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疫情、創(chuàng)始人和黑客多面夾擊,易捷航空要如何走出泥潭?

Jeremy Kahn
2021-05-26

易捷航空與其他廉價(jià)航空公司的不同之處在于,它一直在歐洲頂級機(jī)場運(yùn)營。但易捷航空努力從新冠疫情中恢復(fù)之際,該戰(zhàn)略也造成了更高的成本負(fù)擔(dān)。

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2020年10月31日,柏林勃蘭登堡機(jī)場(Berlin Brandenburg Airport)正式開放期間,停機(jī)坪上的易捷航空飛機(jī)。圖片來源:Hannibal Hanschke—Pool/AFP via Getty Images

歐洲最大廉價(jià)航空公司之一易捷航空(EasyJet)的首席執(zhí)行官約翰·隆格倫是Flightradar24的粉絲。網(wǎng)站上有世界地圖,根據(jù)雷達(dá)和應(yīng)答器數(shù)據(jù),每架飛行中的飛機(jī)都會顯示成圖標(biāo)。將鼠標(biāo)移到圖標(biāo)上就能夠看到飛機(jī)型號,屬于哪家航空公司,往返何地,甚至飛行高度和速度。

隆格倫說,之所以喜歡Flightradar24,是因?yàn)楹娇展局荒苷\實(shí)。如果乘客可以清楚地看到飛機(jī)還沒有從上一個(gè)目的地起飛,航空公司就不能采用傳統(tǒng)做法,像擠牙膏似的一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)通知壞消息,逐漸宣布延誤時(shí)間拖長。還有一個(gè)原因是,易捷航空能夠輕松地收集競爭對手航空公司的情報(bào)。

盡管如此,4月下旬的一個(gè)星期二早上,隆格倫看到Flightradar24之后肯定很不滿意。因?yàn)榭罩兄挥袃杉芤捉莺娇盏娘w機(jī),一架從倫敦蓋特威克機(jī)場(London’s Gatwick Airport)飛往法國里昂,另一架從貝爾法斯特飛往英吉利海峽的澤西島。通常情況下空中飛機(jī)都接近100架。但是自從2020年3月23日以來,易捷航空再也沒有正常過。當(dāng)日由于新冠病毒日益蔓延,英國政府首次建議海外的英國人在旅行限制措施實(shí)施前盡快歸國。

如今已經(jīng)過去了一年多,新冠疫情仍在肆虐,包括英國在內(nèi)的很多國家都在收緊旅行限制,防止變異病毒傳入,航空業(yè)對市場早日恢復(fù)的盼望落空,比易捷航空的總部盧頓機(jī)場(Luton Airport)最后進(jìn)場的空客(Airbus)A320降落得還快。雖然歐洲對休閑旅游的樂觀情緒重新燃起,近日英國也宣布重啟少數(shù)幾個(gè)目的地的國際旅行,但由于夏季重現(xiàn)旅行旺季的可能性不大,易捷航空面臨的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然巨大。

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2020年10月,柏林,首席執(zhí)行官約翰·隆格倫站在易捷航空的空客A320飛機(jī)前。圖片來源:Christoph Soeder—Picture Alliance via Getty Images

總體而言,航空公司已經(jīng)走出史上最慘的一年。根據(jù)國際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(International Air Transport Association)的數(shù)據(jù),受新冠疫情影響,2020年航空業(yè)共虧損1180億美元。隨著疫苗在全球各地推廣,今年預(yù)計(jì)航空公司損失將達(dá)到約380億美元。但新出現(xiàn)的傳染性更強(qiáng)而且有可能耐疫苗的變異病毒激增,導(dǎo)致各種預(yù)測存疑。

在疫情之前,易捷航空的業(yè)績比多家航空公司都好,盈利能力強(qiáng)、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表強(qiáng)勁、債務(wù)水平相對較低。作為主營歐洲境內(nèi)短途航班的廉價(jià)航空公司,易捷比長途航空公司調(diào)整航班更靈活,取消航班時(shí)不必?fù)?dān)心失去聯(lián)系或違反聯(lián)盟協(xié)議。不過,易捷還是未能逃過行業(yè)整體衰敗的命運(yùn)。2019年,易捷航空的收入為89億美元,實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤6億美元。2020年銷售額減少超過50%,為42億美元,也是有史以來首次出現(xiàn)年度虧損,稅前虧損近18億美元,相當(dāng)于一架大型噴氣式客機(jī)。與易捷航空類似的歐洲廉價(jià)航空公司瑞安航空(Ryanair)在上周宣布,過去12個(gè)月虧損約10億美元。

危機(jī)之中,54歲的隆格倫也要應(yīng)付競爭對手沒有的麻煩,比如斯特里奧斯·哈吉-約安努一樣不受歡迎的“超重行李”。1995年,哈吉-約安努創(chuàng)建了易捷航空,并以此為基礎(chǔ)打造了品牌帝國,涉及領(lǐng)域從租車和送比薩餅,還擴(kuò)展到大麻業(yè)務(wù)。哈吉-約安努現(xiàn)年54歲,是希臘塞浦路斯人,自2002年卸任董事長以來沒有在航空公司擔(dān)任正式管理職務(wù),但他仍然是公司的大股東。疫情之前他持有公司超過三分之一的股份。他并不是好相處的股東,十年來跟易捷航空的歷任首席執(zhí)行官和董事會爭吵不停,指責(zé)其制定的擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃野心太大、成本也太高,向制造業(yè)巨頭空客買了太多的新飛機(jī)。新冠疫情爆發(fā)時(shí),哈吉-約安努決定再次施壓,說服公司放棄收購,還發(fā)起委托代理戰(zhàn),想罷免董事會成員。

疫情之前,易捷航空公司看起來可能成為歐洲航空旅行最大贏家之一。易捷航空在歐洲跟美國西南航空公司(Southwest Airlines)相當(dāng),主營點(diǎn)對點(diǎn)航線,不像歐洲大型國家航空公司一樣采用昂貴的樞紐輻射模式。與此同時(shí),由于易捷航空經(jīng)常提供優(yōu)惠,而且常駐一線機(jī)場,形象比起瑞安航空和維茲航空(Wizz)等廉價(jià)航空公司略顯高端,所以可以吸引到一些商務(wù)旅客。隆格倫于2017年年末接手公司,計(jì)劃在差異經(jīng)營基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合有望盈利的新業(yè)務(wù),包括度假套餐、向商務(wù)旅客提供更多福利,以及新的忠誠計(jì)劃。

當(dāng)然,疫情中的商務(wù)和休閑旅行均受到重創(chuàng)。隆格倫動用各種財(cái)務(wù)杠桿確保易捷航空安全。如今面臨傳統(tǒng)的夏季旅行旺季,也是易捷航空大量利潤來源,不管是易捷航空還是首席執(zhí)行官都面臨著孤注一擲的時(shí)刻。如果新冠疫情不能迅速消退,休閑旅行就無法像預(yù)期一樣反彈,易捷航空的虧損只會越發(fā)嚴(yán)重,增長計(jì)劃可能無限期擱置。疫情之前一直躋身航空業(yè)前列的易捷航空到底命運(yùn)如何,可能昭示著整個(gè)行業(yè)的未來。如果易捷航空都做不到東山再起,哪家航空公司還能夠做到?

停飛、借錢

“我們要集中精力控制可以控制的事情。降低成本、管理現(xiàn)金消耗、獲取流動性。”隆格倫在去年11月接受美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪時(shí)說。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo),隆格倫采取了比較激進(jìn)的手段。2020年3月底,易捷航空將所有飛機(jī)停飛。6月15日才復(fù)飛。公司宣布計(jì)劃將15000員工裁員30%。截至2021年1月底,約有1400名員工解雇或買斷工齡。

公司與工會談判,為更多的飛行員和機(jī)組人員提供季節(jié)合同,如此一來公司就方便為夏季調(diào)配更多的資源,因?yàn)橄奶斓睦麧櫢唷9局霸谟齻€(gè)外包機(jī)場維修飛機(jī),還跟幾個(gè)機(jī)場的地面勤務(wù)公司重新談判了合同,從而降低成本。

在實(shí)施種種舉措后,截至2020年9月30日期間,易捷航空將一年運(yùn)營成本(不含燃油)降低了31%左右。公司還實(shí)現(xiàn)了一系列小改進(jìn),座位燃油成本提升了2.9%:例如讓飛行員滑行時(shí)只用一臺發(fā)動機(jī),爬升時(shí)盡快到達(dá)巡航高度,因?yàn)楦吆0嗡斤w行更省油。但種種節(jié)約措施并未遏制公司現(xiàn)金流出血,2019年,易捷航空的運(yùn)營收入超過10億美元。2020年則變成虧損逾10億美元。

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2020年6月9日,倫敦蓋特威克機(jī)場停機(jī)坪上停飛的易捷航空飛機(jī)。圖片來源:Photo by Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

有些人懷疑,向來以好人著稱的隆格倫到底會不會大刀闊斧削減成本,這是疫情期間運(yùn)營廉價(jià)航空特別需要的魄力。“廉價(jià)航空公司一定要激進(jìn)、無情且粗暴。”金融研究公司晨星(Morningstar)的航空業(yè)分析師喬基姆·科策說。科策比較了隆格倫和競爭對手、經(jīng)營瑞安航空的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·奧利里,奧利里向來以嚴(yán)酷控制開支且好斗聞名。“他經(jīng)營公司時(shí)盡可能精干,當(dāng)好人可做不到。”科策說。(隆格倫拒絕就本文置評。)

由于易捷航空現(xiàn)金消耗巨大,需要更快籌集更多資金。易捷航空在歐洲很多競爭對手都是載旗航空公司,例如法國航空(Air France)、荷蘭皇家航空(KLM)、漢莎航空(Lufthansa)、北歐航空(SAS)、西班牙航空(Iberia)、葡萄牙航空(TAP Air Portugal)、瑞士航空(Swiss Air)和英國航空(British Airways)等。雖然現(xiàn)在多是私人所有,但其中多家公司曾經(jīng)是國有,而且有些公司里政府仍然持有規(guī)模不小的股份。因此不少公司承載著國家的自豪,工作崗位和養(yǎng)老金支付也能夠獲得幫助。新冠疫情重創(chuàng)航空業(yè)時(shí),多國政府對求助作出了回應(yīng)。2020年3月起,歐洲政府對航空業(yè)援助超過322億美元。據(jù)匯豐銀行(HSBC)的一份報(bào)告分析,援助主要通過撥款、貸款和債轉(zhuǎn)股等方式。“大型航空公司規(guī)模龐大,對很多經(jīng)濟(jì)體非常重要,所以各國政府盡一切可能讓航空公司活下去。”波士頓咨詢公司(Boston Consulting Group)的旅游業(yè)顧問德克-馬爾滕·莫勒納表示。

對于像易捷航空一樣獨(dú)立運(yùn)營的公司來說,尋找資金更為困難,尤其是因?yàn)橛趧傞_始不愿意為航空業(yè)制定救助計(jì)劃。2020年4月,易捷航空通過英國政府為大型雇主提供的新冠肺炎企業(yè)融資工具(COVID Corporate Finance Facility)獲得8.45億美元貸款。易捷航空還充分利用循環(huán)信用額度籌集到5億美元現(xiàn)金。公司還獲得了5.63億美元的兩筆定期貸款,2022年2月到期。

最后,2021年2月,易捷航空也利用了投資者信心突然回升的時(shí)機(jī),當(dāng)時(shí)有消息稱英國疫苗接種順利,夏季末可能重新開放國際旅游。易捷航空發(fā)行7年期債券籌集到15億美元,年利率為1.875%。債券超額認(rèn)購多達(dá)6倍,顯示市場對易捷航空的前景信心十足。據(jù)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Liberum的交通行業(yè)分析師杰拉德·邱分析,之所以認(rèn)購如此火熱,也因?yàn)橐捉莺娇帐悄壳叭騼H有四家仍然被評為投資級別的航空公司之一。(另外三家包括競爭對手瑞安航空和維茲航空,以及美國西南航空,易捷剛開始學(xué)習(xí)的便是美國西南航空的商業(yè)模式。)

與一些低成本航空對手相比,易捷航空直接擁有的飛機(jī)更多。自疫情開始以來,易捷航空賣掉并租賃58架飛機(jī),從中融資21億美元。現(xiàn)在公司直接擁有的飛機(jī)僅占總數(shù)略超過一半,較2019年的70%有所下降,擁有飛機(jī)當(dāng)中10架有6架已經(jīng)貸款抵押。但是,易捷航空對機(jī)隊(duì)的安排很快激發(fā)了與創(chuàng)始人之間長期存在的矛盾。

與創(chuàng)始人斗爭

同時(shí),公司也在處理飛機(jī)籌集現(xiàn)金,將其他飛機(jī)在“埋骨地”長期存放,公司仍然將接收14架全新的空客A320和A321 Neo。因此盡管疫情導(dǎo)致旅行低迷,2020年年末,易捷航空的機(jī)隊(duì)飛機(jī)數(shù)量比年初還有所增加。易捷航空與航空巨頭空客簽訂了長期合同,約定要購買100多架新飛機(jī),2024年之前至少包括55架。合同中都是空客最省油的機(jī)型,可以為易捷航空節(jié)省長期運(yùn)營成本。但合同也規(guī)定,易捷航空在2023年之前支付至少60億美元,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了公司目前的市值。

自2013年易捷航空與空客簽署合作協(xié)議以來,哈吉-約安努一直反對,此次購買合同讓他大為惱火。2020年1月,空客同意推遲與法國、美國和英國的起訴協(xié)議,還要為多年來賄賂航空公司高管以簽署合同的指控支付數(shù)十億美元罰款,哈吉-約安努的憤怒更是加劇。

新冠疫情爆發(fā)時(shí),憤憤不平的哈吉-約安努終于找到迫使易捷航空放棄協(xié)議的機(jī)會。2020年3月,他給易捷航空公司的董事長約翰·巴頓寫信,要求公司以不可抗力為由終止合同。他威脅稱,如果做不到就每七周投票罷免一名董事,直到董事會同意為止。他還威脅稱,如果因?yàn)橄蚩湛椭Ц犊铐?xiàng)而導(dǎo)致破產(chǎn),就將對公司提起訴訟。

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易捷航空的創(chuàng)始人斯特里奧斯·哈吉-約安努利用公司最大股東的身份,就公司升級機(jī)隊(duì)的計(jì)劃與管理層展開了曠日持久的斗爭。圖片來源:Chris Ratcliffe—Bloomberg via Getty Images

隆格倫和董事會都深受打擊。首席執(zhí)行官隆格倫告訴英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times),哈吉-約安努的行為“非常不受歡迎”、“毫無作用”,而且會“分散注意力”。易捷航空指出,合同中沒有不可抗力條款。此外,合同里還涉及易捷航空的現(xiàn)有機(jī)隊(duì)維護(hù)和航空電子設(shè)備支持。航空公司不能簡單地背棄合同,否則危機(jī)結(jié)束時(shí)可能錯(cuò)過快速復(fù)蘇的機(jī)會。

隆格倫還認(rèn)為合同具有長期戰(zhàn)略意義。在消費(fèi)者和政府可能越發(fā)要求航空公司為氣候影響負(fù)責(zé)之際,省油型飛機(jī)能夠幫助易捷航空減少碳足跡。隆格倫在易捷航空努力塑造新世界方面一直是行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。2019年,易捷航空就開始為所有航班排放的二氧化碳購買碳補(bǔ)償。“當(dāng)消費(fèi)者開始考慮環(huán)保做出選擇時(shí),我認(rèn)為遲早有那么一天,屆時(shí)在可持續(xù)性方面的投入會獲得回報(bào)。”波士頓咨詢公司的顧問莫勒納表示,“易捷航空一直在為此做準(zhǔn)備。”

當(dāng)易捷航空的董事會拒絕哈吉-約安努的要求時(shí),他不斷威脅,還要求召開特別會議,就董事會成員安德烈亞斯·比爾沃思免職進(jìn)行表決。比爾沃思曾經(jīng)是奧地利航空公司(Austrian Airlines)和漢莎航空公司的高管,哈吉-約安努稱其為“空客的朋友”。董事會以技術(shù)原因否決該訴求時(shí),哈吉-約安努再次提出,要求免去首席財(cái)務(wù)官安德魯·芬德利的職務(wù)。這一次,他成功地安排在2020年5月22日投票。

2020年4月,易捷航空宣布已經(jīng)與空客達(dá)成協(xié)議推遲交付24架飛機(jī),意味著2021年不再購入新飛機(jī)。目前尚不清楚哈吉-約安努施加的壓力在這一決定中發(fā)揮了什么作用。但推遲并不意味著取消合同,所以毫不奇怪,哈吉-約安努并不滿意。他指出,易捷航空未能說明推遲對易捷航空的燒錢計(jì)劃具體有何影響,還表示易捷航空未披露細(xì)節(jié),而且對公司的收入和利潤恢復(fù)情況預(yù)測過于樂觀,可能參與了“市場操縱”。他將巴頓和隆格倫列入了希望趕走的“無賴”名單。

哈吉-約安努不斷加大賭注。他懸賞700萬美元給可以提供“有用信息”從而取消空客合同的“告密者”。他聲稱發(fā)現(xiàn)易捷航空的高層高管跟一名律師在瑞士舉行了由空客安排的秘密會議,根據(jù)巴拿馬文件(Panama Papers)透露,這名律師可能曾經(jīng)通過離岸空殼公司幫助客戶逃避國際制裁。哈吉-約安努暗示這是一直以來他指控的腐敗證據(jù)。易捷航空否認(rèn)該會面存在。哈吉-約安努還指控易捷航空的三家少數(shù)股東,包括資產(chǎn)管理公司Invesco、Phoenix Asset Management和Ninety One都是空客秘密控制的“稻草人”,因?yàn)槿夜径紟椭湛凸芾聿糠謫T工養(yǎng)老金資產(chǎn)。

但最終,哈吉-約安努的積極活動并未引起其他投資者的注意。三家在代理投票中為股東提供建議的知名公司,ISS、 Glass Lewis和Pirc都反對支持他的提議。5月的攤牌投票中,這位滿心不滿的創(chuàng)始人努力遭逢徹底失敗,不歸他和家人持有的股份中有99%反對罷免董事。哈吉-約安努宣稱結(jié)果被人為操縱,他認(rèn)為有空客養(yǎng)老金業(yè)務(wù)的基金公司不應(yīng)該有投票資格。

易捷航空的董事長巴頓希望將該事件盡快翻篇,他公開表示希望易捷航空能夠建設(shè)性地與創(chuàng)始人重新接觸,但“負(fù)面頭條新聞和宣傳為敬業(yè)的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)施加了不必要的壓力,對在英國和歐洲知名的品牌聲譽(yù)造成了負(fù)面影響。”盡管隆格倫的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)在談判投票中獲勝,但還是受到了影響。投票后的幾周里,易捷航空的首席財(cái)務(wù)官芬德利表示有意辭職,分析人士猜測,除了疫情造成的壓力,哈吉-約安努活動的壓力也是重要原因。“總是挑動股東找管理層麻煩并沒有什么幫助。”晨星的分析師科策指出。芬德利只是表示,在易捷航空工作近六年之后,“現(xiàn)在適合把財(cái)務(wù)控制權(quán)交給有助于幫易捷航空進(jìn)入下一篇章的人,”隆格倫則稱“(芬德利)離開讓他很遺憾。”

去年6月,易捷航空找到了巧妙的方法,可以同時(shí)緩解現(xiàn)金短缺和哈吉-約安努帶來的壓力,公司發(fā)行了相當(dāng)于已發(fā)行股本15%的新股,籌集到超過6.31億美元幫助公司挺過疫情。此舉也將哈吉-約安努的持股比例從2019年年初的超過34%稀釋到略低于30%,之后易捷航空董事會想無視這位愛發(fā)牢騷的創(chuàng)始人也就更容易。這并不是說要趕走他。事實(shí)上,哈吉-約安努還在不斷施壓,指稱空客合同暗藏腐敗,還說7月和12月的易捷航空股東大會上將提出問題。但與此同時(shí),哈吉-約安努和家人賣掉了一部分股份,到2020年5月持有股份總數(shù)不到27%。從實(shí)際角度來看,他對隆格倫構(gòu)成的威脅已經(jīng)消退。

擠出來的旅行

擊退了哈吉-約安努之后,隆格倫和易捷航空的管理層面臨著其他無法控制的敵人。2020年5月中旬,公司透露遭到黑客攻擊。攻擊者竊取了900多萬名客戶的郵件地址和旅行詳細(xì)信息,還“訪問”了2200多名客戶的信用卡和借記卡詳細(xì)信息。更糟糕的是,公司早在1月就發(fā)現(xiàn)了黑客攻擊,卻直到4月才通知信用卡信息泄露的人,現(xiàn)在才通知其他客戶。隱瞞行為導(dǎo)致易捷航空面臨著更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),既有英國主要數(shù)據(jù)保護(hù)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的巨額罰款,也有客戶的集體訴訟。如今,易捷航空宣布泄露事件已經(jīng)一年,卻仍然籠罩在種種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中。

最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)還是新冠病毒。2020年6月15日,易捷航空恢復(fù)飛行,僅限英國和法國航線。像各家復(fù)工的航空公司一樣,易捷航空規(guī)定了新流程,加大清潔力度、強(qiáng)制乘客和機(jī)組人員戴口罩、不提供餐食。公司希望種種措施能夠讓公眾重新乘坐飛機(jī)充滿信心。公司宣布,計(jì)劃到8月,逐步提高到正常運(yùn)力的75%。

事實(shí)證明,公司并沒有辦法增加航班。依賴休閑市場的廉價(jià)航空公司大部分利潤集中在4月到8月。然而在2020年里的這幾個(gè)月中,情況相當(dāng)糟糕。英國政府決定對所有抵英的人強(qiáng)制實(shí)行兩周隔離期,2020年夏初恢復(fù)的希望破滅了。在航空公司的壓力下,后來英國取消了對歐洲一些國家的隔離政策,但隨著西班牙和法國的感染率再次飆升,隔離政策重新啟動。從2020年6月15日易捷航空恢復(fù)飛行開始到9月,載客人數(shù)為950萬人次,而之前一年同期為3710萬人次。

蓋特威克機(jī)場空無一人的易捷航空值機(jī)柜臺。2020年6月至9月,易捷航空共運(yùn)送950萬乘客,比2019年同期減少近75%。圖片來源:Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images

隆格倫并未完全沮喪。在允許預(yù)訂以及隔離規(guī)定不受限制的地方,還是有不少乘客。隨著新的也更具傳染性的變異新冠病毒在歐洲迅速蔓延,10月英國很多地區(qū),從赫爾辛基到特拉維夫都重新實(shí)施隔離政策。易捷航空宣布,截至2020年9月的12個(gè)月,公司已經(jīng)損失10億美元。之后一個(gè)季度也沒有好多少。11月,英國在全境禁飛,臨近圣誕時(shí)短暫放松管控后,12月末再次收緊限制。易捷航空運(yùn)力僅為2019年的18%。對飽受打擊的易捷航空來說,恨不得2020年趕快過去。

擺脫廉價(jià)航空的形象

要了解易捷航空的前景,重要的是要了解其戰(zhàn)略定位。雖然易捷航空與位于都柏林的瑞安航空和新興的匈牙利航空公司維茲航空通常被分類為“歐洲廉價(jià)航空公司”,但易捷航空與其他幾家存在一些關(guān)鍵區(qū)別。“易捷航空一直是低成本航空公司,肯定不是最便宜的廉價(jià)航空。”Liberum的分析師邱在談到易捷航空時(shí)說,“易捷航空的定位是物有所值,而不是拼命變成市場上最便宜的一家。”

瑞安航空和維茲航空基本上只服務(wù)休閑旅客,往返二級甚至三級機(jī)場,在小機(jī)場里控制多數(shù)登機(jī)口,也可以在機(jī)場費(fèi)、地勤人員和行李人員工資方面費(fèi)勁地談判價(jià)格。主要開拓東歐新市場,一直努力降低座位成本。而另一方面,易捷航空的航線較少但更多在較大型機(jī)場,重點(diǎn)放在西歐。易捷航空還提供乘客更多額外服務(wù),例如免費(fèi)在機(jī)場辦理值機(jī)手續(xù)(瑞安航空向不在線值機(jī)的乘客收取手續(xù)費(fèi)),還有能夠享受優(yōu)先登機(jī)權(quán)的忠誠度計(jì)劃。如此一來,易捷航空的直接競爭對手更偏向歐洲傳統(tǒng)航空公司。

隆格倫表示,希望易捷航空在入駐的每家機(jī)場市場份額都可以躋身第一或第二。他積極采取行動,在認(rèn)為重要的市場上搶占更多機(jī)會。當(dāng)2017年競爭對手歐洲廉價(jià)航空公司柏林航空(Air Berlin)破產(chǎn)時(shí),隆格倫斥資4800萬美元收購了其在德國幾家機(jī)場的業(yè)務(wù),還購買了25架飛機(jī)。“我一直說,英國、德國、法國和意大利是我們重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的四個(gè)核心市場。”收購柏林航空的交易之后不久,他在2018年的世界旅游市場會議(World Travel Market conference)上表示。

不過,西歐主要機(jī)場的費(fèi)用要貴一些。因此,不管是定價(jià)還是成本,易捷航空在歐洲航空公司里采取了中間定位。2019年不算燃料和固定匯率的話,易捷航空的座位公里成本為4.45歐分,這是業(yè)內(nèi)關(guān)鍵的成本指標(biāo)。瑞安航空為2.25歐分,而英國航空公司約為5歐分,法國航空和荷蘭皇家航空為5.37歐分。券商Raymond James & Associates的航空公司分析師薩凡提·賽斯稱,易捷航空用飛機(jī)抵押貸款以撐過疫情,意味著一旦將債務(wù)納入計(jì)算范圍,成本基礎(chǔ)將升高:“公司是用未來飛機(jī)成本上漲換取當(dāng)下的流動性。”

實(shí)際上,這意味著易捷航空幾乎沒有機(jī)會在航線和定價(jià)上擊敗瑞安航空或維茲航空。但易捷航空有可能從傳統(tǒng)提供全面服務(wù)的航空公司手里搶走越來越多的市場份額。業(yè)內(nèi)領(lǐng)先的德世國際航空咨詢公司(Alton Aviation Consultancy)的董事總經(jīng)理莉亞·瑞恩表示,不少傳統(tǒng)航空公司靠著政府資助苦苦支撐,債務(wù)可能永遠(yuǎn)還不清。

易捷航空相較于服務(wù)全面的競爭對手還有其他優(yōu)勢。因?yàn)閭鹘y(tǒng)航空公司更依賴商務(wù)旅行,多位分析師預(yù)測,2024年之前可能都無法完全恢復(fù),甚至可能永遠(yuǎn)沒法恢復(fù)。波士頓咨詢公司的莫勒納表示,很多全面服務(wù)型航空公司深陷樞紐輻射的飛行網(wǎng)絡(luò)中,限制了調(diào)整的靈活性。而易捷航空之類的經(jīng)濟(jì)型航空公司主營點(diǎn)對點(diǎn)飛行,能夠通過降價(jià)促銷和廣告,然后調(diào)整航班時(shí)間表處理新預(yù)訂,更容易刺激需求。“舉個(gè)例子,廉價(jià)航空可以輕易將運(yùn)力從西班牙轉(zhuǎn)移到希臘,從而應(yīng)對新的旅行限制。”他說。

隆格倫之前在領(lǐng)先的歐洲包價(jià)旅游公司德國途易集團(tuán)(TUI Group)工作,后來入職易捷航空,希望將業(yè)務(wù)拓展到包價(jià)旅游。2019年12月,就在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前的幾個(gè)月,易捷航空的新度假部門剛剛成立。然而隆格倫表示仍將推進(jìn)相關(guān)策略,他告訴貿(mào)易刊物《旅行周刊》(Travel Weekly),“度假將引領(lǐng)旅游業(yè)復(fù)蘇。”Liberum的分析師邱指出,進(jìn)入包價(jià)度假業(yè)務(wù)具有戰(zhàn)略意義。“之前幾乎沒有做過這塊,很有機(jī)會從零開始做出點(diǎn)成績。”他談到假期旅游時(shí)說。但他也表示,之前多數(shù)廉價(jià)航空公司的執(zhí)行力較低,才妨礙包價(jià)度假推動利潤增長。

隆格倫的恢復(fù)計(jì)劃取決于歐洲整體的感染情況,很多地方仍然不太樂觀,而且歐洲大部分地區(qū)的疫苗接種率嚴(yán)重落后于美國、英國和以色列等。1月底,易捷航空宣布,通過5年期貸款又獲得了19億美元擔(dān)保,貸款抵押物還是飛機(jī)。該筆貸款能夠幫助易捷航空再多撐一段時(shí)間。公司也繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持,在旅游業(yè)大屠殺中看到了獲勝的機(jī)會,畢竟歐洲的傳統(tǒng)航空公司損失比易捷航空還糟,所以折扣航空公司在巴黎、米蘭、倫敦蓋特威克和日內(nèi)瓦等主要機(jī)場有機(jī)會爭取新航班。

跟幾乎所有航空公司一樣,易捷航空對2021年夏季的希望寄托在疫苗接種上。英國進(jìn)展良好,去年12月已經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)兩款疫苗,分別來自輝瑞制藥(Pfizer)和阿斯利康(AstraZeneca),1月初又批準(zhǔn)了Moderna進(jìn)口的第三種疫苗。到5月中旬,至少68%的成年人已經(jīng)注射一劑。瑞安航空甚至想在營銷中將疫苗接種與旅行聯(lián)系起來,今年1月推出了“打完疫苗就出發(fā)”的廣告語,由于沒有倡導(dǎo)負(fù)責(zé)任行為遭到英國廣告標(biāo)準(zhǔn)局(Britain’s Advertising Standards Authority)的反對,之后不得不撤回。不過,二者關(guān)聯(lián)對航空公司來說至關(guān)重要。“復(fù)蘇的速度將取決于疫苗接種率。”德世國際航空咨詢公司的瑞恩說。

易捷航空面臨的問題是,幾乎所有航線都涉及歐洲,而歐洲大陸在疫苗接種方面遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后。5月中旬,多數(shù)歐洲國家只有三分之一成人注射了一劑疫苗,主要因?yàn)橐呙绻?yīng)嚴(yán)重短缺,而且有人擔(dān)心阿斯利康和強(qiáng)生(Johnson & Johnson)的疫苗會導(dǎo)致罕見但十分危險(xiǎn)的凝血副作用。

如果不加快接種疫苗,歐洲可能出現(xiàn)第三波感染。與此同時(shí),英國宣布了5月17日恢復(fù)國際旅行,但將按照“紅綠燈系統(tǒng)”操作,來自紅色、黃色或綠色國家的旅客須遵守不同的要求。在熱門度假目的地中,只有葡萄牙和直布羅陀被列入第一批綠色名單,回國后無需隔離。歐洲大部分地區(qū)都是黃色,回國需要隔離10天,而且英國政府仍然不建議休閑旅行。至少有一個(gè)重要度假地土耳其列入了紅色名單,也就是說前往旅游的人回國后必須在酒店隔離10天。

綜合來看,種種限制意味著2021年夏季的旅游前景越發(fā)難測。

隆格倫抱怨稱,英國政府的旅行規(guī)定仍然過于嚴(yán)格。英國甚至要求從“綠色”國家返回的人登機(jī)前以及返回的兩天內(nèi)都要接受核酸檢測。政府還表示,第二次必須是更精確的PCR檢測,每位乘客可能要多花219英鎊(302美元)。隆格倫對英國廣播公司(BBC)說,這意味著只有富人才能夠度假,因?yàn)闄z測費(fèi)用“遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過易捷航空機(jī)票平均費(fèi)用”。易捷航空與一家醫(yī)保公司達(dá)成協(xié)議,以正常成本的一半的費(fèi)用提供檢測,每次60英鎊。費(fèi)用確實(shí)可以減少,但對四口之家來說仍然是很大的負(fù)擔(dān)。由于不確定性太多,休閑旅客推遲預(yù)訂夏季航班,易捷航空仍然在泥潭中掙扎。

憂郁曲調(diào)

在易捷航空大樞紐之一蓋特威克機(jī)場郊區(qū)的巨大機(jī)庫里,有一排五個(gè)先進(jìn)的吊艙,上面涂著易捷航空標(biāo)志性的橙色和白色。每個(gè)吊艙都裝在液壓腿上,登幾級金屬樓梯便可以鉆到門里。這些飛行模擬器都是空客A320的仿真駕駛艙。易捷航空的飛行員在此練習(xí)和保持技術(shù)。即使在疫情期間,模擬機(jī)也幾乎24小時(shí)不停忙碌,因?yàn)橐捉莺娇找恢迸ψ岋w行員獲得必要的認(rèn)證,為重新飛行做好準(zhǔn)備。

不過,培訓(xùn)中心是易捷航空在蓋特威克唯一仍然在運(yùn)行的部門。距離模擬機(jī)不遠(yuǎn)的停機(jī)坪上,十幾架真正的A320閑置著。往常引擎轟鳴聲、機(jī)場擺渡車和行李車隆隆作響,如今只有嗚嗚吹過的風(fēng)聲。

不管哪家航空公司的首席執(zhí)行官,看到這一幕都難免沮喪。1月接受倫敦媒體《標(biāo)準(zhǔn)晚報(bào)》(Evening Standard)采訪時(shí),隆格倫聲音低沉,他承認(rèn)很想念經(jīng)常去西班牙馬略卡島旅行,他在那有棟房子,跟朋友還有一間錄音室。他之前是長號手,還受過正統(tǒng)訓(xùn)練,曾經(jīng)表示之所以經(jīng)商,只是因?yàn)闆]由考進(jìn)倫敦皇家音樂學(xué)院(London’s Royal Academy of Music),但最近好久沒有演奏過,“因?yàn)闆]有靈感。”他說最近在重讀海明威的《老人與海》(The Old Man and the Sea),希望提升自己的堅(jiān)韌精神,也許是在主人公類似約伯的命運(yùn)和自己的困境之間找到了相似之處。隆格倫告訴記者:“書中講述了老人面對一個(gè)又一個(gè)挑戰(zhàn),但他總能調(diào)整情緒重新站起來。要記住,盡管無法控制遭遇,但總能控制自己的反應(yīng),這點(diǎn)很有幫助。感覺無能為力是最糟糕的感覺之一,不僅商界如此。”

易捷航空面臨的困境堪稱全行業(yè)的典型范本。公司用盡努力抵御新冠疫情造成的壓力,讓乘客相信飛行的安全性,前路卻依然風(fēng)雨飄搖,不知還要應(yīng)付多少意外和動蕩。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

歐洲最大廉價(jià)航空公司之一易捷航空(EasyJet)的首席執(zhí)行官約翰·隆格倫是Flightradar24的粉絲。網(wǎng)站上有世界地圖,根據(jù)雷達(dá)和應(yīng)答器數(shù)據(jù),每架飛行中的飛機(jī)都會顯示成圖標(biāo)。將鼠標(biāo)移到圖標(biāo)上就能夠看到飛機(jī)型號,屬于哪家航空公司,往返何地,甚至飛行高度和速度。

隆格倫說,之所以喜歡Flightradar24,是因?yàn)楹娇展局荒苷\實(shí)。如果乘客可以清楚地看到飛機(jī)還沒有從上一個(gè)目的地起飛,航空公司就不能采用傳統(tǒng)做法,像擠牙膏似的一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)通知壞消息,逐漸宣布延誤時(shí)間拖長。還有一個(gè)原因是,易捷航空能夠輕松地收集競爭對手航空公司的情報(bào)。

盡管如此,4月下旬的一個(gè)星期二早上,隆格倫看到Flightradar24之后肯定很不滿意。因?yàn)榭罩兄挥袃杉芤捉莺娇盏娘w機(jī),一架從倫敦蓋特威克機(jī)場(London’s Gatwick Airport)飛往法國里昂,另一架從貝爾法斯特飛往英吉利海峽的澤西島。通常情況下空中飛機(jī)都接近100架。但是自從2020年3月23日以來,易捷航空再也沒有正常過。當(dāng)日由于新冠病毒日益蔓延,英國政府首次建議海外的英國人在旅行限制措施實(shí)施前盡快歸國。

如今已經(jīng)過去了一年多,新冠疫情仍在肆虐,包括英國在內(nèi)的很多國家都在收緊旅行限制,防止變異病毒傳入,航空業(yè)對市場早日恢復(fù)的盼望落空,比易捷航空的總部盧頓機(jī)場(Luton Airport)最后進(jìn)場的空客(Airbus)A320降落得還快。雖然歐洲對休閑旅游的樂觀情緒重新燃起,近日英國也宣布重啟少數(shù)幾個(gè)目的地的國際旅行,但由于夏季重現(xiàn)旅行旺季的可能性不大,易捷航空面臨的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然巨大。

總體而言,航空公司已經(jīng)走出史上最慘的一年。根據(jù)國際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(International Air Transport Association)的數(shù)據(jù),受新冠疫情影響,2020年航空業(yè)共虧損1180億美元。隨著疫苗在全球各地推廣,今年預(yù)計(jì)航空公司損失將達(dá)到約380億美元。但新出現(xiàn)的傳染性更強(qiáng)而且有可能耐疫苗的變異病毒激增,導(dǎo)致各種預(yù)測存疑。

在疫情之前,易捷航空的業(yè)績比多家航空公司都好,盈利能力強(qiáng)、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表強(qiáng)勁、債務(wù)水平相對較低。作為主營歐洲境內(nèi)短途航班的廉價(jià)航空公司,易捷比長途航空公司調(diào)整航班更靈活,取消航班時(shí)不必?fù)?dān)心失去聯(lián)系或違反聯(lián)盟協(xié)議。不過,易捷還是未能逃過行業(yè)整體衰敗的命運(yùn)。2019年,易捷航空的收入為89億美元,實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤6億美元。2020年銷售額減少超過50%,為42億美元,也是有史以來首次出現(xiàn)年度虧損,稅前虧損近18億美元,相當(dāng)于一架大型噴氣式客機(jī)。與易捷航空類似的歐洲廉價(jià)航空公司瑞安航空(Ryanair)在上周宣布,過去12個(gè)月虧損約10億美元。

危機(jī)之中,54歲的隆格倫也要應(yīng)付競爭對手沒有的麻煩,比如斯特里奧斯·哈吉-約安努一樣不受歡迎的“超重行李”。1995年,哈吉-約安努創(chuàng)建了易捷航空,并以此為基礎(chǔ)打造了品牌帝國,涉及領(lǐng)域從租車和送比薩餅,還擴(kuò)展到大麻業(yè)務(wù)。哈吉-約安努現(xiàn)年54歲,是希臘塞浦路斯人,自2002年卸任董事長以來沒有在航空公司擔(dān)任正式管理職務(wù),但他仍然是公司的大股東。疫情之前他持有公司超過三分之一的股份。他并不是好相處的股東,十年來跟易捷航空的歷任首席執(zhí)行官和董事會爭吵不停,指責(zé)其制定的擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃野心太大、成本也太高,向制造業(yè)巨頭空客買了太多的新飛機(jī)。新冠疫情爆發(fā)時(shí),哈吉-約安努決定再次施壓,說服公司放棄收購,還發(fā)起委托代理戰(zhàn),想罷免董事會成員。

疫情之前,易捷航空公司看起來可能成為歐洲航空旅行最大贏家之一。易捷航空在歐洲跟美國西南航空公司(Southwest Airlines)相當(dāng),主營點(diǎn)對點(diǎn)航線,不像歐洲大型國家航空公司一樣采用昂貴的樞紐輻射模式。與此同時(shí),由于易捷航空經(jīng)常提供優(yōu)惠,而且常駐一線機(jī)場,形象比起瑞安航空和維茲航空(Wizz)等廉價(jià)航空公司略顯高端,所以可以吸引到一些商務(wù)旅客。隆格倫于2017年年末接手公司,計(jì)劃在差異經(jīng)營基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合有望盈利的新業(yè)務(wù),包括度假套餐、向商務(wù)旅客提供更多福利,以及新的忠誠計(jì)劃。

當(dāng)然,疫情中的商務(wù)和休閑旅行均受到重創(chuàng)。隆格倫動用各種財(cái)務(wù)杠桿確保易捷航空安全。如今面臨傳統(tǒng)的夏季旅行旺季,也是易捷航空大量利潤來源,不管是易捷航空還是首席執(zhí)行官都面臨著孤注一擲的時(shí)刻。如果新冠疫情不能迅速消退,休閑旅行就無法像預(yù)期一樣反彈,易捷航空的虧損只會越發(fā)嚴(yán)重,增長計(jì)劃可能無限期擱置。疫情之前一直躋身航空業(yè)前列的易捷航空到底命運(yùn)如何,可能昭示著整個(gè)行業(yè)的未來。如果易捷航空都做不到東山再起,哪家航空公司還能夠做到?

停飛、借錢

“我們要集中精力控制可以控制的事情。降低成本、管理現(xiàn)金消耗、獲取流動性。”隆格倫在去年11月接受美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)采訪時(shí)說。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo),隆格倫采取了比較激進(jìn)的手段。2020年3月底,易捷航空將所有飛機(jī)停飛。6月15日才復(fù)飛。公司宣布計(jì)劃將15000員工裁員30%。截至2021年1月底,約有1400名員工解雇或買斷工齡。

公司與工會談判,為更多的飛行員和機(jī)組人員提供季節(jié)合同,如此一來公司就方便為夏季調(diào)配更多的資源,因?yàn)橄奶斓睦麧櫢唷9局霸谟齻€(gè)外包機(jī)場維修飛機(jī),還跟幾個(gè)機(jī)場的地面勤務(wù)公司重新談判了合同,從而降低成本。

在實(shí)施種種舉措后,截至2020年9月30日期間,易捷航空將一年運(yùn)營成本(不含燃油)降低了31%左右。公司還實(shí)現(xiàn)了一系列小改進(jìn),座位燃油成本提升了2.9%:例如讓飛行員滑行時(shí)只用一臺發(fā)動機(jī),爬升時(shí)盡快到達(dá)巡航高度,因?yàn)楦吆0嗡斤w行更省油。但種種節(jié)約措施并未遏制公司現(xiàn)金流出血,2019年,易捷航空的運(yùn)營收入超過10億美元。2020年則變成虧損逾10億美元。

有些人懷疑,向來以好人著稱的隆格倫到底會不會大刀闊斧削減成本,這是疫情期間運(yùn)營廉價(jià)航空特別需要的魄力。“廉價(jià)航空公司一定要激進(jìn)、無情且粗暴。”金融研究公司晨星(Morningstar)的航空業(yè)分析師喬基姆·科策說。科策比較了隆格倫和競爭對手、經(jīng)營瑞安航空的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·奧利里,奧利里向來以嚴(yán)酷控制開支且好斗聞名。“他經(jīng)營公司時(shí)盡可能精干,當(dāng)好人可做不到。”科策說。(隆格倫拒絕就本文置評。)

由于易捷航空現(xiàn)金消耗巨大,需要更快籌集更多資金。易捷航空在歐洲很多競爭對手都是載旗航空公司,例如法國航空(Air France)、荷蘭皇家航空(KLM)、漢莎航空(Lufthansa)、北歐航空(SAS)、西班牙航空(Iberia)、葡萄牙航空(TAP Air Portugal)、瑞士航空(Swiss Air)和英國航空(British Airways)等。雖然現(xiàn)在多是私人所有,但其中多家公司曾經(jīng)是國有,而且有些公司里政府仍然持有規(guī)模不小的股份。因此不少公司承載著國家的自豪,工作崗位和養(yǎng)老金支付也能夠獲得幫助。新冠疫情重創(chuàng)航空業(yè)時(shí),多國政府對求助作出了回應(yīng)。2020年3月起,歐洲政府對航空業(yè)援助超過322億美元。據(jù)匯豐銀行(HSBC)的一份報(bào)告分析,援助主要通過撥款、貸款和債轉(zhuǎn)股等方式。“大型航空公司規(guī)模龐大,對很多經(jīng)濟(jì)體非常重要,所以各國政府盡一切可能讓航空公司活下去。”波士頓咨詢公司(Boston Consulting Group)的旅游業(yè)顧問德克-馬爾滕·莫勒納表示。

對于像易捷航空一樣獨(dú)立運(yùn)營的公司來說,尋找資金更為困難,尤其是因?yàn)橛趧傞_始不愿意為航空業(yè)制定救助計(jì)劃。2020年4月,易捷航空通過英國政府為大型雇主提供的新冠肺炎企業(yè)融資工具(COVID Corporate Finance Facility)獲得8.45億美元貸款。易捷航空還充分利用循環(huán)信用額度籌集到5億美元現(xiàn)金。公司還獲得了5.63億美元的兩筆定期貸款,2022年2月到期。

最后,2021年2月,易捷航空也利用了投資者信心突然回升的時(shí)機(jī),當(dāng)時(shí)有消息稱英國疫苗接種順利,夏季末可能重新開放國際旅游。易捷航空發(fā)行7年期債券籌集到15億美元,年利率為1.875%。債券超額認(rèn)購多達(dá)6倍,顯示市場對易捷航空的前景信心十足。據(jù)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Liberum的交通行業(yè)分析師杰拉德·邱分析,之所以認(rèn)購如此火熱,也因?yàn)橐捉莺娇帐悄壳叭騼H有四家仍然被評為投資級別的航空公司之一。(另外三家包括競爭對手瑞安航空和維茲航空,以及美國西南航空,易捷剛開始學(xué)習(xí)的便是美國西南航空的商業(yè)模式。)

與一些低成本航空對手相比,易捷航空直接擁有的飛機(jī)更多。自疫情開始以來,易捷航空賣掉并租賃58架飛機(jī),從中融資21億美元。現(xiàn)在公司直接擁有的飛機(jī)僅占總數(shù)略超過一半,較2019年的70%有所下降,擁有飛機(jī)當(dāng)中10架有6架已經(jīng)貸款抵押。但是,易捷航空對機(jī)隊(duì)的安排很快激發(fā)了與創(chuàng)始人之間長期存在的矛盾。

與創(chuàng)始人斗爭

同時(shí),公司也在處理飛機(jī)籌集現(xiàn)金,將其他飛機(jī)在“埋骨地”長期存放,公司仍然將接收14架全新的空客A320和A321 Neo。因此盡管疫情導(dǎo)致旅行低迷,2020年年末,易捷航空的機(jī)隊(duì)飛機(jī)數(shù)量比年初還有所增加。易捷航空與航空巨頭空客簽訂了長期合同,約定要購買100多架新飛機(jī),2024年之前至少包括55架。合同中都是空客最省油的機(jī)型,可以為易捷航空節(jié)省長期運(yùn)營成本。但合同也規(guī)定,易捷航空在2023年之前支付至少60億美元,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了公司目前的市值。

自2013年易捷航空與空客簽署合作協(xié)議以來,哈吉-約安努一直反對,此次購買合同讓他大為惱火。2020年1月,空客同意推遲與法國、美國和英國的起訴協(xié)議,還要為多年來賄賂航空公司高管以簽署合同的指控支付數(shù)十億美元罰款,哈吉-約安努的憤怒更是加劇。

新冠疫情爆發(fā)時(shí),憤憤不平的哈吉-約安努終于找到迫使易捷航空放棄協(xié)議的機(jī)會。2020年3月,他給易捷航空公司的董事長約翰·巴頓寫信,要求公司以不可抗力為由終止合同。他威脅稱,如果做不到就每七周投票罷免一名董事,直到董事會同意為止。他還威脅稱,如果因?yàn)橄蚩湛椭Ц犊铐?xiàng)而導(dǎo)致破產(chǎn),就將對公司提起訴訟。

隆格倫和董事會都深受打擊。首席執(zhí)行官隆格倫告訴英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》(Financial Times),哈吉-約安努的行為“非常不受歡迎”、“毫無作用”,而且會“分散注意力”。易捷航空指出,合同中沒有不可抗力條款。此外,合同里還涉及易捷航空的現(xiàn)有機(jī)隊(duì)維護(hù)和航空電子設(shè)備支持。航空公司不能簡單地背棄合同,否則危機(jī)結(jié)束時(shí)可能錯(cuò)過快速復(fù)蘇的機(jī)會。

隆格倫還認(rèn)為合同具有長期戰(zhàn)略意義。在消費(fèi)者和政府可能越發(fā)要求航空公司為氣候影響負(fù)責(zé)之際,省油型飛機(jī)能夠幫助易捷航空減少碳足跡。隆格倫在易捷航空努力塑造新世界方面一直是行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。2019年,易捷航空就開始為所有航班排放的二氧化碳購買碳補(bǔ)償。“當(dāng)消費(fèi)者開始考慮環(huán)保做出選擇時(shí),我認(rèn)為遲早有那么一天,屆時(shí)在可持續(xù)性方面的投入會獲得回報(bào)。”波士頓咨詢公司的顧問莫勒納表示,“易捷航空一直在為此做準(zhǔn)備。”

當(dāng)易捷航空的董事會拒絕哈吉-約安努的要求時(shí),他不斷威脅,還要求召開特別會議,就董事會成員安德烈亞斯·比爾沃思免職進(jìn)行表決。比爾沃思曾經(jīng)是奧地利航空公司(Austrian Airlines)和漢莎航空公司的高管,哈吉-約安努稱其為“空客的朋友”。董事會以技術(shù)原因否決該訴求時(shí),哈吉-約安努再次提出,要求免去首席財(cái)務(wù)官安德魯·芬德利的職務(wù)。這一次,他成功地安排在2020年5月22日投票。

2020年4月,易捷航空宣布已經(jīng)與空客達(dá)成協(xié)議推遲交付24架飛機(jī),意味著2021年不再購入新飛機(jī)。目前尚不清楚哈吉-約安努施加的壓力在這一決定中發(fā)揮了什么作用。但推遲并不意味著取消合同,所以毫不奇怪,哈吉-約安努并不滿意。他指出,易捷航空未能說明推遲對易捷航空的燒錢計(jì)劃具體有何影響,還表示易捷航空未披露細(xì)節(jié),而且對公司的收入和利潤恢復(fù)情況預(yù)測過于樂觀,可能參與了“市場操縱”。他將巴頓和隆格倫列入了希望趕走的“無賴”名單。

哈吉-約安努不斷加大賭注。他懸賞700萬美元給可以提供“有用信息”從而取消空客合同的“告密者”。他聲稱發(fā)現(xiàn)易捷航空的高層高管跟一名律師在瑞士舉行了由空客安排的秘密會議,根據(jù)巴拿馬文件(Panama Papers)透露,這名律師可能曾經(jīng)通過離岸空殼公司幫助客戶逃避國際制裁。哈吉-約安努暗示這是一直以來他指控的腐敗證據(jù)。易捷航空否認(rèn)該會面存在。哈吉-約安努還指控易捷航空的三家少數(shù)股東,包括資產(chǎn)管理公司Invesco、Phoenix Asset Management和Ninety One都是空客秘密控制的“稻草人”,因?yàn)槿夜径紟椭湛凸芾聿糠謫T工養(yǎng)老金資產(chǎn)。

但最終,哈吉-約安努的積極活動并未引起其他投資者的注意。三家在代理投票中為股東提供建議的知名公司,ISS、 Glass Lewis和Pirc都反對支持他的提議。5月的攤牌投票中,這位滿心不滿的創(chuàng)始人努力遭逢徹底失敗,不歸他和家人持有的股份中有99%反對罷免董事。哈吉-約安努宣稱結(jié)果被人為操縱,他認(rèn)為有空客養(yǎng)老金業(yè)務(wù)的基金公司不應(yīng)該有投票資格。

易捷航空的董事長巴頓希望將該事件盡快翻篇,他公開表示希望易捷航空能夠建設(shè)性地與創(chuàng)始人重新接觸,但“負(fù)面頭條新聞和宣傳為敬業(yè)的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)施加了不必要的壓力,對在英國和歐洲知名的品牌聲譽(yù)造成了負(fù)面影響。”盡管隆格倫的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)在談判投票中獲勝,但還是受到了影響。投票后的幾周里,易捷航空的首席財(cái)務(wù)官芬德利表示有意辭職,分析人士猜測,除了疫情造成的壓力,哈吉-約安努活動的壓力也是重要原因。“總是挑動股東找管理層麻煩并沒有什么幫助。”晨星的分析師科策指出。芬德利只是表示,在易捷航空工作近六年之后,“現(xiàn)在適合把財(cái)務(wù)控制權(quán)交給有助于幫易捷航空進(jìn)入下一篇章的人,”隆格倫則稱“(芬德利)離開讓他很遺憾。”

去年6月,易捷航空找到了巧妙的方法,可以同時(shí)緩解現(xiàn)金短缺和哈吉-約安努帶來的壓力,公司發(fā)行了相當(dāng)于已發(fā)行股本15%的新股,籌集到超過6.31億美元幫助公司挺過疫情。此舉也將哈吉-約安努的持股比例從2019年年初的超過34%稀釋到略低于30%,之后易捷航空董事會想無視這位愛發(fā)牢騷的創(chuàng)始人也就更容易。這并不是說要趕走他。事實(shí)上,哈吉-約安努還在不斷施壓,指稱空客合同暗藏腐敗,還說7月和12月的易捷航空股東大會上將提出問題。但與此同時(shí),哈吉-約安努和家人賣掉了一部分股份,到2020年5月持有股份總數(shù)不到27%。從實(shí)際角度來看,他對隆格倫構(gòu)成的威脅已經(jīng)消退。

擠出來的旅行

擊退了哈吉-約安努之后,隆格倫和易捷航空的管理層面臨著其他無法控制的敵人。2020年5月中旬,公司透露遭到黑客攻擊。攻擊者竊取了900多萬名客戶的郵件地址和旅行詳細(xì)信息,還“訪問”了2200多名客戶的信用卡和借記卡詳細(xì)信息。更糟糕的是,公司早在1月就發(fā)現(xiàn)了黑客攻擊,卻直到4月才通知信用卡信息泄露的人,現(xiàn)在才通知其他客戶。隱瞞行為導(dǎo)致易捷航空面臨著更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),既有英國主要數(shù)據(jù)保護(hù)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的巨額罰款,也有客戶的集體訴訟。如今,易捷航空宣布泄露事件已經(jīng)一年,卻仍然籠罩在種種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中。

最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)還是新冠病毒。2020年6月15日,易捷航空恢復(fù)飛行,僅限英國和法國航線。像各家復(fù)工的航空公司一樣,易捷航空規(guī)定了新流程,加大清潔力度、強(qiáng)制乘客和機(jī)組人員戴口罩、不提供餐食。公司希望種種措施能夠讓公眾重新乘坐飛機(jī)充滿信心。公司宣布,計(jì)劃到8月,逐步提高到正常運(yùn)力的75%。

事實(shí)證明,公司并沒有辦法增加航班。依賴休閑市場的廉價(jià)航空公司大部分利潤集中在4月到8月。然而在2020年里的這幾個(gè)月中,情況相當(dāng)糟糕。英國政府決定對所有抵英的人強(qiáng)制實(shí)行兩周隔離期,2020年夏初恢復(fù)的希望破滅了。在航空公司的壓力下,后來英國取消了對歐洲一些國家的隔離政策,但隨著西班牙和法國的感染率再次飆升,隔離政策重新啟動。從2020年6月15日易捷航空恢復(fù)飛行開始到9月,載客人數(shù)為950萬人次,而之前一年同期為3710萬人次。

隆格倫并未完全沮喪。在允許預(yù)訂以及隔離規(guī)定不受限制的地方,還是有不少乘客。隨著新的也更具傳染性的變異新冠病毒在歐洲迅速蔓延,10月英國很多地區(qū),從赫爾辛基到特拉維夫都重新實(shí)施隔離政策。易捷航空宣布,截至2020年9月的12個(gè)月,公司已經(jīng)損失10億美元。之后一個(gè)季度也沒有好多少。11月,英國在全境禁飛,臨近圣誕時(shí)短暫放松管控后,12月末再次收緊限制。易捷航空運(yùn)力僅為2019年的18%。對飽受打擊的易捷航空來說,恨不得2020年趕快過去。

擺脫廉價(jià)航空的形象

要了解易捷航空的前景,重要的是要了解其戰(zhàn)略定位。雖然易捷航空與位于都柏林的瑞安航空和新興的匈牙利航空公司維茲航空通常被分類為“歐洲廉價(jià)航空公司”,但易捷航空與其他幾家存在一些關(guān)鍵區(qū)別。“易捷航空一直是低成本航空公司,肯定不是最便宜的廉價(jià)航空。”Liberum的分析師邱在談到易捷航空時(shí)說,“易捷航空的定位是物有所值,而不是拼命變成市場上最便宜的一家。”

瑞安航空和維茲航空基本上只服務(wù)休閑旅客,往返二級甚至三級機(jī)場,在小機(jī)場里控制多數(shù)登機(jī)口,也可以在機(jī)場費(fèi)、地勤人員和行李人員工資方面費(fèi)勁地談判價(jià)格。主要開拓東歐新市場,一直努力降低座位成本。而另一方面,易捷航空的航線較少但更多在較大型機(jī)場,重點(diǎn)放在西歐。易捷航空還提供乘客更多額外服務(wù),例如免費(fèi)在機(jī)場辦理值機(jī)手續(xù)(瑞安航空向不在線值機(jī)的乘客收取手續(xù)費(fèi)),還有能夠享受優(yōu)先登機(jī)權(quán)的忠誠度計(jì)劃。如此一來,易捷航空的直接競爭對手更偏向歐洲傳統(tǒng)航空公司。

隆格倫表示,希望易捷航空在入駐的每家機(jī)場市場份額都可以躋身第一或第二。他積極采取行動,在認(rèn)為重要的市場上搶占更多機(jī)會。當(dāng)2017年競爭對手歐洲廉價(jià)航空公司柏林航空(Air Berlin)破產(chǎn)時(shí),隆格倫斥資4800萬美元收購了其在德國幾家機(jī)場的業(yè)務(wù),還購買了25架飛機(jī)。“我一直說,英國、德國、法國和意大利是我們重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的四個(gè)核心市場。”收購柏林航空的交易之后不久,他在2018年的世界旅游市場會議(World Travel Market conference)上表示。

不過,西歐主要機(jī)場的費(fèi)用要貴一些。因此,不管是定價(jià)還是成本,易捷航空在歐洲航空公司里采取了中間定位。2019年不算燃料和固定匯率的話,易捷航空的座位公里成本為4.45歐分,這是業(yè)內(nèi)關(guān)鍵的成本指標(biāo)。瑞安航空為2.25歐分,而英國航空公司約為5歐分,法國航空和荷蘭皇家航空為5.37歐分。券商Raymond James & Associates的航空公司分析師薩凡提·賽斯稱,易捷航空用飛機(jī)抵押貸款以撐過疫情,意味著一旦將債務(wù)納入計(jì)算范圍,成本基礎(chǔ)將升高:“公司是用未來飛機(jī)成本上漲換取當(dāng)下的流動性。”

實(shí)際上,這意味著易捷航空幾乎沒有機(jī)會在航線和定價(jià)上擊敗瑞安航空或維茲航空。但易捷航空有可能從傳統(tǒng)提供全面服務(wù)的航空公司手里搶走越來越多的市場份額。業(yè)內(nèi)領(lǐng)先的德世國際航空咨詢公司(Alton Aviation Consultancy)的董事總經(jīng)理莉亞·瑞恩表示,不少傳統(tǒng)航空公司靠著政府資助苦苦支撐,債務(wù)可能永遠(yuǎn)還不清。

易捷航空相較于服務(wù)全面的競爭對手還有其他優(yōu)勢。因?yàn)閭鹘y(tǒng)航空公司更依賴商務(wù)旅行,多位分析師預(yù)測,2024年之前可能都無法完全恢復(fù),甚至可能永遠(yuǎn)沒法恢復(fù)。波士頓咨詢公司的莫勒納表示,很多全面服務(wù)型航空公司深陷樞紐輻射的飛行網(wǎng)絡(luò)中,限制了調(diào)整的靈活性。而易捷航空之類的經(jīng)濟(jì)型航空公司主營點(diǎn)對點(diǎn)飛行,能夠通過降價(jià)促銷和廣告,然后調(diào)整航班時(shí)間表處理新預(yù)訂,更容易刺激需求。“舉個(gè)例子,廉價(jià)航空可以輕易將運(yùn)力從西班牙轉(zhuǎn)移到希臘,從而應(yīng)對新的旅行限制。”他說。

隆格倫之前在領(lǐng)先的歐洲包價(jià)旅游公司德國途易集團(tuán)(TUI Group)工作,后來入職易捷航空,希望將業(yè)務(wù)拓展到包價(jià)旅游。2019年12月,就在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之前的幾個(gè)月,易捷航空的新度假部門剛剛成立。然而隆格倫表示仍將推進(jìn)相關(guān)策略,他告訴貿(mào)易刊物《旅行周刊》(Travel Weekly),“度假將引領(lǐng)旅游業(yè)復(fù)蘇。”Liberum的分析師邱指出,進(jìn)入包價(jià)度假業(yè)務(wù)具有戰(zhàn)略意義。“之前幾乎沒有做過這塊,很有機(jī)會從零開始做出點(diǎn)成績。”他談到假期旅游時(shí)說。但他也表示,之前多數(shù)廉價(jià)航空公司的執(zhí)行力較低,才妨礙包價(jià)度假推動利潤增長。

隆格倫的恢復(fù)計(jì)劃取決于歐洲整體的感染情況,很多地方仍然不太樂觀,而且歐洲大部分地區(qū)的疫苗接種率嚴(yán)重落后于美國、英國和以色列等。1月底,易捷航空宣布,通過5年期貸款又獲得了19億美元擔(dān)保,貸款抵押物還是飛機(jī)。該筆貸款能夠幫助易捷航空再多撐一段時(shí)間。公司也繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持,在旅游業(yè)大屠殺中看到了獲勝的機(jī)會,畢竟歐洲的傳統(tǒng)航空公司損失比易捷航空還糟,所以折扣航空公司在巴黎、米蘭、倫敦蓋特威克和日內(nèi)瓦等主要機(jī)場有機(jī)會爭取新航班。

跟幾乎所有航空公司一樣,易捷航空對2021年夏季的希望寄托在疫苗接種上。英國進(jìn)展良好,去年12月已經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)兩款疫苗,分別來自輝瑞制藥(Pfizer)和阿斯利康(AstraZeneca),1月初又批準(zhǔn)了Moderna進(jìn)口的第三種疫苗。到5月中旬,至少68%的成年人已經(jīng)注射一劑。瑞安航空甚至想在營銷中將疫苗接種與旅行聯(lián)系起來,今年1月推出了“打完疫苗就出發(fā)”的廣告語,由于沒有倡導(dǎo)負(fù)責(zé)任行為遭到英國廣告標(biāo)準(zhǔn)局(Britain’s Advertising Standards Authority)的反對,之后不得不撤回。不過,二者關(guān)聯(lián)對航空公司來說至關(guān)重要。“復(fù)蘇的速度將取決于疫苗接種率。”德世國際航空咨詢公司的瑞恩說。

易捷航空面臨的問題是,幾乎所有航線都涉及歐洲,而歐洲大陸在疫苗接種方面遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后。5月中旬,多數(shù)歐洲國家只有三分之一成人注射了一劑疫苗,主要因?yàn)橐呙绻?yīng)嚴(yán)重短缺,而且有人擔(dān)心阿斯利康和強(qiáng)生(Johnson & Johnson)的疫苗會導(dǎo)致罕見但十分危險(xiǎn)的凝血副作用。

如果不加快接種疫苗,歐洲可能出現(xiàn)第三波感染。與此同時(shí),英國宣布了5月17日恢復(fù)國際旅行,但將按照“紅綠燈系統(tǒng)”操作,來自紅色、黃色或綠色國家的旅客須遵守不同的要求。在熱門度假目的地中,只有葡萄牙和直布羅陀被列入第一批綠色名單,回國后無需隔離。歐洲大部分地區(qū)都是黃色,回國需要隔離10天,而且英國政府仍然不建議休閑旅行。至少有一個(gè)重要度假地土耳其列入了紅色名單,也就是說前往旅游的人回國后必須在酒店隔離10天。

綜合來看,種種限制意味著2021年夏季的旅游前景越發(fā)難測。

隆格倫抱怨稱,英國政府的旅行規(guī)定仍然過于嚴(yán)格。英國甚至要求從“綠色”國家返回的人登機(jī)前以及返回的兩天內(nèi)都要接受核酸檢測。政府還表示,第二次必須是更精確的PCR檢測,每位乘客可能要多花219英鎊(302美元)。隆格倫對英國廣播公司(BBC)說,這意味著只有富人才能夠度假,因?yàn)闄z測費(fèi)用“遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過易捷航空機(jī)票平均費(fèi)用”。易捷航空與一家醫(yī)保公司達(dá)成協(xié)議,以正常成本的一半的費(fèi)用提供檢測,每次60英鎊。費(fèi)用確實(shí)可以減少,但對四口之家來說仍然是很大的負(fù)擔(dān)。由于不確定性太多,休閑旅客推遲預(yù)訂夏季航班,易捷航空仍然在泥潭中掙扎。

憂郁曲調(diào)

在易捷航空大樞紐之一蓋特威克機(jī)場郊區(qū)的巨大機(jī)庫里,有一排五個(gè)先進(jìn)的吊艙,上面涂著易捷航空標(biāo)志性的橙色和白色。每個(gè)吊艙都裝在液壓腿上,登幾級金屬樓梯便可以鉆到門里。這些飛行模擬器都是空客A320的仿真駕駛艙。易捷航空的飛行員在此練習(xí)和保持技術(shù)。即使在疫情期間,模擬機(jī)也幾乎24小時(shí)不停忙碌,因?yàn)橐捉莺娇找恢迸ψ岋w行員獲得必要的認(rèn)證,為重新飛行做好準(zhǔn)備。

不過,培訓(xùn)中心是易捷航空在蓋特威克唯一仍然在運(yùn)行的部門。距離模擬機(jī)不遠(yuǎn)的停機(jī)坪上,十幾架真正的A320閑置著。往常引擎轟鳴聲、機(jī)場擺渡車和行李車隆隆作響,如今只有嗚嗚吹過的風(fēng)聲。

不管哪家航空公司的首席執(zhí)行官,看到這一幕都難免沮喪。1月接受倫敦媒體《標(biāo)準(zhǔn)晚報(bào)》(Evening Standard)采訪時(shí),隆格倫聲音低沉,他承認(rèn)很想念經(jīng)常去西班牙馬略卡島旅行,他在那有棟房子,跟朋友還有一間錄音室。他之前是長號手,還受過正統(tǒng)訓(xùn)練,曾經(jīng)表示之所以經(jīng)商,只是因?yàn)闆]由考進(jìn)倫敦皇家音樂學(xué)院(London’s Royal Academy of Music),但最近好久沒有演奏過,“因?yàn)闆]有靈感。”他說最近在重讀海明威的《老人與海》(The Old Man and the Sea),希望提升自己的堅(jiān)韌精神,也許是在主人公類似約伯的命運(yùn)和自己的困境之間找到了相似之處。隆格倫告訴記者:“書中講述了老人面對一個(gè)又一個(gè)挑戰(zhàn),但他總能調(diào)整情緒重新站起來。要記住,盡管無法控制遭遇,但總能控制自己的反應(yīng),這點(diǎn)很有幫助。感覺無能為力是最糟糕的感覺之一,不僅商界如此。”

易捷航空面臨的困境堪稱全行業(yè)的典型范本。公司用盡努力抵御新冠疫情造成的壓力,讓乘客相信飛行的安全性,前路卻依然風(fēng)雨飄搖,不知還要應(yīng)付多少意外和動蕩。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

Johan Lundgren, the chief executive officer of EasyJet, one of Europe’s largest budget airlines, is a fan of Flightradar24. The website features a map of the world that displays a small airplane icon for every flight in the air, based on radar and transponder data. Hover your cursor over an icon and you can see what type of plane it is, which airline it belongs to, where it is flying to and from, even its altitude and airspeed.

Lundgren says he likes the site because it keeps airlines honest: When customers can see that their inbound aircraft hasn’t even taken off from its previous destination yet, there’s no point in feeding them the bad news with an eyedropper, as airlines traditionally had done, gradually announcing slightly longer delays. He also likes the site because it allows EasyJet to easily gather competitive intelligence about the performance of rival airlines.

Still, Lundgren could not have been happy with the Flightradar24 map on a Tuesday morning in late April. Just two EasyJet aircraft were in the air, one en route from London’s Gatwick Airport to Lyon in France; another from Belfast to the English Channel island of Jersey. Normally there would have been close to 100. But nothing has been normal for EasyJet since March 23, 2020. That’s the day the U.K. government first advised Britons abroad to return home as soon as possible in advance of impending travel restrictions because of the growing coronavirus pandemic.

Now, more than a year later, with the pandemic still raging, and with many countries, including the U.K., having toughened travel restrictions in response to new strains of the virus, the airline industry’s hopes for an early recovery are descending faster than an Airbus A320 on final approach to EasyJet’s home base at Luton Airport. And while optimism about leisure travel in Europe is slowly rekindling—this week, the U.K. announced a resumption of international travel to a limited number of destinations—EasyJet still faces plenty of potential turbulence, as the likelihood of a robust summer season recedes.

Airlines in general are already coming off their worst year on record: Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, the industry collectively lost $118 billion in 2020, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The carriers were expected to pare their loses to about $38 billion this year, as vaccines are rolled out across the world. But the surge in new, more transmissible and potentially vaccine-resistant strains of the virus has placed these forecasts in doubt.

EasyJet came into the pandemic in better shape than many airlines: It was profitable and had a strong balance sheet, with relatively low levels of debt. As a budget airline focused exclusively on short-haul flights within Europe, it had more flexibility than long-haul carriers to adjust its flight schedule, canceling flights without worrying about losing connections or violating alliance agreements. Still, it wasn’t spared from the industry’s general carnage. EasyJet’s revenues in 2019 were $8.9 billion, on which it made $600 million in profit. In 2020, sales cratered more than 50% to $4.2 billion, and the airline recorded its first ever annual loss: a jumbo jetliner-size blast of red ink totaling nearly $1.8 billion before tax. (EasyJet's fellow European budget carrier, Ryanair, announced last week that it had lost about $1 billion in the preceding 12 months.)

The crisis has also posed complications for the 54-year-old Lundgren that his competitors don’t face, including some particularly unwelcome excess baggage in the form of Stelios Haji-Ioannou. Haji-Ioannou founded EasyJet in 1995, eventually using it as a springboard to create of an Easy-branded empire that extended from car rentals and pizza delivery to a hemp business. The 54-year-old Greek-Cypriot entrepreneur hasn’t had a formal management role in the airline since he stepped down as chairman in 2002, but he remained a major shareholder, owning more than a third of the company before the pandemic hit. And he was not a happy shareholder: For a decade, he had sparred with a succession of EasyJet CEOs and boards—faulting them for overly ambitious and costly expansion plans and for ordering too many new aircraft from manufacturing giant Airbus. When the pandemic struck, Haji-Ioannou decided to renew his pressure to convince the airline to abandon the purchase—ultimately mounting a proxy campaign to remove directors from the board.

Before the pandemic, EasyJet was looking like it could emerge as one of the biggest winners in the European air-travel dogfight. The airline had become Europe’s equivalent of Southwest in the U.S. Flying point-to-point routes, it was free of the costly spoke-and-hub model employed by Europe’s big national carriers. At the same time, it was wooing at least some business travelers by differentiating itself from no-frills rivals like Ryanair and Wizz, offering some perks and serving first-tier airports. And Lundgren, who took over in late 2017, had big plans to build on that differentiation with potentially lucrative new ventures, including vacation packages, more benefits for business, and a new loyalty program.

The pandemic, of course, wiped out business and leisure travel alike. Lundgren has pulled every financial lever available to him to keep EasyJet aloft. Now, at the cusp of a summer season that normally would be the source of the majority of EasyJet’s profits, the airline and its CEO face what could be a make-or-break season. If COVID doesn’t ease more quickly, and leisure travel doesn’t rebound as hoped, EasyJet’s hole will only get deeper, and its plans to grow could be spiked indefinitely. What happens to EasyJet, which had been one of the strongest players in the airline industry before COVID-19, could presage the entire sector’s fate: If EasyJet can’t come back strong, what airline can?

Grounding planes, borrowing money

“We need to focus on the things we can control. Reducing the cost, managing the cash burn, and getting access to liquidity,” Lundgren told CNBC in November. To accomplish that, Lundgren has taken drastic steps. At the end of March 2020, EasyJet grounded its entire fleet. None would fly again until June 15. The company has announced plans to reduce its 15,000-person workforce by 30%. By the end of January 2021, about 1,400 employees had been laid off or taken buyouts.

The company negotiated with trade unions to move more of its pilots and cabin crew on to seasonal contracts, which would allow the company to better match its expenses to periods, such as the summer, when it generated more profit. It moved aircraft maintenance at three of its U.K. airports, which had been contracted out, back in-house. It renegotiated contracts with ground handling firms at several airports helping to lower costs.

These moves enabled EasyJet to reduce its operating costs, excluding fuel, by about 31% in the year through Sept. 30, 2020. The airline also managed to reduce its fuel cost per seat flown by 2.9% through a series of small changes: instructing pilots to use only one engine when taxiing, for example, and to climb to cruising altitude as fast as possible, since level, higher-altitude flying is more fuel-efficient. But these savings barely stanched the arterial bleed of cash gushing from the company’s coffers: In 2019, the airline’s operations had generated more than $1 billion in cash. In 2020, it hemorrhaged the same amount.

Some wondered if Lundgren, who has a reputation for being a nice guy, had the stomach for the kind of aggressive cost cutting that running a budget airline, especially during a pandemic, demanded. “At a budget carrier, you need to be aggressive and ruthless and abrasive,” says Joachim Kotze, an airline industry analyst for financial research firm Morningstar. Kotze compared Lundgren to his rival CEO, Michael O’Leary, who runs Ryanair and has a reputation for being merciless at containing expenses and being generally combative. “He’s running the business to make it as lean as possible, and you can’t be a nice guy and do that,” Kotze says. (Lundgren declined to comment for this article.)

Given EasyJet’s cash burn, it needed to raise more money—and quickly. Many of EasyJet’s competitors in Europe are national flag carriers: Air France, KLM, Lufthansa, SAS, Iberia, TAP Air Portugal, Swiss Air, and British Airways. Although mostly private now, many of these airlines were once state owned, and some still have not insignificant government stakeholdings. There is national pride, not to mention jobs and pension payments, resting on their wings. So when the industry was slammed by COVID-19, government was responsive to pleas for help. Since March 2020, European governments have provided more than $32.2 billion in bailouts to the airline industry, through a mix of grants, loans, and debt-for-equity deals, according to a report from HSBC. “These large airline groups are so big and so important for so many economies that the national governments will do whatever they can to keep them alive,” says Dirk-Maarten Molenaar, a travel and tourism industry consultant at Boston Consulting Group.

For an independent carrier like EasyJet, finding money was more complicated, especially since the U.K. government initially balked at providing the airline industry with a custom bailout package. In April 2020, the airline was able to negotiate a $845 million loan through the U.K. government’s COVID Corporate Finance Facility for large U.K. employers. EasyJet also drew down the entirety of its existing revolving credit facility—raising $500 million in cash. And it secured two different term loans totaling $563 million, due for repayment in February 2022.

Finally, in February 2021, the company took advantage of a sudden uptick in investor confidence on the news that vaccinations in the U.K. might allow international travel to return by late summer. EasyJet raised $1.5 billion by selling seven-year bonds, with a 1.875% annual interest rate. In a sign of faith in EasyJet’s prospects, the bond sale was almost six-times oversubscribed. The company benefits from being one of just four airlines globally that currently have an investment-grade credit rating, according to Gerald Khoo, a transportation analyst with brokerage firm Liberum. (The others are rival budget airlines Ryanair and Wizz Air, as well as Southwest Airlines in the U.S., on which EasyJet originally based its business model.)

Compared to some of its low-cost rivals, EasyJet also owned more of its planes outright. Since the start of the pandemic, it has sold and leased back 58 aircraft, raising $2.1 billion. It now owns just over half its fleet, down from 70% in 2019—and six of every 10 planes it does own have been pledged as collateral against its loans. But the disposition of EasyJet’s fleet would soon reignite a long-simmering feud between EasyJet and its founder.

A fight with the founder

At the same time that it was offloading planes to raise cash and placing others into long-term storage in “boneyards,” the company still took delivery of 14 brand new Airbus A320 and A321 Neos. As a result, it finished 2020 with more aircraft in its fleet than it had at the beginning of the year, despite the pandemic-induced travel doldrums. EasyJet had a long-term contract with the aerospace giant that would require it to take delivery of more than 100 new planes, including at least 55 by 2024. Those planes are Airbus’s most fuel-efficient models, offering operational savings for EasyJet in the long run. But EasyJet’s contract required it to pay the aircraft maker at least $6 billion through 2023—a sum considerably greater than the airline’s entire current market capitalization.

The purchases rankled Haji-Ioannou, who had opposed EasyJet’s tie-up with Airbus ever since it had been signed in 2013. The airline founder’s misgivings had only mounted after the aircraft maker agreed in January 2020 to deferred prosecution agreements with the U.S., France, and the U.K. and to pay billions of dollars in fines stemming from charges that it had for years routinely bribed airline executives to secure contracts.

When the pandemic struck, the aggrieved founder saw an opportunity to force EasyJet to abandon the deal. In March 2020, he wrote to EasyJet’s chairman, John Barton, and demanded the company terminate the contract, citing force majeure. If it failed to do so, he threatened to call a vote to remove one director from the board every seven weeks, until the board acquiesced. He also threatened to sue the airline if its payments to Airbus pushed it toward bankruptcy.

Lundgren and the board were frustrated. The CEO told the Financial Times that Haji-Ioannou’s campaign was “highly undesirable,” “unhelpful,” and a “distraction.” EasyJet pointed out that the contract contained no force majeure clause. What’s more, it included maintenance and avionics support for EasyJet’s existing fleet. The airline couldn’t simply abandon it without jeopardizing any chance of a quick recovery when the crisis ended.

Lundgren also thought the contract made long-term strategic sense. The fuel-efficient jets could help EasyJet reduce its carbon footprint at a time when consumers and governments seemed increasingly likely to hold airlines accountable for their climate impact. Lundgren had been an industry leader in trying to position EasyJet for this new world. The airline began purchasing carbon offsets for the CO2 of all its flights in 2019. “The minute consumers start to make a choice based on this, and I think they will, an emphasis on sustainability will pay off,” says BCG consultant Molenaar, “and EasyJet has been out front in preparing for this.”

When EasyJet’s board did not accede to his demands, Haji-Ioannou carried through on his threat—requesting a special meeting to vote on the removal of board member Andreas Bierwirth, a former Austrian Airlines and Lufthansa executive who Haji-Ioannou termed “a friend of Airbus.” When the board tossed out this request on a technicality, Haji-Ioannou resubmitted his call and asked for the removal of the chief financial officer, Andrew Findlay, too. This time, he succeeded in scheduling a showdown vote for May 22, 2020.

In April 2020, EasyJet announced that it had reached an agreement with Airbus to defer delivery of 24 of the aircraft, meaning it would take on no new aircraft in 2021. It’s not clear what role Haji-Ioannou’s pressure played in this decision. But it was not the same as canceling its contract, and unsurprisingly, Haji-Ioannou was not satisfied. Noting that EasyJet had failed to say exactly how the deferral affected EasyJet’s cash burn, the founder said that EasyJet might have engaged in “market manipulation” by failing to disclose such details and by using overly optimistic forecasts for when the company’s revenues and profits might recover. He added Barton and Lundgren to the list of “scoundrels” he wanted to oust.

Haji-Ioannou kept upping the stakes. He offered a $7 million reward to any “whistleblower” who could provide him “useful information” leading to the cancellation of the Airbus contract. He said he had discovered a secret meeting in Switzerland, arranged by Airbus, between top EasyJet executives and a lawyer who, according to documents revealed in the Panama Papers leak, may have helped clients evade international sanctions through offshore shell companies. Haji-Ioannou insinuated that this was evidence of the corruption he’d long alleged. EasyJet denied this dinner took place. Haji-Ioannou also alleged three large minority EasyJet shareholders—the asset management companies Invesco, Phoenix Asset Management, and Ninety One—were “straw men,” secretly controlled by Airbus, since all three companies manage some of the aerospace giant’s employee pension assets.

But, in the end, Haji-Ioannou’s campaign failed to catch fire with other investors. The three most prominent firms that advise shareholders on how to cast ballots in proxy votes—ISS, Glass Lewis, and Pirc—all recommended against backing his proposals. In the May showdown vote, the disgruntled founder’s effort was roundly defeated, with 99% of the shares not held by the entrepreneur and his family casting ballots against removing the directors. Haji-Ioannou said the result was rigged, arguing that the fund companies with Airbus pension business should have been ineligible to vote.

Barton, EasyJet’s chairman, tried to put the episode behind the company, saying publicly that he hoped EasyJet could reengage constructively with its founder, but that “the negative headlines and publicity has placed unnecessary pressure on a dedicated management team and negatively impacted the reputation of this great British and European brand.” Indeed, though Lundgren’s management team had won the showdown, there were signs of damage. Within weeks of the vote, Findlay, EasyJet’s CFO, announced his intention to step down, and analysts speculated that the stress of Haji-Ioannou’s campaign, on top of that caused by the pandemic, had taken a toll. “It is not helpful to have a shareholder barking up management’s neck the whole time,” Morningstar analyst Kotze says. Findlay said only that after almost six years with EasyJet, “it will be the right time to pass the financial reins to someone who will help take EasyJet into its next chapter,” and Lundgren said he was “sorry to see [Findlay] leave.”

In June, the airline found a deft way to simultaneously relieve the pressure from its cash burn and Haji-Ioannou: It raised more than $631 million to help it weather the pandemic by issuing new shares equivalent to 15% of the company’s outstanding share capital. That move also diluted Haji-Ioannou’s stake in the company’s stock from more than 34% at the beginning of 2019 to just under 30%, making it easier for EasyJet’s board to ignore the demands of its querulous founder. Not that he was going away. In fact, Haji-Ioannou continued to press his allegations that corruption underpinned the Airbus contract, raising the matter at EasyJet’s general meetings in July and December. But at the same time, Haji-Ioannou and his family sold off a portion of their shares, bringing their total holdings to less than 27% of the company by May 2020. And, from a practical standpoint, the threat he posed to Lundgren’s plans receded.

Just a trickle of travel

Having fought off Haji-Ioannou, Lundgren and EasyJet’s C-suite faced other foes they couldn’t control. In mid-May 2020, the company revealed it had been hacked. The attackers stole more than 9 million customers e-mail addresses and travel details and also “accessed” credit and debit card details of more than 2,200 customers. Worse, the company had discovered the hack back in January but hadn’t notified people whose credit card details had been accessed until April, and was only now letting other customers know. That delay exposed EasyJet to greater risk of both hefty fines from Britain’s chief data protection regulator and class-action lawsuits from customers. Today, a year after Easy Jet’s announcement, those perils still hang over the airline.

Front and center was the existential risk of the coronavirus. The airline resumed flying on June 15, 2020, with limited routes within the U.K. and to France. Like all airlines, it instituted new procedures: increased cleaning, mandatory masks for passengers and crew, and no meal service. It hoped these measures allow the public to feel confident flying again. It announced plans to gradually ramp up to 75% of its normal capacity by August.

As it turned out, it wouldn’t need those flights. Budget airlines that rely on the leisure market make most of their money from April to August. In 2020, those months were grim. Hopes for an early summer 2020 recovery were dashed when the U.K. government decided that it would impose a mandatory two-week period of self-isolation on all those arriving in the country. Under pressure from airlines, it later lifted this policy for some European destinations, only to reimpose it as infection rates soared again in Spain and France. From June 15, when EasyJet resumed flying, through September 2020, it carried 9.5 million passengers, compared to 37.1 million in the same period the year before.

Lundgren wasn’t completely despondent: Where bookings were allowed and quarantine rules not restrictive, passengers were coming back. But with new, more infectious variants of COVID-19 spreading rapidly in Europe, in October renewed lockdowns were imposed across many parts of the U.K. and from Helsinki to Tel Aviv. EasyJet announced it had lost more than $1 billion in the 12 months through September 2020. The next quarter was not much better: A U.K.-wide national lockdown was imposed in November and, after a brief easing of restrictions in the run-up to Christmas, again in late December. EasyJet was able to operate at only 18% of its 2019 capacity. For the battered airline, 2020 couldn’t end soon enough.

Beyond budget flying

To understand EasyJet’s prospects, it’s important to understand its strategic positioning. While it is often lumped into the same “European budget airline” category as Dublin-based Ryanair and upstart Hungarian carrier Wizz Air, there are some key differences between EasyJet and those other airlines. “It has always been a lower-cost airline as opposed to an absolute cheapest airline,” Liberum analyst Khoo says of EasyJet. “It has been a value-for-money proposition rather than trying to be the cheapest in the market.”

Ryanair and Wizz Air cater almost exclusively to leisure travelers. They fly into second- and even third-tier airports, where they control a dominant share of the gates and can drive tough bargains on any airport fees and charges for ground crews and baggage handlers. They have focused on expanding into new markets in Eastern Europe. And they are relentlessly focused on keeping per-seat costs down. EasyJet, on the other hand, flies fewer routes but operates from many more primary airports, with a heavier focus on Western Europe. It also offers passenger a few more extras, such as allowing them to check in at the airport without charge (Ryanair charges passengers who don’t check in online) and a loyalty program that confers priority boarding privileges. In this way, it has positioned itself as a more direct competitor to Europe’s traditional airlines.

Lundgren says he wants EasyJet to be the No. 1 or No. 2 airline by market share for each airport it serves. And he’s moved aggressively to grab additional takeoff and landing slots in markets he sees as important. When rival European budget carrier Air Berlin went belly up in 2017, Lundgren spent $48 millionto buy its operations at several German airports and take on 25 of its airplanes. “I’ve always said the four core markets are where we want to put our focus on U.K., Germany, France and Italy,” he told the World Travel Market conference in 2018, shortly after the Air Berlin deal concluded.

But flying to those primary airports in Western Europe is more expensive. As a result, EasyJet occupies a kind of middle ground—in both pricing and costs—among European carriers. In 2019, excluding fuel and in constant currency, it cost EasyJet 4.45 European pennies per available seat kilometer, a key industry cost metric. The same figure for Ryanair was 2.25 pennies, while it was about 5 for British Airways and 5.37 for Air France and KLM. EasyJet’s decision to use its aircraft as collateral for loans it needed to get through the pandemic means that its cost base will be higher going forward, once debt service is included in the calculations, says Savanthi Syth, an airline analyst for brokerage Raymond James & Associates: “They’ve traded liquidity for today in exchange for their aircraft ownership costs going up in the future.”

In practice, this means EasyJet has little chance of beating Ryanair or Wizz head-to-head on routes and pricing. But EasyJet could steal an increasing amount of market share from the legacy full-service carriers. Many of those airlines are limping along on government funding they might never be able to repay, says Leah Ryan, managing director of Alton Aviation, a leading industry consultant.

EasyJet has other advantages over its full-service rivals too. Those airlines are more dependent on business travel, which many analysts forecast might not fully recover from the pandemic until 2024—if it ever recovers at all. Many full-service airlines are locked into hub-and-spoke flight networks that limit their scheduling flexibility, BCG’s Molenaar says. Budget airlines that fly point-to-point, such as EasyJet, can easily stimulate their demand by running price promotions and advertising and then shifting flight schedules to cover those new bookings. “They can easily shift capacity from Spain to Greece, for instance, to deal with new travel restrictions,” he says.

Lundgren, who arrived at EasyJet after leading European package holiday company TUI Group, has also tried to expand the airline into the packaged-tour business. EasyJet’s new holiday division launched in December 2019, just months before the pandemic took hold. Yet Lundgren says his strategy is still valid, telling trade publication Travel Weekly that “holidays are going to lead the recovery.” Liberum analyst Khoo says the move into packaged holidays made strategic sense. “Given that they were doing almost nothing before, there is a big opportunity to move from zero to something,” he says of the holiday tours. But in the past, he says, most budget airlines have fallen down on execution, unable to make package holidays a profit-driver.

Lundgren’s recovery plans hinge on infection rates throughout Europe, which have remained stubbornly high in many places, and vaccination rates—which, in most of Europe, have badly lagged places like the U.S., U.K., and Israel. At the end of January, EasyJet announced that it had secured another $1.9 billion through a five-year loan, secured against its aircraft. That loan would buy EasyJet some more time. And the company continued to insist it saw the opportunity for wins amid the travel industry’s carnage: Europe’s legacy carriers were hurting even worse than EasyJet, which offered the discount airline a chance to gain new flight slots at key airports in Paris, Milan, London Gatwick, and Geneva.

The airline’s hopes for summer 2021, like those of almost all airlines, rest on vaccinations. The U.K. is doing well: It had approved two vaccines—one from Pfizer and one from AstraZeneca—in December and a third, from Moderna, in early January; by mid-May it had given 68% of the adult population at least one shot. Ryanair had even tried to capitalize on this connection between vaccinations and travel in its marketing, rolling out at “jab and go” advertising slogan in January, which it had to withdraw after objections from Britain’s Advertising Standards Authority that it was not promoting responsible behavior. Still, the connection was critical for airlines. “The pace of recovery will be determined by vaccination rates,” Alton Aviation’s Ryan says.

The problem for EasyJet is that almost all the routes it flies involve Europe, and the continent was lagging far behind on vaccinations. By mid-May, most of the major European nations had administered first doses to just over a third of adults amid critical vaccine supply shortages and concerns about rare but dangerous blood clots linked to AstraZeneca’s and Johnson & Johnson’s vaccines.

Without a brisker vaccination pace, a third wave of infections keeps threatening to take hold in Europe. Meanwhile, the U.K. has announced international travel will resume as of May 17, but will operate according to a “traffic light system,” with arrivals from red-, yellow-, or green-designated countries subject to different requirements. Of popular holiday destinations, only Portugal and Gibraltar were put on the initial green list, with no requirement to self-isolate upon return. Most of Europe was in the yellow category, requiring 10 days of self-isolation when coming back, and with the U.K. government still advising against leisure travel. And at least one key holiday locale—Turkey—wound up on the red list, meaning those traveling there would have to quarantine in a hotel for 10 days.

Taken together, those restrictions mean that summer 2021 is looking increasingly in doubt.

Lundgren complains that the British government’s travel rules remain too onerous. The U.K. requires even those returning from “green” countries take COVID-19 tests before boarding a plane to return to the U.K. as well as within two days of returning. And the government has said the second of these has to be a more accurate PCR test, which can cost as much as £219 ($302) per passenger. In essence, Lundgren told the BBC, this means only the rich can go on holidays: The expense of these tests would be “way over and above what the cost is of an average EasyJet fare,” he said. The airline cut a deal with a health care company to provide the test at half the normal cost, or £60 per test. That’s better, but still a big burden on, say, a family of four. With so much uncertainty, leisure travelers are holding off on booking summer flights, prolonging easyJet’s pain.

Playing the blues

In a vast hangar on the outskirts of Gatwick Airport, one of EasyJet’s big hubs, sit a row of five space-age pods, painted in EasyJet’s trademark orange-and-white colors. Each stands elevated on hydraulically controlled legs, with doors reached by a short metal staircase. These are flight simulators that recreate the exact cockpit of an Airbus A320 aircraft. It is here that EasyJet’s pilots practice and maintain their skills. And the simulators have been kept busy virtually around the clock, even during the pandemic, as EasyJet has sought to keep its pilots properly certified so they will be ready when flying returns.

But the training center is the only part of EasyJet’s operation at Gatwick still humming. Out on the tarmac, a short distance from the simulators, almost a dozen real EasyJet A320s sit idle. Where normally there would be the roar of engines and the trundling rumble of buses and baggage carts, the whistling wind is often the only sound.

It was enough to make any airline CEO play the blues. In an interview with London’s Evening Standard newspaper in January, Lundgren sounded down, admitting he missed frequent trips to the Spanish island of Majorca, where he owns a house and where he and a friend also own a recording studio. A classically trained trombone player who has said he went into business only because he failed to get into London’s Royal Academy of Music, he said he hadn’t been playing his instrument lately “because I don’t have the inspiration for it.” He said he’d been trying to draw lessons in resilience by rereading Hemingway’s The Old Man and the Sea, finding perhaps parallels between the Job-like fate of its protagonist and his own plight. “It is about a man who faces challenge after challenge but he keeps his mood and rises up again,” Lundgren told the newspaper. “It helps to remember that while you can’t control what happens to you, you can always control your response. Feeling powerless is one of the worst feelings, not just in business.”

EasyJet’s powerless plight is typical of the entire industry’s. As hard as it has tried to inoculate itself against the pressures of the pandemic and to convince passengers it will be safe to fly, its fate remains up in the air, subject to unexpected and unwelcome turbulence.

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