跌至谷底的利率對(duì)抵押貸款的再融資來說是再好不過的事情。然而,如果你希望通過自身的資產(chǎn)組合來獲取收益,那么光有低利率是不夠的。
利率在過去6個(gè)月中一直在穩(wěn)步上升,但從歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看,卻依然處于低位。在當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下,傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)質(zhì)債券的回報(bào)也無法讓所有人為之動(dòng)心。
與此同時(shí),《財(cái)富》雜志最近的一份報(bào)告概述了如果利率大幅上升,到2028年初,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)將如何實(shí)現(xiàn)0%的回報(bào)率。這對(duì)尋求創(chuàng)收投資的投資者提出了獨(dú)特的挑戰(zhàn)。
在一篇名為《收益探尋》的新報(bào)道中,LPL Financial公司的股票策略師杰夫·布奇班德重點(diǎn)提到了三個(gè)重要的股票投資理念,這些理念有望在這個(gè)收益率不斷增長的環(huán)境中獲得良好的表現(xiàn)。該報(bào)告將股票而不是債券作為首選,而得到低利率支持的股票是公司2021年最具說服力的推薦之一。
LPL的分析師認(rèn)為潛力存在于以下領(lǐng)域。
1. 能源
基于2020年的派息,能源領(lǐng)域當(dāng)前的收益率為5%,在標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的各大領(lǐng)域居于榜首。布奇班德的報(bào)告顯示,LPL Financial對(duì)能源領(lǐng)域投資高漲的樂觀情緒受到了多個(gè)因素的影響。
布奇班德稱,有鑒于新冠疫苗接種在美國和國外的大量鋪開,在接下來的一年,經(jīng)濟(jì)將有望完全重啟,而且旅行也有望回歸。這一現(xiàn)象將有可能為能源領(lǐng)域帶來巨大的利好。
在《財(cái)富》雜志最近的一個(gè)報(bào)告中,Makor Capital Markets SA的史蒂芬·芭比爾·德拉色瑞稱,油氣股票的回報(bào)在今后將一馬當(dāng)先,與布奇班德的展望一致。
此外,布奇班德的分析預(yù)計(jì),原油價(jià)格在今年年底之前將維持在每桶55美元至60美元的價(jià)格區(qū)間。“足夠該行業(yè)維持較高的收益率,其價(jià)格有望在年初至今17%的增幅基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)上揚(yáng)。”
投資能源并非沒有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),由于原油市場在去年出現(xiàn)了較大的波動(dòng),而且替代能源市場正處于上行階段,尤其是在美國新政府希望逐漸棄用石油的情況下更是如此。因此,就像布奇班德寫的那樣,這一領(lǐng)域“可能更多的是一種中期操作,而非長線投資。”
2. 銀行
在去年8月,《財(cái)富》雜志介紹了為什么銀行股在新冠疫情期間“看起來是不二的選擇”:“我們可以想象,在美國其他商業(yè)均出現(xiàn)反彈的情況下,銀行業(yè)想不同步反彈都難。”
上述結(jié)論還是6個(gè)月之前發(fā)布的,《探尋收益》報(bào)告稱,盡管從收益角度來講,從銀行股切入可能會(huì)令人感到吃驚,但銀行并沒有債券附帶的利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
布奇班德寫道:“從歷史上來講,銀行股呈現(xiàn)出了與利率的正相關(guān)(隨著收益的上升,銀行股傾向于跑贏大盤)。銀行股還可能會(huì)呈現(xiàn)出陡峭的收益曲線,也就是長期利率的增速高于短期利率。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)加速的恢復(fù),我們預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年剩余的時(shí)間里見證這一現(xiàn)象。”
隨著美國疫苗接種的持續(xù)開展,以及越發(fā)接近經(jīng)濟(jì)的完全重啟,經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)很快會(huì)出現(xiàn)。《財(cái)富》雜志與布奇班德的報(bào)告顯示,這一點(diǎn)對(duì)于金融領(lǐng)域的盈利能力來說是一個(gè)利好。
《財(cái)富》雜志的記者肖恩·塔利回憶道:“投資者認(rèn)為銀行很少出現(xiàn)問題。如果它們能夠異軍突起,那么它們將成為市場的大贏家。”
3. 銀行貸款
利率今后潛在的波動(dòng)性對(duì)于投資者來說是一種正常的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。布奇班德認(rèn)為,對(duì)尋求降低利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資者來說,考慮到經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的改善和有限的利率敏感度,銀行貸款“可能是一個(gè)極具吸引力的選項(xiàng)”。LPL公司 2月的全球資產(chǎn)組合策略報(bào)告稱,銀行貸款是由低于投資級(jí)別的公司發(fā)放的貸款,用于短期融資目的,比短期債務(wù)的收益更高,而且有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
這是因?yàn)椋缦旅娴臄?shù)據(jù)顯示的那樣,銀行貸款提供的潛在收益率在4%的區(qū)間,而且其利率敏感性非常低。銀行貸款現(xiàn)在十分搶眼,就單位利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益而言在固定收益領(lǐng)域處于首要地位。
布奇班德寫道,因此,“對(duì)于在可能的利率上升周期開始階段求降低利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資者來說,銀行貸款提供的收益方案相對(duì)于其他固定收益替代方案更有吸引力。”散戶投資者可以通過購買持有上述類型銀行貸款的共有基金的股份,非常便利地投資這一領(lǐng)域。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
跌至谷底的利率對(duì)抵押貸款的再融資來說是再好不過的事情。然而,如果你希望通過自身的資產(chǎn)組合來獲取收益,那么光有低利率是不夠的。
利率在過去6個(gè)月中一直在穩(wěn)步上升,但從歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看,卻依然處于低位。在當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下,傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)質(zhì)債券的回報(bào)也無法讓所有人為之動(dòng)心。
與此同時(shí),《財(cái)富》雜志最近的一份報(bào)告概述了如果利率大幅上升,到2028年初,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)將如何實(shí)現(xiàn)0%的回報(bào)率。這對(duì)尋求創(chuàng)收投資的投資者提出了獨(dú)特的挑戰(zhàn)。
在一篇名為《收益探尋》的新報(bào)道中,LPL Financial公司的股票策略師杰夫·布奇班德重點(diǎn)提到了三個(gè)重要的股票投資理念,這些理念有望在這個(gè)收益率不斷增長的環(huán)境中獲得良好的表現(xiàn)。該報(bào)告將股票而不是債券作為首選,而得到低利率支持的股票是公司2021年最具說服力的推薦之一。
LPL的分析師認(rèn)為潛力存在于以下領(lǐng)域。
1. 能源
基于2020年的派息,能源領(lǐng)域當(dāng)前的收益率為5%,在標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的各大領(lǐng)域居于榜首。布奇班德的報(bào)告顯示,LPL Financial對(duì)能源領(lǐng)域投資高漲的樂觀情緒受到了多個(gè)因素的影響。
布奇班德稱,有鑒于新冠疫苗接種在美國和國外的大量鋪開,在接下來的一年,經(jīng)濟(jì)將有望完全重啟,而且旅行也有望回歸。這一現(xiàn)象將有可能為能源領(lǐng)域帶來巨大的利好。
在《財(cái)富》雜志最近的一個(gè)報(bào)告中,Makor Capital Markets SA的史蒂芬·芭比爾·德拉色瑞稱,油氣股票的回報(bào)在今后將一馬當(dāng)先,與布奇班德的展望一致。
此外,布奇班德的分析預(yù)計(jì),原油價(jià)格在今年年底之前將維持在每桶55美元至60美元的價(jià)格區(qū)間。“足夠該行業(yè)維持較高的收益率,其價(jià)格有望在年初至今17%的增幅基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)上揚(yáng)。”
投資能源并非沒有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),由于原油市場在去年出現(xiàn)了較大的波動(dòng),而且替代能源市場正處于上行階段,尤其是在美國新政府希望逐漸棄用石油的情況下更是如此。因此,就像布奇班德寫的那樣,這一領(lǐng)域“可能更多的是一種中期操作,而非長線投資。”
2. 銀行
在去年8月,《財(cái)富》雜志介紹了為什么銀行股在新冠疫情期間“看起來是不二的選擇”:“我們可以想象,在美國其他商業(yè)均出現(xiàn)反彈的情況下,銀行業(yè)想不同步反彈都難。”
上述結(jié)論還是6個(gè)月之前發(fā)布的,《探尋收益》報(bào)告稱,盡管從收益角度來講,從銀行股切入可能會(huì)令人感到吃驚,但銀行并沒有債券附帶的利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
布奇班德寫道:“從歷史上來講,銀行股呈現(xiàn)出了與利率的正相關(guān)(隨著收益的上升,銀行股傾向于跑贏大盤)。銀行股還可能會(huì)呈現(xiàn)出陡峭的收益曲線,也就是長期利率的增速高于短期利率。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)加速的恢復(fù),我們預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年剩余的時(shí)間里見證這一現(xiàn)象。”
隨著美國疫苗接種的持續(xù)開展,以及越發(fā)接近經(jīng)濟(jì)的完全重啟,經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)很快會(huì)出現(xiàn)。《財(cái)富》雜志與布奇班德的報(bào)告顯示,這一點(diǎn)對(duì)于金融領(lǐng)域的盈利能力來說是一個(gè)利好。
《財(cái)富》雜志的記者肖恩·塔利回憶道:“投資者認(rèn)為銀行很少出現(xiàn)問題。如果它們能夠異軍突起,那么它們將成為市場的大贏家。”
3. 銀行貸款
利率今后潛在的波動(dòng)性對(duì)于投資者來說是一種正常的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。布奇班德認(rèn)為,對(duì)尋求降低利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資者來說,考慮到經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的改善和有限的利率敏感度,銀行貸款“可能是一個(gè)極具吸引力的選項(xiàng)”。LPL公司 2月的全球資產(chǎn)組合策略報(bào)告稱,銀行貸款是由低于投資級(jí)別的公司發(fā)放的貸款,用于短期融資目的,比短期債務(wù)的收益更高,而且有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
這是因?yàn)椋缦旅娴臄?shù)據(jù)顯示的那樣,銀行貸款提供的潛在收益率在4%的區(qū)間,而且其利率敏感性非常低。銀行貸款現(xiàn)在十分搶眼,就單位利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益而言在固定收益領(lǐng)域處于首要地位。
布奇班德寫道,因此,“對(duì)于在可能的利率上升周期開始階段求降低利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資者來說,銀行貸款提供的收益方案相對(duì)于其他固定收益替代方案更有吸引力。”散戶投資者可以通過購買持有上述類型銀行貸款的共有基金的股份,非常便利地投資這一領(lǐng)域。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
Rock bottom interest rates are terrific if you are, say, refinancing a mortgage. But if you're looking for income from your portfolio? Not so much.
In the current economic environment, in which interest rates have been steadily rising over the last six months but remain low by historical standards, traditional high-quality bonds aren't exactly blowing anyone away with their returns.
Meanwhile a recent Fortune report outlined how the S&P 500 could return 0% through early 2028 if interest rates rise significantly. This presents unique challenges to investors looking for income-generating investments.
In a new report titled “The Search for Income,” Jeff Buchbinder, Equity Strategist for LPL Financial, highlights three key equity income ideas expected to perform well in a rising income rate environment. The report emphasizes a preference for stocks over bonds, which— supported by low interest rates— is one of the company’s “highest conviction recommendations for 2021.
Here's where LPL's analysts see potential.
1. Energy
The energy sector currently yields about 5% based on dividends in 2020, topping all S&P 500 sectors. According to Buchbinder’s report, there are several factors impacting LPL Financial’s increased optimism in investments into the energy sector.
With vaccine rollouts well underway in the United States and abroad, a fully reopened economy and a return to travel is expected in the coming year, which will likely benefit the energy sector in a big way, according to Buchbinder.
In a recent report in Fortune, Stephane Barbier de la Serre of Makor Capital Markets SA said that among others, oil and gas equities will lead returns going forward, echoing Buchbinder’s outlook.
Additionally, Buchbinder’s analysis expects oil prices at least to hold steady in the $55-60 per barrel range for the remainder of the year, “sufficient for the sector to maintain rich yields while potentially seeing some additional price appreciation—on top of the 17% year-to-date gain.”
Investing in energy is not without risk, as oil markets have proven over the last year to be volatile, and the market for alternative energy is on the rise, especially under a new administration that’s looking to move away from oil. Thus, as Buchbinder writes, this “may be more of a medium-term trade than a long-term investment.”
2. Banks
Back in August, Fortune outlined why bank stocks “l(fā)ooked like great buys” in the pandemic market: “It's hard to imagine a recovery where the banks don't rebound in lockstep with the rest of American business.”
That was six months ago, and while banks may come as a surprising entry as an income idea, banks do not carry the interest rate risk that bonds do, according to “The Search for Income.”
“Historically, bank stocks have exhibited positive correlation to interest rates (the stocks have tended to outperform as yields have risen)” wrote Buchbinder. “Bank stocks also tend to like a steepening yield curve—long-term interest rates rise faster than short-term rates—which we expect to see over the balance of 2021 as the economic recovery gains steam.”
And as the country continues to progress in distributing vaccines and inches closer to a fully reopened economy, an economic recovery is inbound. This should bode well for the profitability of the financials sector, according to Fortune and Buchbinder’s report.
Or, as Fortune's Shawn Tully memorably put it: “Investors think that banks are dogs that can barely waddle,” he wrote. “If they just manage to stroll, they'll rank among the market's big winners.”
3. Bank Loans
The potential volatility of interest rates moving forward presents a legitimate risk for investors. Buchbinder suggests that bank loans “may be an attractive option due to the improving economic environment and limited rate sensitivity” for investors looking to limit interest rate risk. Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short-term debt and involve risk, according to LPL's February Global Portfolio Strategy report.
This is because, as seen in the figure below, bank loans offer potential yields in the 4% range with very low interest rate sensitivity. Bank loans clearly stand out in the chart below, which ranks the major fixed income sectors by income per unit of interest rate risk.
Thus, “bank loans provide an attractive income option relative to other fixed income alternatives for investors looking to limit interest rate risk at the beginning of a possible rising rate cycle,” Buchbinder wrote. Individual investors can most easily access the sector by buying shares in a mutual fund that pools bank loans, such as these.