鋼鐵價格上漲200%，泡沫何時會破？
LANCE LAMBERT
2021-07-12
你有沒有發現，最近冰箱、空調、汽車這些商品都漲價了？導致這種現象的一個重要原因就是鋼鐵價格的上漲。
自2020年3月起，鋼鐵價格已經上漲了215%，漲勢十分驚人。上周，熱軋鋼基準價格再創1825美元新高。而在新冠疫情之前，它的價格基本是在500美元到800美元的區間浮動。
到底發生了什么事？在2020年美國各地相繼“封城”的頭幾個月里，很多鋼鐵廠擔憂美國經濟陷入深度衰退，因而主動減產。但鐵礦石的需求下降趨勢并未持續很久。隔離在家的美國人依然抵制不住消費的沖動。很快，人們對烤箱和電冰箱等家店的需求又高了起來。鋼鐵廠也被這種高需求打了個措手不及。
Fastmarket公司的鋼鐵行業專家索斯騰?斯切爾告訴《財富》雜志：“由于人們的消費模式發生了變化，市場對鋼鐵和木材的需求超過了最初的預期。很多人不再追求體驗型消費和度假，而是開始買車、割草機或者白色家電，而這些產品都要大量用到鋼鐵。”
隨著美國經濟全面解封，有些疫情期間興起的趨勢也在慢慢衰退——比如在家做手工或者木工。因而木材市場也迎來了一次重新調整。5月28日，美國木材價格達到了1515美元每千板英尺的最高點（達到了疫情前的300%），而到了上周五，木材的現金價格已回落到770美元，足足下降了49%。不過，鋼鐵價格為什么沒有像木材一樣回落呢？
家電行業打個噴嚏，鋼材市場都會感冒。問題是，鋼鐵需要既不依賴于人們做手工的愛好，也不依賴于新房建設——自從3月以來，美國的建房熱也有所冷卻。同時，隨著美國經濟復蘇加快，很多鋼鐵密集型行業仍然處于高需求中，比如油氣行業。未來幾個月，隨著美國航空和交通的復蘇，石油公司和煉油廠必定會需要更多的鋼鐵。
斯切爾說：“我并不認為鋼鐵價格已經到頂，市場上大多數人都認為三季度需求還將進一步上漲。這種趨勢直到2022年才會好轉。總之就是需求緊張帶動了價格的上漲。”
另一個因素就是行業的融合。今年，美國鋼鐵巨頭Cleveland-Cliffs公司以11億美元收購了AK Steel公司，以14億美元收購了ArcelorMittal公司，基本上讓行業經歷了一次重新洗牌。斯切爾指出，目前市場基本被Cleveland-Cliffs和美國鋼鐵公司（United States Steel Corporation）兩大巨頭把持，所以他們也基本沒有增產的動力，因為提高供給就意味著價格下降。
另一個原因是全球供應鏈的問題，特別是芯片短缺的問題甚至已經影響了全球汽車行業。一旦芯片短缺的問題得到解決，汽車行業的產能將會加速，這也意味著鋼鐵需求將進一步增加。
斯切爾在他的短期評估中明確表示：“在短期內，鋼鐵價格還看不到任何回落的跡象。”（財富中文網）
譯者：樸成奎
你有沒有發現，最近冰箱、空調、汽車這些商品都漲價了？導致這種現象的一個重要原因就是鋼鐵價格的上漲。
自2020年3月起，鋼鐵價格已經上漲了215%，漲勢十分驚人。上周，熱軋鋼基準價格再創1825美元新高。而在新冠疫情之前，它的價格基本是在500美元到800美元的區間浮動。
到底發生了什么事？在2020年美國各地相繼“封城”的頭幾個月里，很多鋼鐵廠擔憂美國經濟陷入深度衰退，因而主動減產。但鐵礦石的需求下降趨勢并未持續很久。隔離在家的美國人依然抵制不住消費的沖動。很快，人們對烤箱和電冰箱等家店的需求又高了起來。鋼鐵廠也被這種高需求打了個措手不及。
Fastmarket公司的鋼鐵行業專家索斯騰?斯切爾告訴《財富》雜志：“由于人們的消費模式發生了變化，市場對鋼鐵和木材的需求超過了最初的預期。很多人不再追求體驗型消費和度假，而是開始買車、割草機或者白色家電，而這些產品都要大量用到鋼鐵。”
隨著美國經濟全面解封，有些疫情期間興起的趨勢也在慢慢衰退——比如在家做手工或者木工。因而木材市場也迎來了一次重新調整。5月28日，美國木材價格達到了1515美元每千板英尺的最高點（達到了疫情前的300%），而到了上周五，木材的現金價格已回落到770美元，足足下降了49%。不過，鋼鐵價格為什么沒有像木材一樣回落呢？
家電行業打個噴嚏，鋼材市場都會感冒。問題是，鋼鐵需要既不依賴于人們做手工的愛好，也不依賴于新房建設——自從3月以來，美國的建房熱也有所冷卻。同時，隨著美國經濟復蘇加快，很多鋼鐵密集型行業仍然處于高需求中，比如油氣行業。未來幾個月，隨著美國航空和交通的復蘇，石油公司和煉油廠必定會需要更多的鋼鐵。
斯切爾說：“我并不認為鋼鐵價格已經到頂，市場上大多數人都認為三季度需求還將進一步上漲。這種趨勢直到2022年才會好轉。總之就是需求緊張帶動了價格的上漲。”
另一個因素就是行業的融合。今年，美國鋼鐵巨頭Cleveland-Cliffs公司以11億美元收購了AK Steel公司，以14億美元收購了ArcelorMittal公司，基本上讓行業經歷了一次重新洗牌。斯切爾指出，目前市場基本被Cleveland-Cliffs和美國鋼鐵公司（United States Steel Corporation）兩大巨頭把持，所以他們也基本沒有增產的動力，因為提高供給就意味著價格下降。
另一個原因是全球供應鏈的問題，特別是芯片短缺的問題甚至已經影響了全球汽車行業。一旦芯片短缺的問題得到解決，汽車行業的產能將會加速，這也意味著鋼鐵需求將進一步增加。
斯切爾在他的短期評估中明確表示：“在短期內，鋼鐵價格還看不到任何回落的跡象。”（財富中文網）
譯者：樸成奎
What do refrigerators, air conditioning units, and new cars have in common? They're all seeing prices spike as manufacturers grapple with a worsening shortage of a key component: steel.
Since March 2020, steel prices are up a staggering 215%. The benchmark price for hot-rolled steel hit another all-time high last week, climbing to $1,825. Prior to the pandemic, it traded in the $500 to $800 range.
What's going on? During the early months of the 2020 shutdowns, many steel mills shut off production in fear that we were headed into a deep recession—maybe even a depression. But that drop-off in demand didn't last long for iron ore. Early in the pandemic, stuck at home Americans rushed to spruce up their abodes. Soon, steel-heavy products like grills and refrigerators were in high demand. That quick rebound caught steel mills off-guard.
"What happened, which is similar to lumber, demand during COVID-19 was stronger than first anticipated because of switches in consumption patterns. Instead of paying for experiences and vacations, they were buying a new lawn mower, buying a new car, or white goods like appliances—which are steel intensive," Thorsten Schier, a metals expert at Fastmarkets, tells Fortune.
As the U.S. begins to fully reopen, some pandemic-spurred trends, like lumber and steel intensive do-it-yourself home remodeling, are slowing down. That DIY pullback is, in part, helping to cause a correction in the lumber market: Since peaking at $1,515 per thousand board feet on May 28—which was 300% above its pre-pandemic price—the cash price of lumber is down 49% to $770 as of Friday. That begs the question: Why isn't steel seeing a similar correction?
Any pullback in household durables is certainly felt by steelmakers. However, unlike wood products, steel is less dependent on DIY or new home construction—which is also cooling down a bit from its March peak this year. In fact, many industries that are steel heavy, like oil and gas, are seeing their steel demand soar right now as the economy reopens. Oil producers and refineries will only need more steel in the coming months as Americans return to air travel and their daily commutes.
"I don't think we've hit the peak for steel prices. Most people in the market see strength through the third quarter, and some don't see it getting better on the buying side until 2022 sometime," Schier says. "It is just that supply is that tight. People are scrambling for material."
Another factor: Consolidation. Two major acquisitions last year by steelmaking titan Cleveland-Cliffs—AK Steel for $1.1 billion and U.S. steel mills from ArcelorMittal for $1.4 billion—has essentially made the steel industry a duopoly. That firm grip by Cleveland-Cliffs and United States Steel Corporation on the market, Schier says, leaves them with little incentive to increase production. After all, creating more supply would only mean their prices would fall.
The other wildcard at play are global supply chains issues. In particular, the chip shortage which is hampering new car production. Once the chip shortage is resolved, the automotive industry is expected to ramp-up. More cars rolling off production lines, means more steel demand.
Fastmarket's Schier was blunt with his short-term steel assessment: "There doesn't appear to be any sign that it is abating anytime soon."
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