美國勞動力短缺，助推通脹走高
Megan Leonhardt
2021-12-19
勞動力持續短缺迫使企業不得不提高員工薪酬。而這反過來可能影響通貨膨脹。
雖然最近幾個月的失業率大幅下降，但與新冠疫情爆發之前的水平相比，美國的就業人數依舊減少了約400萬人。PNC公司的格斯·福謝最近告訴《財富》雜志，由于勞動力數量也少于新冠疫情爆發之前的水平，因此隨著經濟持續復蘇，對勞動力的需求相當強勁。截至今年10月，美國約有1100萬個職位空缺，換工作的員工數量依舊處在歷史最高水平。
這種高壓力的環境意味著雇主開始感到不安，為了留住和吸引員工做好了被討價還價的準備。事實上，據美國勞工統計局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）統計，過去一年美國員工的時薪上漲了4.8%。今年11月，私營企業員工的平均時薪為31.03美元，相比之下2020年2月只有28.51美元。
工資上漲已經開始推高商品和服務價格。過去12個月，商品和服務價格上漲6.8%，創下近四十年來的最大漲幅。
PNC的高級經濟學家比爾·亞當斯說：“人工成本快速上漲也是導致通貨膨脹的原因之一。”人工成本上漲會增加商品和服務成本，當消費者感覺手頭寬裕的時候也會刺激消費。
人工成本上漲會推高整個供應鏈的原材料和產價格。例如，如果肉類加工廠需要提高員工薪酬，它們通常會通過提高產品價格來轉嫁成本。餐廳要為采購肉類支付更高的價格，這意味著它們可能需要提高菜單價格。12月14日發布的最新生產者物價指數顯示，今年11月企業支付的原材料價格較去年上漲了9.6%。雖然有許多因素導致價格上漲，包括供應鏈問題等，但勞動力不足也是一個重要原因。
這個問題產生了廣泛的影響。約78%的小企業主表示受到了通貨膨脹的影響，63%的小企業為了保持競爭力，在過去一年已經提高了產品或服務的價格。
如果企業為了轉嫁人工成本提高價格，在這種情況下價格就很難快速回落。因為勞動力是“非常棘手的”成本因素，這意味著一旦企業提高了薪酬，就很難再降低商品或服務的成本。富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的首席農業經濟學家邁克爾·斯萬森稱：“你不可能告訴某個員工：‘嘿，我要給你加薪到每小時18美元。’但等到情況好轉之后卻說：‘我要把你的時薪下調到15美元。’”他還指出：“員工的工資一旦提高之后就很難下調。”
工資上漲還會刺激消費者需求，因為許多美國人有更多資金可以用于消費。比如，芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行（Federal Reserve of Chicago）的研究發現，在最低工資上漲1美元的第二年，低收入員工的消費增加了2800美元。
哈佛大學（Harvard University）的約翰·F·肯尼迪政府學院（John F. Kennedy School of Government）的教授、經濟學家賈森·弗曼在一篇文章中表示，美國消費者支出大幅增加。他認為，雖然實物商品消費預計會有所下降，但依舊高于許多人的預期。
弗曼稱：“我想現在所有人都有足夠多的玩具、樂器、體育器材等。”但他表示在醫療保健、餐飲和旅游等方面的服務消費可能增加，這意味著企業需要增加招聘或者提高員工薪酬，而這會進一步推高成本。與實物商品相比，服務成本更多取決于人工成本。
通貨膨脹和勞動力市場面臨的最大的不確定性是新冠疫情的變化。亞當斯表示，如果美國人因為擔心健康問題，依舊不愿意從事需要與公眾大量接觸的工作，勞動力市場就會持續緊縮，而工資快速上漲則會推動通脹率繼續攀升。這個問題尤其會影響55歲以上的美國人重回職場的意愿。許多這個年齡段的美國人在新冠疫情期間提前退休或離開了勞動力市場，至今沒有重新就業。
亞當斯補充說：“冬季新冠疫情的再次爆發，給勞動力參與率的前景蒙上了陰影，并且帶來了通脹持續攀升的風險。”（財富中文網）
翻譯：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
勞動力持續短缺迫使企業不得不提高員工薪酬。而這反過來可能影響通貨膨脹。
雖然最近幾個月的失業率大幅下降，但與新冠疫情爆發之前的水平相比，美國的就業人數依舊減少了約400萬人。PNC公司的格斯·福謝最近告訴《財富》雜志，由于勞動力數量也少于新冠疫情爆發之前的水平，因此隨著經濟持續復蘇，對勞動力的需求相當強勁。截至今年10月，美國約有1100萬個職位空缺，換工作的員工數量依舊處在歷史最高水平。
這種高壓力的環境意味著雇主開始感到不安，為了留住和吸引員工做好了被討價還價的準備。事實上，據美國勞工統計局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）統計，過去一年美國員工的時薪上漲了4.8%。今年11月，私營企業員工的平均時薪為31.03美元，相比之下2020年2月只有28.51美元。
工資上漲已經開始推高商品和服務價格。過去12個月，商品和服務價格上漲6.8%，創下近四十年來的最大漲幅。
PNC的高級經濟學家比爾·亞當斯說：“人工成本快速上漲也是導致通貨膨脹的原因之一。”人工成本上漲會增加商品和服務成本，當消費者感覺手頭寬裕的時候也會刺激消費。
人工成本上漲會推高整個供應鏈的原材料和產價格。例如，如果肉類加工廠需要提高員工薪酬，它們通常會通過提高產品價格來轉嫁成本。餐廳要為采購肉類支付更高的價格，這意味著它們可能需要提高菜單價格。12月14日發布的最新生產者物價指數顯示，今年11月企業支付的原材料價格較去年上漲了9.6%。雖然有許多因素導致價格上漲，包括供應鏈問題等，但勞動力不足也是一個重要原因。
這個問題產生了廣泛的影響。約78%的小企業主表示受到了通貨膨脹的影響，63%的小企業為了保持競爭力，在過去一年已經提高了產品或服務的價格。
如果企業為了轉嫁人工成本提高價格，在這種情況下價格就很難快速回落。因為勞動力是“非常棘手的”成本因素，這意味著一旦企業提高了薪酬，就很難再降低商品或服務的成本。富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的首席農業經濟學家邁克爾·斯萬森稱：“你不可能告訴某個員工：‘嘿，我要給你加薪到每小時18美元。’但等到情況好轉之后卻說：‘我要把你的時薪下調到15美元。’”他還指出：“員工的工資一旦提高之后就很難下調。”
工資上漲還會刺激消費者需求，因為許多美國人有更多資金可以用于消費。比如，芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行（Federal Reserve of Chicago）的研究發現，在最低工資上漲1美元的第二年，低收入員工的消費增加了2800美元。
哈佛大學（Harvard University）的約翰·F·肯尼迪政府學院（John F. Kennedy School of Government）的教授、經濟學家賈森·弗曼在一篇文章中表示，美國消費者支出大幅增加。他認為，雖然實物商品消費預計會有所下降，但依舊高于許多人的預期。
弗曼稱：“我想現在所有人都有足夠多的玩具、樂器、體育器材等。”但他表示在醫療保健、餐飲和旅游等方面的服務消費可能增加，這意味著企業需要增加招聘或者提高員工薪酬，而這會進一步推高成本。與實物商品相比，服務成本更多取決于人工成本。
通貨膨脹和勞動力市場面臨的最大的不確定性是新冠疫情的變化。亞當斯表示，如果美國人因為擔心健康問題，依舊不愿意從事需要與公眾大量接觸的工作，勞動力市場就會持續緊縮，而工資快速上漲則會推動通脹率繼續攀升。這個問題尤其會影響55歲以上的美國人重回職場的意愿。許多這個年齡段的美國人在新冠疫情期間提前退休或離開了勞動力市場，至今沒有重新就業。
亞當斯補充說：“冬季新冠疫情的再次爆發，給勞動力參與率的前景蒙上了陰影，并且帶來了通脹持續攀升的風險。”（財富中文網）
翻譯：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
As the labor crunch drags on, it’s forcing companies to bump up employee pay. That, in turn, can affect inflation.
Despite the unemployment rate tumbling in recent months, the U.S. is still down about 4 million workers compared with pre-pandemic levels. Because the labor force is also smaller than it was before the pandemic, the demand for labor is strong as the economy continues to recover, which has exacerbated the shortage, PNC’s Gus Faucher recently told Fortune. Currently there are about 11 million jobs open as of October, and the number of workers changing jobs is still at record levels.
This pressure cooker situation means that employers are on edge—and ready to bargain in order to retain and attract workers. In fact, U.S. workers’ hourly pay has increased by 4.8% over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private employees earned an average of $31.03 per hour in November, compared to $28.51 in February 2020.
That wage growth has been starting to feed into the rising prices of goods and services, which rose 6.8% over the last 12 months, the largest rate increase in nearly four decades.
“Rapid increases in labor costs are also contributing to inflation,” says Bill Adams, PNC’s senior economist. That’s because labor costs can help drive up the cost of goods and services—and can also boost spending if consumers feel more flush in the pocket.
When labor costs increase, that can boost raw material and product prices throughout the supply chain. If meatpacking plants, for example, need to increase worker pay, then they typically raise prices to cover the cost. But now restaurants are paying more for meat, and that means restaurants may need to bump up their menu prices. Already, the prices that companies paid for supplies in November were up 9.6% over the last year's costs, according to the latest producer price index published on December 14. While that jump reflects a number of factors, including supply-chain concerns, labor also plays a part.
This has a broad effect. About 78% of small-business owners say they have been impacted by inflation, and 63% already bumped up the prices of their products or services within the past year to compete.
And those prices, when increased to cover labor costs, are not likely to immediately tumble. Labor is a “very sticky” cost factor, and that means once companies award raises, it’s difficult to bring the cost of a good or service back down. “It’s really hard to tell somebody, ‘Hey, I'm going to bump your paycheck up to $18 an hour,’ and then when things kind of settle down, you’re like, ‘I’m gonna kick you back to $15,’” said Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo. “Higher wages are something that once it gets built in, it’s kind of permanent,” Swanson adds.
Higher wages also feed consumer demand, since many Americans have more to spend. For example, low-wage workers spent an additional $2,800 in the year following a $1 minimum wage pay increase, according to research from the Federal Reserve of Chicago.
The U.S. has experienced a huge increase in consumer spending, writes Jason Furman, an economist and professor at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. And while spending on physical goods is expected to decline, Furman says it has stayed higher than many people expected.
“I would have thought everyone had enough toys, musical instruments, sports equipment, etc., by now,” Furman said. But he added that spending on services such as health care, restaurant visits, and travel is likely to rise, which will probably mean that companies need to hire or pay more—again, driving up the costs. And the cost of services is based far more on labor costs than physical goods.
The biggest uncertainty around inflation and the labor market is how the pandemic will evolve. If health fears continue to make Americans leery about taking jobs with a lot of interaction with the public, the labor market will keep tightening, and rapid wage growth will continue to fuel high inflation, Adams says. That could especially affect the rate at which Americans over the age of 55 are willing to reenter the workforce. Many of these workers retired early or exited the workforce during the pandemic and have yet to return.
“The winter surge of the pandemic is bad news for the prospects for labor force participation and creates upside risks for the inflation outlook,” Adams adds.
財富中文網所刊載內容之知識產權為財富媒體知識產權有限公司及/或相關權利人專屬所有或持有。未經許可，禁止進行轉載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
