比特幣是特斯拉藏的“手榴彈”嗎？
Shawn Tully
2021-05-31
事情的開始看起來就像是一場魯莽的賭注，隨著加密貨幣的走勢逐漸瘋狂，情況看起來也越來越離譜。
今年年初，埃隆?馬斯克用特斯拉的15億美元現金購買比特幣，引發各界關注。隨著加密貨幣比特幣的價格飛漲，特斯拉的持幣價值比買入時上漲超過13億美元，盡管最近有所回落，特斯拉的賬面利潤仍然不錯，只是獲利收窄。
不過，財經媒體和華爾街分析師都沒有注意到某些不利因素。特斯拉對比特幣采取了特殊的會計處理，雖然投資總體盈利，但特斯拉在二季度將出現“減值”損失。如果比特幣的價格維持在當前的38000美元左右，沖擊就不會很大。但如果想抵消減值，特斯拉就要出售不少比特幣，而這可能會沖擊比特幣市場。如果比特幣觸及最近低點，遠低于3萬美元，特斯拉就會遭受巨大損失，生產和銷售電動汽車幾個季度的利潤將一筆抹去。
最重要的是，截至6月末財季的減值將提醒投資者，馬斯克的買入行為相當于為波動極大的資產廣為宣傳，從而提升了風險，僅在5月中下旬的8天里，比特幣從高點到低點的振幅就達10%，乃至更高。
之前人們普遍認為：“嘿，比特幣市場看起來很瘋狂，但這家伙是個天才——特斯拉在比特幣上就賺了幾十億美元！”而現在的輿論則變成了“沒有人知道比特幣市場怎么發展，如果崩潰，就相當于在特斯拉藏了顆手榴彈。”
比特幣對特斯拉造成的風險在華爾街引起了恐慌。
“很多投資者寧愿馬斯克從未碰過比特幣。”Wedbush Securities的分析師丹尼爾?艾夫斯表示。“重點應該放在交貨、全球電動汽車浪潮以及解決芯片短缺問題。然而現在人們太關注比特幣了。”他補充說，特別令人沮喪的是，馬斯克最近對幾個月前還曾經大肆贊揚的比特幣態度大扭轉，還沖擊了特斯拉股價。
“就像點火自家房子。”他說，“比特幣事件給特斯拉的故事蒙上了陰翳。而且全是自找麻煩。”
讓我們來看看，為什么二季度比特幣的會計規則將導致特斯拉虧損，以及如果比特幣的價格大幅下滑，損失將有多慘重。
特斯拉在比特幣上收益巨大
特斯拉在2月8日公布的2020年度報告（10K）中，首次宣布斥資15億美元投資比特幣。直到一季度10Q報告提供細節，投資者才能夠算出公司購買了多少比特幣、買入平均價格以及持有收益。
10Q報告稱，截至3月31日，特斯拉持有比特幣價值24.8億美元。當天紐約證券交易所的收盤價為58919美元，因此可以估計特斯拉持有約4.21萬枚比特幣。
從2月初到3月底，特斯拉賣出了10%，價值2.68億美元。之前其成本為1.4億美元，因此收益為1.28億美元。（通過計算可知，最多的時候特斯拉持有約4.68萬枚比特幣。）
看起來，特斯拉賬面上的比特幣價值加上出售所得總計27.48億美元（24.8億美元加上2.58億美元）。眾所周知，買入時花了15億美元，3月31日特斯拉的已實現和未實現收益超過12億美元，也就是說11個星期里的投資收益超過80%。特斯拉買入比特幣均價為3.2萬美元，到一季度末價格近5.9萬美元。
特斯拉的煩心事：比特幣特殊會計規則
剛開始，投身比特幣看起來像大獲成功，當季不包括向競爭對手出售碳積分，特斯拉稅前利潤僅1500萬美元。從這個角度看，買賣比特幣拉升了公司業績。
但10Q報告提到了很少有人注意的內容，預示著二季度的情況，以及隨后幾個季度可能出現更大的問題。盡管特斯拉出售10%的比特幣賺取了巨額利潤，但還是被迫在稅前利潤里計入2700萬美元“減值”。(凈收益從1.28億美元減至1.01億美元。）
在此簡單介紹下造成減值，且未來幾個季度將形成更多虧損的會計規則。根據美國財務會計準則委員會的分類，加密貨幣屬于“期限不確定的無形資產”。不過會計專家告訴《財富》雜志，公司在資產負債表中如何處理加密資產有很大的自由度。一種選擇是將比特幣的買入價格或“賬面價值”與交易點或季度末“公允市場價值”比較。
如果6月30日的比特幣價格低于特斯拉賬面上的任何一部分幣的買入價，就要計入“減值”或者減記，減值金額等于“賬面價值”和“公允市場價值”之差，也就是買入價減去季度末市場價。
特斯拉顯然并未采取“季度末比較”方法，而是隨時減值法，季度中只要比特幣的市場價低于持有任何一部分幣的買入價時就要計減值。公司收集減值數據，季度末收集計入“重組”項。
換言之，如果特斯拉在2月初以3.5萬美元買入一些比特幣，大幅上漲之后在5月19日跌至3.1萬美元（實際上就是如此），每一枚比特幣就都要計4000美元減值。如果比特幣反彈回到3.1萬美元以上，特斯拉就不能重新計算幣值并消除減值。減值將一直存在。事實上，即使整個投資組合的市場價格遠遠高于特斯拉的買入價，且持續一段時間，也無法算作盈利。
也就是說，當中只存在兩種情況：如果持有比特幣有收益，就要按照買入成本計算；如果出現減值，就按照最新更低的“賬面價值”計算。
只有特斯拉出售比特幣時，才能夠計入利潤。收益相當于比特幣的賬面價值和更高的賣出價的差額。簡單地說，不管是一枚或很多枚，只要加密貨幣交易所里的比特幣市價低于特斯拉買入價，特斯拉就要對相應的比特幣計虧損（或減值）。市價高于賬面價值時，則只能通過賣出換成現金獲取收益。
一季度，特斯拉在買入少部分比特幣之后跌破了原始成本，引發2700萬美元減值。但由于大部分投資組合價格飆升，特斯拉以遠高于買入價的價格出售了10%，從而獲得了巨大收益。
特斯拉的做法穩健也極保守
看起來，特斯拉有兩條路可以選，都能夠滿足美國財務會計準則委員會的無形資產規定。如之前提到，一種方法是只有當買入比特幣的平均成本在季度末低于市場價格時，才出現賬面損失；第二種方法則是賬面上任何一批買入價超過交易所季度收盤價就進行減值。
“特斯拉之所以能夠選擇，主要因為美國財務會計準則委員會并未就比特幣發布指導意見。”賓夕法尼亞州立大學的會計學教授埃德?凱茨表示。
Bastiat Capital的首席會計專家阿爾伯特?邁耶指出，特斯拉的做法相當謹慎，遵循了美國財務會計準則委員會的兩條原則，分別為“及時性”和“個別計價”。
特斯拉計算減值時根據當前價格而不是季度末價格，體現了“及時性”。每當有比特幣市場價低于買入價時就對其計算減記，則體現了“個別計價”。邁耶說：“個別計價和即時確認減值都非常謹慎，我認為沒有問題。”
不過值得注意的是，如果特斯拉季度末再進行減值測試，一季度就不會出現2700萬美元損失，二季度也有機會避免減記。然而從實際情況來看，特斯拉記賬非常審慎，因而可以提醒人們關注投資比特幣的危險。
這一次，損失可能更嚴重
5月中旬，馬斯克在推特上宣布，由于比特幣的碳足跡令人不安，特斯拉不再接受比特幣作為購買電動汽車的付款方式。此言一出，震驚市場。隨之市場越發擔心他完全放棄比特幣，后來馬斯克宣布，特斯拉不打算出售持有的比特幣。
所以可以假設，目前特斯拉仍然持有買入時的90%，即4.21萬枚比特幣。
然而，特斯拉持有的比特幣價值遠遠低于幾周前。今年4月中旬，比特幣創下64863美元的歷史新高。當時，特斯拉持幣的市值高達27.3億美元，未實現和已實現的收益總額約為13.6億美元，比一季度末增加1.5億美元。
截至5月25日午后，比特幣已經下跌41%至3.8萬美元，特斯拉曾經高達13.6億美元的收益減至3.78億美元左右。
至于一季度，特斯拉透露剩余的4.21萬枚比特幣的“賬面價值”為13.3億美元。意味著平均每一枚的“基礎價”為3.16萬美元，不過在計算減值損失時平均價并不重要，也不能算特斯拉總體“盈利”。關鍵是當季交易所的最低價位。特斯拉買入時只要高于該價，就都必須按照最低價計算減值。減值金額為低價與特斯拉買入價之間的差額。
到目前為止，二季度的比特幣最低價格出現在5月19日，跌至30682美元。當日，中國政府禁止銀行和支付提供商接受加密貨幣。然而麻煩也出現了。我們并不知道特斯拉在1月1日至2月8日期間買入比特幣時到底價位多少。如果平均價為3.16萬美元，有一部分買入價肯定高于30682美元。而在特斯拉買入期間，只有十幾天低于該價。
為了估算將來減值規模，這里可以做個簡單的假設，即特斯拉買入的比特幣有一半高于平均價3.16萬美元，另一半價格低于該數字。假設特斯拉花2.95萬美元買了2.15萬個“便宜幣”，另外2.15萬個的買入價為3.37萬美元（算下來平均價為3.16萬美元）。
在這種情況下，特斯拉平均每枚比特幣減值約3018美元（每枚33700美元減去當季低點30682美元）。二季度減值費用將達到6500萬美元。
這聽起來沒有那么嚴重。但哪怕僅從會計角度看，特斯拉之前吹噓的比特幣投資居然賠錢，也會非常尷尬。馬斯克可能為避免虧損，打破承諾出售比特幣填上窟窿。問題是，價格已經下跌太多，想填補6500萬美元的缺口就得大量拋售。據我估計，如果價格保持在當前38000美元的水平，特斯拉需要拋售10000枚，也就是持有比特幣的四分之一才可以打平。
由于馬斯克在比特幣圈中是意見領袖，大規模拋售可能引發一眾粉絲的恐慌，從而進一步推動比特幣跳水。想象一下，價格回到12月初的2.5萬美元，特斯拉的損失將達2.78億美元。如果跌到2萬美元呢？屆時特斯拉一度“盈利”13億美元的投資將虧損4.84億美元。
請記住，過去四個季度扣除碳積分銷售收入，特斯拉稅前虧損達1.27億美元，馬斯克也承認，碳積分銷售收入將迅速減少。如果比特幣出現巨額虧損，就可能將2021年接下來甚至更長時間里銷售汽車和電池的利潤全部抹去。
然而，真正的問題是，比特幣的價格走勢向來跌宕起伏而且極難判斷，特斯拉已然難測的未來收益也愈加存疑。如今特斯拉最不缺的就是不確定性，馬斯克選擇下注當今最變化多端的資產，只能在變數上平添變數。
之前馬斯克用特斯拉股東的15億美元玩比特幣，剛開始可以說非常幸運。現在，他的運氣則變得越來越差。誰知道下個月他手里的籌碼還會不會比開始時多？
股東們已經不敢問出口，畢竟自從1月特斯拉股價見頂以來，股東的持股金額已經縮水了三分之一。（財富中文網）
譯者：夏林
事情的開始看起來就像是一場魯莽的賭注，隨著加密貨幣的走勢逐漸瘋狂，情況看起來也越來越離譜。
今年年初，埃隆?馬斯克用特斯拉的15億美元現金購買比特幣，引發各界關注。隨著加密貨幣比特幣的價格飛漲，特斯拉的持幣價值比買入時上漲超過13億美元，盡管最近有所回落，特斯拉的賬面利潤仍然不錯，只是獲利收窄。
不過，財經媒體和華爾街分析師都沒有注意到某些不利因素。特斯拉對比特幣采取了特殊的會計處理，雖然投資總體盈利，但特斯拉在二季度將出現“減值”損失。如果比特幣的價格維持在當前的38000美元左右，沖擊就不會很大。但如果想抵消減值，特斯拉就要出售不少比特幣，而這可能會沖擊比特幣市場。如果比特幣觸及最近低點，遠低于3萬美元，特斯拉就會遭受巨大損失，生產和銷售電動汽車幾個季度的利潤將一筆抹去。
最重要的是，截至6月末財季的減值將提醒投資者，馬斯克的買入行為相當于為波動極大的資產廣為宣傳，從而提升了風險，僅在5月中下旬的8天里，比特幣從高點到低點的振幅就達10%，乃至更高。
之前人們普遍認為：“嘿，比特幣市場看起來很瘋狂，但這家伙是個天才——特斯拉在比特幣上就賺了幾十億美元！”而現在的輿論則變成了“沒有人知道比特幣市場怎么發展，如果崩潰，就相當于在特斯拉藏了顆手榴彈。”
比特幣對特斯拉造成的風險在華爾街引起了恐慌。
“很多投資者寧愿馬斯克從未碰過比特幣。”Wedbush Securities的分析師丹尼爾?艾夫斯表示。“重點應該放在交貨、全球電動汽車浪潮以及解決芯片短缺問題。然而現在人們太關注比特幣了。”他補充說，特別令人沮喪的是，馬斯克最近對幾個月前還曾經大肆贊揚的比特幣態度大扭轉，還沖擊了特斯拉股價。
“就像點火自家房子。”他說，“比特幣事件給特斯拉的故事蒙上了陰翳。而且全是自找麻煩。”
讓我們來看看，為什么二季度比特幣的會計規則將導致特斯拉虧損，以及如果比特幣的價格大幅下滑，損失將有多慘重。
特斯拉在比特幣上收益巨大
特斯拉在2月8日公布的2020年度報告（10K）中，首次宣布斥資15億美元投資比特幣。直到一季度10Q報告提供細節，投資者才能夠算出公司購買了多少比特幣、買入平均價格以及持有收益。
10Q報告稱，截至3月31日，特斯拉持有比特幣價值24.8億美元。當天紐約證券交易所的收盤價為58919美元，因此可以估計特斯拉持有約4.21萬枚比特幣。
從2月初到3月底，特斯拉賣出了10%，價值2.68億美元。之前其成本為1.4億美元，因此收益為1.28億美元。（通過計算可知，最多的時候特斯拉持有約4.68萬枚比特幣。）
看起來，特斯拉賬面上的比特幣價值加上出售所得總計27.48億美元（24.8億美元加上2.58億美元）。眾所周知，買入時花了15億美元，3月31日特斯拉的已實現和未實現收益超過12億美元，也就是說11個星期里的投資收益超過80%。特斯拉買入比特幣均價為3.2萬美元，到一季度末價格近5.9萬美元。
特斯拉的煩心事：比特幣特殊會計規則
剛開始，投身比特幣看起來像大獲成功，當季不包括向競爭對手出售碳積分，特斯拉稅前利潤僅1500萬美元。從這個角度看，買賣比特幣拉升了公司業績。
但10Q報告提到了很少有人注意的內容，預示著二季度的情況，以及隨后幾個季度可能出現更大的問題。盡管特斯拉出售10%的比特幣賺取了巨額利潤，但還是被迫在稅前利潤里計入2700萬美元“減值”。(凈收益從1.28億美元減至1.01億美元。）
在此簡單介紹下造成減值，且未來幾個季度將形成更多虧損的會計規則。根據美國財務會計準則委員會的分類，加密貨幣屬于“期限不確定的無形資產”。不過會計專家告訴《財富》雜志，公司在資產負債表中如何處理加密資產有很大的自由度。一種選擇是將比特幣的買入價格或“賬面價值”與交易點或季度末“公允市場價值”比較。
如果6月30日的比特幣價格低于特斯拉賬面上的任何一部分幣的買入價，就要計入“減值”或者減記，減值金額等于“賬面價值”和“公允市場價值”之差，也就是買入價減去季度末市場價。
特斯拉顯然并未采取“季度末比較”方法，而是隨時減值法，季度中只要比特幣的市場價低于持有任何一部分幣的買入價時就要計減值。公司收集減值數據，季度末收集計入“重組”項。
換言之，如果特斯拉在2月初以3.5萬美元買入一些比特幣，大幅上漲之后在5月19日跌至3.1萬美元（實際上就是如此），每一枚比特幣就都要計4000美元減值。如果比特幣反彈回到3.1萬美元以上，特斯拉就不能重新計算幣值并消除減值。減值將一直存在。事實上，即使整個投資組合的市場價格遠遠高于特斯拉的買入價，且持續一段時間，也無法算作盈利。
也就是說，當中只存在兩種情況：如果持有比特幣有收益，就要按照買入成本計算；如果出現減值，就按照最新更低的“賬面價值”計算。
只有特斯拉出售比特幣時，才能夠計入利潤。收益相當于比特幣的賬面價值和更高的賣出價的差額。簡單地說，不管是一枚或很多枚，只要加密貨幣交易所里的比特幣市價低于特斯拉買入價，特斯拉就要對相應的比特幣計虧損（或減值）。市價高于賬面價值時，則只能通過賣出換成現金獲取收益。
一季度，特斯拉在買入少部分比特幣之后跌破了原始成本，引發2700萬美元減值。但由于大部分投資組合價格飆升，特斯拉以遠高于買入價的價格出售了10%，從而獲得了巨大收益。
特斯拉的做法穩健也極保守
看起來，特斯拉有兩條路可以選，都能夠滿足美國財務會計準則委員會的無形資產規定。如之前提到，一種方法是只有當買入比特幣的平均成本在季度末低于市場價格時，才出現賬面損失；第二種方法則是賬面上任何一批買入價超過交易所季度收盤價就進行減值。
“特斯拉之所以能夠選擇，主要因為美國財務會計準則委員會并未就比特幣發布指導意見。”賓夕法尼亞州立大學的會計學教授埃德?凱茨表示。
Bastiat Capital的首席會計專家阿爾伯特?邁耶指出，特斯拉的做法相當謹慎，遵循了美國財務會計準則委員會的兩條原則，分別為“及時性”和“個別計價”。
特斯拉計算減值時根據當前價格而不是季度末價格，體現了“及時性”。每當有比特幣市場價低于買入價時就對其計算減記，則體現了“個別計價”。邁耶說：“個別計價和即時確認減值都非常謹慎，我認為沒有問題。”
不過值得注意的是，如果特斯拉季度末再進行減值測試，一季度就不會出現2700萬美元損失，二季度也有機會避免減記。然而從實際情況來看，特斯拉記賬非常審慎，因而可以提醒人們關注投資比特幣的危險。
這一次，損失可能更嚴重
5月中旬，馬斯克在推特上宣布，由于比特幣的碳足跡令人不安，特斯拉不再接受比特幣作為購買電動汽車的付款方式。此言一出，震驚市場。隨之市場越發擔心他完全放棄比特幣，后來馬斯克宣布，特斯拉不打算出售持有的比特幣。
所以可以假設，目前特斯拉仍然持有買入時的90%，即4.21萬枚比特幣。
然而，特斯拉持有的比特幣價值遠遠低于幾周前。今年4月中旬，比特幣創下64863美元的歷史新高。當時，特斯拉持幣的市值高達27.3億美元，未實現和已實現的收益總額約為13.6億美元，比一季度末增加1.5億美元。
截至5月25日午后，比特幣已經下跌41%至3.8萬美元，特斯拉曾經高達13.6億美元的收益減至3.78億美元左右。
至于一季度，特斯拉透露剩余的4.21萬枚比特幣的“賬面價值”為13.3億美元。意味著平均每一枚的“基礎價”為3.16萬美元，不過在計算減值損失時平均價并不重要，也不能算特斯拉總體“盈利”。關鍵是當季交易所的最低價位。特斯拉買入時只要高于該價，就都必須按照最低價計算減值。減值金額為低價與特斯拉買入價之間的差額。
到目前為止，二季度的比特幣最低價格出現在5月19日，跌至30682美元。當日，中國政府禁止銀行和支付提供商接受加密貨幣。然而麻煩也出現了。我們并不知道特斯拉在1月1日至2月8日期間買入比特幣時到底價位多少。如果平均價為3.16萬美元，有一部分買入價肯定高于30682美元。而在特斯拉買入期間，只有十幾天低于該價。
為了估算將來減值規模，這里可以做個簡單的假設，即特斯拉買入的比特幣有一半高于平均價3.16萬美元，另一半價格低于該數字。假設特斯拉花2.95萬美元買了2.15萬個“便宜幣”，另外2.15萬個的買入價為3.37萬美元（算下來平均價為3.16萬美元）。
在這種情況下，特斯拉平均每枚比特幣減值約3018美元（每枚33700美元減去當季低點30682美元）。二季度減值費用將達到6500萬美元。
這聽起來沒有那么嚴重。但哪怕僅從會計角度看，特斯拉之前吹噓的比特幣投資居然賠錢，也會非常尷尬。馬斯克可能為避免虧損，打破承諾出售比特幣填上窟窿。問題是，價格已經下跌太多，想填補6500萬美元的缺口就得大量拋售。據我估計，如果價格保持在當前38000美元的水平，特斯拉需要拋售10000枚，也就是持有比特幣的四分之一才可以打平。
由于馬斯克在比特幣圈中是意見領袖，大規模拋售可能引發一眾粉絲的恐慌，從而進一步推動比特幣跳水。想象一下，價格回到12月初的2.5萬美元，特斯拉的損失將達2.78億美元。如果跌到2萬美元呢？屆時特斯拉一度“盈利”13億美元的投資將虧損4.84億美元。
請記住，過去四個季度扣除碳積分銷售收入，特斯拉稅前虧損達1.27億美元，馬斯克也承認，碳積分銷售收入將迅速減少。如果比特幣出現巨額虧損，就可能將2021年接下來甚至更長時間里銷售汽車和電池的利潤全部抹去。
然而，真正的問題是，比特幣的價格走勢向來跌宕起伏而且極難判斷，特斯拉已然難測的未來收益也愈加存疑。如今特斯拉最不缺的就是不確定性，馬斯克選擇下注當今最變化多端的資產，只能在變數上平添變數。
之前馬斯克用特斯拉股東的15億美元玩比特幣，剛開始可以說非常幸運。現在，他的運氣則變得越來越差。誰知道下個月他手里的籌碼還會不會比開始時多？
股東們已經不敢問出口，畢竟自從1月特斯拉股價見頂以來，股東的持股金額已經縮水了三分之一。（財富中文網）
譯者：夏林
It looked like a reckless bet at the time, and in these days of crypto-madness, it's looking more outrageous by the day. Early this year, Elon Musk famously wagered $1.5 billion in Tesla's corporate cash on Bitcoin. As the signature crypto soared, the value of the EV-maker's holdings swelled by over $1.3 billion more than it paid, and despite the recent slide, Tesla's still sitting on a nice––though shrunken––paper profit.
But here's the downside that's gone mainly unnoticed by the financial media and Wall Street analysts. The special accounting treatment Tesla applies to its Bitcoin holdings will require the manufacturer Tesla to book losses called "impairments" in its second quarter, even though its overall investment is still above water. If Tesla's price holds at its current level of around $38,000, the hit won't be enormous. But to offset the write-downs, Tesla would need to sell a big chunk of the coins left in its coffers, a move that could send Bitcoin swooning. And if Bitcoin falls well below $30,000, a level it recently approached, Tesla will suffer losses big enough to erase several quarters of the profits it garners making and marketing EVs.
Most of all, the impairments in the June quarter will remind investors that Musk made an already risky stock a whole look riskier by taking a flyer on an ultra-volatile asset that's swung by 10% or more from highs to lows on eight days in mid-to-late May alone. The view that, "Hey, this might seem crazy, but the guy's a genius––just look at the billion-plus Tesla's making on Bitcoin!" is giving way to, "Nobody knows where this thing is headed, and if it collapses, Tesla's got a hand grenade buried in its warchest."
The treat posed by Bitcoin is causing consternation on Wall Street. "Many investors never wanted Musk to go down the Bitcoin path," says Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. "The focus should be on its progress in making deliveries, the global EV tidal wave, and getting through the chip shortage. Instead, too much attention's going to the Bitcoin piece." It's especially frustrating, he adds, that Musk's recently soured on the crypto that months before, he was lavishly praising, hammering the value of Tesla's holdings. "It was like burning down your own house," he says. "The Bitcoin piece has created a dark cloud over the whole story. And the damage is all self-inflicted."
Let's examine how the accounting rules governing Bitcoin will create losses for Tesla in Q2, and how deep those losses will go if the king of cryptos suffers a steep slide from here.
Early on, Tesla made huge paper gains on its Bitcoin wager
Tesla first unveiled its $1.5 billion Bitcoin investment in its 10K, published on February 8. But it wasn't until details emerged in its 10Q for the first quarter that investors could estimate how many coins it bought, the average price paid, and the gains on its holdings. The 10Q stated that as of March 31, Tesla owned $2.48 billion in Bitcoin. Since the price at the NYSE close that day was $58,919, we can estimate that its treasury held around 42,100 coins. Between early February and the end of March, Tesla sold 10% of its coins for $268 million. It had bought those batches for $140 million; hence, it pocketed a $128 million gain. (The math implies that at the peak, Tesla held some 46,800 coins.)
It appeared that the value of the Bitcoin still on Tesla's books, plus what it reaped on the sale, totaled $2.748 ($2.48 billion plus $258 million). Since its cost of acquiring all those coins was the celebrated $1.50 billion, Tesla on March 31 was triumphantly sitting on total realized and unrealized gains exceeding $1.2 billion, or more than 80% on its investment, all captured in eleven weeks. The coins it had purchased at an average price of $32,000 were by the the end of Q1 worth almost $59,000.
Tesla headache: the special accounting treatment for cryptocurrencies
At that point, the Bitcoin gambit looked like a big winner in a quarter where Tesla booked a pre-tax profit of just $15 million, excluding sales of regulatory credits to rivals. By that measure, it was only the Bitcoin sale that turned its results positive. But the 10Q contained a little-noticed item that foreshadows what's to come in Q2, and potentially bigger problems in subsequent quarters. Even though Tesla sold 10% of its coins for a huge profit, it was still obliged to book an "impairment" charge to pre-tax earnings of $27 million. (That write-down reduced its net gain from $128 million to $101 million.)
Here's a summary of the accounting rules that created the impairment, and will trigger more in reported losses in future quarters. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) classifies cryptocurrencies as "indefinite-lived intangible assets." But accounting experts tell Fortune that the standards allow companies wide latitude in how they choose to treat crypto assets on their balance sheets. One option is to compare the original purchase price, or "carrying value" of Bitcoin, say, to where it's trading, or its "fair market value" at the end of each quarter. Then, if Bitcoin's price on June 30 is below what Tesla paid for any of the tranches on its books, it would take an "impairment," or write-down equaling the difference between the "carrying value" and "fair market value–-the price it paid minus the lower price where it trades at the close of the quarter.
But Tesla apparently didn't adopt that "end of quarter" approach. Instead, it immediately takes an impairment anytime during the quarter that Bitcoin's market price falls below what it paid for any tranche of Bitcoin in its treasury. It collects and reports the total of those impairments in the "restructuring" category at the close of the quarter.
In other words, if Tesla bought a bunch of Bitcoin in early February at $35,000 and after a big jump, the price falls to $31,000 on May 19 (as actually occurred) it's obliged to take a $4,000 impairment on every one of those coins. But if Bitcoin vaults back above $31,000, Tesla doesn't get to mark the coins back up and eliminate the write-down. Those impairments are forever. In fact, even if market prices across the whole portfolio rise far above what Tesla paid, and that happened for awhile, it can't book a gain. Instead, it has to keep valuing the coins at their original cost so long as they're in the black, and at their new, reduced "carrying value" if they're impaired.
It's only when Tesla sells that it can register a profit. That gain amounts to the difference between the carrying value of coins and the hopefully higher numbers they fetch. Put simply, when prices on the crypto exchanges fall below what Tesla paid for a coin or bunch of coins, it posts a loss (or impairment) on that coin or batch. But when prices rise above those carrying values, it can only notch a gain by trading the coins for cash. In Q1, a small portion of what Tesla bought subsequently dropped below the coins' original cost, triggering the $27 million impairment. But since most of its portfolio soared in price, Tesla was able to garner a big gain by unloading 10% of its holdings at much more than it paid.
Tesla's approach is sound and ultra-conservative
It appears that Tesla could follow two different paths, and still satisfy FASB's guidelines for intangibles. As stated, one choice would be booking losses only when the average cost of its Bitcoin purchases fall below the market price at the end of the quarter; the second would consist of taking impairments on any individual batch on its books bought for more than the close-of-quarter prices on the exchanges. "The reason Tesla has all these options is that FASB has issued no guidance for Bitcoin," says Ed Ketz, an accounting professor at Penn State University.
Tesla is taking a cautious stance by following two FASB tenets, says Albert Meyer, a leading accounting expert at Bastiat Capital, "timeliness" and "specific identification." It achieves "timeliness" by booking the impairments as soon as they occur, based on current quotes, rather than based on prices at the end of the quarter. It practices "specific identification" by basing each write-down on the individual batches whose purchase prices fall below market prices. "The specific identification approach and immediacy of recognizing an impairment are prudent," says Meyer. "I have no problem with it."
It's noteworthy that if Tesla were testing for impairments at the end of each quarter, it wouldn't have shouldered that $27 million loss in Q1, and might avoid write-down altogether in Q2. Instead, its judicious bookkeeping will train a spotlight on the dangers of its Bitcoin adventure.
This time, the impairments are likely to be bigger
In mid-May, Musk shocked the markets by tweeting that due to Bitcoin's troubling carbon footprint, Tesla would no longer accept coins as payment for its EVs. But amid rising fears he'd bail on Bitcoin entirely, Musk later declared the Tesla didn't plan to sell any of the coins still in its treasury. So we can assume that as of today, it still holds 90% of its original purchases, or 42,100 Bitcoin.
Those coins, however, are worth far less than just a few weeks ago. In mid-April, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $64,863. At that point, Tesla's trove boasted a market value of $2.73 billion, putting its total unrealized and realized gains around $1.36 billion, $150 million more than at the end of Q1. Since then, Bitcoin has sunk by 41% to $38,000 as of mid-afternoon on May 25. Tesla one-time $1.36 billion windfall has shrunk to around $378 million. ?
For Q1, Tesla revealed that its "carrying value" for those remaining 42,100 Bitcoin is $1.330 billion. That means the average "basis" for the coins still on its books is $31,600. But for calculating impairments, the average doesn't matter, nor does it count that Tesla's "made money" overall. Once again, the key number is the lowest quote posted on the exchanges during the current quarter. Any coins that Tesla bought above that level must be marked down to that bottom price. The difference between the low point and the higher prices Tesla paid for any coin or bucket of coins constitutes the impairment.
Thus far in Q2, Bitcoin's basement price came on May 19 when the crypto slumped to $30,682. That's the day the Chinese government barred banks and payments providers from accepting cryptocurrencies. Here's where it gets tricky. We don't know how much Tesla originally paid for different tranches of Bitcoin, all acquired between January 1 and February 8. But to arrive at an average of $31,600 across all purchases, it must have acquired bushels at over $30,682. During the span when it was buying, prices fell below that level on only a dozen days.
To gauge the possible size of the looming charge, I'll make the simple assumption that Tesla bought half the coins still on its books at more than its average acquisition price of $31,600, and half at less than that number. Let's posit that it paid $29,500 for the "bargain" 21,500 coins, and $33,700 for the other 21,500 (that's an average price of $31,600).
In that case, Tesla faces in impairment of approximately $3,018 per coin (the $33,700 it paid per coin minus the quarter's low point of $30,682). The Q2 charge would come to $65 million.
Doesn't sound too bad. But just the idea that for accounting purposes, Tesla lost money on its vaunted Bitcoin wager would be highly embarrassing. Musk might feel obligated to break his pledge and offset the charge by selling Bitcoin that's harboring gains. The rub is that prices have fallen so far that he'd have to dump a lot of it to fill the $65 million hole. By my estimate, if prices remain at today's $38,000 level, Tesla would need to offload 10,000 coins, a quarter of its holdings, to get square.
Since Musk is Bitcoin's chief influencer, a sale that size could spook its fans and send their cherished token diving once again. Or imagine that prices return to their early December level of $25,000. Tesla would then suffer $278 million in impairments. Or how about $20,000? At that level, Tesla would be taking a $484 million loss on a portfolio that was once $1.3 billion "in the money."
Keep in mind that in the past four quarters, Tesla posted a pre-tax deficit of $127 million after subtracting its revenues from the sale of regulatory credits, a fount that Musk acknowledges will rapidly decline. A big loss on Bitcoin could wipe out, or seriously dent, its profits from selling cars and batteries, if any, for the rest of 2021 or even longer.
The real problem is that Bitcoin's lurching, totally unforeseeable trajectory makes Tesla's already hard-to-predict future earnings even foggier. The last thing Tesla needs is uncertainty, and by embracing what may be the most mercurial major asset class of modern times, Musk's doubled down on risk. Musk got stupendously lucky playing in the Bitcoin casino with $1.5 billion staked by Tesla's shareholders. Now, his luck is fading. Who knows if next month he'll still have more chips than when he started? That's just the kind of question his shareholders, who've seen one-third of their holdings vanish since Tesla's shares peaked January, don't want to be asking.
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