對(duì)數(shù)百萬等待今冬第二張刺激性支票的美國(guó)人來說,這可能不是什么好消息——這張1200美元的支票也許不會(huì)出現(xiàn)了。
上周二, 共和黨的米特?羅姆尼、民主黨的喬?曼欽等參議員表示他們共同提出了9080億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,其內(nèi)容包括增加失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)和國(guó)家撥款等,但并不包括再次簽發(fā)1200美元的刺激性支票。
令人意外的是,盡管此前幾個(gè)月一直堅(jiān)持要求拿出數(shù)萬億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,但眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希?佩洛西表示對(duì)上述提案持開放態(tài)度,稱“應(yīng)以其為基礎(chǔ)”推動(dòng)協(xié)商。這也是佩洛西首次對(duì)不包含刺激性支票的方案表示支持。
這就意味著共和黨與民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人看來都傾向于支持不包括此類支票的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案。考慮到佩洛西和美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普在大選前的商討中都支持再次簽發(fā)刺激性支票,這樣的轉(zhuǎn)變可謂顯著。
取代財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂文?姆努欽成為首席談判代表的參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖米奇?麥康奈爾仍在爭(zhēng)取規(guī)模較小而且不含現(xiàn)金支付項(xiàng)目的方案。上周四,白宮再次表示支持麥康奈爾的計(jì)劃。同時(shí),如果今年要通過什么提案的話,那就一定需要麥康奈爾的批準(zhǔn)。
麥康奈爾于上周二拿出了他的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,數(shù)額要小得多,實(shí)際上比上述提案少了幾千億美元。但與前者類似的是,他的方案也不包括刺激性支票。
刺激性支票為什么會(huì)被砍掉呢?原因是時(shí)間所剩無幾。國(guó)會(huì)要在12月11日前通過政府開支議案,分析師與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家則認(rèn)為,要幫助失業(yè)者和小企業(yè)維持到明年全面接種新冠疫苗之前,通過一項(xiàng)“過橋”刺激性議案就尤為重要。簡(jiǎn)而言之,到目前為止民主黨領(lǐng)袖看來愿意放棄一些支出項(xiàng)目,以便將對(duì)財(cái)政支出持更保守態(tài)度的共和黨參議員拉上船,并在本月通過某些提案。
不過,今年12月出臺(tái)經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案并未完全排除明年再次簽發(fā)刺激性支票的可能性。如果1月5日民主黨在喬治亞州兩個(gè)參議院席位的爭(zhēng)奪中全面勝出,他們就可以控制參議院,進(jìn)而有能力推動(dòng)另一項(xiàng)刺激措施獲得通過,而這項(xiàng)措施就可能包括刺激性支票。但如果共和黨繼續(xù)掌控參議院,再次簽發(fā)刺激性支票的可能性就可能歸零。
正如加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)美國(guó)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家湯姆?波切利最近接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)所說:“我覺得[再簽發(fā)刺激性支票]的難度非常大。如果共和黨拿到了參議院席位,我想那基本上就沒希望了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Charlie
對(duì)數(shù)百萬等待今冬第二張刺激性支票的美國(guó)人來說,這可能不是什么好消息——這張1200美元的支票也許不會(huì)出現(xiàn)了。
上周二, 共和黨的米特?羅姆尼、民主黨的喬?曼欽等參議員表示他們共同提出了9080億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,其內(nèi)容包括增加失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)和國(guó)家撥款等,但并不包括再次簽發(fā)1200美元的刺激性支票。
令人意外的是,盡管此前幾個(gè)月一直堅(jiān)持要求拿出數(shù)萬億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,但眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希?佩洛西表示對(duì)上述提案持開放態(tài)度,稱“應(yīng)以其為基礎(chǔ)”推動(dòng)協(xié)商。這也是佩洛西首次對(duì)不包含刺激性支票的方案表示支持。
這就意味著共和黨與民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人看來都傾向于支持不包括此類支票的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案。考慮到佩洛西和美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普在大選前的商討中都支持再次簽發(fā)刺激性支票,這樣的轉(zhuǎn)變可謂顯著。
取代財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂文?姆努欽成為首席談判代表的參議院多數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖米奇?麥康奈爾仍在爭(zhēng)取規(guī)模較小而且不含現(xiàn)金支付項(xiàng)目的方案。上周四,白宮再次表示支持麥康奈爾的計(jì)劃。同時(shí),如果今年要通過什么提案的話,那就一定需要麥康奈爾的批準(zhǔn)。
麥康奈爾于上周二拿出了他的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案,數(shù)額要小得多,實(shí)際上比上述提案少了幾千億美元。但與前者類似的是,他的方案也不包括刺激性支票。
刺激性支票為什么會(huì)被砍掉呢?原因是時(shí)間所剩無幾。國(guó)會(huì)要在12月11日前通過政府開支議案,分析師與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家則認(rèn)為,要幫助失業(yè)者和小企業(yè)維持到明年全面接種新冠疫苗之前,通過一項(xiàng)“過橋”刺激性議案就尤為重要。簡(jiǎn)而言之,到目前為止民主黨領(lǐng)袖看來愿意放棄一些支出項(xiàng)目,以便將對(duì)財(cái)政支出持更保守態(tài)度的共和黨參議員拉上船,并在本月通過某些提案。
不過,今年12月出臺(tái)經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案并未完全排除明年再次簽發(fā)刺激性支票的可能性。如果1月5日民主黨在喬治亞州兩個(gè)參議院席位的爭(zhēng)奪中全面勝出,他們就可以控制參議院,進(jìn)而有能力推動(dòng)另一項(xiàng)刺激措施獲得通過,而這項(xiàng)措施就可能包括刺激性支票。但如果共和黨繼續(xù)掌控參議院,再次簽發(fā)刺激性支票的可能性就可能歸零。
正如加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)美國(guó)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家湯姆?波切利最近接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)所說:“我覺得[再簽發(fā)刺激性支票]的難度非常大。如果共和黨拿到了參議院席位,我想那基本上就沒希望了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Charlie
For the millions of Americans waiting on another stimulus check this winter, the news isn't good: Those $1,200 checks may not be coming.
On Tuesday, a group of bipartisan senators including Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Joe Manchin announced a $908 billion stimulus proposal. The bill includes items like enhanced unemployment insurance and state funding, but it doesn't include another round of $1,200 stimulus checks.
In a surprise move, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was open to the $908 billion package, saying it "should be used as the basis" for negotiations moving forward, despite her having argued firmly for a multi-trillion-dollar package for months. It also marks the first time Pelosi voiced support for a bill that didn't include stimulus checks.
That means both Republican and Democratic leaders appear to be poised to back a package without checks—a notable shift considering both Pelosi and President Trump supported another round of checks while negotiating before the election.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has taken over for Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin as the chief negotiator in the talks, is still vying for a smaller bill without direct payments. The White House reaffirmed Thursday it is backing McConnell's plan. And if any bill is going to pass this year, it'll need McConnell's approval.
McConnell passed around his version of the next stimulus package on Tuesday, but with a much lower price tag: Several hundred billion lower, in fact. Like the bipartisan bill, McConnell's plan also wouldn't include stimulus checks.
One reason stimulus checks are on the chopping block? Time is running out. Congress has until Dec. 11 to pass a spending bill to fund the government, and analysts and economists argue passing a "bridge" stimulus bill will be essential to helping the unemployed and small businesses survive until a vaccine can be widely distributed next year. Simply put: Democratic leaders so far appear willing to sacrifice some spending items in order to get more fiscally-conservative Senate Republicans on board and pass something this month.
Still, a December stimulus package doesn't completely rule out another round of checks in 2021. If Democrats win both Senate seats heading for runoff elections in Georgia on January 5, they'd gain control of the Senate and have the power to push through another stimulus package—which could include direct payments. But if Republicans retain the Senate, chances for another stimulus check would likely be dead.
As Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, recently told Fortune: "I think [more stimulus checks are] going to be a very hard sell. If you have a Republican Senate, I think that’s almost a nonstarter."