美國人平均每年消費大約144磅肉。但隨著牛肉、豬肉和雞肉等主要肉類的價格在過去一年中大幅上漲,這一數字或將發生變化。最新的消費者價格指數顯示,過去一年中,肉類、家禽、魚類和蛋類的價格上漲了10.5%——僅牛肉一項的漲幅就達到了17.6%。
為什么價格急劇上漲?因素有很多,但其中大多數都與供應鏈和勞動力市場的問題有關。有趣的是,在新冠疫情爆發初期爆發的供應短缺和高價格背后,正是這些問題在作祟,但是,根據堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行(Kansas City Fed)的首席農業經濟學家內森·考夫曼的說法,這些因素仍在對當前形勢構成壓力,盡管近幾天出現了扭轉跡象。
早前,肉類加工廠出現新冠病毒的擴散,減緩了供應鏈。企業們需要保持員工們的社交距離,有些工廠甚至不得不暫時關閉。考夫曼說,這曾經造成了嚴重的瓶頸,但在美國民眾現在所看到的商品價格持續上漲,與這一因素并沒有多大的關系。
考夫曼說,在目前的情況下,商品價格的上漲更多由經濟因素驅動——高需求和有限供應。“企業重新開門,人們重新開始流動,導致很多物品的需求都出現了大幅增加,至少目前來說是如此。”他對《財富》雜志表示,“但是,一些企業的定位決定了,他們只能提供小于等于目前需求量的商品或服務。”
考夫曼補充說,事實上,整個肉類供應鏈目前都面臨著許多限制。勞動力滲透到各個層面——農場,肉類加工廠,甚至是商店貨架。
需求的增加也影響了肉類儲備。根據美國農場局聯合會(American Farm Bureau Federation)的數據,盡管8月份冷凍牛肉和豬肉供應水平略有上升,但庫存水平仍遠低于2020年;與2017年至2019年的水平相比,庫存則大幅下降。“一般來說,庫存枯竭是造成瓶頸的原因。”考夫曼說,飼料成本其實也在上升,但這只影響了肉類總成本的“相對較小的一部分”。
供應鏈問題也在起作用。Freight Right Global Logistics首席執行官卡扎延表示,幾乎每個行業的每個方面,都存在著基礎設施問題。“船上的空間,港口和倉庫,卡車和司機的短缺……存在太多的漏洞了,無法一一列舉。”他對《財富》雜志表示。現在跨越太平洋的貨物運輸需要兩倍的時間,而且許多人一旦抵達港口就會遇到延誤,這些貨物被運往倉庫和零售商的時間甚至會更長。在肉類行業,從飼料到肉類產品進出倉庫和雜貨店的運輸,這些延誤影響了方方面面。
拜登政府還將價格上漲歸咎于肉類加工公司的高度集中。他們指出,只有四家大型企業集團控制著牛肉、豬肉和家禽的大部分市場。最近的一份報告還指出,在過去的一年里,許多大型生產商,如史密斯菲爾德食品公司(Smithfield Foods)、JBS公司、全國牛肉包裝公司(National Beef Packing Co.)、泰森食品公司(Tyson Foods)和嘉吉公司(Cargill),都解決了訴訟和監管調查,這些調查指控生產商合謀操縱肉價。
但是,這些案件中許多涉及的索賠可以追溯到若干年前,專家們對這是否是肉價上漲的主要因素持懷疑態度。"普渡大學(Purdue University)農業經濟學系主任杰森·勒斯克認為:“在過去5到10年里,基本結構和所有權模式沒有發生任何有意義的改變,所以很難看到有什么變化會突然使現在的合謀行為更有可能發生。”
考夫曼說,相對較少的企業的確提供了美國可供銷售的肉類的很大份額,但這仍然不是原牛價相對較低,牛肉價格卻相當高的主要原因。
由于美國部分地區出現干旱,很多生產商正在清算他們的畜群。“從經濟學的角度來看,這會使得價格更低,但是在(供應鏈)中間仍然存在制約和瓶頸,另一卻是需求強勁,這就是為什么你看到牛肉價格高,同時你也看到牛的價格低。”他說。
將會持續多久?
在正常環境下,當出現干旱或其他與天氣有關的事件時,對價格的連鎖反應通常持續一兩年。但現在并不完全是一個正常的環境。考夫曼說:“我們必須牢記其他一些限制因素。”他指出,勞動力短缺是一個大問題,供應鏈的中斷和延誤也是。
延誤并不會很快消失。卡扎延說,目前港口的擁堵(一些船只停靠延誤了四周)已經持續了18個月。“如果進口完全停止,可能需要6至10周時間才能完全清理完畢積壓的庫存。”他補充說。鑒于庫存處于創紀錄的低位,而且消費者需求很可能持續到明年年中,延誤可能會一直持續到2023年。
考夫曼認為,由于肉類價格至少在一定程度上與經濟中正在發生的更廣泛的情況有關,可能要到明年某個時候,我們才會開始看到價格稍微穩定。(財富中文網)
編譯:楊二一
美國人平均每年消費大約144磅肉。但隨著牛肉、豬肉和雞肉等主要肉類的價格在過去一年中大幅上漲,這一數字或將發生變化。最新的消費者價格指數顯示,過去一年中,肉類、家禽、魚類和蛋類的價格上漲了10.5%——僅牛肉一項的漲幅就達到了17.6%。
為什么價格急劇上漲?因素有很多,但其中大多數都與供應鏈和勞動力市場的問題有關。有趣的是,在新冠疫情爆發初期爆發的供應短缺和高價格背后,正是這些問題在作祟,但是,根據堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行(Kansas City Fed)的首席農業經濟學家內森·考夫曼的說法,這些因素仍在對當前形勢構成壓力,盡管近幾天出現了扭轉跡象。
早前,肉類加工廠出現新冠病毒的擴散,減緩了供應鏈。企業們需要保持員工們的社交距離,有些工廠甚至不得不暫時關閉。考夫曼說,這曾經造成了嚴重的瓶頸,但在美國民眾現在所看到的商品價格持續上漲,與這一因素并沒有多大的關系。
考夫曼說,在目前的情況下,商品價格的上漲更多由經濟因素驅動——高需求和有限供應。“企業重新開門,人們重新開始流動,導致很多物品的需求都出現了大幅增加,至少目前來說是如此。”他對《財富》雜志表示,“但是,一些企業的定位決定了,他們只能提供小于等于目前需求量的商品或服務。”
考夫曼補充說,事實上,整個肉類供應鏈目前都面臨著許多限制。勞動力滲透到各個層面——農場,肉類加工廠,甚至是商店貨架。
需求的增加也影響了肉類儲備。根據美國農場局聯合會(American Farm Bureau Federation)的數據,盡管8月份冷凍牛肉和豬肉供應水平略有上升,但庫存水平仍遠低于2020年;與2017年至2019年的水平相比,庫存則大幅下降。“一般來說,庫存枯竭是造成瓶頸的原因。”考夫曼說,飼料成本其實也在上升,但這只影響了肉類總成本的“相對較小的一部分”。
供應鏈問題也在起作用。Freight Right Global Logistics首席執行官卡扎延表示,幾乎每個行業的每個方面,都存在著基礎設施問題。“船上的空間,港口和倉庫,卡車和司機的短缺……存在太多的漏洞了,無法一一列舉。”他對《財富》雜志表示。現在跨越太平洋的貨物運輸需要兩倍的時間,而且許多人一旦抵達港口就會遇到延誤,這些貨物被運往倉庫和零售商的時間甚至會更長。在肉類行業,從飼料到肉類產品進出倉庫和雜貨店的運輸,這些延誤影響了方方面面。
拜登政府還將價格上漲歸咎于肉類加工公司的高度集中。他們指出,只有四家大型企業集團控制著牛肉、豬肉和家禽的大部分市場。最近的一份報告還指出,在過去的一年里,許多大型生產商,如史密斯菲爾德食品公司(Smithfield Foods)、JBS公司、全國牛肉包裝公司(National Beef Packing Co.)、泰森食品公司(Tyson Foods)和嘉吉公司(Cargill),都解決了訴訟和監管調查,這些調查指控生產商合謀操縱肉價。
但是,這些案件中許多涉及的索賠可以追溯到若干年前,專家們對這是否是肉價上漲的主要因素持懷疑態度。"普渡大學(Purdue University)農業經濟學系主任杰森·勒斯克認為:“在過去5到10年里,基本結構和所有權模式沒有發生任何有意義的改變,所以很難看到有什么變化會突然使現在的合謀行為更有可能發生。”
考夫曼說,相對較少的企業的確提供了美國可供銷售的肉類的很大份額,但這仍然不是原牛價相對較低,牛肉價格卻相當高的主要原因。
由于美國部分地區出現干旱,很多生產商正在清算他們的畜群。“從經濟學的角度來看,這會使得價格更低,但是在(供應鏈)中間仍然存在制約和瓶頸,另一卻是需求強勁,這就是為什么你看到牛肉價格高,同時你也看到牛的價格低。”他說。
將會持續多久?
在正常環境下,當出現干旱或其他與天氣有關的事件時,對價格的連鎖反應通常持續一兩年。但現在并不完全是一個正常的環境。考夫曼說:“我們必須牢記其他一些限制因素。”他指出,勞動力短缺是一個大問題,供應鏈的中斷和延誤也是。
延誤并不會很快消失。卡扎延說,目前港口的擁堵(一些船只停靠延誤了四周)已經持續了18個月。“如果進口完全停止,可能需要6至10周時間才能完全清理完畢積壓的庫存。”他補充說。鑒于庫存處于創紀錄的低位,而且消費者需求很可能持續到明年年中,延誤可能會一直持續到2023年。
考夫曼認為,由于肉類價格至少在一定程度上與經濟中正在發生的更廣泛的情況有關,可能要到明年某個時候,我們才會開始看到價格稍微穩定。(財富中文網)
編譯:楊二一
The average American consumes around 144 pounds of meat each year, but that may shift as staples like beef, pork, and chicken have become a lot more expensive over the past year. The latest consumer price index shows the cost of meats, poultry, fish, and eggs has risen 10.5% in the past year—17.6% for beef alone.
But why are prices increasing sharply now? A number of factors are contributing to the inflated prices, but most revolve around supply-chain issues and labor challenges. Interestingly, these issues were behind the shortages and high prices consumers saw early in the COVID-19 outbreak, but Kansas City Fed’s principal agriculture economist Nathan Kauffman says those factors are still weighing on the situation, albeit with a slight twist these days.
Early on, the prevalence of COVID-19 cases in meatpacking plants slowed the supply chain, since companies needed to make social distancing adjustments—and some even had to close down temporarily. This created significant bottlenecks, Kauffman says, but those factors are not so much at play in the continued price increases Americans are seeing at grocery store shelves now.
Instead, Kauffman says it’s more driven by economic factors at this point—high demand and limited supply. “The reopening of businesses and people moving about a little bit more has caused a pretty significant increase in demand for lots of things, at least for the time being,” he tells Fortune. “Some businesses, though, are only positioned to be able to deliver so much of the goods or services that are ultimately being demanded right now.”
In fact, there are a number of constraints that the entire meat supply chain faces right now, he added. Labor is one that permeates every level—at the farms, at the meatpacking plants, and even in getting the products to the store shelves.
The increased demand is also affecting meat reserves. Although the level of frozen beef and pork supplies was up slightly in August, stock remains much lower than in 2020 and considerably depressed compared to levels seen from 2017 to 2019, according to American Farm Bureau Federation. “Generally speaking, depleted inventories have been something that has been driving bottlenecks,” Kauffman says. The cost of feed is also up, but that's contributing only to a "relatively small amount" of the overall cost increases in meat, Kauffman says.
Supply-chain issues are also at play. There are infrastructure issues in every aspect of nearly every industry, says Robert Khachatryan, CEO of Freight Right Global Logistics. “From space on ships, in ports, and in warehouses to truck and driver shortages, there are too many vulnerabilities to list,” he tells Fortune. It’s now taking twice as long to transport goods across the Pacific—and then many are dealing with delays once they get to port and even more when faced with transporting those goods to warehouses and retailers. In the meat industry, those delays have affected everything from feed to transporting meat products to and from both warehouses and grocery stores.
The Biden administration also has blamed the high concentration of meat processing companies for higher prices, noting that just four large conglomerates control the majority of the market for beef, pork, and poultry. A recent report also noted that over the past year, many of the big producers—Smithfield Foods, JBS, National Beef Packing Co., Tyson Foods, and Cargill—have settled lawsuits and regulatory investigations alleging producers colluded to fix meat prices.
However, many of those cases involved claims going back a number of years. And experts are skeptical that this is a major factor in rising meat prices. “The basic structure and ownership patterns haven’t changed in any meaningful way in the past five to 10 years, so it is hard to see what changed that would suddenly make collusion more likely now,” says Jayson Lusk, head of the department of agricultural economics at Purdue University.
There are a relatively small number of businesses that do provide a large share of the meat that's available for sale in the United States, Kauffman says, but that’s not the primary reason we're seeing relatively low cattle prices and quite high beef prices.
Because of drought in parts of the U.S., lots of producers are liquidating their herds. “The economics of that suggests that the prices will be lower, but there's still constraints and bottlenecks in the middle [of the supply chain] with strong demand on the other side, which is why you're seeing high beef prices while you're also seeing low cattle prices,” he says.
How long will this last?
In a normal environment when there’s a drought or another weather-related event, the ripple effects on price usually last a year or two. But this is not exactly a normal environment. “We do have to keep in mind some of the other constraints,” Kauffman says, noting that the labor shortages are a big one, along with supply-chain disruptions and delays.
And those delays aren’t going away anytime soon. Khachatryan says the current port congestion—some ships are seeing a four-week delay to dock—has been building up for about 18 months. “If imports were to stop completely it would probably take six to 10 weeks to completely clean up the backlog,” he adds. Given the record low inventories and the fact that consumer demand is likely to remain strong through the middle of next year, the delays could last well into 2023.
And since meat prices are, at least in part, tied to what’s occurring more broadly happening in the economy, it might be some time next year maybe we'll start to see a bit more stabilization, Kauffman says.