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美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)遇冷,劇變正在降臨

LANCE LAMBERT
2021-08-10

購(gòu)房者終于沒(méi)那么痛快地花大價(jià)錢(qián)買房了。

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如果要描述2021年房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的節(jié)奏,一個(gè)詞:極速狂飆。今年房市的競(jìng)購(gòu)戰(zhàn)十分激烈,房?jī)r(jià)漲幅創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

但這種浪潮正在發(fā)生變化。

疫情期間,大批購(gòu)房者涌入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),清空了房屋庫(kù)存,市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存連續(xù)下降12個(gè)月。截至4月,房屋庫(kù)存較上年同期已驚人地下降了53%。然而,最近趨勢(shì)曲線已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了變化:待售房屋數(shù)量已連續(xù)上漲兩個(gè)月。5月,realtor.com上掛出的房屋數(shù)量增加了3%,6月又上漲了9%。這還不是全部:上周數(shù)據(jù)顯示,新房銷售正在下滑,6月的銷售速度是疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)最慢的。種種跡象都表明,市場(chǎng)正稍稍向有利于買家的方向轉(zhuǎn)變。

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)為何突然遇冷?因?yàn)橘?gòu)房者終于沒(méi)那么痛快地花大價(jià)錢(qián)買房了。

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)研究公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿里?沃爾夫向《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“過(guò)去一年,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)過(guò)熱,房?jī)r(jià)天花板看不到頭,部分買家對(duì)此已經(jīng)難以接受。”Zonda上個(gè)月對(duì)房地產(chǎn)建筑商的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),61%的建筑商感受到了買家更大的阻力。

買家的猶豫是意料之中的。畢竟,房?jī)r(jià)不可能一直以17%的年增長(zhǎng)率上漲。說(shuō)到底,房?jī)r(jià)還是要受到家庭預(yù)算的限制。

市場(chǎng)可能還會(huì)繼續(xù)降溫。正如《財(cái)富》雜志上周報(bào)道,隨著最后一批刺激措施開(kāi)始失效,房市節(jié)奏可能放緩。聯(lián)邦政府房屋止贖禁令于7月31日到期。接下來(lái)是房貸延期支付計(jì)劃,這項(xiàng)允許部分借款人暫停還款的政策將于9月30日失效。目前,仍有175萬(wàn)借款人受貸款延期計(jì)劃保護(hù),占美國(guó)房貸人數(shù)的3.5%。房主如仍處于經(jīng)濟(jì)緊張狀態(tài)無(wú)法繼續(xù)還貸,可以選擇賣掉房產(chǎn)。當(dāng)然,如果這種情況發(fā)生,房地產(chǎn)庫(kù)存將進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)。

但降溫并不一定意味著房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)下跌。事實(shí)上,研究公司CoreLogic預(yù)測(cè),到2022年6月,房?jī)r(jià)將再上漲3.2%。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn):這個(gè)市場(chǎng)仍然是賣方市場(chǎng)。

“需要注意的是,許多房屋的銷售速度仍然非常快,一上市就賣掉了。”沃爾夫說(shuō),“現(xiàn)在的變化是,經(jīng)歷競(jìng)價(jià)戰(zhàn)或售價(jià)高于要價(jià)的房屋數(shù)量出現(xiàn)了非常輕微的下降……一些房屋現(xiàn)在的售價(jià)低于要價(jià)。”

CoreLogic等研究公司之所以認(rèn)為房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲,歸根結(jié)底在于人口結(jié)構(gòu)。出生于1989年至1993年的這批人(千禧一代中人數(shù)最多的年齡段)正步入30歲,對(duì)于他們而言,首套房的選購(gòu)真正提上了日程,我們正處在這樣一個(gè)五年周期的中間。而房地產(chǎn)建筑商卻沒(méi)有為此做好準(zhǔn)備:2010年代,房產(chǎn)商仍在2008年房地產(chǎn)泡沫和隨后的止贖危機(jī)帶來(lái)的金融創(chuàng)傷中掙扎,整個(gè)行業(yè)都陷入低迷。除此之外,疫情引起的衰退導(dǎo)致抵押貸款利率降低,加上居家辦公的職場(chǎng)人更愿意去追求買得起的房產(chǎn),疫情給房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)的多重利好仍在持續(xù)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

如果要描述2021年房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的節(jié)奏,一個(gè)詞:極速狂飆。今年房市的競(jìng)購(gòu)戰(zhàn)十分激烈,房?jī)r(jià)漲幅創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

但這種浪潮正在發(fā)生變化。

疫情期間,大批購(gòu)房者涌入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),清空了房屋庫(kù)存,市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存連續(xù)下降12個(gè)月。截至4月,房屋庫(kù)存較上年同期已驚人地下降了53%。然而,最近趨勢(shì)曲線已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了變化:待售房屋數(shù)量已連續(xù)上漲兩個(gè)月。5月,realtor.com上掛出的房屋數(shù)量增加了3%,6月又上漲了9%。這還不是全部:上周數(shù)據(jù)顯示,新房銷售正在下滑,6月的銷售速度是疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)最慢的。種種跡象都表明,市場(chǎng)正稍稍向有利于買家的方向轉(zhuǎn)變。

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)為何突然遇冷?因?yàn)橘?gòu)房者終于沒(méi)那么痛快地花大價(jià)錢(qián)買房了。

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)研究公司Zonda的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿里?沃爾夫向《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“過(guò)去一年,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)過(guò)熱,房?jī)r(jià)天花板看不到頭,部分買家對(duì)此已經(jīng)難以接受。”Zonda上個(gè)月對(duì)房地產(chǎn)建筑商的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),61%的建筑商感受到了買家更大的阻力。

買家的猶豫是意料之中的。畢竟,房?jī)r(jià)不可能一直以17%的年增長(zhǎng)率上漲。說(shuō)到底,房?jī)r(jià)還是要受到家庭預(yù)算的限制。

市場(chǎng)可能還會(huì)繼續(xù)降溫。正如《財(cái)富》雜志上周報(bào)道,隨著最后一批刺激措施開(kāi)始失效,房市節(jié)奏可能放緩。聯(lián)邦政府房屋止贖禁令于7月31日到期。接下來(lái)是房貸延期支付計(jì)劃,這項(xiàng)允許部分借款人暫停還款的政策將于9月30日失效。目前,仍有175萬(wàn)借款人受貸款延期計(jì)劃保護(hù),占美國(guó)房貸人數(shù)的3.5%。房主如仍處于經(jīng)濟(jì)緊張狀態(tài)無(wú)法繼續(xù)還貸,可以選擇賣掉房產(chǎn)。當(dāng)然,如果這種情況發(fā)生,房地產(chǎn)庫(kù)存將進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)。

但降溫并不一定意味著房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)下跌。事實(shí)上,研究公司CoreLogic預(yù)測(cè),到2022年6月,房?jī)r(jià)將再上漲3.2%。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn):這個(gè)市場(chǎng)仍然是賣方市場(chǎng)。

“需要注意的是,許多房屋的銷售速度仍然非常快,一上市就賣掉了。”沃爾夫說(shuō),“現(xiàn)在的變化是,經(jīng)歷競(jìng)價(jià)戰(zhàn)或售價(jià)高于要價(jià)的房屋數(shù)量出現(xiàn)了非常輕微的下降……一些房屋現(xiàn)在的售價(jià)低于要價(jià)。”

CoreLogic等研究公司之所以認(rèn)為房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)繼續(xù)上漲,歸根結(jié)底在于人口結(jié)構(gòu)。出生于1989年至1993年的這批人(千禧一代中人數(shù)最多的年齡段)正步入30歲,對(duì)于他們而言,首套房的選購(gòu)真正提上了日程,我們正處在這樣一個(gè)五年周期的中間。而房地產(chǎn)建筑商卻沒(méi)有為此做好準(zhǔn)備:2010年代,房產(chǎn)商仍在2008年房地產(chǎn)泡沫和隨后的止贖危機(jī)帶來(lái)的金融創(chuàng)傷中掙扎,整個(gè)行業(yè)都陷入低迷。除此之外,疫情引起的衰退導(dǎo)致抵押貸款利率降低,加上居家辦公的職場(chǎng)人更愿意去追求買得起的房產(chǎn),疫情給房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)的多重利好仍在持續(xù)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

Breakneck. That's the best way to describe the pace of the 2021 housing market. The bidding wars got so intense this year that home price growth set an all-time record.

But the tide is turning.

The rush of buyers into the housing market during the pandemic absolutely crushed housing inventory—the number of homes on the market—with that figure falling for 12 consecutive months. By April, housing inventory was down a staggering 53% from a year earlier. However, the trajectory has flipped: For two straight months the number of homes for sale has gone up. Homes listing on realtor.com rose 3% in May, then again by 9% in June. That's not all: We learned last week that new home sales are falling—their pace in June was the slowest since the onset of the pandemic. Every indication is that the market is shifting a bit in buyers’ favor.

Why the sudden cooling? Home shoppers are finally showing some reluctance to pay top dollar.

"The housing market was too hot for its own good over the past year, and we’ve seen some buyers bump up against an invisible price ceiling," Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a housing market research firm, tells Fortune. A Zonda survey of homebuilders last month finds that 61% of builders are seeing more resistance from homebuyers.

This buyer hesitation was expected. After all, home prices can't continue to grow at a 17% year-over-year rate indefinitely. At the end of the day, household budgets can stretch only so far.

And more cooling could be on the way. As Fortune reported last week, the pace of real estate sales might slow as the last of the stimulus protections begin to lapse. The foreclosure moratorium, which prevented foreclosures on federally backed mortgages, came to an end on July 31. Next up will be the mortgage forbearance program, which allows some borrowers to pause their payments; it lapses on Sept. 30. That forbearance program still protects 1.75 million borrowers, or 3.5% of U.S. mortgages. Homeowners still hurting financially could opt to sell their home rather than restart their mortgage payments. Of course, if that happens, housing inventory would rise further.

But cooling doesn't mean home prices will fall. In fact, the research firm CoreLogic forecasts home prices will climb another 3.2% by June 2022. Make no mistake: This is still a seller's market.

"It’s important to note that many homes are still selling almost as quickly as they hit the market," Wolf says. "The difference today is that there’s been ever so slight softening in the number of homes undergoing a bidding war or selling above the ask price…some homes are now selling below ask price."

The reason that research firms like CoreLogic think prices can go higher boils down to demographics. We're in the middle of the five-year period when the largest tranche of millennials, those born between 1989 and 1993, are hitting their thirties—the age when first-time homebuying really kicks into gear. That's something homebuilders haven't been preparing for: During the 2010s, homebuilding tanked as builders struggled with the financial scars of the 2008 housing bubble and subsequent foreclosure crisis. Not to mention, the housing market is still benefiting from the perfect storm created by the pandemic: recession-induced low mortgage rates, coupled with remote workers who are willing to uproot in pursuit of affordable real estate.

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