作為美國知名房地產專家和曾經的房利美(Fannie Mae)首席信用官,埃德?平托在近五十年來,從未見過今年5月這樣的房價漲勢。現任美國企業研究所住房中心(American Enterprise Institute's Housing Center)主任的平托說:“高端房地產的價格較去年5月增長了25%,總體漲幅達到15%。推動房價暴漲的原因是套利的機會。在新冠疫情爆發之前,人們只能夠在高房價的沿海城市里工作,而居家辦公打破了工作地的束縛,使人們可以搬到其他城市,用同樣的錢購買更寬敞的住房,甚至在大部分情況下,人們只需要支付更低的價格。”他表示,盡管菲尼克斯、羅利和匹茲堡等地的房價維持上漲的趨勢,但對逃離波士頓或圣何塞這些大都市的人們來說,這些地方的房產依舊物超所值。他認為,未來幾個月,全美房價依舊有大幅上漲的巨大空間,在2022年將恢復到10%的年增長率。
平托從已交割房屋出售交易中匯總了5月的房價上漲幅度(簡稱HPA)數據。之后他利用這些數據,通過跟蹤相同住房在不同時期的價格變化,計算出房價上漲幅度。他將美國房地產市場分成低、中低、中高和高四個價格等級:每個等級均基于一個城市中在已公開記錄中報告的所有住房的平均售價。“低”價格等級中的房屋售價為市區有聯邦住房管理局(FHA)抵押貸款的所有房屋平均售價的40%以下;“中低”價格等級中的房屋售價為聯邦住房管理局市區平均售價的40%至80%;“中高”價格等級的房屋售價為房利美和房地美(Freddie Mac)最高貸款限額的80%至125%;“高”價格等級的售價則超過125%。例如,在菲尼克斯,房利美或房地美的最高貸款限額為548,000美元,所以“高”價格等級的房屋售價最低為685,000美元。
四個價格等級在5月的漲幅,創下了美國企業研究所9年以來的最高月度漲幅紀錄。但最讓平托感到吃驚的是,中高和高價格等級的房屋售價上漲了25%,一方面因為它打破了紀錄,而且與其他類別相比,這個漲勢不同尋常。平托說:“在市場繁榮時期,通常是低端房屋市場表現最為搶眼,到目前為止都是如此。但高端住房市場的出色表現意味著高收入者正在遷移,他們可能選擇賣掉在高房價的城市里的住房,搬到房價更低的地方生活。”(5月,低和中低價格等級的房價年同比漲幅分別為14%和15%。)
平托通過分析從覆蓋近一半市場的貸款機構收集到的“鎖定利率”數據,還能夠預測7月和8月有封閉貸款的住房房價上漲幅度。根據去年的鎖定利率,他預測全國年同比漲幅為17%至18%,比5月高出兩至三個百分點。這些價格來自已經簽約的購房合同,是購房人獲得購房貸款時報告的價格。這些房屋實際上在平托收集“鎖定利率”數據之后約45天才正式交割。所以他的數據是對市場未來走向最好的前瞻性預測。
平托指出,美國的房地產市場需要分為兩個部分。用他的話說,美國房地產市場應該分為東西海岸和其他地區。他表示:“25%的美國人生活在如西雅圖、舊金山、洛杉磯、紐約和波士頓等高房價的沿海城市。在這些城市,平均房價幾乎是本地中位數收入的7倍。”另外75%的美國人生活在“其他地區”,主要是位于“陽光地帶”和“鐵銹地帶”的內陸城市。他指出:“在其他地區,房價是中位數收入的3.5倍,只有沿海城市房價的一半。這種價格差異所形成的高壓動態,正在吸引人們前往房屋供應量充足且房價更低的城市。”
平托認為,新冠疫情給房地產市場帶來了結構性轉變。“幾十年來,美國房地產市場被20世紀50年代發起于加州的NIMBY(別建在我家后院)運動扭曲,該運動隨后蔓延到其他沿海城市。”NIMBY運動催生了嚴格的區域劃分法律,其導致的高成本嚴重限制了新建住宅,迫使洛杉磯或西雅圖家庭只能夠支付更高的價格,購買相對較小、年代久遠的住房。與此同時,羅利、菲尼克斯、亞特蘭大和達拉斯等城市開發了大批新住宅區,相比之下,這些城市里的住房更值得購買。
在圣何塞和菲尼克斯類似地塊上開發的相同面積的房屋,在房價上有巨大差異,但在疫情改變美國人的生活方式之前,人們很難利用兩個城市的價差。平托稱:“如果你的辦公室在圣何塞,你只能在那里工作。”但隨著居家辦公經濟的興起,打個比方,一名軟件工程師可以賣掉在圣何塞的房子,保留在西海岸的工資,然后買一套更寬敞的住房,還能夠有銀行存款。平托認為:“從某種意義上來說,菲尼克斯正在變成圣何塞的衛星城,承接圣何塞的辦公功能。”他引用了從兩個市場的數據中得到的一個例子。一名市場營銷高管或顧問以100萬美元的價格賣掉在圣何塞的房子,能夠用一半的價格在菲尼克斯買一套面積增加28%的住宅,而且住宅所占的地塊面積比原先的住房擴大了超過三分之一。
不出所料,從佛羅里達到加州的“內陸帝國”等南部地區的房價漲幅最大。鹽湖城房價年同比上漲了17%,里弗賽德-圣貝納迪諾上漲18%,薩拉索塔上漲19%,羅利和奧斯汀的房價分別上漲了21%和22%。漲幅最大的是菲尼克斯,同一套住房現在的售價比2020年5月上漲了25%。
另外一個受益者是工業城市,這些城市近幾十年來人口增長緩慢,因此房價極低。如今,這些城市的房地產市場也迎來了繁榮。5月,明尼阿波利斯的房價年同比上漲12%,匹茲堡和哥倫布的房價分別上漲了15%和16%。
你或許以為在東西海岸城市,隨著大量人口流出,當地昂貴的單戶住宅肯定會受到沖擊。但事實并非如此。平托說:“原因是洛杉磯、舊金山和西雅圖等城市擁有龐大的市場,還有大批租房者現在希望買房。”換言之,當前的趨勢不只是人們從高房價的城市向低房價的城市遷徙。還有大批在市區租房的市民,選擇搬到郊區購買寬敞的住房,在這里夫妻兩人能夠居家辦公,還可以在后院打羽毛球。平托指出:“加州的房地產自有率全國最低。但現在,人們正在從辦公室對面月租5,000美元的公寓,搬到30英里以外的郊區購房。”
房價大幅上漲的趨勢還能夠持續多久?在房地產市場繁榮的大部分時期,平托都曾經準確預測,高房價會增加建筑數量,從而放緩價格上漲的速度。換言之,至少在有大量新建項目的陽光地帶城市,高房價的解決方案就是高房價本身。平托表示,這種兩位數增長不可能持久,因為即使美國維持低利率,房屋價格也會很快超出大部分美國人的承受能力。但他認為,2021年,美國房地產價格將上漲10%,在2022年和2023年漲幅下降到較為正常的5%至6%。他說:“這是因為沿海城市和其他市場的房價有巨大的差距。隨著人們繼續從高房價城市遷徙到低房價城市,后者的房價會持續快速上漲,而上漲后的價格對從沿海城市搬來的高收入者而言依舊物有所值。”
新冠疫情帶來的最積極的影響或許是打破了NIMBY運動的束縛,讓美國人可以自由選擇有寬敞的廚房、三間臥室和后院的大房子,讓人們依舊有能力去追求美國夢。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
作為美國知名房地產專家和曾經的房利美(Fannie Mae)首席信用官,埃德?平托在近五十年來,從未見過今年5月這樣的房價漲勢。現任美國企業研究所住房中心(American Enterprise Institute's Housing Center)主任的平托說:“高端房地產的價格較去年5月增長了25%,總體漲幅達到15%。推動房價暴漲的原因是套利的機會。在新冠疫情爆發之前,人們只能夠在高房價的沿海城市里工作,而居家辦公打破了工作地的束縛,使人們可以搬到其他城市,用同樣的錢購買更寬敞的住房,甚至在大部分情況下,人們只需要支付更低的價格。”他表示,盡管菲尼克斯、羅利和匹茲堡等地的房價維持上漲的趨勢,但對逃離波士頓或圣何塞這些大都市的人們來說,這些地方的房產依舊物超所值。他認為,未來幾個月,全美房價依舊有大幅上漲的巨大空間,在2022年將恢復到10%的年增長率。
平托從已交割房屋出售交易中匯總了5月的房價上漲幅度(簡稱HPA)數據。之后他利用這些數據,通過跟蹤相同住房在不同時期的價格變化,計算出房價上漲幅度。他將美國房地產市場分成低、中低、中高和高四個價格等級:每個等級均基于一個城市中在已公開記錄中報告的所有住房的平均售價。“低”價格等級中的房屋售價為市區有聯邦住房管理局(FHA)抵押貸款的所有房屋平均售價的40%以下;“中低”價格等級中的房屋售價為聯邦住房管理局市區平均售價的40%至80%;“中高”價格等級的房屋售價為房利美和房地美(Freddie Mac)最高貸款限額的80%至125%;“高”價格等級的售價則超過125%。例如,在菲尼克斯,房利美或房地美的最高貸款限額為548,000美元,所以“高”價格等級的房屋售價最低為685,000美元。
四個價格等級在5月的漲幅,創下了美國企業研究所9年以來的最高月度漲幅紀錄。但最讓平托感到吃驚的是,中高和高價格等級的房屋售價上漲了25%,一方面因為它打破了紀錄,而且與其他類別相比,這個漲勢不同尋常。平托說:“在市場繁榮時期,通常是低端房屋市場表現最為搶眼,到目前為止都是如此。但高端住房市場的出色表現意味著高收入者正在遷移,他們可能選擇賣掉在高房價的城市里的住房,搬到房價更低的地方生活。”(5月,低和中低價格等級的房價年同比漲幅分別為14%和15%。)
平托通過分析從覆蓋近一半市場的貸款機構收集到的“鎖定利率”數據,還能夠預測7月和8月有封閉貸款的住房房價上漲幅度。根據去年的鎖定利率,他預測全國年同比漲幅為17%至18%,比5月高出兩至三個百分點。這些價格來自已經簽約的購房合同,是購房人獲得購房貸款時報告的價格。這些房屋實際上在平托收集“鎖定利率”數據之后約45天才正式交割。所以他的數據是對市場未來走向最好的前瞻性預測。
平托指出,美國的房地產市場需要分為兩個部分。用他的話說,美國房地產市場應該分為東西海岸和其他地區。他表示:“25%的美國人生活在如西雅圖、舊金山、洛杉磯、紐約和波士頓等高房價的沿海城市。在這些城市,平均房價幾乎是本地中位數收入的7倍。”另外75%的美國人生活在“其他地區”,主要是位于“陽光地帶”和“鐵銹地帶”的內陸城市。他指出:“在其他地區,房價是中位數收入的3.5倍,只有沿海城市房價的一半。這種價格差異所形成的高壓動態,正在吸引人們前往房屋供應量充足且房價更低的城市。”
平托認為,新冠疫情給房地產市場帶來了結構性轉變。“幾十年來,美國房地產市場被20世紀50年代發起于加州的NIMBY(別建在我家后院)運動扭曲,該運動隨后蔓延到其他沿海城市。”NIMBY運動催生了嚴格的區域劃分法律,其導致的高成本嚴重限制了新建住宅,迫使洛杉磯或西雅圖家庭只能夠支付更高的價格,購買相對較小、年代久遠的住房。與此同時,羅利、菲尼克斯、亞特蘭大和達拉斯等城市開發了大批新住宅區,相比之下,這些城市里的住房更值得購買。
在圣何塞和菲尼克斯類似地塊上開發的相同面積的房屋,在房價上有巨大差異,但在疫情改變美國人的生活方式之前,人們很難利用兩個城市的價差。平托稱:“如果你的辦公室在圣何塞,你只能在那里工作。”但隨著居家辦公經濟的興起,打個比方,一名軟件工程師可以賣掉在圣何塞的房子,保留在西海岸的工資,然后買一套更寬敞的住房,還能夠有銀行存款。平托認為:“從某種意義上來說,菲尼克斯正在變成圣何塞的衛星城,承接圣何塞的辦公功能。”他引用了從兩個市場的數據中得到的一個例子。一名市場營銷高管或顧問以100萬美元的價格賣掉在圣何塞的房子,能夠用一半的價格在菲尼克斯買一套面積增加28%的住宅,而且住宅所占的地塊面積比原先的住房擴大了超過三分之一。
不出所料,從佛羅里達到加州的“內陸帝國”等南部地區的房價漲幅最大。鹽湖城房價年同比上漲了17%,里弗賽德-圣貝納迪諾上漲18%,薩拉索塔上漲19%,羅利和奧斯汀的房價分別上漲了21%和22%。漲幅最大的是菲尼克斯,同一套住房現在的售價比2020年5月上漲了25%。
另外一個受益者是工業城市,這些城市近幾十年來人口增長緩慢,因此房價極低。如今,這些城市的房地產市場也迎來了繁榮。5月,明尼阿波利斯的房價年同比上漲12%,匹茲堡和哥倫布的房價分別上漲了15%和16%。
你或許以為在東西海岸城市,隨著大量人口流出,當地昂貴的單戶住宅肯定會受到沖擊。但事實并非如此。平托說:“原因是洛杉磯、舊金山和西雅圖等城市擁有龐大的市場,還有大批租房者現在希望買房。”換言之,當前的趨勢不只是人們從高房價的城市向低房價的城市遷徙。還有大批在市區租房的市民,選擇搬到郊區購買寬敞的住房,在這里夫妻兩人能夠居家辦公,還可以在后院打羽毛球。平托指出:“加州的房地產自有率全國最低。但現在,人們正在從辦公室對面月租5,000美元的公寓,搬到30英里以外的郊區購房。”
房價大幅上漲的趨勢還能夠持續多久?在房地產市場繁榮的大部分時期,平托都曾經準確預測,高房價會增加建筑數量,從而放緩價格上漲的速度。換言之,至少在有大量新建項目的陽光地帶城市,高房價的解決方案就是高房價本身。平托表示,這種兩位數增長不可能持久,因為即使美國維持低利率,房屋價格也會很快超出大部分美國人的承受能力。但他認為,2021年,美國房地產價格將上漲10%,在2022年和2023年漲幅下降到較為正常的5%至6%。他說:“這是因為沿海城市和其他市場的房價有巨大的差距。隨著人們繼續從高房價城市遷徙到低房價城市,后者的房價會持續快速上漲,而上漲后的價格對從沿海城市搬來的高收入者而言依舊物有所值。”
新冠疫情帶來的最積極的影響或許是打破了NIMBY運動的束縛,讓美國人可以自由選擇有寬敞的廚房、三間臥室和后院的大房子,讓人們依舊有能力去追求美國夢。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
In almost five decades as one of America's top housing experts, including a stint as chief credit officer of Fannie Mae, Ed Pinto has never seen prices climb at anything like the pace he's seeing for May. "The high end is up 25% over May of last year, and the overall increase is 15%," says Pinto, director of the American Enterprise Institute's Housing Center. "What's driving those incredible increases is an arbitrage opportunity. The work from home economy has unleashed people who before the pandemic were tied to jobs in expensive coastal metros and empowered them to move to cities where they can get a lot more house for the same or in most cases less money." He notes that even though the trend is inflating values in places like Phoenix, Raleigh and Pittsburgh, those locales remain such a great bargain for the refugees from Boston or San Jose. He believes nationwide prices have plenty of room to keep surging at comparable rates in the coming months, before moderating to an annual increase of 10% in 2022.
Pinto collects his May home price appreciation (or HPA) figures from closed sales. He then uses these data to calculate HPAs by tracking changes in prices for the same homes from one period to the next. He divides the market into four price tiers: low, low-medium, medium-high, and high. Each is based on the average sales price in a metro for all the homes reported in the public records. "Low" encompasses all houses selling at 40% or less of the average sales price of houses with FHA mortgages in the metro area; low-medium qualifies at 40% to 80% of the FHA metro area sales price; medium-high goes from that 80% mark to 125% of the Fannie and Freddie maximum loan limit for the metro; and high comprises sales that exceeds the 125% mark. For example, in Phoenix the Fannie or Freddie loan maximum is $548,000. So the "high" tier starts at $685,000.
The May increases for all four price tiers are the highest monthly figures ever recorded in the AEI's nine years of data. But for Pinto, the most astounding numbers are the 25% increases in both medium-high and high––not just because they're off the charts, but because they're so unusual versus the other categories. "During boom markets, it's the low end that usually outperforms by far," says Pinto. "But the the extraordinary performance of expensive homes speaks to the migration of high-earners who can now take those earnings and winnings from selling an expensive home in a city where housing is incredibly expensive and move to places where housing is much cheaper," he says. (For May, low and low-medium respectively registered 14% and 15% year over year gains.)
Pinto can also project what HPAs on closed loans will look like in July and August by analyzing "rate lock" numbers collected from originators covering about one-half the market. Based on last year's rate-locks, he is penciling in a year-over-year increase of 17% to 18% nationally, two to three percentage points above May's record. Those prices are drawn from signed contracts of sale that are reported when the buyer secures a home loan. The houses actually change hands around 45 days later after Pinto amasses the "rate-lock" data. So his numbers are the best advance look available into where the market is heading.
Pinto points out that the U.S. is the tale of two markets. In his words, it's the east and west coast, and the everywhere else. "Twenty-five percent of Americans live in high-priced coastal metros such as Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Boston," Pinto observes. "In those metros, home prices average almost seven times area median incomes." But seventy-five percent of the U.S. population resides in the "everywhere else" geographies, mostly interior metros in the sun and rust belts. "In this 'rest of the country,' home prices are 3.5 times median incomes, so housing is half as pricey as on the coasts," he says. "That opens a high-pressure dynamic that's pushing people to move to where housing is more plentiful and a lot cheaper."
For Pinto, the pandemic marked a tectonic shift. "For decades, the market was distorted by the 'not in my backyard' or NIMBY movement that started in California in the 1950s, and then spread to the other coastal cities." The NIMBY shift imposed tight zoning laws and high costs that severely restricted new building, forcing families in Los Angeles or Seattle to pay ever higher prices for a relatively small, aging pool of homes. At the same time, metros such as Raleigh, Phoenix, Atlanta and Dallas welcomed a wealth of new subdivisions that made their homes great buys in comparison.
But until the virus transformed America's lifestyle, it was difficult to capitalize on the huge differences in price between the same sized house, on a similar lot, in San Jose versus Phoenix. "If your office was in San Jose, you had to work in San Jose," says Pinto. But the new work-from-home economy freed, say, a software engineer to sell in San Jose, keep the West Coast paycheck, buy a much roomier home, and still bank cash. "Phoenix is literally changing into a satellite office suburb for San Jose," says Pinto. He cites an example gleaned from data on the two markets. A marketing executive or consultant in San Jose who sells their home for $1 million can buy an abode in Phoenix for half the price that's 28% larger and set on a lot that's more than one-third bigger.
It's no surprise that the southern tier running from Florida to California's Inland Empire garnered the largest increases. Year over year, Salt Lake City gained 17%, Riverside-San Bernardino 18%, Sarasota 19%, while Raleigh and Austin waxed 21% and 22%. The champ: Phoenix, where sellers are now pocketing 25% more for the same houses as in May of 2020.
Another beneficiary: Industrial cities that have seen little population growth recent decades, leaving homes extremely affordable. Now, those metros are flourishing, too. In May, Minneapolis registered year-over-year increase of 12%, while Pittsburgh and Columbus jumped 15% and 16% respectively.
You might think that single-family housing in the super-pricey East and West Coasts is taking a hit from the exodus. But that's not happening. "The reason is that cities like L.A., San Francisco and Seattle have big reservoirs or renters who now want to house," says Pinto. In other words, it's not just about going from expensive to bargain cities. An equally strong trend is the flow from downtown rentals to roomy homes far out of town, where a couple can work from home offices and play badminton in the back yard. "California has the lowest home ownership rate in the nation," says Pinto. "But now, people are moving from apartments where they're paying $5,000 a month across from office towers where they work, and buying homes 30 miles outside of town."
How long can these outsized increases go on? In most boom markets, Pinto in the past has correctly predicted that high prices will trigger lots of building, slowing the rate of price appreciation. In other words, the solution to high prices is high prices, at least in the sunbelt cities where new construction is plentiful. Pinto says that these double digit increases can't continue, because they'd soon make housing unaffordable for most Americans, even if low interest rates persist. But he does believe that we could see appreciation of 10% for all of 2021, easing to a still healthy 5-6% in 2022 and 2023. "It's because the gap in prices between the coastal markets and the 'everywhere else' markets is so huge," he says. "As the movement of people to high-priced to bargain cities continues, prices in the bargain cities could keep appreciating fast, and still remain affordable for the folks with high incomes coming from the coasts."
It's possible that the most positive shock delivered by the pandemic is breaking NIMBY's hold, and unshackling Americans to go where the roomy kitchens, three-bedrooms and backyards that remain the American dream are still affordable.