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2021年,我們該投資比特幣嗎?

Robert Hackett
2021-01-23

支持者堅(jiān)稱,比特幣實(shí)際上就是“數(shù)字黃金”。

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2020年可以說是比特幣真正盛行起來的一年。

就在2020年,包括斯坦利·德魯肯米勒和保羅·都鐸·瓊斯在內(nèi)的對沖基金大佬不再對比特幣持保留意見,轉(zhuǎn)而采取行動買入。同年,從移動支付領(lǐng)域的Square,到保險公司MassMutual,再到科技公司MicroStrategy等等,這些公司紛紛將持有的數(shù)億美元國債轉(zhuǎn)化成了加密貨幣。

比特幣的支持陣營終于能夠與其反對者相抗衡。然而,沉寂已久(很長一段時間比特幣的價格幾乎處于橫盤階段,始終未能突破10000美元)的比特幣價格目前在三萬到四萬美元之間徘徊,散戶投資者也應(yīng)該投資比特幣嗎?投資比特幣的最佳途徑是什么?

比特幣支持派

比特幣牛市與美元牛市背道而馳。社交媒體上興起的“money printer go brrr”(“印鈔機(jī)開動”。嘲諷疫情危機(jī)下美國政府為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)沒完沒了地印鈔票)蘊(yùn)含了比特幣最有說服力的投資理念。簡而言之,比特幣投資者受夠了美聯(lián)儲。他們聲稱,為應(yīng)對疫情封城、失業(yè)和潛在的企業(yè)破產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),美聯(lián)儲采取的激進(jìn)措施將會導(dǎo)致美元貶值。

過去,如果看衰者擔(dān)心貨幣貶值,他們會選擇另類投資來保護(hù)自己的資產(chǎn)。作為一種已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷幾個世紀(jì)考驗(yàn)的貴金屬,黃金往往會成為看衰者的避險資產(chǎn)。究其原因,除了可選范圍有限外,黃金有史以來就非常有市場。比特幣支持者堅(jiān)稱,比特幣實(shí)際上就是“數(shù)字黃金”。比特幣和黃金同為稀缺資源,不同的是,黃金需要開采,而比特幣的供應(yīng)量則受其軟件代碼限制。與其他科技產(chǎn)品一樣,比特幣承諾,隨著時間的推移,比特幣也會不斷改善,甚至將來可能會逐漸成為一種有效的支付方式。

正如推特兼Square首席執(zhí)行官杰克·多西所言:“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)需要一種原生貨幣,而我認(rèn)為比特幣可能是迄今為止最好的證明。”如果說比特幣將成為“下一個黃金”,即便排除了近期的價格上漲,比特幣還有很長的路要走。摩根大通分析師在最近的一份研究報(bào)告中指出,比特幣已成為黃金的競爭對手,從長期來看,比特幣價格有望上漲至14.6萬美元。

比特幣反對派

并非所有人都相信這種說法。Euro Pacific Capital首席執(zhí)行官、黃金多頭彼得·希夫反駁稱:“從根本上來說,比特幣利用了人們的愚蠢和貪婪。”他認(rèn)為,除了投機(jī)外,比特幣標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)一文不值。

數(shù)字貨幣投資公司Grayscale Investments首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·索南辛表示,市場表明情況并非如此。他指出,2020年比特幣價格一路飆升,“與此同時,黃金投資產(chǎn)品也經(jīng)歷了有史以來最大規(guī)模的資金外流。”

Grayscale Investments鼓勵投資者將自己的黃金儲備配置成比特幣。“我當(dāng)然不相信這是巧合,”索南辛繼續(xù)說道。他表示:“許多投資者已經(jīng)意識到,比特幣作為價值存儲或?qū)_通脹資產(chǎn)要優(yōu)于黃金。”

直切數(shù)字黃金正題

通過可靠的交易平臺購買是獲得比特幣最簡單的方式。散戶投資者可以直接從Coinbase等正規(guī)交易所購買比特幣。之后類似于在銀行辦理儲蓄,將購買的比特幣存放在交易所。更成熟的投資者不怕加密密鑰(數(shù)字字母組成的字符串)被篡改,可以將持有的比特幣從這類第三方保險箱轉(zhuǎn)移到個人數(shù)字錢包,比如英國BlockChain公司就提供這樣的數(shù)字錢包服務(wù)。

退休儲蓄賬戶享受稅收優(yōu)惠也變得更加困難。為了解決這一問題,Grayscale面向一流投資者(機(jī)構(gòu)和大戶)發(fā)售其在2013年建立的比特幣“信托”股份。早期所有者通過先鋒領(lǐng)航投資、嘉信理財(cái)、Robinhood等券商在二級市場拋售所持股份后,散戶投資者可以買入特幣基金Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC)的股票。由于諸如Grayscale這樣的變通方法效率低下,股價往往和比特幣的實(shí)際價格存在出入。數(shù)字資產(chǎn)投資初創(chuàng)企業(yè)Arca的首席執(zhí)行官兼聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人雷恩·斯坦伯格表示,溢價“對于不成熟的投資者來說是一筆巨額稅款。”在比特幣交易所交易基金獲得監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)批準(zhǔn)之前,散戶投資者必須要承擔(dān)這筆費(fèi)用。

為避免股價操縱行為和市場流動性不足,投資管理公司VanEck、文克萊沃斯兄弟的Gemini交易所等機(jī)構(gòu)提交的比特幣交易所交易基金申請仍未獲得美國證券交易委員會批準(zhǔn)。但加密貨幣支持者對此持樂觀態(tài)度,他們認(rèn)為,拜登總統(tǒng)任命加里·根斯勒出任證券交易委員會主席,這可能標(biāo)志著比特幣交易所交易基金即將獲得批準(zhǔn)。加里·根斯勒是前美國商品期貨交易委員會主席、麻省理工教授,以精通加密貨幣聞名。

今年1月,被稱為“基金的基金”的對沖基金SkyBridge Capital推出了一只比特幣基金。首席執(zhí)行官布雷特·梅辛表示:“如果讓我來打賭,我認(rèn)為比特幣交易所交易基金會在9個月到兩年內(nèi)獲得批準(zhǔn)。最好在此之前買入比特幣。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:唐塵

2020年可以說是比特幣真正盛行起來的一年。

就在2020年,包括斯坦利·德魯肯米勒和保羅·都鐸·瓊斯在內(nèi)的對沖基金大佬不再對比特幣持保留意見,轉(zhuǎn)而采取行動買入。同年,從移動支付領(lǐng)域的Square,到保險公司MassMutual,再到科技公司MicroStrategy等等,這些公司紛紛將持有的數(shù)億美元國債轉(zhuǎn)化成了加密貨幣。

比特幣的支持陣營終于能夠與其反對者相抗衡。然而,沉寂已久(很長一段時間比特幣的價格幾乎處于橫盤階段,始終未能突破10000美元)的比特幣價格目前在三萬到四萬美元之間徘徊,散戶投資者也應(yīng)該投資比特幣嗎?投資比特幣的最佳途徑是什么?

比特幣支持派

比特幣牛市與美元牛市背道而馳。社交媒體上興起的“money printer go brrr”(“印鈔機(jī)開動”。嘲諷疫情危機(jī)下美國政府為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)沒完沒了地印鈔票)蘊(yùn)含了比特幣最有說服力的投資理念。簡而言之,比特幣投資者受夠了美聯(lián)儲。他們聲稱,為應(yīng)對疫情封城、失業(yè)和潛在的企業(yè)破產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī),美聯(lián)儲采取的激進(jìn)措施將會導(dǎo)致美元貶值。

過去,如果看衰者擔(dān)心貨幣貶值,他們會選擇另類投資來保護(hù)自己的資產(chǎn)。作為一種已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷幾個世紀(jì)考驗(yàn)的貴金屬,黃金往往會成為看衰者的避險資產(chǎn)。究其原因,除了可選范圍有限外,黃金有史以來就非常有市場。比特幣支持者堅(jiān)稱,比特幣實(shí)際上就是“數(shù)字黃金”。比特幣和黃金同為稀缺資源,不同的是,黃金需要開采,而比特幣的供應(yīng)量則受其軟件代碼限制。與其他科技產(chǎn)品一樣,比特幣承諾,隨著時間的推移,比特幣也會不斷改善,甚至將來可能會逐漸成為一種有效的支付方式。

正如推特兼Square首席執(zhí)行官杰克·多西所言:“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)需要一種原生貨幣,而我認(rèn)為比特幣可能是迄今為止最好的證明。”如果說比特幣將成為“下一個黃金”,即便排除了近期的價格上漲,比特幣還有很長的路要走。摩根大通分析師在最近的一份研究報(bào)告中指出,比特幣已成為黃金的競爭對手,從長期來看,比特幣價格有望上漲至14.6萬美元。

比特幣反對派

并非所有人都相信這種說法。Euro Pacific Capital首席執(zhí)行官、黃金多頭彼得·希夫反駁稱:“從根本上來說,比特幣利用了人們的愚蠢和貪婪。”他認(rèn)為,除了投機(jī)外,比特幣標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)一文不值。

數(shù)字貨幣投資公司Grayscale Investments首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·索南辛表示,市場表明情況并非如此。他指出,2020年比特幣價格一路飆升,“與此同時,黃金投資產(chǎn)品也經(jīng)歷了有史以來最大規(guī)模的資金外流。”

Grayscale Investments鼓勵投資者將自己的黃金儲備配置成比特幣。“我當(dāng)然不相信這是巧合,”索南辛繼續(xù)說道。他表示:“許多投資者已經(jīng)意識到,比特幣作為價值存儲或?qū)_通脹資產(chǎn)要優(yōu)于黃金。”

直切數(shù)字黃金正題

通過可靠的交易平臺購買是獲得比特幣最簡單的方式。散戶投資者可以直接從Coinbase等正規(guī)交易所購買比特幣。之后類似于在銀行辦理儲蓄,將購買的比特幣存放在交易所。更成熟的投資者不怕加密密鑰(數(shù)字字母組成的字符串)被篡改,可以將持有的比特幣從這類第三方保險箱轉(zhuǎn)移到個人數(shù)字錢包,比如英國BlockChain公司就提供這樣的數(shù)字錢包服務(wù)。

退休儲蓄賬戶享受稅收優(yōu)惠也變得更加困難。為了解決這一問題,Grayscale面向一流投資者(機(jī)構(gòu)和大戶)發(fā)售其在2013年建立的比特幣“信托”股份。早期所有者通過先鋒領(lǐng)航投資、嘉信理財(cái)、Robinhood等券商在二級市場拋售所持股份后,散戶投資者可以買入特幣基金Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC)的股票。由于諸如Grayscale這樣的變通方法效率低下,股價往往和比特幣的實(shí)際價格存在出入。數(shù)字資產(chǎn)投資初創(chuàng)企業(yè)Arca的首席執(zhí)行官兼聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人雷恩·斯坦伯格表示,溢價“對于不成熟的投資者來說是一筆巨額稅款。”在比特幣交易所交易基金獲得監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)批準(zhǔn)之前,散戶投資者必須要承擔(dān)這筆費(fèi)用。

為避免股價操縱行為和市場流動性不足,投資管理公司VanEck、文克萊沃斯兄弟的Gemini交易所等機(jī)構(gòu)提交的比特幣交易所交易基金申請仍未獲得美國證券交易委員會批準(zhǔn)。但加密貨幣支持者對此持樂觀態(tài)度,他們認(rèn)為,拜登總統(tǒng)任命加里·根斯勒出任證券交易委員會主席,這可能標(biāo)志著比特幣交易所交易基金即將獲得批準(zhǔn)。加里·根斯勒是前美國商品期貨交易委員會主席、麻省理工教授,以精通加密貨幣聞名。

今年1月,被稱為“基金的基金”的對沖基金SkyBridge Capital推出了一只比特幣基金。首席執(zhí)行官布雷特·梅辛表示:“如果讓我來打賭,我認(rèn)為比特幣交易所交易基金會在9個月到兩年內(nèi)獲得批準(zhǔn)。最好在此之前買入比特幣。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:唐塵

2020 will go down as the year Bitcoin truly caught on.

It’s the year hedge fund leading lights such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones abandoned their reservations and bought in. It’s also the year that corporations ranging from Square to Mass Mutual to the tech firm MicroStrategy converted hundreds of millions of dollars of their own treasuries into the cryptocurrency.

The Bitcoin boosters are finally rivaling the naysayers. But as the price of Bitcoin now lurches between $30,000 and $40,000 after a long period of mostly sub-$10,000 dormancy, should retail investors bite too? And what’s the best way to do so?

The case for Bitcoin

The bull case for Bitcoin runs counter to that of the U.S. dollar. The strongest investment thesis for Bitcoin is encapsulated by the “money printer go brrr” meme that sprouted up on social media to pillory government responses to the pandemic. Bitcoiners are, in short, fed up with the Fed. They claim the drastic measures the Federal Reserve is taking to combat the economic fallout of coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment, and potential business bankruptcies will devalue the greenback. (“Brrr” is the whimsical sound the Fed’s hypothetical money machine might make as it readies stimulus packages.)

Traditionally, when Cassandras fear currency debasement, they choose alternative investments to protect their wealth. Commonly they pick gold, a precious metal whose worth has, generally, stood the test of centuries. There’s only so much to go around and, for about as long as recorded history, there’s always been a market for it. Bitcoin believers maintain that their beloved cryptocurrency is, effectively, “digital gold.” Like the yellow stuff, it’s a scarce resource, except that the issuance is limited by its software code rather than earthly extraction. Like other tech products, the promise of Bitcoin is that it may improve over time, possibly even graduating to become a useful means of payment one day.

As Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey puts it, “The Internet wants a native currency, and I think Bitcoin is probably the best manifestation of that so far.” If Bitcoin is to be the next gold, then it’s got quite a runway—even after accounting for the recent rise in value. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase told clients in a recent research note that the price could reach $146,000 in the long term as it eats into interest for gold.

The counter case

Not everyone is buying that argument. “Bitcoin basically takes advantage of people's stupidity and greed,” counters Peter Schiff, a longtime goldbug and chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital. He believes the underlying asset is worthless outside of speculation.

Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of Grayscale Investments, a digital currency investing firm, says the markets indicate otherwise. He notes that Bitcoin’s price rocketed through 2020 “at the same time that gold investment products experienced some of the largest outflows on record.”

“I certainly don't believe that to be a coincidence,” continues Sonnenshein, whose company is notable for having run a marketing blitz encouraging people to “drop gold” for Bitcoin. “Many investors have woken up to Bitcoin being a superior store of value or inflation hedge in their portfolios than gold,” he says.

Getting down to digital gold tacks

The simplest way to own Bitcoin is to buy some from a trustworthy entity. Retail investors can buy Bitcoin directly from a regulated exchange like Coinbase. They can then stash their holdings there, as they would a bank. More sophisticated investors, who aren’t afraid to juggle cryptographic keys—long strings of alphanumerics—can transfer the funds out of such third-party coffers to a personal digital wallet, like those the U.K.-based firm Blockchain helps people set up online.

Anyone who seeks the tax advantages of a retirement savings account will have a harder time. In the U.S., Grayscale offers one solution to the problem by selling big-time investors—institutional and accredited ones—shares of a Bitcoin-backed “trust” it established in 2013. Retail investors can buy shares in the so-called Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, or GBTC, after the earlier owners have offloaded their holdings on secondary markets, through brokerages like Vanguard, Charles Schwab, and Robinhood. Because of the inefficiencies of workarounds such as Grayscale’s, share prices tend to be out of whack with the price of the underlying Bitcoin. Rayne Steinberg, chief executive and cofounder of Arca, a digital asset investment startup, says that premium is “a huge tax on an unsophisticated investor.” Until regulators sign off on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, that tax is something retail investors will have to live with.

The U.S. SEC, worried about the possibility for price manipulation and illiquid markets, continues to swat down Bitcoin ETF applications from the likes of VanEck and the Winklevoss twins’ Gemini exchange. But cryptocurrency enthusiasts are optimistic that President Joe Biden’s selection of Gary Gensler, a former CFTC chair and MIT academic with a reputation for crypto-savviness, to lead the SEC might signal a Bitcoin ETF approval—the industry’s holy grail—is coming. “Call it nine months to two-year time frame, if I were a betting man,” says Brett Messing, chief executive of SkyBridge Capital, a “fund of funds” hedge fund that launched a Bitcoin fund in January. “You want to own Bitcoin before that.”

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