高盛力挺特斯拉：還能再漲
David Z.Morris
2020-12-07
隨著特斯拉上周繼續暴漲，高盛分析師將其股票評級由“中性”上調為“買入”，并將特斯拉一年內的目標股價由455美元上調為了780美元。
特斯拉近期一直好消息不斷，五個季度實現盈利、成功被納入標普500指數，埃隆?馬斯克還被《財富》評選為了年度最佳商人。高盛在此基礎上的一番操作更是錦上添花。
高盛就此次上調例舉原因如下：首先，高盛分析師普遍認為目前市場上的電動車電池價格下跌速度快于預期。其次，未來幾十年內越來越多的監管機構即將禁止內燃機銷售。綜合以上因素，電動車的普及速度必將加快，高盛預計，到2030年，電動汽車將占全球汽車銷量的18%，且該比例有望在2035年上升至29%。美國和西歐地區的電動車銷量可在屆時達到50%左右。
此外，即將上臺的拜登政府也會利好特斯拉前景。高盛的報告指出：“奧巴馬在任期內曾要求汽車燃油消耗量要在2025年縮減到55英里/加侖左右，以此為起點，我們認為電動車的銷量必將翻倍，尤其是在沒有算入額外補貼的情況下。” 高盛分析師還表示，特斯拉的能源及自動駕駛業務價值可能也會高于此前預期。
和高盛一樣對特斯拉目標股價持超樂觀態度的機構還有很多。Wedbush證券分析師丹? 艾維斯上周同樣提高了該股評級，雖然他對特斯拉一年內目標股價的預期仍低于560美元，但他已將該股“牛市”目標重定為800至1000美元。艾維斯對《財富》表示，電動車需求“真的開始變化，尤其是在中國”。他指出，今年電動汽車銷量只占全球3%，但這一比例在2025年有望達到10%。特斯拉顯然是其中的領跑者，到2022年，特斯拉在中國的市場比例將從15%上升到40%。”
然而特斯拉的風險性依舊不可忽視，所有分析師報告均對此點有所強調。正如《財富》早前幾期特斯拉專題報道所指出的那樣，這家車企的商業模式存在根本性問題，并非實打實地來自汽車銷售，反而更依賴于向其他企業出售“碳信用額度”。
盡管如此，高盛依然在報告中強調，今年實在不該看衰特斯拉。分析師們寫道，他們也曾在6月份下調過特斯拉的股票評級，因為當時特斯拉的降價幅度超出預期，還有一些報道稱Model Y在制造方面面臨挑戰，但高盛此番指出“我們早前預測特斯拉會‘在未來20年增長放緩’是不正確的，自從高盛在6月11日對其下調評級以來，這只股票上漲了192%，而標普500指數上漲了22%。”（財富中文網）
編譯:陳怡軒
隨著特斯拉上周繼續暴漲，高盛分析師將其股票評級由“中性”上調為“買入”，并將特斯拉一年內的目標股價由455美元上調為了780美元。
特斯拉近期一直好消息不斷，五個季度實現盈利、成功被納入標普500指數，埃隆?馬斯克還被《財富》評選為了年度最佳商人。高盛在此基礎上的一番操作更是錦上添花。
高盛就此次上調例舉原因如下：首先，高盛分析師普遍認為目前市場上的電動車電池價格下跌速度快于預期。其次，未來幾十年內越來越多的監管機構即將禁止內燃機銷售。綜合以上因素，電動車的普及速度必將加快，高盛預計，到2030年，電動汽車將占全球汽車銷量的18%，且該比例有望在2035年上升至29%。美國和西歐地區的電動車銷量可在屆時達到50%左右。
此外，即將上臺的拜登政府也會利好特斯拉前景。高盛的報告指出：“奧巴馬在任期內曾要求汽車燃油消耗量要在2025年縮減到55英里/加侖左右，以此為起點，我們認為電動車的銷量必將翻倍，尤其是在沒有算入額外補貼的情況下。” 高盛分析師還表示，特斯拉的能源及自動駕駛業務價值可能也會高于此前預期。
和高盛一樣對特斯拉目標股價持超樂觀態度的機構還有很多。Wedbush證券分析師丹? 艾維斯上周同樣提高了該股評級，雖然他對特斯拉一年內目標股價的預期仍低于560美元，但他已將該股“牛市”目標重定為800至1000美元。艾維斯對《財富》表示，電動車需求“真的開始變化，尤其是在中國”。他指出，今年電動汽車銷量只占全球3%，但這一比例在2025年有望達到10%。特斯拉顯然是其中的領跑者，到2022年，特斯拉在中國的市場比例將從15%上升到40%。”
然而特斯拉的風險性依舊不可忽視，所有分析師報告均對此點有所強調。正如《財富》早前幾期特斯拉專題報道所指出的那樣，這家車企的商業模式存在根本性問題，并非實打實地來自汽車銷售，反而更依賴于向其他企業出售“碳信用額度”。
盡管如此，高盛依然在報告中強調，今年實在不該看衰特斯拉。分析師們寫道，他們也曾在6月份下調過特斯拉的股票評級，因為當時特斯拉的降價幅度超出預期，還有一些報道稱Model Y在制造方面面臨挑戰，但高盛此番指出“我們早前預測特斯拉會‘在未來20年增長放緩’是不正確的，自從高盛在6月11日對其下調評級以來，這只股票上漲了192%，而標普500指數上漲了22%。”（財富中文網）
編譯:陳怡軒
Tesla got a major boost this past week as analysts at Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from neutral to buy, driving their 12-month price target from $455 to $780.
That's capped a run of positive news for the company, including its fifth consecutive quarter of profits, the announcement that it would be added to the S&P 500, and of course Elon Musk being named Fortune's Businessperson of the Year.
Goldman's analysts cited a few reasons for their change of heart. They believe EV adoption is accelerating due to battery prices falling faster than they had expected, combined with an increase in regulatory proposals to limit or ban the sale of internal combustion engines over the next few decades. As a result, the analysts "now expect EVs to comprise 18% of sales globally in 2030 and 29% in 2035 (with 50% adoption in 2035 in both the US and in Western Europe)."
The incoming Biden administration also bodes well for Tesla's prospects. "Using the prior Obama plan of ~55 MPG of corporate average fuel economy by 2025 as a starting point for analysis purposes, we believe that companies may need a double digit percent of sales to come from EVs to comply with stricter emissions standards especially if there is no bonus treatment for EVs in the calculation," the report states. What's more, the Goldman analysts also suggest Tesla's Energy and FSD (full self driving) businesses could be worth more than previously assumed.
Though Goldman's price target of $780 might strike some as overly bullish, they aren't the only ones feeling optimistic. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives also upgraded the stock last week, sticking a "bull case" target of a $800-$1,000 on TSLA shares (his 12-month target, meanwhile, is below Goldman's at $560). As my colleague Anne Sraders wrote, "electric vehicle demand 'is really starting to inflect, especially in China,' Ives tells Fortune. He notes globally 3% of auto sales are EV, and 'We think that now has potential to be 10% by 2025. With Tesla being the clear leader, we believe China could represent 40% of sales by 2022, up from 15% today.'"
To be sure, every analyst report about Tesla is filled with caveats and risk factors, and as my colleague Shawn Tully has written about extensively for Fortune, there are fundamental questions about Tesla's business model and it's over-reliance on the business of selling emissions credits.
That said, the Goldman report also highlights how tough it has been to bet against Tesla this year. The analysts write that they had downgraded the stock in June after Tesla lowered prices more than had been expected and there had been some reports of manufacturing challenges with the Model Y. "This concern that we had about a 2H20 growth slowdown was incorrect, and since our downgrade on 6/11/20 the stock is +192% vs. the S&P 500 +22%," they wrote.
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