情是,人們也需要重新審視他們所遭遇的損失。有時候人們之所以去度假,可能是為了追憶奶奶以前喜歡做的事情,或者因為爺爺曾經帶我們去過某個地方。”
她認為,今年夏天的旅行和其他活動可以給人們提供一次期待已久的情感宣泄的機會,重新找回在新冠疫情期間失去的一切。
梅斯稱:“我希望這場旅行的名義應該是在家人之間重新建立聯系,緬懷在這場疫情中逝去的人們,以及珍惜我們彼此在一起的時間。這將真正撫平一些人心靈上的創傷。”(財富中文網)
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
It’s been more than two years now since the coronavirus pandemic first arrived in the U.S., and it’s no surprise that “COVID fatigue” is setting in among many Americans who are ready to move on from the pandemic.
Roughly three in four adults across age, gender, race, political affiliation, and income groups said that “tired” and “frustrated” best describe how they feel about the current state of the pandemic, according to a late January survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
And as we begin to finally inch past the Omicron winter surge that infected millions in the past few months, many Americans are looking forward to the promise of a post-pandemic summer, free from mask mandates and social distancing. But even though people are ready to enjoy their summers again, experts agree that the virus has blindsided us many times before, and predicting what the pandemic will look like in five months is next to impossible.
But epidemiologists caution against hopes that summer 2022 is going to be entirely COVID- and restriction-free. The risk of a potential new variant could change the game at any time, much like how the Delta variant’s emergence last summer dispelled any ideas that the pandemic would soon be over. And the next coronavirus variant could also very well be more virulent and potentially more deadly than the Omicron variant that is still infecting more than 100,000 Americans each day, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“To a very large degree, the future is unknowable, and there's still too many possible variables that could influence the ultimate outcome,” Christopher Labos, a cardiologist, epidemiologist, and associate professor at McGill University, told Fortune.
What living with the virus means
Many cities and states across the U.S. have already eased COVID restrictions and lifted mask mandates.
New York and California did away with indoor mask mandates for vaccinated individuals earlier this month; New Jersey, Washington, and New Mexico, among others, ended mask mandates in schools; in Illinois, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced on March 2 the city would end its mask mandate next week. In fact, Hawaii is now the only U.S. state to still have a mask mandate.
And it’s not just the U.S. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in Parliament at the end of February the country’s plans for “living with COVID,” which included ending all coronavirus-induced restrictions.
But while countries and states are scrapping mask mandates and restrictions right now, experts insist that the virus is ever-changing. Should new variants emerge, restrictions and public health measures may also resurface, depending on the severity and transmissibility of the virus at any one point in time.
“Everyone's hoping that there are no more variants, but I think we need to at least plan for the possibility that there might be,” Labos said.
A combination of tried-and-tested preventative measures, such as masking and keeping activities outdoors, can help people decide what they feel comfortable with doing this summer. A slew of therapeutic treatments for COVID-19 might also start playing a more prominent role as they become more available, including variant-specific monoclonal antibodies.
Labos says that fluctuating public health advisories are going to be an inevitable part of “living with the virus,” a phrase being used increasingly by government officials around the world. But this does not mean that we should ignore the virus’s existence or drop the preventative measures that have been successful so far.
“Learning how to live with the virus doesn't mean stopping the vaccination campaign; it doesn't mean you have to not wear a mask in a public setting,” Labos said. “You can learn how to live with something while still taking basic measures to protect yourself.”
Fewer restrictions, and fewer inhibitions
Experts that Fortune spoke with say that the future is uncertain, but they are not expecting major disruptions to summer travel like the U.S. has experienced in the past.
“I think [a new variant] would likely impact people's summer plans, but it wouldn't shut them down completely,” Dr. Timothy Brewer, professor of epidemiology at UCLA and expert in infectious diseases, told Fortune.
The Omicron variant, Brewer pointed out, completely disrupted Christmas travel last year, when thousands of flights were canceled and businesses across the country changed their hours as caseloads hit record highs.
But Brewer thinks that it is unlikely we will see disruption on such a scale again, as wider immunity and more readily available treatment methods for COVID-19 may help people feel more comfortable making travel plans and venturing farther than they have over the past two years. “Unless the death rates suddenly start to skyrocket, I think people will continue to gradually open up what they're doing and expand their willingness of what to do.”
For immunocompromised groups and people with underlying health issues, however, the virus may unfortunately continue to be an important factor in their lives.
“If you're someone who's immunocompromised, you might be less willing to make travel plans or engage in activities than someone who's fully vaccinated and boosted and otherwise young and healthy,” Brewer said. “I don't think it's going to be the same for every person.”
Quarantine or testing requirements for travel will likely become much less cumbersome, according to Vickie Mays, a professor of psychology and health policy and management at UCLA, who also thinks that looser restrictions this summer will also give people an opportunity to make up for time lost during the pandemic.
“One of the things to think about in 2022 is that people are also needing to revisit some of the losses that they have had. So sometimes going away on a vacation will be to pay respects to what grandma used to like doing, or because grandpa took us there,” Mays said.
Mays thinks that travel and other activities this summer can give people a cathartic and long-awaited chance to reconnect with what may have been lost during the pandemic.
“Some of this travel, I hope, is in the name of being able to reconnect as a family, celebrating the life of those who might have been lost to this pandemic, and appreciating time that we spend with each other,” Mays said. “That is really going to be healing for some people.”