恐慌才是“萬物短缺”惡性循環(huán)之源
Sophie Mellor
2021-10-29
兩年來，全球供應鏈陷入混亂，而港口擁堵是主要原因。國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）和世界貿(mào)易組織（World Trade Organization）在上周均表示，供應鏈混亂問題預計仍然將會持續(xù)數(shù)月。無論是企業(yè)收入下降，還是人們購買圣誕節(jié)禮物無望等等，這一切問題都要歸咎于供應鏈中斷。
但據(jù)一些分析師稱，“萬物短缺”問題的原因可能不在于供應鏈中斷本身，而是因為人們早就料到會發(fā)生這種情況。
標準普爾全球市場情報公司（S&P Global Market Intelligence）的供應鏈分析師埃里克·奧克指出，隨著“供應鏈危機”的言論愈演愈烈，企業(yè)為確保及時供貨，開始超額訂購原材料，下單時間也遠早于往常，進而加劇了供應鏈中斷問題。
奧克舉例說，如果某公司80%確信能夠獲得足夠的原材料來維持其工廠正常運轉(zhuǎn)，可能就不會訂購其所需的100%的原材料。但如果這家公司預計會收到80%的原材料，可能就會超額訂購120%的原材料，這樣至少可以確保收到96%的原材料。奧克在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示，“為確保工廠正常運轉(zhuǎn)，制造商很可能會增加原材料訂單量，”從而引發(fā)供應鏈中斷的周期性效應。
他說，提早超額訂購會引發(fā)牛鞭效應，因為一家公司增加了訂單量，或者下單時間遠早于往常，就會迫使其供應商也這樣做。供應商的供應商也會增加其訂單量，造成更多供應鏈中斷，從而引發(fā)涓滴效應。
奧克說，市場本來就已經(jīng)很緊張，消費者在看到有關(guān)供應鏈混亂的報道后出現(xiàn)恐慌性搶購，而其需求的小幅波動可能會導致某個月的訂單量急劇增加，這只會讓情況變得更糟，也就是所謂的“透明度問題。”
通貨膨脹也會產(chǎn)生類似效應。企業(yè)擔心今后原材料價格上漲，就會增加訂單量，從而推高價格。“如果人人都認為通貨膨脹會發(fā)生，它就很可能會發(fā)生。”奧克說。他說，通貨膨脹和供應鏈都具有相同的自我實現(xiàn)性。
到目前為止，供應鏈擁堵仍然無法得到緩解。據(jù)彭博社（Bloomberg）報道，兩年來，新冠肺炎疫情造成供需緊縮，全球77%的港口面臨著異常漫長的周轉(zhuǎn)期，停泊在美國港口和中國港口附近的許多船舶等待裝卸貨。
有人認為，準時制生產(chǎn)方式（一種保持最低工廠庫存以節(jié)省空間和降低成本的企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略）可能是問題的核心。不過奧克認為，在供應鏈危機中，如果要有贏家的話，就是那些能夠未雨綢繆的企業(yè)。“如果企業(yè)未能事先規(guī)劃，或者無法適應這種新的超長交付周期供應鏈環(huán)境，就可能會面臨供應鏈擁堵問題。”他說。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
翻譯：郝秀
審校：汪皓
兩年來，全球供應鏈陷入混亂，而港口擁堵是主要原因。國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）和世界貿(mào)易組織（World Trade Organization）在上周均表示，供應鏈混亂問題預計仍然將會持續(xù)數(shù)月。無論是企業(yè)收入下降，還是人們購買圣誕節(jié)禮物無望等等，這一切問題都要歸咎于供應鏈中斷。
但據(jù)一些分析師稱，“萬物短缺”問題的原因可能不在于供應鏈中斷本身，而是因為人們早就料到會發(fā)生這種情況。
標準普爾全球市場情報公司（S&P Global Market Intelligence）的供應鏈分析師埃里克·奧克指出，隨著“供應鏈危機”的言論愈演愈烈，企業(yè)為確保及時供貨，開始超額訂購原材料，下單時間也遠早于往常，進而加劇了供應鏈中斷問題。
奧克舉例說，如果某公司80%確信能夠獲得足夠的原材料來維持其工廠正常運轉(zhuǎn)，可能就不會訂購其所需的100%的原材料。但如果這家公司預計會收到80%的原材料，可能就會超額訂購120%的原材料，這樣至少可以確保收到96%的原材料。奧克在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示，“為確保工廠正常運轉(zhuǎn)，制造商很可能會增加原材料訂單量，”從而引發(fā)供應鏈中斷的周期性效應。
他說，提早超額訂購會引發(fā)牛鞭效應，因為一家公司增加了訂單量，或者下單時間遠早于往常，就會迫使其供應商也這樣做。供應商的供應商也會增加其訂單量，造成更多供應鏈中斷，從而引發(fā)涓滴效應。
奧克說，市場本來就已經(jīng)很緊張，消費者在看到有關(guān)供應鏈混亂的報道后出現(xiàn)恐慌性搶購，而其需求的小幅波動可能會導致某個月的訂單量急劇增加，這只會讓情況變得更糟，也就是所謂的“透明度問題。”
通貨膨脹也會產(chǎn)生類似效應。企業(yè)擔心今后原材料價格上漲，就會增加訂單量，從而推高價格。“如果人人都認為通貨膨脹會發(fā)生，它就很可能會發(fā)生。”奧克說。他說，通貨膨脹和供應鏈都具有相同的自我實現(xiàn)性。
到目前為止，供應鏈擁堵仍然無法得到緩解。據(jù)彭博社（Bloomberg）報道，兩年來，新冠肺炎疫情造成供需緊縮，全球77%的港口面臨著異常漫長的周轉(zhuǎn)期，停泊在美國港口和中國港口附近的許多船舶等待裝卸貨。
有人認為，準時制生產(chǎn)方式（一種保持最低工廠庫存以節(jié)省空間和降低成本的企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略）可能是問題的核心。不過奧克認為，在供應鏈危機中，如果要有贏家的話，就是那些能夠未雨綢繆的企業(yè)。“如果企業(yè)未能事先規(guī)劃，或者無法適應這種新的超長交付周期供應鏈環(huán)境，就可能會面臨供應鏈擁堵問題。”他說。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
翻譯：郝秀
審校：汪皓
After two years of mangled global supply chains, it is fair game to blame anything on port congestion. With the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization last week both noted they expect supply chain issues to drag on for several months, everything from poor company earnings to missing Christmas presents can be put down to supply chain disruptions.
But according to some analysts, the problem of the “everything shortage” may not be the supply chain disruptions themselves but everyone anticipating them.
As the rhetoric of a “supply chain crisis” ramps up, companies are over-ordering and placing orders earlier than usual to ensure goods keep flowing out the door, which causes further disruptions, notes Eric Oak, supply chain analyst for S&P Global Market Intelligence.
If a company is 80% sure it will get enough goods to keep its manufacturing facility open, it might not order 100% of what it needs, Oak says, as an example. But this company, which is expecting 80% of its goods to arrive, might instead over-order 120% of what they need, so at least 96% arrives. “The manufacturer is more likely to boost the raw material orders to make sure that their plant stays open,” creating a cyclical effect in supply chain disruptions, Oak tells Fortune.
Early over-ordering creates a bullwhip effect, he says, as one company increases its order volumes, or orders sooner than expected, making its suppliers do the same. Suppliers of suppliers will all increase their own volumes, creating a trickle-down effect of more disruption.
And in an already tight market, a small swing in consumer demand—which may come from panic-buying that arises after reading about mangled supply chains—may result in singular large order volumes one month, which just makes things worse, Oak says, calling it “a problem of transparency.”
Inflation has a similar role to play. As companies fear the prospect of prices rising in future, they also might be inclined to order more today, pushing prices still higher. “If everybody thinks inflation will happen, it’s likely to happen,” says Oak, who says both inflation and supply chains have the same self-fulfilling nature.
As of now supply chain congestion sees no end in sight. After two years of pandemic-related supply and demand constrictions, 77% of the world’s ports are experiencing abnormally long turnaround traffic, according to Bloomberg, with ships anchored off the coast of U.S. and Chinese ports waiting to be processed.
Some argue the focus on just-in-time manufacturing—a company strategy to maintain the bare minimum of stock in factories to save on space and costs—may be at the heart of the problem. And if there are any winners in the supply chain crisis, according to Oak, they will be the companies that thought ahead. “Companies that didn’t plan for, or adapt to this kind of new superlong lead time supply-chain environment might be left with goods on boats,” Oak says.
財富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識產(chǎn)權(quán)為財富媒體知識產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可，禁止進行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
