木材價格已經暴跌55%，但觸底反彈在即
Lance Lambert
2021-07-18
今年春季，木材價格一度上漲300%，讓建筑商和熱衷動手的達人們“聞之色變”。自此之后，木材價格開始快速下跌。
木材價格的下跌勢頭在7月初得到延續，至此已經連續第六周下跌。行業刊物《Fastmarkets Random Length》的數據顯示，7月9日，木材的“現貨”價格下跌81美元，至每千板英尺689美元，較5月28日創下的1515美元歷史高價已經下跌55%。
但如果你是一位動手達人，那么在家得寶（Home Depot）和勞氏（Lowe’s）的大箱子間穿梭尋找2乘4英尺的木板時，你就會發現，木材價格依然“高高在上”。何以如此？首先，木材現貨價格是批發價格，即鋸木廠給分銷商供貨的價格，上游價格傳導至零售環節自然需要一段時間。其次，當前的木材價格較2020年年初依然高出了84%，當時每千板英尺的價格是375美元。
那么零售環節的木材價格還要多久才能夠降下來呢？Sherwood Lumber公司的特種產品主管邁克爾·古德曼在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示，上游降價一般需要“大約60到90天才可以傳導到終端市場。”
對動手達人而言，壞消息是：木材價格泡沫破裂的時段可能已經結束。業內人士告訴《財富》雜志，在經過最近的下跌之后，木材價格或已觸底。
“我認為，現貨價格已經觸底。”古德曼說。
最近幾周，由于木材價格處于歷史高位，建筑商和動手達人的需求都有所降溫，這也讓鋸木廠和其他身處供應鏈之上的企業得以跟上市場需求，進而拉低了木材價格。但情況即將發生改變，從現在的情勢來看，今年野火季的影響似乎將會格外嚴重。在北美木材生產中心——不列顛哥倫比亞省和美國西北太平洋地區，大火已經開始肆虐。如果不列顛哥倫比亞省或俄勒岡州的工廠停產，木材價格或將再次迎來上漲。
6月11日，當木材的現貨市場價格仍然高于每千板英尺1300美元時，Fastmarkets RISI負責木材市場的高級經濟學家達斯汀·阿爾伯特就在推特（Twitter）上表示，相較一些買家的預期，今年每千板英尺木材的現貨市場價格跌至500至600美元的時間將會更早。事實上，對許多買家來說，木材價格迅速跌至689美元已經是驚喜。但阿爾伯特現在認為，由于野火季即將到來，加上價格下降后許多買家已經重回市場，木材價格“將在未來幾周迎來相當不錯的反彈”。
不過即便木材價格反彈，也不太可能出現今春那樣暴漲的情況。2020年夏季，木材價格大幅上漲，進入2021年，建筑商和銷售商都希望木材價格能夠有所回落。由于今春價格并未下跌，建筑商和銷售商開始爭相購買存貨。受此種“踩踏”、“夾倉”式搶購的影響，木材期貨價格一度飆升至1700美元以上。Deacon Lumber公司的首席執行官斯丁森·迪恩于6月接受《財富》雜志采訪時指出，市場上現在已經沒有這種動力了。
正如《財富》雜志此前報道的那樣，這場歷史性木材短缺由新冠疫情期間爆發的一系列因素共同引發。2020年春季新冠疫情爆發時，由于擔心房地產市場即將崩盤，鋸木廠降低了產量，同時削減了庫存。然而需求不僅沒有暴跌，反而出現了暴漲。美國人爭先恐后地涌向家得寶和勞氏，為自己的動手項目購買原材料，而經濟衰退引發的利率下跌則刺激了房地產市場的繁榮。這股熱潮又因為大批千禧一代進入購房高峰期而進一步升溫，導致房屋庫存枯竭，買家不得不搜尋新建房屋。房屋裝修和建造都需要大量木材，木材廠卻無力滿足洶涌的市場需求。（財富中文網）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
今年春季，木材價格一度上漲300%，讓建筑商和熱衷動手的達人們“聞之色變”。自此之后，木材價格開始快速下跌。
木材價格的下跌勢頭在7月初得到延續，至此已經連續第六周下跌。行業刊物《Fastmarkets Random Length》的數據顯示，7月9日，木材的“現貨”價格下跌81美元，至每千板英尺689美元，較5月28日創下的1515美元歷史高價已經下跌55%。
但如果你是一位動手達人，那么在家得寶（Home Depot）和勞氏（Lowe’s）的大箱子間穿梭尋找2乘4英尺的木板時，你就會發現，木材價格依然“高高在上”。何以如此？首先，木材現貨價格是批發價格，即鋸木廠給分銷商供貨的價格，上游價格傳導至零售環節自然需要一段時間。其次，當前的木材價格較2020年年初依然高出了84%，當時每千板英尺的價格是375美元。
那么零售環節的木材價格還要多久才能夠降下來呢？Sherwood Lumber公司的特種產品主管邁克爾·古德曼在接受《財富》雜志采訪時表示，上游降價一般需要“大約60到90天才可以傳導到終端市場。”
對動手達人而言，壞消息是：木材價格泡沫破裂的時段可能已經結束。業內人士告訴《財富》雜志，在經過最近的下跌之后，木材價格或已觸底。
“我認為，現貨價格已經觸底。”古德曼說。
最近幾周，由于木材價格處于歷史高位，建筑商和動手達人的需求都有所降溫，這也讓鋸木廠和其他身處供應鏈之上的企業得以跟上市場需求，進而拉低了木材價格。但情況即將發生改變，從現在的情勢來看，今年野火季的影響似乎將會格外嚴重。在北美木材生產中心——不列顛哥倫比亞省和美國西北太平洋地區，大火已經開始肆虐。如果不列顛哥倫比亞省或俄勒岡州的工廠停產，木材價格或將再次迎來上漲。
6月11日，當木材的現貨市場價格仍然高于每千板英尺1300美元時，Fastmarkets RISI負責木材市場的高級經濟學家達斯汀·阿爾伯特就在推特（Twitter）上表示，相較一些買家的預期，今年每千板英尺木材的現貨市場價格跌至500至600美元的時間將會更早。事實上，對許多買家來說，木材價格迅速跌至689美元已經是驚喜。但阿爾伯特現在認為，由于野火季即將到來，加上價格下降后許多買家已經重回市場，木材價格“將在未來幾周迎來相當不錯的反彈”。
不過即便木材價格反彈，也不太可能出現今春那樣暴漲的情況。2020年夏季，木材價格大幅上漲，進入2021年，建筑商和銷售商都希望木材價格能夠有所回落。由于今春價格并未下跌，建筑商和銷售商開始爭相購買存貨。受此種“踩踏”、“夾倉”式搶購的影響，木材期貨價格一度飆升至1700美元以上。Deacon Lumber公司的首席執行官斯丁森·迪恩于6月接受《財富》雜志采訪時指出，市場上現在已經沒有這種動力了。
正如《財富》雜志此前報道的那樣，這場歷史性木材短缺由新冠疫情期間爆發的一系列因素共同引發。2020年春季新冠疫情爆發時，由于擔心房地產市場即將崩盤，鋸木廠降低了產量，同時削減了庫存。然而需求不僅沒有暴跌，反而出現了暴漲。美國人爭先恐后地涌向家得寶和勞氏，為自己的動手項目購買原材料，而經濟衰退引發的利率下跌則刺激了房地產市場的繁榮。這股熱潮又因為大批千禧一代進入購房高峰期而進一步升溫，導致房屋庫存枯竭，買家不得不搜尋新建房屋。房屋裝修和建造都需要大量木材，木材廠卻無力滿足洶涌的市場需求。（財富中文網）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
At one point this spring the price of lumber was up over 300%—terrifying both homebuilders and DIYers. Since then, lumber has come crashing down.
That descent continued at the beginning of July, as it notched its sixth consecutive week of decline. On July 9, the "cash" price of lumber fell $81, to $689 per thousand board feet, according to industry trade publication Fastmarkets Random Lengths. That's a 55% drop from its $1,515 all-time high set on May 28.
But if you're a do-it-yourself maven searching for two by fours in the aisles of big boxes like Home Depot and Lowe’s, you'll likely notice that prices are still sky-high. The reason? For starters, the cash price of lumber is a wholesale price—it's what sawmills charge distributors—and it takes time for those price drops to be reflected on the retail side. Secondly, the price of lumber is still up 84% from the beginning of 2020, when it cost $375 per thousand board feet.
Just how long until these price cuts make their way into the aisles of big boxes? Michael Goodman, director of specialty products at Sherwood Lumber, tells Fortune each dip will take "about 60 to 90 days to get into the market."
The bad news for DIYers? The bursting of the lumber bubble could be over. Industry insiders tell Fortune this latest dip has likely taken prices near to their floor.
"I believe the cash has hit its bottom," Goodman says.
What's going on? In recent weeks, demand from homebuilders and DIYers has been cooling as a result of historically high wood prices. That has helped sawmills and the rest of the supply chain to catch up, thus lowering the price of lumber. But that story is about to change, now that we're at the beginning of what looks likely to become an unusually severe wildfire season. Already, fires are bursting out in British Columbia and the U.S. Pacific Northwest—the epicenters of North American lumber production. If mills in British Columbia or states like Oregon go offline, it could cause another upswing in the price of lumber.
On June 11, the cash market price was still above $1,300 per thousand board feet, Dustin Jalbert, a senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, where he covers the lumber market, tweeted that $500 to $600 per thousand board feet would come sooner than some buyers were expecting this year. Indeed, the swift drop to $689 is a pleasant surprise for many buyers. But now, Jalbert believes, the lumber market is "squared up for a pretty decent bounce in the coming weeks" as a result of wildfire season and some turned-off buyers returning to the market now that prices have corrected.
If an uptick comes again, it's unlikely to be anything like the run this spring. Heading into 2021, builders and vendors were hoping that lumber prices—which saw big upticks in the summer of 2020— would come back down. When the price didn't fall this spring, those builders and vendors scrambled to buy up inventory. That stampede—or short squeeze—caused the price soar to over $1,700 in the futures market. That dynamic is no longer in play, Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune in June.
As Fortune has previously reported, this historic lumber shortage was spurred by a perfect storm of factors set off during the pandemic. When COVID-19 broke out in spring 2020, sawmills cut production and unloaded inventory in fears of a looming housing crash. The crash didn't happen—instead, the opposite occurred. Americans rushed to Home Depot and Lowe’s to buy up materials for do-it-yourself projects, while recession-induced interest rates helped spur a housing boom. That boom, which was exacerbated by a large cohort of millennials starting to hit their peak homebuying years, dried up housing inventory and sent buyers in search of new construction. Home improvements and construction require a lot of lumber, and mills couldn't keep up.
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