一元店三十年來首次漲價，是通脹所致嗎？
Nicole Goodkind
2021-11-30
上周，平價零售商Dollar Tree宣布，所有門店起價從1美元上調(diào)至1.25美元。專家紛紛大呼通脹來了。
誠然，當(dāng)前的通脹處于31年來的最高水平，10月CPI同比增長6.2%，但圍繞Dollar Tree種種可怕的說法存在夸大和誤導(dǎo)。這是該公司三十年歷史上第一次漲價，而且會維持很長一段時間。
“這一決定是持續(xù)性的，并不是為了應(yīng)對短期或暫時的市場狀況。”Dollar Tree的總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·維廷斯基在三季度財報中表示。“公司認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在比較適合告別一美元價位的限制，今后才能夠繼續(xù)為客戶提供極低的優(yōu)惠。”
根據(jù)美國勞工統(tǒng)計局（U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics）的CPI通脹計算器，1986年Dollar Tree開張時，一美元的購買力相當(dāng)于現(xiàn)在的2.25美元。2020年也是本輪通脹恐慌之前，一美元的購買力相當(dāng)于2.38美元。
幾年前，Dollar Tree就曾經(jīng)嘗試漲價。2015年，公司在收購競爭對手連鎖店Family Dollar時就開始轉(zhuǎn)變，因為Family Dollar商品的價格超過了一美元。通過細(xì)致測試和推廣，公司發(fā)現(xiàn)客戶似乎并未太在意漲價。根據(jù)Dollar Tree的財報，今年測試時約90%購物者表示，盡管價格漲了25美分，但仍然愿意繼續(xù)甚至更頻繁地前往購物。
這家公司在上周明確表示，價格變化不是直接應(yīng)對當(dāng)前的通脹率，但維廷斯基確實指出，價格上漲可以提升公司“管理整體業(yè)務(wù)方面的靈活性，特別是在動蕩的通脹環(huán)境下。”但他補(bǔ)充說，通脹也推動更多的顧客進(jìn)店購物，提振了業(yè)務(wù)。
“本季度結(jié)束時公司業(yè)績強(qiáng)勁，因為在通脹環(huán)境下，購物者越來越重視劃算。”他說。
第三季度，Dollar Tree在美國開設(shè)了125家新店，平均每天新開超過一家，銷售額增長近4%，達(dá)到64.2億美元。
然而，Dollar Tree漲價并非通脹指標(biāo)，也不應(yīng)該被用作通脹指標(biāo)。如果硬要當(dāng)成指標(biāo)，該公司向來定價一美元則表明，從1986年開張到2021年通脹增長率為0%，實際上卻是通脹率累積上漲了252個百分點。
顯然Dollar Tree漲價指標(biāo)無法體現(xiàn)真實通脹水平。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
上周，平價零售商Dollar Tree宣布，所有門店起價從1美元上調(diào)至1.25美元。專家紛紛大呼通脹來了。
誠然，當(dāng)前的通脹處于31年來的最高水平，10月CPI同比增長6.2%，但圍繞Dollar Tree種種可怕的說法存在夸大和誤導(dǎo)。這是該公司三十年歷史上第一次漲價，而且會維持很長一段時間。
“這一決定是持續(xù)性的，并不是為了應(yīng)對短期或暫時的市場狀況。”Dollar Tree的總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·維廷斯基在三季度財報中表示。“公司認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在比較適合告別一美元價位的限制，今后才能夠繼續(xù)為客戶提供極低的優(yōu)惠。”
根據(jù)美國勞工統(tǒng)計局（U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics）的CPI通脹計算器，1986年Dollar Tree開張時，一美元的購買力相當(dāng)于現(xiàn)在的2.25美元。2020年也是本輪通脹恐慌之前，一美元的購買力相當(dāng)于2.38美元。
幾年前，Dollar Tree就曾經(jīng)嘗試漲價。2015年，公司在收購競爭對手連鎖店Family Dollar時就開始轉(zhuǎn)變，因為Family Dollar商品的價格超過了一美元。通過細(xì)致測試和推廣，公司發(fā)現(xiàn)客戶似乎并未太在意漲價。根據(jù)Dollar Tree的財報，今年測試時約90%購物者表示，盡管價格漲了25美分，但仍然愿意繼續(xù)甚至更頻繁地前往購物。
這家公司在上周明確表示，價格變化不是直接應(yīng)對當(dāng)前的通脹率，但維廷斯基確實指出，價格上漲可以提升公司“管理整體業(yè)務(wù)方面的靈活性，特別是在動蕩的通脹環(huán)境下。”但他補(bǔ)充說，通脹也推動更多的顧客進(jìn)店購物，提振了業(yè)務(wù)。
“本季度結(jié)束時公司業(yè)績強(qiáng)勁，因為在通脹環(huán)境下，購物者越來越重視劃算。”他說。
第三季度，Dollar Tree在美國開設(shè)了125家新店，平均每天新開超過一家，銷售額增長近4%，達(dá)到64.2億美元。
然而，Dollar Tree漲價并非通脹指標(biāo)，也不應(yīng)該被用作通脹指標(biāo)。如果硬要當(dāng)成指標(biāo)，該公司向來定價一美元則表明，從1986年開張到2021年通脹增長率為0%，實際上卻是通脹率累積上漲了252個百分點。
顯然Dollar Tree漲價指標(biāo)無法體現(xiàn)真實通脹水平。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
In a move that had many pundits running for the hills shouting about inflation, bargain retailer Dollar Tree announced this week that it would raise its baseline prices in all stores from $1 to $1.25.
While it’s true that inflation is currently at a 31 year-high, increasing 6.2% year-over-year in October, the current fearful narrative around Dollar Tree has been overblown and misleading. This will be the first price increase in the company’s three decade history, and a long time coming.
“This decision is permanent and is not a reaction to short-term or transitory market conditions” said Michael Witynski, Dollar Tree’s president and CEO in their third quarter earnings report. “[The] Company believes this is the appropriate time to shift away from the constraints of the $1.00 price point in order to continue offering extreme value to customers.”
When Dollar Tree began selling items in 1986, a dollar had the equivalent purchasing power of $2.25 today, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI inflation calculator. In 2020, prior to the current inflation scare, it had the purchasing power of $2.38.
Dollar Tree began testing an increase in prices years ago.The shift initially began in 2015 when the company acquired rival Family Dollar, a chain that had already priced items over the dollar mark. Through careful testing and rollouts, the company found that customers appeared unbothered by the increase. About 90% of shoppers surveyed this year by Dollar Tree in test rollouts indicated they would shop with the same or increased frequency despite the 25 cent price shift, according to the company’s earnings report.
Although the company explicitly said last week that their price change was not an immediate reaction to the current rate of inflation, Witynski did note that the increase would give the retailer “greater flexibility to manage the overall business, especially in a volatile, inflationary environment.” But he added that inflation has also driven more customers into the stores, helping business.
“We experienced a strong finish to the quarter, as shoppers are increasingly focused on value in this inflationary environment,” he said.
The company opened 125 new stores in the U.S. this quarter, at a rate of more than one a day, and saw sales rise by nearly 4% to $6.42 billion.
Dollar Tree’s pricing is not a proxy for inflation, nor should it be used as one. If it were, their consistent $1 pricing would indicate that inflation increased at a rate of 0% between their opening in 1986 and 2021, which is off by 252 points.
That’s not a great indicator.
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