如果美國人最近查看過自己的信用評分,會對結果十分驚訝,且不是一個人。雖然信用評分經常因為消費記錄、債務水平等因素出現波動,但新冠肺炎疫情產生的經濟影響,加上近期消費支出的上漲,放大了許多人的信用評分波動。
隨著經濟逐漸復蘇,消費者在餐飲、旅游以及婚禮等重大活動上的支出大幅增加。這和疫情期間的情況形成了鮮明對比,當時的消費主要向網上購物、家居裝修項目和流媒體服務轉移。
SoFi財務規劃高級經理布萊恩?沃爾什表示,盡管消費模式出現變化在意料之中,但消費者仍應保持謹慎。他強調,要先減少居家隔離時期的各類支出,再增加重新開放后新增的消費項目,確保防止超支,避免信用卡債務高筑。
滑坡謬誤
T. Rowe Price近期報告顯示,由于疫情引發的財務壓力,背負信用卡債務的家庭比例有所上升,從2020年的43%上升到2021年的57%。這或許也是一些家庭信用評分下降的原因。
報告還發現,盡管疫情加劇了種族貧富差距,但不同種族之間信用卡債務的增加并沒有顯著差異:30%的黑人家庭、38%的西班牙裔家庭、31%的亞裔家庭和35%白人家庭的信用卡債務都有所增加。
沃爾什指出,部分人因為消費支出增加,信用利用率(信用額度被使用的比率)也在上升。根據經驗,你的信用額度利用率過高時,信用分數也會下降。
沃爾什說:“信用利用率,或者說你的信用余額除以信用額度的比值,是影響你信用評分的一個主要因素,而且變化很快。”每月的信用利用率即使出現了很小幅度的上漲,也會導致信用分數下跌。與此同時,超支和逾期付款,再加上高昂的利息費用,如果不保持警惕,可能很快就會因此陷入麻煩。
“隨著國家重新開放,我們看到許多會員的行為習慣發生了改變,開始提前計劃旅行和其他活動。”沃爾什說,“這些活動大多情況下都需要提前付款,雖然他們實際要等到今年更晚的時候才會出行。在被關了一年多之后,想要外出旅行是天經地義的事,但在做預算時要深思熟慮,要把這些開支列為預算的優先項。”
但并不是說當前的消費趨勢一定會持續。由于新冠病毒變異毒株的持續傳播,如確診病例突然激增或持續增多,或將促使人們恢復嚴格的社交距離,導致消費行為和支出習慣再次發生大規模轉變。
莫尼塔(Moneta)的注冊理財規劃師、高級顧問詹姆斯?查默斯也強調,要保持頭腦清醒,清楚知道欠下的債務。他說,“數字一代”必須警惕一個新趨勢——“先買后付”(BNPL)類的消費服務唾手可得,消費者幾乎可以采用分期付款的方式買下網上的每一樣商品。AfterPay就是其中之一, Square本周早些時候宣布計劃以290億美元收購該公司。
“對于一個有條理、知道自己在做什么的人來說,能從這種服務中受益。”查默斯在談到BNPL服務時說,“但我看到很多人有大量貸款和信用卡債務,又缺乏條理,因此陷入了麻煩。”
查爾默斯強調,這類消費支出很容易積少成多,他還指出,因為在當前文化中,對即使滿足感的渴望盛行,更加劇了混亂,形成了一種消極的反饋循環。
“這真的要說回行為金融學。人們受情緒推動做出花錢的決定,而且如果說,‘我只需要多花20美元就能買下這個100美元的東西’,做出決定更加輕而易舉。”查默斯說,“通過應用程序下單、一鍵購買、把所有支付渠道都和信用卡或銀行賬戶綁定,種種看不見摸不著的消費方式都讓花錢更容易。”
信用卡經常用于過度消費。然而,對于那些計劃及時還款的人來說,較高的信用利用率或分期還款不見得是個大問題。沃爾什說,關鍵是要在消費和可用現金流之間取得平衡,才能避免出現財務問題。
其他影響因素
支出和債務增加不是造成信用評分波動的唯一原因。The Points Guy的首席執行官和創始人布萊恩?凱利指出,現在越來越多的人稱他們的信用報告中出現了錯誤,“本就已經很棘手的情況因此雪上加霜,因為這些錯誤會對信用評分產生影響。”
事實上,消費者金融保護局(Consumer Financial Protection Bureau)的在線投訴數據庫顯示,2020年的信用報告投訴數量比2019年增加了一倍多,而且每個月都在刷新記錄。
其中一些錯誤可以直接歸咎于疫情及相關的聯邦救濟計劃。該計劃延長了一些貸款的償還期限,但投訴稱,延期沒有準確反映在借款人的信用報告中,導致貸款看上去已經逾期,造成信用分下降。
其他常見錯誤包括“信息屬于他人”,這類投訴中,超過五分之一的投訴內容包括“身份盜竊”。
凱利說:“數據顯示,這個問題早在疫情之前就已存在,但在去年更嚴重了。”
報告錯誤增加的部分原因可能還在于,通常情況下,信用報告機構要求在30至45天內處理投訴,但政府在疫情早期放寬了時限,相關機構的回應速度因此更加靈活。
目前,因為重新開放引發的需求激增已經造成了一段時間的通貨膨脹(不過根據美聯儲的說法,這是暫時的)。因為通貨膨脹通常意味著更高的價格,也就意味著信貸需求的增加。這種時候,提高對過度消費的警惕性尤為重要。
凱利補充說,今后,隨著人們繼續在度假、婚禮和住房等大筆開支上花更多錢,信用評分預計將出現更多波動,但他也說,信用評分不完美并不意味著世界末日。
凱利說:“你可以用自己不怎么好看的信用評分,從貸款人和信用卡發行商那里獲得最好的折扣。”(財富中文網)
譯者:Agatha
如果美國人最近查看過自己的信用評分,會對結果十分驚訝,且不是一個人。雖然信用評分經常因為消費記錄、債務水平等因素出現波動,但新冠肺炎疫情產生的經濟影響,加上近期消費支出的上漲,放大了許多人的信用評分波動。
隨著經濟逐漸復蘇,消費者在餐飲、旅游以及婚禮等重大活動上的支出大幅增加。這和疫情期間的情況形成了鮮明對比,當時的消費主要向網上購物、家居裝修項目和流媒體服務轉移。
SoFi財務規劃高級經理布萊恩?沃爾什表示,盡管消費模式出現變化在意料之中,但消費者仍應保持謹慎。他強調,要先減少居家隔離時期的各類支出,再增加重新開放后新增的消費項目,確保防止超支,避免信用卡債務高筑。
滑坡謬誤
T. Rowe Price近期報告顯示,由于疫情引發的財務壓力,背負信用卡債務的家庭比例有所上升,從2020年的43%上升到2021年的57%。這或許也是一些家庭信用評分下降的原因。
報告還發現,盡管疫情加劇了種族貧富差距,但不同種族之間信用卡債務的增加并沒有顯著差異:30%的黑人家庭、38%的西班牙裔家庭、31%的亞裔家庭和35%白人家庭的信用卡債務都有所增加。
沃爾什指出,部分人因為消費支出增加,信用利用率(信用額度被使用的比率)也在上升。根據經驗,你的信用額度利用率過高時,信用分數也會下降。
沃爾什說:“信用利用率,或者說你的信用余額除以信用額度的比值,是影響你信用評分的一個主要因素,而且變化很快。”每月的信用利用率即使出現了很小幅度的上漲,也會導致信用分數下跌。與此同時,超支和逾期付款,再加上高昂的利息費用,如果不保持警惕,可能很快就會因此陷入麻煩。
“隨著國家重新開放,我們看到許多會員的行為習慣發生了改變,開始提前計劃旅行和其他活動。”沃爾什說,“這些活動大多情況下都需要提前付款,雖然他們實際要等到今年更晚的時候才會出行。在被關了一年多之后,想要外出旅行是天經地義的事,但在做預算時要深思熟慮,要把這些開支列為預算的優先項。”
但并不是說當前的消費趨勢一定會持續。由于新冠病毒變異毒株的持續傳播,如確診病例突然激增或持續增多,或將促使人們恢復嚴格的社交距離,導致消費行為和支出習慣再次發生大規模轉變。
莫尼塔(Moneta)的注冊理財規劃師、高級顧問詹姆斯?查默斯也強調,要保持頭腦清醒,清楚知道欠下的債務。他說,“數字一代”必須警惕一個新趨勢——“先買后付”(BNPL)類的消費服務唾手可得,消費者幾乎可以采用分期付款的方式買下網上的每一樣商品。AfterPay就是其中之一, Square本周早些時候宣布計劃以290億美元收購該公司。
“對于一個有條理、知道自己在做什么的人來說,能從這種服務中受益。”查默斯在談到BNPL服務時說,“但我看到很多人有大量貸款和信用卡債務,又缺乏條理,因此陷入了麻煩。”
查爾默斯強調,這類消費支出很容易積少成多,他還指出,因為在當前文化中,對即使滿足感的渴望盛行,更加劇了混亂,形成了一種消極的反饋循環。
“這真的要說回行為金融學。人們受情緒推動做出花錢的決定,而且如果說,‘我只需要多花20美元就能買下這個100美元的東西’,做出決定更加輕而易舉。”查默斯說,“通過應用程序下單、一鍵購買、把所有支付渠道都和信用卡或銀行賬戶綁定,種種看不見摸不著的消費方式都讓花錢更容易。”
信用卡經常用于過度消費。然而,對于那些計劃及時還款的人來說,較高的信用利用率或分期還款不見得是個大問題。沃爾什說,關鍵是要在消費和可用現金流之間取得平衡,才能避免出現財務問題。
其他影響因素
支出和債務增加不是造成信用評分波動的唯一原因。The Points Guy的首席執行官和創始人布萊恩?凱利指出,現在越來越多的人稱他們的信用報告中出現了錯誤,“本就已經很棘手的情況因此雪上加霜,因為這些錯誤會對信用評分產生影響。”
事實上,消費者金融保護局(Consumer Financial Protection Bureau)的在線投訴數據庫顯示,2020年的信用報告投訴數量比2019年增加了一倍多,而且每個月都在刷新記錄。
其中一些錯誤可以直接歸咎于疫情及相關的聯邦救濟計劃。該計劃延長了一些貸款的償還期限,但投訴稱,延期沒有準確反映在借款人的信用報告中,導致貸款看上去已經逾期,造成信用分下降。
其他常見錯誤包括“信息屬于他人”,這類投訴中,超過五分之一的投訴內容包括“身份盜竊”。
凱利說:“數據顯示,這個問題早在疫情之前就已存在,但在去年更嚴重了。”
報告錯誤增加的部分原因可能還在于,通常情況下,信用報告機構要求在30至45天內處理投訴,但政府在疫情早期放寬了時限,相關機構的回應速度因此更加靈活。
目前,因為重新開放引發的需求激增已經造成了一段時間的通貨膨脹(不過根據美聯儲的說法,這是暫時的)。因為通貨膨脹通常意味著更高的價格,也就意味著信貸需求的增加。這種時候,提高對過度消費的警惕性尤為重要。
凱利補充說,今后,隨著人們繼續在度假、婚禮和住房等大筆開支上花更多錢,信用評分預計將出現更多波動,但他也說,信用評分不完美并不意味著世界末日。
凱利說:“你可以用自己不怎么好看的信用評分,從貸款人和信用卡發行商那里獲得最好的折扣。”(財富中文網)
譯者:Agatha
If you’ve checked your credit score recently and were surprised by what you saw, know that you aren’t alone. Although credit score fluctuations normally occur as a result of factors such as payment history and debt level, the economic ramifications of COVID-19, combined with recent increases in consumer spending, have amplified these fluctuations for many.
As the economy has bounced back, consumers are spending significantly more on dining, travel, and major events like weddings. That's in contrast to the shift in spending during the pandemic, largely toward online shopping, home improvement projects, and streaming services.
Brian Walsh, senior manager of financial planning at SoFi, says that although changing spending patterns are to be expected, consumers should remain cautious. He underscores the importance of reducing quarantine expenses before adding reopening expenses to prevent overspending and potentially racking up credit card debt.
A slippery slope
According to a recent report by T. Rowe Price, the percentage of families carrying credit card debt has increased due to pandemic-induced financial strain. Families reporting credit card debt have risen from 43% in 2020 to 57% in 2021, which may explain why credit scores have fallen for some.
The report also found that although the pandemic exacerbated the racial wealth gap, increases in credit card debt do not vary meaningfully between racial groups: 30% of Black, 38% of Hispanic, 31% of Asian, and 35% of white families reported increased credit card debt.
Walsh points out that credit utilization, or how much of a consumer's available credit they are using, is increasing for some as they spend more. The rule of thumb is that when your credit utilization is too high, your score goes down.
“Credit utilization, or your balances divided by your limits, is a major factor in your credit score and can change quickly," Walsh says. Even small percentage increases in monthly utilization can lead to a decline in score. Meanwhile, overspending and late payments, combined with costly interest fees, can catch up quickly with those who are less vigilant.
“As the country reopened, we saw many members change their current behavior and plan ahead for trips and events," Walsh says. "Many times, this meant paying up front, even though they were not traveling until later in the year. It is natural to travel and go out after being cooped up inside for more than a year, but it’s important to do so with a thoughtful budget that helps prioritize these expenses.”
All of this isn't to say that current spending trends are sure to last. Given the continued spread of variant strains of the coronavirus, another surge or further increase in breakthrough cases could prompt a return to strict social distancing and cause consumer behavior and spending to pivot on a large scale once again.
James Chalmers, certified financial planner and senior advisor at Moneta, also emphasizes the importance of staying organized and aware of what you owe. He points to a new trend that he says the “digital generation” must watch out for, which is the accessibility of buy now, pay later (BNPL) tools that allow consumers to pay off almost any online product in monthly increments. One example is AfterPay, which Square earlier this week announced plans to acquire for $29 billion.
“That can be great for a person who’s organized and knows what they’re doing," Chalmers says of BNPL services, "but where I’m seeing folks get into trouble is when they have lots of loans and credit cards and also are disorganized."
Chalmers highlights how easily these expenses can add up and notes that the desire for immediate gratification that’s become prevalent in our culture exacerbates disorganization, acting as a negative feedback loop of sorts.
“It’s really back to behavioral finance. People make money decisions out of emotion, and it’s so much easier to say, ‘I’m going to bite this $100 purchase off in $20 increments,’” Chalmers says. “The ease that we’ve made things in the form of apps and one-clicks and everything being tied to a credit card or your bank account, that out-of-sight, out-of-mind makes it a lot easier to spend.”
Credit cards are often used for excess spending. However, for those who plan to pay off their credit cards in a timely manner, having a higher credit utilization or splitting up payments over time isn’t necessarily a huge concern. Walsh says that the key is to balance your activities with your available cash flow, so as not to put yourself in a vulnerable financial position.
Other factors at play
Credit scores aren’t fluctuating only as a result of increased spending and debt. Brian Kelly, CEO and founder of The Points Guy, notes that right now, more people than ever are reporting errors on their credit reports, “which makes an already difficult situation even more so, because these errors are affecting credit scores.”
In fact, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's online complaint database, the number of credit reporting complaints more than doubled in 2020 compared to 2019, setting new records for each month of the year.
Some errors can be directly attributed to the pandemic and its associated federal relief program. This program granted an extension for the repayment of some loans, which, according to complaints, was not accurately reflected on borrowers' credit reports, making the loans appear past due and bringing scores down as a result.
Other common errors were tagged as "information belongs to someone else,” and among issues with this tag, more than one in five included the phrase “identity theft.”
“Data tells us that this problem existed long before the pandemic, but has worsened over the last year,” Kelly says.
The rise in reporting errors might also be owed in part to the fact that normally, credit reporting agencies are required to address complaints within 30 to 45 days, but the government extended this window early on in the pandemic, granting agencies more flexibility in their response time.
The current spike in reopening-induced demand has led to a (temporary, according to the Fed) period of inflation. Because inflation typically is associated with higher prices, it often leads to an increase in the demand for credit. At times like these, vigilance in spending is all the more crucial.
Kelly adds that moving forward, he expects to see more fluctuations in credit scores as people continue to spend more on big purchases such as vacations, weddings, and homes, but notes that not having a perfect credit score isn’t the end of the world.
“You can set yourself up to receive the best deals from lenders and credit card issuers with a credit score that is nowhere close to perfect,” Kelly says.