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俄烏沖突爆發(fā),投資者紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向美元

市場(chǎng)對(duì)美元的強(qiáng)勁需求壓低了歐洲其他貨幣的匯率。

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2月24日,歐洲數(shù)十年來(lái)最大的安全威脅影響市場(chǎng),美元盤中漲幅達(dá)到近兩年來(lái)最高。

彭博美元指數(shù)(Bloomberg Dollar Index)的漲幅高達(dá)1.4%,接近2021年最高水平,但隨著美國(guó)科技股的反彈,漲幅有所降低。在俄羅斯對(duì)烏克蘭發(fā)起軍事行動(dòng)后,交易員紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向安全的美元,美元兌十國(guó)集團(tuán)成員國(guó)貨幣的匯率均走高。

歐洲大陸的投資者紛紛涌入避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn),歐元兌瑞士法郎跌至近七年低點(diǎn)。匯率跌幅高達(dá)1%,為三年多來(lái)最大,之后略有反彈。歐元兌美元一度下跌1.8%至1.1106美元,匯率為2020年6月以來(lái)最低。

市場(chǎng)對(duì)美元的強(qiáng)勁需求壓低了歐洲其他貨幣的匯率,瑞典、挪威和丹麥的貨幣匯率下跌至少1%。在俄羅斯的坦克開(kāi)進(jìn)烏克蘭后,就連傳統(tǒng)的避風(fēng)港瑞士法郎兌美元的匯率也出現(xiàn)下跌。

“廣義美元方面,本交易日最重要的一點(diǎn)在于,盡管隔夜指數(shù)掉期曲線降低了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息預(yù)期,美元還是出現(xiàn)了反彈。”蒙特利爾銀行資本市場(chǎng)公司(BMO Capital Markets)的歐洲外匯策略主管斯蒂芬·加洛在一份報(bào)告中表示?!爱?dāng)前是純粹由‘避險(xiǎn)’主導(dǎo)的外匯市場(chǎng),畢竟北美和歐洲之間存在地理距離?!?/p>

歐元方面,在今年2月早些時(shí)候歐洲央行(European Central Bank)表達(dá)更強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度后,之前歐元積攢的增幅幾乎歸零。沖突導(dǎo)致油價(jià)飆升,打算收緊政策應(yīng)對(duì)通脹的官員面臨的前景愈加復(fù)雜。當(dāng)前的通脹已經(jīng)達(dá)到數(shù)十年來(lái)最高。不過(guò),貨幣市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為加息機(jī)會(huì)不大。

“外匯投資者認(rèn)為,危機(jī)一旦惡化將加劇歐元區(qū)復(fù)蘇的滯脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn),導(dǎo)致歐洲央行政策正?;招跷ⅲ瑢?duì)歐元造成壓力?!狈▏?guó)農(nóng)業(yè)信貸銀行(Credit Agricole SA)的十國(guó)集團(tuán)貨幣策略主管瓦倫丁·馬里諾夫說(shuō)。

交易者預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)更劇烈波動(dòng)以及匯率進(jìn)一步下跌。隨著市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩不已,之后一周歐元-美元對(duì)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的對(duì)沖成本已經(jīng)達(dá)到2020年12月以來(lái)最高,而從相同期間期權(quán)呈現(xiàn)的情緒來(lái)看,市場(chǎng)對(duì)歐元的預(yù)期為2020年3月以來(lái)最悲觀。

2月24日判斷加息的交易者略有減少,不過(guò)市場(chǎng)還是預(yù)測(cè)歐洲央行在今年年底前將加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)將加息六次,英格蘭銀行(Bank of England)將加息五次。英鎊兌美元下跌了2%。

最近幾周,各國(guó)央行官員均承認(rèn),由于俄羅斯和北約(NATO)的盟國(guó)之間在烏克蘭問(wèn)題上的緊張局勢(shì)不斷升級(jí),能源價(jià)格前景將受到影響。如今,各國(guó)要在孤立俄羅斯與通脹走高的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果之間做出選擇。

歐洲央行表示,正“密切關(guān)注”烏克蘭局勢(shì),將在3月10日的利率決策會(huì)議上“全面評(píng)估經(jīng)濟(jì)前景”。歐洲央行管理委員會(huì)的成員加布里埃爾·馬赫盧夫指出,烏克蘭危機(jī)可能不會(huì)影響下次會(huì)議上歐洲央行就迅速減少資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買達(dá)成一致。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

2月24日,歐洲數(shù)十年來(lái)最大的安全威脅影響市場(chǎng),美元盤中漲幅達(dá)到近兩年來(lái)最高。

彭博美元指數(shù)(Bloomberg Dollar Index)的漲幅高達(dá)1.4%,接近2021年最高水平,但隨著美國(guó)科技股的反彈,漲幅有所降低。在俄羅斯對(duì)烏克蘭發(fā)起軍事行動(dòng)后,交易員紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向安全的美元,美元兌十國(guó)集團(tuán)成員國(guó)貨幣的匯率均走高。

歐洲大陸的投資者紛紛涌入避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn),歐元兌瑞士法郎跌至近七年低點(diǎn)。匯率跌幅高達(dá)1%,為三年多來(lái)最大,之后略有反彈。歐元兌美元一度下跌1.8%至1.1106美元,匯率為2020年6月以來(lái)最低。

市場(chǎng)對(duì)美元的強(qiáng)勁需求壓低了歐洲其他貨幣的匯率,瑞典、挪威和丹麥的貨幣匯率下跌至少1%。在俄羅斯的坦克開(kāi)進(jìn)烏克蘭后,就連傳統(tǒng)的避風(fēng)港瑞士法郎兌美元的匯率也出現(xiàn)下跌。

“廣義美元方面,本交易日最重要的一點(diǎn)在于,盡管隔夜指數(shù)掉期曲線降低了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息預(yù)期,美元還是出現(xiàn)了反彈。”蒙特利爾銀行資本市場(chǎng)公司(BMO Capital Markets)的歐洲外匯策略主管斯蒂芬·加洛在一份報(bào)告中表示?!爱?dāng)前是純粹由‘避險(xiǎn)’主導(dǎo)的外匯市場(chǎng),畢竟北美和歐洲之間存在地理距離?!?/p>

歐元方面,在今年2月早些時(shí)候歐洲央行(European Central Bank)表達(dá)更強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度后,之前歐元積攢的增幅幾乎歸零。沖突導(dǎo)致油價(jià)飆升,打算收緊政策應(yīng)對(duì)通脹的官員面臨的前景愈加復(fù)雜。當(dāng)前的通脹已經(jīng)達(dá)到數(shù)十年來(lái)最高。不過(guò),貨幣市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為加息機(jī)會(huì)不大。

“外匯投資者認(rèn)為,危機(jī)一旦惡化將加劇歐元區(qū)復(fù)蘇的滯脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn),導(dǎo)致歐洲央行政策正?;招跷?,對(duì)歐元造成壓力?!狈▏?guó)農(nóng)業(yè)信貸銀行(Credit Agricole SA)的十國(guó)集團(tuán)貨幣策略主管瓦倫丁·馬里諾夫說(shuō)。

交易者預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)更劇烈波動(dòng)以及匯率進(jìn)一步下跌。隨著市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩不已,之后一周歐元-美元對(duì)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的對(duì)沖成本已經(jīng)達(dá)到2020年12月以來(lái)最高,而從相同期間期權(quán)呈現(xiàn)的情緒來(lái)看,市場(chǎng)對(duì)歐元的預(yù)期為2020年3月以來(lái)最悲觀。

2月24日判斷加息的交易者略有減少,不過(guò)市場(chǎng)還是預(yù)測(cè)歐洲央行在今年年底前將加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)將加息六次,英格蘭銀行(Bank of England)將加息五次。英鎊兌美元下跌了2%。

最近幾周,各國(guó)央行官員均承認(rèn),由于俄羅斯和北約(NATO)的盟國(guó)之間在烏克蘭問(wèn)題上的緊張局勢(shì)不斷升級(jí),能源價(jià)格前景將受到影響。如今,各國(guó)要在孤立俄羅斯與通脹走高的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果之間做出選擇。

歐洲央行表示,正“密切關(guān)注”烏克蘭局勢(shì),將在3月10日的利率決策會(huì)議上“全面評(píng)估經(jīng)濟(jì)前景”。歐洲央行管理委員會(huì)的成員加布里埃爾·馬赫盧夫指出,烏克蘭危機(jī)可能不會(huì)影響下次會(huì)議上歐洲央行就迅速減少資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買達(dá)成一致。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

A gauge of the dollar’s strength had its largest intraday gain in nearly two years on February 24 as markets grappled with the biggest security threat in Europe in decades.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose as much as 1.4%, approaching its highest levels of the past year, before paring gains as U.S. technology shares rebounded. Traders flocked to the safety of the greenback after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sending the U.S. currency higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers.

On the continent, the euro dropped to a nearly seven-year low against the Swiss franc as investors flocked to haven assets. The pair dropped as much as 1%, the largest slide in more than three years, before rebounding slightly. The common currency posted an even bigger decline against the greenback, falling as much as 1.8% to 1.1106, its lowest level since June 2020.

Demand for the dollar crushed other European currencies, with those of Sweden, Norway and Denmark declining at least 1%. Even the Swiss franc, a traditional haven, lost ground against the dollar as Russian tanks moved into Ukraine.

“For the broad USD, one of the most important aspects of today’s trading session is that the currency has rallied in spite of the OIS curve paring back Fed rate hike expectations,” Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. “We are observing a purely a ‘risk-off’ dominated FX market with an understandable geographical separation between North America and Europe.”

The euro, for its part, erased what remained of gains accrued after the European Central Bank struck a more hawkish tone earlier February. The invasion sent oil prices soaring, complicating the outlook for officials planning to tighten policy to deal with inflation that’s already at the highest in decades. Still, money-markets pared bets on interest-rate hikes.

“FX investors believe that any intensification of the crisis will aggravate the stagflation risks to the euro-zone recovery, delay any meaningful policy normalization by the ECB and weigh on the euro,” said Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole SA.

Traders are expecting more volatility and further losses. The cost of hedging price swings in the euro-dollar pair over the next week reached its highest level since December 2020 in the midst of the market turmoil, while a measure of options sentiment over the same tenor is at its most bearish on the common currency since March 2020.

While wagers on rate increases were trimmed slightly on February 24, one quarter-point hike is still expected from the ECB by year-end. Six are expected by the Federal Reserve and five by the Bank of England. The pound slid as much as 2% against the dollar.

In recent weeks, central-bank officials have acknowledged that the escalating tensions between Russia and NATO allies over Ukraine will affect the outlook for energy prices. Now they need to weigh the economic consequences of measures to isolate Russia against higher inflation.

The ECB said it is “closely monitoring” the situation in Ukraine and will conduct a “comprehensive assessment of the economic outlook” at their rate-decision meeting on March 10. Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said the crisis over Ukraine probably won’t keep the ECB from agreeing on a faster wind-down of asset purchases at the next meeting.

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