每年的這個時候,我都會無比懷念2017年的感恩節。那是一個更加單純的年代,許多人都在狂熱地查看比特幣的價格,而這種加密貨幣的價格仿佛受到家庭聚會上看漲對話的刺激似的,先是沖破9,000美元,然后又在假期結束后的幾天內突破1,0000美元大關。多么古樸!
今年,我們的感恩節盛宴可能會比以往更加親密一些,但比特幣的前景似乎輝煌如昔: 11月25日早上,比特幣的價格接近1.95萬美元,而且看上去越來越不可避免的是,它將在不太遙遠的未來突破2,0000美元,創下歷史新高。(看漲情緒確實在蔓延,道瓊斯工業平均指數已經突破3,0000點。)
市場如此亢奮的部分原因是,金融業普遍認為,即將上臺的拜登政府對加密貨幣來說是“好事一樁”。加密社區甚至對當選總統選擇前美聯儲主席珍妮特·耶倫擔任財政部長表示歡迎。盡管她過去曾對比特幣發出警告,但耶倫已經表露出對區塊鏈技術的興趣。在《財富》上周舉辦的一場視頻會議上,加密貨幣交易所Coinbase首席運營官艾米麗?崔表示:“加密貨幣正在華府獲得新動能?!?/p>
然而,加密貨幣投資者應該小心,千萬不要把政府對虛擬資產的潛在支持,與市場對這類資產,尤其是對比特幣的看漲情緒混為一談。上周我在卡托研究所年度貨幣會議上主持第二場以數字貨幣為主題的小組討論時,非常明確地意識到這一點。參加討論的嘉賓之一是貨幣監理署(OCC)首席經濟學家查爾斯·卡羅米里斯。
你可能還記得,OCC在7月份宣布了一項備受媒體關注的新政策,授權銀行持有包括比特幣在內的加密貨幣。OCC還積極支持向金融科技初創公司頒發銀行牌照。事實上,正是該機構上個月有條件地批準貸款和投資獨角獸SoFi創建一家全國性銀行。
但切不可據此認為OCC對比特幣持友好態度,卡羅米里斯說得很明白:
“我們越早停止討論比特幣越好?!笨_米里斯在視頻對話中明確表示,“比特幣不是加密貨幣的未來?!?/p>
卡羅米里斯說,比特幣的波動性,再加上它經常被用于犯罪交易,使得這種加密貨幣不如他本人提倡的基于區塊鏈的穩定幣。
“與政府官員交談時,我發現,從政府監管的角度來看,對區塊鏈貨幣的未來最無助益的事情就是,每個人都在談論比特幣?!彼忉屨f。
在他看來,試圖讓監管機構相信比特幣的穩健性和有用性,實際上可能會損害數字貨幣的整體發展?!八晕覀冞€是不要再談論比特幣了。比特幣是個聰明的想法,絕妙的創新,但它不是未來,伙計們!”卡羅米里斯總結道。
目前還不清楚目前的OCC領導層是否會成為未來拜登政府的一部分??_米里斯和他的老板,OCC代理署長布賴恩·布魯克斯(也是Coinbase的前高管)可能會繼續留任;就在上周,特朗普總統提名布魯克斯擔任OCC署長,任期5年。但即便此項任命得到確認,拜登仍然可能會用一位民主黨人取而代之。
拜登任命的官員是否會認為比特幣不只是“聰明”?我想,如果新一屆聯邦政府這樣看待比特幣——而不是把它視為某種更加邪惡的東西——加密貨幣社區可能會認為這是一場勝利。(財富中文網)
譯者:任文科
每年的這個時候,我都會無比懷念2017年的感恩節。那是一個更加單純的年代,許多人都在狂熱地查看比特幣的價格,而這種加密貨幣的價格仿佛受到家庭聚會上看漲對話的刺激似的,先是沖破9,000美元,然后又在假期結束后的幾天內突破1,0000美元大關。多么古樸!
今年,我們的感恩節盛宴可能會比以往更加親密一些,但比特幣的前景似乎輝煌如昔: 11月25日早上,比特幣的價格接近1.95萬美元,而且看上去越來越不可避免的是,它將在不太遙遠的未來突破2,0000美元,創下歷史新高。(看漲情緒確實在蔓延,道瓊斯工業平均指數已經突破3,0000點。)
市場如此亢奮的部分原因是,金融業普遍認為,即將上臺的拜登政府對加密貨幣來說是“好事一樁”。加密社區甚至對當選總統選擇前美聯儲主席珍妮特·耶倫擔任財政部長表示歡迎。盡管她過去曾對比特幣發出警告,但耶倫已經表露出對區塊鏈技術的興趣。在《財富》上周舉辦的一場視頻會議上,加密貨幣交易所Coinbase首席運營官艾米麗?崔表示:“加密貨幣正在華府獲得新動能?!?/p>
然而,加密貨幣投資者應該小心,千萬不要把政府對虛擬資產的潛在支持,與市場對這類資產,尤其是對比特幣的看漲情緒混為一談。上周我在卡托研究所年度貨幣會議上主持第二場以數字貨幣為主題的小組討論時,非常明確地意識到這一點。參加討論的嘉賓之一是貨幣監理署(OCC)首席經濟學家查爾斯·卡羅米里斯。
你可能還記得,OCC在7月份宣布了一項備受媒體關注的新政策,授權銀行持有包括比特幣在內的加密貨幣。OCC還積極支持向金融科技初創公司頒發銀行牌照。事實上,正是該機構上個月有條件地批準貸款和投資獨角獸SoFi創建一家全國性銀行。
但切不可據此認為OCC對比特幣持友好態度,卡羅米里斯說得很明白:
“我們越早停止討論比特幣越好?!笨_米里斯在視頻對話中明確表示,“比特幣不是加密貨幣的未來?!?/p>
卡羅米里斯說,比特幣的波動性,再加上它經常被用于犯罪交易,使得這種加密貨幣不如他本人提倡的基于區塊鏈的穩定幣。
“與政府官員交談時,我發現,從政府監管的角度來看,對區塊鏈貨幣的未來最無助益的事情就是,每個人都在談論比特幣。”他解釋說。
在他看來,試圖讓監管機構相信比特幣的穩健性和有用性,實際上可能會損害數字貨幣的整體發展?!八晕覀冞€是不要再談論比特幣了。比特幣是個聰明的想法,絕妙的創新,但它不是未來,伙計們!”卡羅米里斯總結道。
目前還不清楚目前的OCC領導層是否會成為未來拜登政府的一部分??_米里斯和他的老板,OCC代理署長布賴恩·布魯克斯(也是Coinbase的前高管)可能會繼續留任;就在上周,特朗普總統提名布魯克斯擔任OCC署長,任期5年。但即便此項任命得到確認,拜登仍然可能會用一位民主黨人取而代之。
拜登任命的官員是否會認為比特幣不只是“聰明”?我想,如果新一屆聯邦政府這樣看待比特幣——而不是把它視為某種更加邪惡的東西——加密貨幣社區可能會認為這是一場勝利。(財富中文網)
譯者:任文科
This time of year has me feeling more than a little nostalgic for Thanksgiving 2017. It was a simpler time, when many of us were manically checking the price of Bitcoin, which—as if spurred by bullish conversations at family gatherings—first rocketed past $9,000, and then $10,000, just days after the holiday. How quaint.
This year our feasts may be more intimate, but Bitcoin’s prospects seem as grand as ever: this morning, Bitcoin's price is close to $19,500, and it looks increasingly inevitable that the cryptocurrency will, in the not-so-distant future, set a new all-time high above $20,000. (Bullishness is truly in the air, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 30,000 .)
Part of the excitement involves a widely held belief in the financial industry that the incoming Biden administration is a “good thing” for cryptocurrency. The crypto community has even welcomed the President-elect’s choice of Treasury Secretary, former Fed chair Janet Yellen. Despite her past warnings against Bitcoin, she has signaled an interest in blockchain technology. “Crypto is gaining steam in D.C.,” Emilie Choi, the COO of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, said during a Fortune?virtual event we hosted last week.
Yet cryptocurrency investors should be careful not to conflate potential government support for virtual assets in general with bullishness for Bitcoin in particular. This was crystallized for me last week during a second panel I moderated at the Cato Institute’s annual monetary conference on the subject of digital currency. One of the panelists was Charles Calomiris, the chief economist of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).
You’ll recall that the OCC made headlines in July when it announced a new policy authorizing banks to hold cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin. The OCC is also a vocal supporter of chartering fintech startups as banks, and was the agency that last month gave SoFi, the lending and investing unicorn, conditional approval to create a national bank.
But lest you think that adds up to a friendly attitude towards Bitcoin at the OCC, Calomiris will set you straight:
“The sooner we stop talking about Bitcoin, the better,” Calomiris said during the virtual conversation. “Bitcoin is not the future of cryptocurrency.”
Calomiris says the volatility of Bitcoin, as well as its use for criminal transactions, make it inferior to blockchain-based stablecoins, for which he does advocate.
“From a government regulatory standpoint, I find, talking to government officials, the most unproductive thing about the future of getting blockchain-based currencies to happen,” he explained, “is that everyone’s talking about Bitcoin.”
From his point of view, trying to convince regulators of the soundness and usefulness of Bitcoin may actually be damaging the case for digital currencies overall. “So let’s just stop talking about Bitcoin. It was a cute idea; it was a brilliant innovation; it is not the future, guys!” Calomiris concluded.
It’s unclear whether the current OCC leadership will be part of the future Biden administration. Calomiris and his boss Brian Brooks, the acting comptroller of the currency (and a former Coinbase executive) could stay on; just last week, President Trump nominated Brooks to fill the comptroller role for a 5-year term. Yet even if Brooks were confirmed, Biden could probably still replace him with a Democrat.
Would Biden’s appointees view Bitcoin as more than “cute?” I think the crypto community might consider it a win if that’s how the incoming White House sees Bitcoin—rather than as something more sinister.