新冠疫情已經證明,個人護理用品在日常生活中不可或缺。商店會努力保證貨架上有貨,而瘋狂的購物者會毫不猶豫地搶購他們能夠買到的任何東西。這可能迫使人們選擇舒適度更差的單層廁紙、再生面巾紙,甚至是便攜式清洗器。
這些東西并不新奇,實際上,大多數國家的人沒有超軟廁紙用,也都過得好好的。然而在美國,盡管豪華的柔軟紙巾增加了環境的負擔,但它已經變得司空見慣。
因為紙漿和紙質產品(紙巾、宣傳冊、包裝等)造成的不可持續林業種植情況,全球生態最重要的區域和物種正面臨威脅,包括生活在此的7億5000萬人(其中6000萬人是原住民)。然而,近幾年,消費者和利益相關方的期望,以及對商業風險與糟糕的可持續舉措的認識,正在指導各家企業轉型升級,想辦法保護全世界森林中的生物多樣性,以及在其中生活和工作的工人和社區的健康和權利。
金佰利公司(Kimberly-Clark)就是這樣一家企業,它的品牌Cottonelle、好奇(Huggies)、舒潔(Kleenex)、Poise、和高潔絲(Kotex)的U系列在175個國家銷售,在今年的《財富》美國500強中排名第158位。金佰利為保護森林重要生態系統所做的努力,是整個行業需要邁出的一大步。
所有生意都和森林有關
根據非盈利保護組織世界自然基金會(World Wildlife Fund)的數據,森林砍伐和退化正以每年1800萬英畝(約72843平方千米),或每分鐘27個足球場的速度破壞著森林。在這個重要的問題上,一份由As You Sow和Friends of the Earth撰寫的報告顯示,至少有380家上市公司的投資方,在生產、加工和交易棕櫚油、紙張和紙漿、橡膠、木材、肉?;虼蠖沟倪^程中對森林造成了威脅。
世界自然基金會負責森林業務的高級主管琳達?沃克表示:“可以說,所有生意都和森林有關,因為即便你不是一家林產品企業,每個人也都在以某種方式使用林產品。”從辦公家具、復印紙到公共廁所廁紙,再到包裝,我們會以各種方式依賴森林相關商品?!叭绻之a品來自于負責任管理的森林,那么這可能是一個很好的解決方案。森林能夠再生,可以支持野生動植物在其中生存。但如果它們得不到負責任的管理,或者森林(為了飼養肉牛或發展)被砍伐殆盡,那么這些價值就會受到影響或破壞?!?/p>
據世界自然基金會稱,美國是木材進口和消費大國,而這些木材來源于非法采伐和森林管理不善的高風險國家。金佰利是全球最大的個人護理產品制造商之一,在80多個國家中,其產品份額均排名第一或第二。全球四分之一的人口每天都在用該企業的產品。
為了確保其材料以負責任的方式采購,金佰利和國際非盈利型組織森林管理委員會(Forest Stewardship Council,簡稱FSC)合作超過十年。FSC制定了嚴格的環境、經濟、社會標準,督促森林的可持續管理。原材料的可持續采購對保護森林至關重要。FSC認證是一個自愿參照的市場標準,所以買家的需求和供應商的理念和經濟利益,是讓更多的森林管理者遵循FSC不可或缺的部分。
沃克說:“我們真心提倡像金佰利和其它公共紙張和木制品行業企業,在它們的采購政策上優先考慮將它們采購的原生纖維進行FSC認證。這樣可以幫助消費者了解,帶有FSC標志的產品,其采購方式保護了森林價值?!钡?025年,金佰利的目標是90%的紙巾纖維來自于環保材料,包括再生纖維、可持續的非木纖維和FSC產銷鏈認證的原木纖維。
用于超軟紙的軟木纖維
紙尿褲和女性護理用品使用一種名為“絨毛漿”的木漿纖維,用于提高吸水性。另一方面,為了配制紙巾產品,制造商們采用混合不同纖維的配方。例如,廁紙混合了北方森林(通常來自加拿大)的北方漂白軟木牛皮紙和南美常見的桉樹。針葉樹柔軟的纖維賦予了紙巾柔軟溫和,使其更加親膚。根據產品等級,可能會添加回收材料。在紙巾產品中添加的回收材料越多,產品就越粗糙。
加拿大的北方森林由用于紙巾的軟木樹木組成,是世界現存最大的完整森林,儲碳量是世界可采石油儲量的兩倍。非營利性組織自然資源保護協會(Natural Resources Defense Council)的北方企業活動經理謝莉?溫亞德說道:“北方森林提供給社區和地球的價值難以估量。”加拿大北方森林的砍伐極其嚴重,對600多個原住民社區、生物多樣性、碳儲存,以及依賴這片完整森林生存的物種(比如北美馴鹿)都構成了威脅。每年有超過100萬英畝(4047平方千米)的北方森林被砍伐殆盡?!氨狈缴置媾R的這些問題與我們每天在家使用的產品有著直接聯系。”
負責金佰利安全、可持續、和職業健康的副總裁麗莎?摩登說:“所以我們工作的重點就是保護和改善這些森林,因為它們在氣候方面起著重要作用?!币驗樯值目撤ズ驮偕?,衛生紙品的采伐類型被認為是一種森林退化風險??撤ヒ坏╅_始,重型機械會伐盡樹木并釋放存于土壤中的碳,從而改變森林的特性。
摩登繼續說道:“保護生物多樣性是一個大問題,所以盡管我們購買的商品并不一定會砍伐森林,但我們希望確保森林能夠得到保護和改善,這樣我們就不會看到這些森林地貌的退化?!?/p>
金佰利的紙巾產品中含有84%的環保纖維。大多數再生纖維都用于金佰利專業品牌產品,這些產品可以在學校、機場、酒店等地找到。然而,超市貨架上的超柔軟產品,包括寶潔(Procter & Gamble)的Charmin “Ultra Soft”系列,都使用極少量、或幾乎不使用回收材料。規模較小的企業,例如Who Gives a Crap和Seventh Generation,會100%使用回收材料,因為對小企業來說,達成這一目標會容易一些。
FSC的首席執行官克里斯?麥克拉倫說:“金佰利和其它公司強烈希望它們的產品能夠最大限度減少對原生纖維的依賴,但阻礙很大,原生纖維有其不可忽視的特性,如果不具備必要的基礎設施,就認為可以使用回收材料,那就太過簡單了?!币驗閹埥Y構的性質和大量的投入,僅僅使用回收材料或FSC認證的產品,很難滿足全球需求。即使回收材料能夠達到同等性能,這么大量的回收資源也無法一直得到保證,確保在某些地方、達到某個等級的回收材料供應也并非易事。
麥克拉倫說:“我認為,對整個社會而言,關鍵是我們要弄清楚,是否需要在這些產品中添加原生纖維,將它們變成我們想要的那樣。如果整個社會想清楚了這個問題,其實就是很好地激勵了森林業主去正確地管理森林、將其作為森林保留下來,而不是把森林變成用來蓋房子、搞農業,或用來做其它短期經濟回報更高的事情?!?/p>
過于豪華,無法沖走
2021年6月,世界自然基金會宣布了Forests Forward計劃,幫助公司和其他利益相關者更好地了解如何減輕采購、氣候和社會風險,并建立有彈性的供應鏈。金佰利公司是目前第一批加入的美國公司之一。其他公司包括惠普(HP)、國際紙業(International Paper)、威廉姆斯-索諾瑪(Williams-Sonoma),以及勞氏公司(Lowe’s)。
摩登說:“它是我們很棒的合作伙伴,因為它們在這些項目的未來方面幫助我們發揮思想領導作用,比如我們如何開始思考森林碳,以及我們如何思考生物多樣性保護。這種伙伴關系確實有助于我們思考未來需要采取哪些舉措來保護這些價值觀。”
隨著《財富》美國500強企業更傾向于采取環保和氣候行動,它們也在平衡價值驅動因素。對金佰利而言,價值驅動因素就包括了可負擔的價格、品牌品質,以及消費者的需求和期望。金佰利希望到2025年把天然(北方)森林纖維足跡減少一半,并采取其他可持續措施。參與像Forests Forward一樣的項目,并且在可替代非木纖維中創新(例如澳大利亞經FSC認證的100%竹制產品新型舒潔ECO廁紙),在此過程中,金佰利將不斷評估紙張和紙漿問題。
然而,在我們幾秒種就用掉柔軟廁紙的背后,百年大樹依然在消失。
麥克拉倫說:“轉向100%負責任的采購,需要這個系統中規模最大的企業來帶頭,因為它們所做的承諾和它們的做法對整個體系的影響最大。但總體來說,要想實現穩定的負責任(森林管理),我們必須付出比現在更多的努力。”(財富中文網)
譯者:張曉晨
新冠疫情已經證明,個人護理用品在日常生活中不可或缺。商店會努力保證貨架上有貨,而瘋狂的購物者會毫不猶豫地搶購他們能夠買到的任何東西。這可能迫使人們選擇舒適度更差的單層廁紙、再生面巾紙,甚至是便攜式清洗器。
這些東西并不新奇,實際上,大多數國家的人沒有超軟廁紙用,也都過得好好的。然而在美國,盡管豪華的柔軟紙巾增加了環境的負擔,但它已經變得司空見慣。
因為紙漿和紙質產品(紙巾、宣傳冊、包裝等)造成的不可持續林業種植情況,全球生態最重要的區域和物種正面臨威脅,包括生活在此的7億5000萬人(其中6000萬人是原住民)。然而,近幾年,消費者和利益相關方的期望,以及對商業風險與糟糕的可持續舉措的認識,正在指導各家企業轉型升級,想辦法保護全世界森林中的生物多樣性,以及在其中生活和工作的工人和社區的健康和權利。
金佰利公司(Kimberly-Clark)就是這樣一家企業,它的品牌Cottonelle、好奇(Huggies)、舒潔(Kleenex)、Poise、和高潔絲(Kotex)的U系列在175個國家銷售,在今年的《財富》美國500強中排名第158位。金佰利為保護森林重要生態系統所做的努力,是整個行業需要邁出的一大步。
所有生意都和森林有關
根據非盈利保護組織世界自然基金會(World Wildlife Fund)的數據,森林砍伐和退化正以每年1800萬英畝(約72843平方千米),或每分鐘27個足球場的速度破壞著森林。在這個重要的問題上,一份由As You Sow和Friends of the Earth撰寫的報告顯示,至少有380家上市公司的投資方,在生產、加工和交易棕櫚油、紙張和紙漿、橡膠、木材、肉?;虼蠖沟倪^程中對森林造成了威脅。
世界自然基金會負責森林業務的高級主管琳達?沃克表示:“可以說,所有生意都和森林有關,因為即便你不是一家林產品企業,每個人也都在以某種方式使用林產品?!睆霓k公家具、復印紙到公共廁所廁紙,再到包裝,我們會以各種方式依賴森林相關商品?!叭绻之a品來自于負責任管理的森林,那么這可能是一個很好的解決方案。森林能夠再生,可以支持野生動植物在其中生存。但如果它們得不到負責任的管理,或者森林(為了飼養肉?;虬l展)被砍伐殆盡,那么這些價值就會受到影響或破壞?!?/p>
據世界自然基金會稱,美國是木材進口和消費大國,而這些木材來源于非法采伐和森林管理不善的高風險國家。金佰利是全球最大的個人護理產品制造商之一,在80多個國家中,其產品份額均排名第一或第二。全球四分之一的人口每天都在用該企業的產品。
為了確保其材料以負責任的方式采購,金佰利和國際非盈利型組織森林管理委員會(Forest Stewardship Council,簡稱FSC)合作超過十年。FSC制定了嚴格的環境、經濟、社會標準,督促森林的可持續管理。原材料的可持續采購對保護森林至關重要。FSC認證是一個自愿參照的市場標準,所以買家的需求和供應商的理念和經濟利益,是讓更多的森林管理者遵循FSC不可或缺的部分。
沃克說:“我們真心提倡像金佰利和其它公共紙張和木制品行業企業,在它們的采購政策上優先考慮將它們采購的原生纖維進行FSC認證。這樣可以幫助消費者了解,帶有FSC標志的產品,其采購方式保護了森林價值?!钡?025年,金佰利的目標是90%的紙巾纖維來自于環保材料,包括再生纖維、可持續的非木纖維和FSC產銷鏈認證的原木纖維。
用于超軟紙的軟木纖維
紙尿褲和女性護理用品使用一種名為“絨毛漿”的木漿纖維,用于提高吸水性。另一方面,為了配制紙巾產品,制造商們采用混合不同纖維的配方。例如,廁紙混合了北方森林(通常來自加拿大)的北方漂白軟木牛皮紙和南美常見的桉樹。針葉樹柔軟的纖維賦予了紙巾柔軟溫和,使其更加親膚。根據產品等級,可能會添加回收材料。在紙巾產品中添加的回收材料越多,產品就越粗糙。
加拿大的北方森林由用于紙巾的軟木樹木組成,是世界現存最大的完整森林,儲碳量是世界可采石油儲量的兩倍。非營利性組織自然資源保護協會(Natural Resources Defense Council)的北方企業活動經理謝莉?溫亞德說道:“北方森林提供給社區和地球的價值難以估量。”加拿大北方森林的砍伐極其嚴重,對600多個原住民社區、生物多樣性、碳儲存,以及依賴這片完整森林生存的物種(比如北美馴鹿)都構成了威脅。每年有超過100萬英畝(4047平方千米)的北方森林被砍伐殆盡。“北方森林面臨的這些問題與我們每天在家使用的產品有著直接聯系?!?/p>
負責金佰利安全、可持續、和職業健康的副總裁麗莎?摩登說:“所以我們工作的重點就是保護和改善這些森林,因為它們在氣候方面起著重要作用?!币驗樯值目撤ズ驮偕?,衛生紙品的采伐類型被認為是一種森林退化風險。砍伐一旦開始,重型機械會伐盡樹木并釋放存于土壤中的碳,從而改變森林的特性。
摩登繼續說道:“保護生物多樣性是一個大問題,所以盡管我們購買的商品并不一定會砍伐森林,但我們希望確保森林能夠得到保護和改善,這樣我們就不會看到這些森林地貌的退化?!?/p>
金佰利的紙巾產品中含有84%的環保纖維。大多數再生纖維都用于金佰利專業品牌產品,這些產品可以在學校、機場、酒店等地找到。然而,超市貨架上的超柔軟產品,包括寶潔(Procter & Gamble)的Charmin “Ultra Soft”系列,都使用極少量、或幾乎不使用回收材料。規模較小的企業,例如Who Gives a Crap和Seventh Generation,會100%使用回收材料,因為對小企業來說,達成這一目標會容易一些。
FSC的首席執行官克里斯?麥克拉倫說:“金佰利和其它公司強烈希望它們的產品能夠最大限度減少對原生纖維的依賴,但阻礙很大,原生纖維有其不可忽視的特性,如果不具備必要的基礎設施,就認為可以使用回收材料,那就太過簡單了。”因為廁紙結構的性質和大量的投入,僅僅使用回收材料或FSC認證的產品,很難滿足全球需求。即使回收材料能夠達到同等性能,這么大量的回收資源也無法一直得到保證,確保在某些地方、達到某個等級的回收材料供應也并非易事。
麥克拉倫說:“我認為,對整個社會而言,關鍵是我們要弄清楚,是否需要在這些產品中添加原生纖維,將它們變成我們想要的那樣。如果整個社會想清楚了這個問題,其實就是很好地激勵了森林業主去正確地管理森林、將其作為森林保留下來,而不是把森林變成用來蓋房子、搞農業,或用來做其它短期經濟回報更高的事情?!?/p>
過于豪華,無法沖走
2021年6月,世界自然基金會宣布了Forests Forward計劃,幫助公司和其他利益相關者更好地了解如何減輕采購、氣候和社會風險,并建立有彈性的供應鏈。金佰利公司是目前第一批加入的美國公司之一。其他公司包括惠普(HP)、國際紙業(International Paper)、威廉姆斯-索諾瑪(Williams-Sonoma),以及勞氏公司(Lowe’s)。
摩登說:“它是我們很棒的合作伙伴,因為它們在這些項目的未來方面幫助我們發揮思想領導作用,比如我們如何開始思考森林碳,以及我們如何思考生物多樣性保護。這種伙伴關系確實有助于我們思考未來需要采取哪些舉措來保護這些價值觀?!?/p>
隨著《財富》美國500強企業更傾向于采取環保和氣候行動,它們也在平衡價值驅動因素。對金佰利而言,價值驅動因素就包括了可負擔的價格、品牌品質,以及消費者的需求和期望。金佰利希望到2025年把天然(北方)森林纖維足跡減少一半,并采取其他可持續措施。參與像Forests Forward一樣的項目,并且在可替代非木纖維中創新(例如澳大利亞經FSC認證的100%竹制產品新型舒潔ECO廁紙),在此過程中,金佰利將不斷評估紙張和紙漿問題。
然而,在我們幾秒種就用掉柔軟廁紙的背后,百年大樹依然在消失。
麥克拉倫說:“轉向100%負責任的采購,需要這個系統中規模最大的企業來帶頭,因為它們所做的承諾和它們的做法對整個體系的影響最大。但總體來說,要想實現穩定的負責任(森林管理),我們必須付出比現在更多的努力?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)
譯者:張曉晨
As the pandemic proved, personal care items are indispensable to everyday life. Stores struggled to keep shelves stocked as frantic shoppers grabbed whatever they could without a second thought. This may have forced people to explore outside their comfort level to use one-ply toilet paper, facial tissue made of recycled fibers, or even portable bidets.
But these things aren't novel; in fact, most countries get by without the prestige of an ultrasoft wipe. In America, however, the luxury of plush tissue has become commonplace, despite its strain on the environment.
The world's most ecologically important places and species, along with the 750 million people who live there, 60 million of whom are indigenous, are threatened because of unsustainable forestry related to pulp and paper products (tissue, catalog paper, packaging, etc.). In recent years, though, consumer and stakeholder expectations (and recognizing the business risk associated with poor sustainable initiatives) are guiding companies to evolve and seek solutions to protect the health, biodiversity, and rights of workers and communities of the world's forests.
With its brands sold in more than 175 countries, Kimberly-Clark—maker of Cottonelle, Huggies, Kleenex, Poise, and U by Kotex, and No. 158 on the Fortune 500 this year—is one such company. Kimberly-Clark’s efforts to safeguard forests’ vital ecosystems are one step in a giant leap the entire industry needs to take.
Every business is in the forest business
According to the conservation nonprofit World Wildlife Fund (WWF), deforestation and degradation are destroying forests at the rate of about 18 million acres per year, or 27 soccer fields per minute. Looking at the overarching issue, a report created by As You Sow and Friends of the Earth shows that investors in at least 380 publicly listed companies are linked to forest risks in producing, processing, and trading palm oil, paper and pulp, rubber, timber, cattle, or soybeans.
"We like to say every business is in the forest business, because even if you're not a forest products company, everyone uses forest products in some way," says Linda Walker, senior director of corporate engagement for forests at WWF. From office furniture and copy paper to communal bathroom tissue to packaging, we now innately rely on forests as a commodity. "Forest products can be a great solution if they come from forests that have been responsibly managed. A forest can be renewable and sustain wildlife. But if they're not managed responsibly or if they're clear-cut [for cattle or development], those values can be impacted or destroyed."
The United States is a leading importer and consumer of wood from countries considered high risk for illegal logging and poor forest management, according to WWF. Kimberly-Clark is one of the world’s largest producers of personal care products and holds the No. 1 and 2 brand shares in 80 countries. A quarter of the world’s population uses one of the conglomerate's products each day.
To ensure its materials are responsibly sourced, Kimberly-Clark has partnered for more than a decade with the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), a international nonprofit that sets rigorous environmental, economic, and social standards to promote sustainable forest management. Sustainable procurement of raw materials is vital to forest conservation. The FSC certification is a voluntary market standard, so demand on the part of buyers, as well as philosophical and economic benefits on the suppliers’ part, is integral in getting more forest managers to comply with FSC.
"We really advocate for companies like Kimberly-Clark and others in the public paper and wood products sectors to preference in their sourcing policies for an FSC certification for the virgin fiber that they source. Doing so can help consumers know that the products with [an FSC] logo have been sourced in a way that protects those values," says Walker. Kimberly-Clark aims to acquire 90% of its tissue fiber from environmentally preferred sources by 2025, including recycled fiber, sustainable alternative non-wood fibers, and FSC chain-of-custody certified virgin wood fibers.
Softwood fibers for ultrasoft paper
Diapers and feminine care use wood pulp fibers known as "fluff pulp" to obtain high absorbency. On the other hand, to concoct a tissue product, manufacturers use a sort of recipe of blended various fibers. For example, toilet paper is a mixture of northern bleached softwood kraft from boreal forests (often from Canada) and eucalyptus typically from South America. The softer fibers of coniferous trees lend to the supple, gentle tissue papers gentle on the skin. Depending on the grade of the product, recycled materials may be incorporated. The more recycled content used in a tissue paper product, the rougher it is.
Canada's boreal forest, which comprises softwood used for tissue, is the largest remaining intact forest on the planet and stores the carbon equivalent of twice the world's recoverable oil reserves. "It's really hard to overstate the values that the boreal forest provides to communities and to the planet," says Shelley Vinyard, the boreal corporate campaign manager at Natural Resources Defense Council, a nonprofit environmental advocacy group. Logging in Canada's boreal forest is extensive, creating a threat to 600 indigenous communities, biodiversity, stored carbon, and to the species that rely on a swath of intact forest land to survive, such as the threatened woodland caribou. More than a million acres of the boreal are clear-cut every year. "Some of the problems facing the boreal are tied directly to products that we use every day in our homes."
"That's where a lot of our effort is very much focused—helping to protect and enhance those forests in the world because they play such a critical role in climate," says Lisa Morden, vice president of safety, sustainability, and occupational health at Kimberly-Clark. The type of logging in hygiene paper products is considered a degradation risk where forests are cut down and regrown. At the outset of logging, heavy machinery clear-cuts the trees and releases carbon stored in the soil, altering the nature of the forest.
"Biodiversity protection is a huge issue," Morden continues. "So while the commodities that we purchase aren't necessarily deforestation, we want to be sure that forest quality is protected and enhanced, so we don't see degradation of those forest landscapes."
Kimberly-Clark’s tissue products contain 84% environmentally preferred fiber. Most of its recycled fibers are used in its Kimberly-Clark Professional brand found in schools, airports, hotels, and so forth. However, corporations’ supersoft products seen on grocery shelves, including Procter & Gamble's Charmin “Ultra Soft” lines, use little to no recycled materials. Smaller businesses like Who Gives a Crap and Seventh Generation contain 100% recyclables, an easier undertaking at a lesser scale.
"There is a strong desire on the part of Kimberly-Clark and others to minimize their dependence on virgin fiber in these products. But there are significant challenges in doing that," says Chris McLaren, CEO of the FSC. "Virgin fibers have specific characteristics that can't be ignored, and it's overly simplistic to assume you can move to recyclable material when the infrastructure isn't necessarily there." Because of the very nature of toilet paper's composition and its numerous inputs, it is tricky to use only recycled or FSC-certified products and still meet global demand. Even if recycled materials could achieve the same performance, those resources aren't always accessible at scale or available in the right places or grades.
"I think the key for us as a society is to figure out if we need virgin fiber in these products in order to make them work the way we want them to work," says McLaren. "If you do it that way, you're actually giving the forest owner a really good incentive to manage that forest correctly and keep it as a forest instead of converting it into real estate or agriculture or some other land use with a higher short-term economic value."
Too plush to flush
In June 2021, WWF announced its Forests Forward program to help companies and other stakeholders better understand how to mitigate sourcing, climate, and social risks, and build resilient supply chains. Kimberly-Clark is one of the first U.S. companies currently on board. Others include HP, International Paper, Williams-Sonoma, and Lowe’s.
"It's such a great partner for us because they help with thought leadership in terms of the future of these programs; how do we begin to think about forest carbon, and how do we think about biodiversity protection," says Morden. "That partnership really helps us to think through what those initiatives in the future need to be to protect those values."
As Fortune 500 companies lean into environmental and climate action, they’re also balancing value drivers. For Kimberly-Clark, that’s affordable prices, quality associated with the brands, and what consumers need, want, and expect. By 2025, the company hopes to reduce its natural (northern) forest fiber footprint by 50%, among other sustainable initiatives. Participating in programs like Forests Forward and innovating within alternative non-wood fibers—like FSC-certified 100% bamboo for the new Kleenex ECO toilet paper available in Australia—Kimberly-Clark is continuously assessing issues in paper and pulp.
Still, trees hundreds of years old are being lost for soft toilet paper we use in just seconds.
"The largest companies in the system are the most visible in the types of commitments that they're making and the type of work that they're undertaking in order to pivot to responsible sourcing 100%," says McLaren. "But if you look at the overall picture, we certainly need to be doing more than we are now in order to achieve something like stability."