美國(guó)關(guān)店潮遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束，預(yù)計(jì)到2026年將達(dá)8萬(wàn)家
PHIL WAHBA
2021-04-07
過(guò)去幾年，美國(guó)零售商已宣布關(guān)閉了無(wú)數(shù)家門(mén)店，目前關(guān)店潮仍在持續(xù)。在周一發(fā)布的一份研究報(bào)告中，瑞銀（UBS）預(yù)測(cè)，到2026年，美國(guó)還將有8萬(wàn)家零售店永久關(guān)閉，約占目前零售店總數(shù)的9%。
該預(yù)測(cè)所依據(jù)的假設(shè)是：屆時(shí)，電商銷(xiāo)售額在零售總額中的占比將從目前的18%（已比預(yù)期高出幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）躍升至27%。
“此次新冠疫情有一個(gè)持久影響，即網(wǎng)絡(luò)普及率急劇上升，”零售業(yè)股票分析師邁克爾?拉瑟在一份為客戶(hù)出具的長(zhǎng)達(dá)94頁(yè)的研究報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道。“我們預(yù)計(jì)，這一趨勢(shì)仍將持續(xù)，并將會(huì)推動(dòng)零售店進(jìn)一步合理布局?！?/p>
一些大型零售商的財(cái)報(bào)證實(shí)了拉瑟的說(shuō)法。諾德斯特龍 (Nordstrom）在假期季度的線上銷(xiāo)售額占其銷(xiāo)售總額的54%，而梅西百貨（Macy's）則為44%。蓋璞集團(tuán)（Gap Inc.）表示，最近一個(gè)財(cái)年，電商業(yè)務(wù)占比近一半。說(shuō)到蓋璞，該公司在新冠疫情引起的動(dòng)蕩期間關(guān)閉了其多家連鎖店，因?yàn)槠漕A(yù)計(jì)至少有一半業(yè)務(wù)很快就會(huì)永久性地轉(zhuǎn)到線上。
瑞銀預(yù)測(cè)，服裝零售商關(guān)閉的門(mén)店將最多，約21,000家，其中多數(shù)在室內(nèi)購(gòu)物中心。（此次關(guān)店潮對(duì)大型商場(chǎng)的零售商并無(wú)太大影響。）
其次是8,000家消費(fèi)類(lèi)電子產(chǎn)品門(mén)店，以及7,000家家具門(mén)店。這兩類(lèi)產(chǎn)品的銷(xiāo)售額總體呈增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，但線上銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)高于零售門(mén)店。疫情期間的大贏家百思買(mǎi)（Best Buy）最近宣布，將縮減其門(mén)店的銷(xiāo)售區(qū)，以便為電商業(yè)務(wù)提供更多空間。
塔吉特（Target）和沃爾瑪（Walmart）等大型百貨零售商并未關(guān)閉商店，部分原因是他們已經(jīng)全面調(diào)整了其實(shí)體店位置，既便于線上訂單的配送，又便于買(mǎi)家取貨。
2019年，零售企業(yè)破產(chǎn)及門(mén)店關(guān)閉數(shù)量創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄，共有9,832家門(mén)店關(guān)閉，之后，關(guān)店潮仍在繼續(xù)。2020年，有8,741家門(mén)店關(guān)閉，到目前為止，2021年已有3,169家門(mén)店關(guān)閉。但又有數(shù)千家新店開(kāi)業(yè)，標(biāo)志著零售業(yè)革新的開(kāi)始。開(kāi)設(shè)新店的零售商包括一元店（dollar stores）等連鎖店，以及在大型商場(chǎng)內(nèi)設(shè)有門(mén)店的一些品牌零售商，包括迪克體育用品（Dick’s Sporting Goods），美妝連鎖店Ulta Beauty等等。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
翻譯：郝秀
審校：汪皓
過(guò)去幾年，美國(guó)零售商已宣布關(guān)閉了無(wú)數(shù)家門(mén)店，目前關(guān)店潮仍在持續(xù)。在周一發(fā)布的一份研究報(bào)告中，瑞銀（UBS）預(yù)測(cè)，到2026年，美國(guó)還將有8萬(wàn)家零售店永久關(guān)閉，約占目前零售店總數(shù)的9%。
該預(yù)測(cè)所依據(jù)的假設(shè)是：屆時(shí)，電商銷(xiāo)售額在零售總額中的占比將從目前的18%（已比預(yù)期高出幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）躍升至27%。
“此次新冠疫情有一個(gè)持久影響，即網(wǎng)絡(luò)普及率急劇上升，”零售業(yè)股票分析師邁克爾?拉瑟在一份為客戶(hù)出具的長(zhǎng)達(dá)94頁(yè)的研究報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道。“我們預(yù)計(jì)，這一趨勢(shì)仍將持續(xù)，并將會(huì)推動(dòng)零售店進(jìn)一步合理布局?！?/p>
一些大型零售商的財(cái)報(bào)證實(shí)了拉瑟的說(shuō)法。諾德斯特龍 (Nordstrom）在假期季度的線上銷(xiāo)售額占其銷(xiāo)售總額的54%，而梅西百貨（Macy's）則為44%。蓋璞集團(tuán)（Gap Inc.）表示，最近一個(gè)財(cái)年，電商業(yè)務(wù)占比近一半。說(shuō)到蓋璞，該公司在新冠疫情引起的動(dòng)蕩期間關(guān)閉了其多家連鎖店，因?yàn)槠漕A(yù)計(jì)至少有一半業(yè)務(wù)很快就會(huì)永久性地轉(zhuǎn)到線上。
瑞銀預(yù)測(cè)，服裝零售商關(guān)閉的門(mén)店將最多，約21,000家，其中多數(shù)在室內(nèi)購(gòu)物中心。（此次關(guān)店潮對(duì)大型商場(chǎng)的零售商并無(wú)太大影響。）
其次是8,000家消費(fèi)類(lèi)電子產(chǎn)品門(mén)店，以及7,000家家具門(mén)店。這兩類(lèi)產(chǎn)品的銷(xiāo)售額總體呈增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，但線上銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)高于零售門(mén)店。疫情期間的大贏家百思買(mǎi)（Best Buy）最近宣布，將縮減其門(mén)店的銷(xiāo)售區(qū)，以便為電商業(yè)務(wù)提供更多空間。
塔吉特（Target）和沃爾瑪（Walmart）等大型百貨零售商并未關(guān)閉商店，部分原因是他們已經(jīng)全面調(diào)整了其實(shí)體店位置，既便于線上訂單的配送，又便于買(mǎi)家取貨。
2019年，零售企業(yè)破產(chǎn)及門(mén)店關(guān)閉數(shù)量創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄，共有9,832家門(mén)店關(guān)閉，之后，關(guān)店潮仍在繼續(xù)。2020年，有8,741家門(mén)店關(guān)閉，到目前為止，2021年已有3,169家門(mén)店關(guān)閉。但又有數(shù)千家新店開(kāi)業(yè)，標(biāo)志著零售業(yè)革新的開(kāi)始。開(kāi)設(shè)新店的零售商包括一元店（dollar stores）等連鎖店，以及在大型商場(chǎng)內(nèi)設(shè)有門(mén)店的一些品牌零售商，包括迪克體育用品（Dick’s Sporting Goods），美妝連鎖店Ulta Beauty等等。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
翻譯：郝秀
審校：汪皓
Even though the past few years have brought countless announcements of store closings, U.S. retailers should brace for much more to come. In a research note published on Monday, UBS forecast that some 80,000 retail stores, or roughly 9% of the current total, will shut their doors permanently by 2026.
The forecast is based on the assumption that e-commerce as a percentage of total retail sales jumps to 27%—up from 18% now, which is already several percentage points higher than had been expected by this time.
“An enduring legacy of the pandemic is that online penetration rose sharply,” retail equity analyst Michael Lasser writes in the 94-page research note to clients. “We expect that it will continue to increase, which will drive further rationalization of retail stores.”
Financial results from some major retailers support Lasser’s assertion. Nordstrom got 54% of its sales online in the holiday quarter, while Macy’s generated 44% that way. Gap Inc. said e-commerce represented nearly half its business in its most recent fiscal year. Speaking of Gap, the company took advantage of the COVID-19 turmoil to close many stores in its namesake chain, betting that at least half of the brand’s business will soon move online for good.
UBS predicted that apparel retailers would account for the biggest chunk of store closings, with 21,000 of the total, much of that happening in indoor shopping malls. (Retailers in strip malls have been largely shielded from the recent carnage.)
Next are consumer electronics with 8,000 likely-to-close locations, and home furnishings with 7,000. Both those categories are growing overall but seeing a faster proportion of their sales go online than retail in general. Best Buy, a big winner during the pandemic, recently announced it would shrink some of the sales floors at its stores so that more space could be used for servicing e-commerce orders.
General merchandise big-box retailers like Target and Walmart are not closing stores, in part because they have overhauled their physical locations to enable filling online orders and letting shoppers retrieve orders there.
While 2019 was the high-water mark for U.S. closings, with 9,832 during a record year for retail bankruptcies, they have continued since then. After 8,741 closings last year, some 3,169 have shuttered so far in 2021. But in a sign of retail’s reinvention, several thousand new locations have opened. Chains that have added stores include dollar stores and some brands that are fixtures in strip malls, including Dick’s Sporting Goods and Ulta Beauty.
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