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新冠疫情終結(jié)城市化進(jìn)程?大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)!

Peter Kern
2021-03-19

即便在最黑暗的時(shí)期,人們對(duì)大都市文化、社區(qū)和智慧頭腦的渴望也持續(xù)存在。

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一些人聲稱新冠病毒終結(jié)了城市旅行,但他們錯(cuò)了。圖片來(lái)源:NOAM GALAI—GETTY IMAGES

自新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),人們身邊充斥著危言聳聽(tīng)的新聞,還有批評(píng)現(xiàn)有文明終結(jié)的言論。高管和金融專家大膽宣稱,一旦疫情得到控制、疫苗普及之后,人們將繼續(xù)生活在遠(yuǎn)郊,繼續(xù)網(wǎng)購(gòu)、在家做飯、跟朋友和同事在線聯(lián)系,不會(huì)聚集在大城市里。

當(dāng)然,宣稱人類行為將永久性改變很吸引眼球,但它忽略了人類的既往歷史。人類曾經(jīng)從戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、瘟疫、疾病和流行病中幸存,然后一直堅(jiān)定地向城市化邁進(jìn)。

我們正在經(jīng)歷的全球健康危機(jī)很嚴(yán)重,影響深遠(yuǎn),然而真有人會(huì)相信此次疫情能夠超越以前的所有挑戰(zhàn),從根本上改變?nèi)祟惐拘詥幔?/p>

人類是群居動(dòng)物,不適合離群索居。與他人保持密切關(guān)系對(duì)人們的心理健康乃至最終生存都至關(guān)重要。疫情期間全世界的抑郁和焦慮情緒都在上升,原因正是我們都很想念彼此,想念互動(dòng)和自然相處,還有群體提供的能量。雖然Zoom和各種視頻會(huì)議應(yīng)用程序很強(qiáng)大,未來(lái)肯定也很重要,但無(wú)法取代也不能抑制人類對(duì)聯(lián)系的需要。

最近關(guān)于旅游業(yè)的預(yù)測(cè)不少,僅在2019年旅游業(yè)就為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)造了2.6萬(wàn)億美元收入,支撐了1580萬(wàn)個(gè)崗位。其中最狡猾的說(shuō)法是,今后多年里人們都不會(huì)返回城市,甚至可能永遠(yuǎn)不返回。簡(jiǎn)直荒謬。(Expedia集團(tuán)的主要業(yè)務(wù)是旅游預(yù)訂,將因?yàn)槌鞘新糜畏磸検芤?。?/p>

我以前住的地方離世貿(mào)中心(World Trade Center)大約20個(gè)街區(qū)?!?·11”事件后,人們普遍擔(dān)心紐約市無(wú)法恢復(fù),旅游業(yè)的好日子也一去不返。大規(guī)模人口外流的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)滲透到曼哈頓的每個(gè)角落。

顯然,我們都知道后來(lái)的真實(shí)情況。居民和企業(yè)都回去了。紐約市的房地產(chǎn)蓬勃發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁、外來(lái)移民增加,是的,旅游業(yè)也創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。

人們總有理由回到城市。商業(yè)和工作是重要的吸引力,不過(guò)人才是核心。即便在最黑暗的時(shí)期,人們對(duì)大都市文化、社區(qū)和智慧頭腦的渴望也持續(xù)存在。

實(shí)際上,自工業(yè)革命(Industrial Revolution)以來(lái),盡管出現(xiàn)過(guò)破壞性的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和疫病,人們還是逐漸涌向城市。聯(lián)合國(guó)(UN)的一份報(bào)告顯示,在1950年至2018年期間,全球的城市人口增長(zhǎng)了四倍,2007年,城市人口的數(shù)量首次超過(guò)了農(nóng)村人口。

2019年的一項(xiàng)研究顯示,70%的美國(guó)家庭自稱生態(tài)家庭。我們知道很多城市都非常重視可持續(xù)發(fā)展,很適合步行,也注重提高移動(dòng)便利性和整合交通減少排放。如果認(rèn)為歷史上最關(guān)心環(huán)保的一代人會(huì)突然放棄價(jià)值觀,在恐慌時(shí)刻搬到郊區(qū),那實(shí)在是想得太多了。

除此之外,城市將始終是旅游的重要核心,既可以是目的地,也能夠當(dāng)樞紐。

在疫情爆發(fā)之前,歐睿國(guó)際(Euromonitor International)就發(fā)現(xiàn),最受歡迎的入境目的地不出所料地是曼谷、巴黎和倫敦等城市。Expedia集團(tuán)(Expedia Group)也發(fā)現(xiàn)人們對(duì)城市旅游持續(xù)抱有興趣。截至今年3月,從Expedia.com網(wǎng)站的航班預(yù)訂來(lái)看,人們已經(jīng)計(jì)劃返回城市,洛杉磯、西雅圖,當(dāng)然還有紐約市,都在2021年6月至8月十大最受歡迎的旅游目的地之列。

多虧全球科學(xué)界努力研究,多種有效疫苗都在生產(chǎn)中,還有更多的新疫苗即將問(wèn)世。生活一定會(huì)重啟,就像世界各地的人們渴望劇場(chǎng)、博物館、美食、熙熙攘攘、欣賞城市美麗和規(guī)模一樣。人們將在全世界穿梭,住酒店。從某種意義上說(shuō),旅行者將重新感受生命的活力。全球復(fù)興就在不遠(yuǎn)處,歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,首先感受到復(fù)蘇的正是城市。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

彼得·克恩是Expedia集團(tuán)副董事長(zhǎng)兼首席執(zhí)行官。

譯者:夏林

自新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái),人們身邊充斥著危言聳聽(tīng)的新聞,還有批評(píng)現(xiàn)有文明終結(jié)的言論。高管和金融專家大膽宣稱,一旦疫情得到控制、疫苗普及之后,人們將繼續(xù)生活在遠(yuǎn)郊,繼續(xù)網(wǎng)購(gòu)、在家做飯、跟朋友和同事在線聯(lián)系,不會(huì)聚集在大城市里。

當(dāng)然,宣稱人類行為將永久性改變很吸引眼球,但它忽略了人類的既往歷史。人類曾經(jīng)從戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、瘟疫、疾病和流行病中幸存,然后一直堅(jiān)定地向城市化邁進(jìn)。

我們正在經(jīng)歷的全球健康危機(jī)很嚴(yán)重,影響深遠(yuǎn),然而真有人會(huì)相信此次疫情能夠超越以前的所有挑戰(zhàn),從根本上改變?nèi)祟惐拘詥幔?/p>

人類是群居動(dòng)物,不適合離群索居。與他人保持密切關(guān)系對(duì)人們的心理健康乃至最終生存都至關(guān)重要。疫情期間全世界的抑郁和焦慮情緒都在上升,原因正是我們都很想念彼此,想念互動(dòng)和自然相處,還有群體提供的能量。雖然Zoom和各種視頻會(huì)議應(yīng)用程序很強(qiáng)大,未來(lái)肯定也很重要,但無(wú)法取代也不能抑制人類對(duì)聯(lián)系的需要。

最近關(guān)于旅游業(yè)的預(yù)測(cè)不少,僅在2019年旅游業(yè)就為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)造了2.6萬(wàn)億美元收入,支撐了1580萬(wàn)個(gè)崗位。其中最狡猾的說(shuō)法是,今后多年里人們都不會(huì)返回城市,甚至可能永遠(yuǎn)不返回。簡(jiǎn)直荒謬。(Expedia集團(tuán)的主要業(yè)務(wù)是旅游預(yù)訂,將因?yàn)槌鞘新糜畏磸検芤?。?/p>

我以前住的地方離世貿(mào)中心(World Trade Center)大約20個(gè)街區(qū)?!?·11”事件后,人們普遍擔(dān)心紐約市無(wú)法恢復(fù),旅游業(yè)的好日子也一去不返。大規(guī)模人口外流的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)滲透到曼哈頓的每個(gè)角落。

顯然,我們都知道后來(lái)的真實(shí)情況。居民和企業(yè)都回去了。紐約市的房地產(chǎn)蓬勃發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁、外來(lái)移民增加,是的,旅游業(yè)也創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。

人們總有理由回到城市。商業(yè)和工作是重要的吸引力,不過(guò)人才是核心。即便在最黑暗的時(shí)期,人們對(duì)大都市文化、社區(qū)和智慧頭腦的渴望也持續(xù)存在。

實(shí)際上,自工業(yè)革命(Industrial Revolution)以來(lái),盡管出現(xiàn)過(guò)破壞性的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和疫病,人們還是逐漸涌向城市。聯(lián)合國(guó)(UN)的一份報(bào)告顯示,在1950年至2018年期間,全球的城市人口增長(zhǎng)了四倍,2007年,城市人口的數(shù)量首次超過(guò)了農(nóng)村人口。

2019年的一項(xiàng)研究顯示,70%的美國(guó)家庭自稱生態(tài)家庭。我們知道很多城市都非常重視可持續(xù)發(fā)展,很適合步行,也注重提高移動(dòng)便利性和整合交通減少排放。如果認(rèn)為歷史上最關(guān)心環(huán)保的一代人會(huì)突然放棄價(jià)值觀,在恐慌時(shí)刻搬到郊區(qū),那實(shí)在是想得太多了。

除此之外,城市將始終是旅游的重要核心,既可以是目的地,也能夠當(dāng)樞紐。

在疫情爆發(fā)之前,歐睿國(guó)際(Euromonitor International)就發(fā)現(xiàn),最受歡迎的入境目的地不出所料地是曼谷、巴黎和倫敦等城市。Expedia集團(tuán)(Expedia Group)也發(fā)現(xiàn)人們對(duì)城市旅游持續(xù)抱有興趣。截至今年3月,從Expedia.com網(wǎng)站的航班預(yù)訂來(lái)看,人們已經(jīng)計(jì)劃返回城市,洛杉磯、西雅圖,當(dāng)然還有紐約市,都在2021年6月至8月十大最受歡迎的旅游目的地之列。

多虧全球科學(xué)界努力研究,多種有效疫苗都在生產(chǎn)中,還有更多的新疫苗即將問(wèn)世。生活一定會(huì)重啟,就像世界各地的人們渴望劇場(chǎng)、博物館、美食、熙熙攘攘、欣賞城市美麗和規(guī)模一樣。人們將在全世界穿梭,住酒店。從某種意義上說(shuō),旅行者將重新感受生命的活力。全球復(fù)興就在不遠(yuǎn)處,歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,首先感受到復(fù)蘇的正是城市。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

彼得·克恩是Expedia集團(tuán)副董事長(zhǎng)兼首席執(zhí)行官。

譯者:夏林

Since the outset of the pandemic, we’ve been inundated by alarmist news and talking heads decrying the end of civilization as we know it. Executives and financial experts have boldly claimed that once COVID-19 is under control and a vaccine is available for mass consumption, people will continue with the quarantine lifestyle—living in exurban areas, shopping only online, cooking at home, and connecting virtually with friends and colleagues instead of gathering in-person in the major metropolitan centers of the world.

Sure, declaring human behavior is forever changed makes for a good headline, but it ignores all of human history. Humanity has survived war, pestilence, disease, and pandemic. Yet it has inexorably continued its march toward the citification of the world.

The global health crisis we’re living through is serious, and it will have lasting effects, but does anyone truly believe this event, beyond all those previous challenges, is capable of fundamentally altering human nature?

We are social animals, not designed for isolation. Maintaining close relationships with others is essential to our mental health and, ultimately, our survival. There is a reason depression and anxiety are rising all over the world. It’s because we miss one another—the interaction, the spontaneity, the energy of it all. Zoom and other videoconferencing tools are great and will certainly be important in our future, but they cannot replace, nor suppress, the need for human connection.

We’ve seen many predictions about the travel industry lately—an industry that generated $2.6 trillion for the U.S. economy in 2019 alone, supporting 15.8 million American jobs. Among the most insidious claims is that people won’t return to cities for years, if ever. This is patently absurd. (As a travel booking company, Expedia Group would benefit from travel to cities bouncing back.)

I used to live about 20 blocks from the World Trade Center. Following 9/11, there was widespread concern that New York City could not recover, and tourism would never be the same. The threat of mass exodus pervaded every corner of Manhattan.

Of course, we all know what happened. Residents and businesses returned. New York City witnessed booming real estate values, strong economic growth, inward migration, and, yes, record tourism.

People always find their way back to cities. Businesses and work are an essential part of the appeal, but people are the heart. An insatiable craving for the culture, community, and bright minds that make up metropolitan areas persists, even in the darkest times.

In fact, since the Industrial Revolution, despite devastating wars and pandemics, people have increasingly flocked to cities. Between 1950 and 2018, the world’s urban population grew fourfold, according to a UN report, with the number of people living in cities outnumbering those in rural areas for the first time in 2007.

A 2019 study showed that seven in 10 American homes classify themselves as eco-households. We know many cities are sustainability superheroes; they are walkable and focused on reducing emissions by enhancing mobility and integrating transportation. It’s a far reach to think that the most environmentally conscious generations in history will suddenly abandon their values and move to the suburbs in a moment of panic.

In addition to that, cities will always be the vital core of travel, playing a dynamic role as destinations and hubs.

Before the pandemic hit, Euromonitor International found the most popular destinations by arrivals were, unsurprisingly, cities like Bangkok, Paris, and London. At Expedia Group, we’ve seen firsthand sustained interest in traveling to cities. Flight reservations on Expedia.com as of March indicate people are already planning their return to cities, with Los Angeles, Seattle, and, of course, New York City ranking among the top 10 most popular destinations from June through August of 2021.

With the global scientific community’s incredible work, multiple effective vaccines are now in production, with more coming. There is little doubt that life will be back, just as there is little doubt that people from around the world will crave the theater, museums, food, hustle and bustle, and beauty and scale of our cities. They will fly across the world; they will stay in hotels; they will, in some sense, feel alive again. Renewal is coming for the world, and history shows us that it will be coming for our cities first.

Peter Kern is vice chairman and chief executive officer of Expedia Group.

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