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美國(guó)大選引起華爾街蝴蝶效應(yīng)

ANNE SRADERS
2020-11-03

專家認(rèn)為,美國(guó)股市最近幾天不會(huì)風(fēng)平浪靜。

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請(qǐng)做好準(zhǔn)備,投資者們:這幾天可能非常難熬。

嘉信理財(cái)(Charles Schwab)交易與衍生品業(yè)務(wù)副總裁蘭迪?弗雷德里克表示,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)“進(jìn)入回調(diào)區(qū)間并不意外?!睒?biāo)普500指數(shù)比之前9月2日的最高點(diǎn)回調(diào)10%,需要下跌至3,222點(diǎn)。周五,該指數(shù)收于3,269.96點(diǎn),下跌1.2%,約比回調(diào)區(qū)間高出1.4%。

在11月3日美國(guó)大選日之前,各個(gè)市場(chǎng)確實(shí)經(jīng)歷了動(dòng)蕩的一周:道指本周下跌6.5%(標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌5.6%),美國(guó)股市經(jīng)歷了自3月疫情帶來(lái)的陣痛以來(lái)的單周最大跌幅。

嘉信理財(cái)?shù)母ダ椎吕锟吮硎?,直到最近幾周,市?chǎng)還一直認(rèn)為大選不會(huì)陷入白熱化,但現(xiàn)在有些投資者似乎相信兩位候選人的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)會(huì)變得更加激烈。他表示,他從市場(chǎng)上相互沖突的觀點(diǎn)中看到了各種各樣的信號(hào),市場(chǎng)上漲或下跌都有可能發(fā)生。

他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我所關(guān)注的指標(biāo)所表現(xiàn)出的趨勢(shì)雜亂無(wú)章。我不記得上一次出現(xiàn)如此嚴(yán)重的分歧是在什么時(shí)候。有些指標(biāo)表現(xiàn)出非常強(qiáng)烈的看漲跡象,有些則強(qiáng)烈看跌,有些指標(biāo)出現(xiàn)了通常只有在預(yù)期會(huì)發(fā)生劇烈波動(dòng)的時(shí)候才有的表現(xiàn)。在這種混亂的情況下,你只能說(shuō)市場(chǎng)肯定會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng),只是我們不知道會(huì)朝哪個(gè)方向波動(dòng)。”

未來(lái)幾天,投資者有哪一點(diǎn)是可以確信的?弗雷德里克表示:“市場(chǎng)不會(huì)風(fēng)平浪靜,不起波瀾。”

弗雷德里克等策略師正在密切關(guān)注期權(quán)和波動(dòng)率指標(biāo)(又稱恐慌指標(biāo)),他發(fā)現(xiàn),對(duì)于波動(dòng)率指標(biāo)的公開(kāi)利率看跌/看漲期權(quán)比率周五達(dá)到了3月以來(lái)的最高水平。然而,他指出指數(shù)期權(quán)(通常顯示更多機(jī)構(gòu)活動(dòng))可能意味著當(dāng)前存在針對(duì)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的對(duì)沖交易。

現(xiàn)在距離投票日臨近,投資者坐立不安,而且有市場(chǎng)觀察家正在嘗試預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的走勢(shì):LPL公司的瑞恩?德特里克在周四指出,市場(chǎng)在大選前六天內(nèi)下跌超過(guò)3%的情況只出現(xiàn)過(guò)兩次(比如標(biāo)普500指數(shù)和道指在周四的表現(xiàn)),而且兩次選舉的結(jié)果都是現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)落選。

除此之外,在蘋(píng)果(Apple)和Facebook等公司公布了規(guī)模龐大的收益之后,科技股在上周五的表現(xiàn)卻令人失望,導(dǎo)致以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)當(dāng)天下跌近2.5%。

過(guò)去一兩周,美股市場(chǎng)整體上變得更加焦慮,原因包括在大選之前刺激政策可能以失敗告終,另外美國(guó)和全世界的新冠病例持續(xù)增加依舊令人不安,引發(fā)了進(jìn)一步增加限制措施的擔(dān)憂(有些國(guó)家已經(jīng)開(kāi)始了新一輪封鎖)。

弗雷德里克表示,事實(shí)上,如果沒(méi)有大選之前最后一刻的恐慌,本周新冠病例的增加一直是“市場(chǎng)下行波動(dòng)最大的刺激因素?!?/p>

LPL公司的杰夫?布赫賓德等策略師依舊認(rèn)為,只要大選結(jié)束并明確了獲勝者,市場(chǎng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈。他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“無(wú)論是拜登還是特朗普,我們認(rèn)為只要有了確定的結(jié)果對(duì)市場(chǎng)都有幫助?!?財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

請(qǐng)做好準(zhǔn)備,投資者們:這幾天可能非常難熬。

嘉信理財(cái)(Charles Schwab)交易與衍生品業(yè)務(wù)副總裁蘭迪?弗雷德里克表示,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)“進(jìn)入回調(diào)區(qū)間并不意外?!睒?biāo)普500指數(shù)比之前9月2日的最高點(diǎn)回調(diào)10%,需要下跌至3,222點(diǎn)。周五,該指數(shù)收于3,269.96點(diǎn),下跌1.2%,約比回調(diào)區(qū)間高出1.4%。

在11月3日美國(guó)大選日之前,各個(gè)市場(chǎng)確實(shí)經(jīng)歷了動(dòng)蕩的一周:道指本周下跌6.5%(標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌5.6%),美國(guó)股市經(jīng)歷了自3月疫情帶來(lái)的陣痛以來(lái)的單周最大跌幅。

嘉信理財(cái)?shù)母ダ椎吕锟吮硎?,直到最近幾周,市?chǎng)還一直認(rèn)為大選不會(huì)陷入白熱化,但現(xiàn)在有些投資者似乎相信兩位候選人的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)會(huì)變得更加激烈。他表示,他從市場(chǎng)上相互沖突的觀點(diǎn)中看到了各種各樣的信號(hào),市場(chǎng)上漲或下跌都有可能發(fā)生。

他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“我所關(guān)注的指標(biāo)所表現(xiàn)出的趨勢(shì)雜亂無(wú)章。我不記得上一次出現(xiàn)如此嚴(yán)重的分歧是在什么時(shí)候。有些指標(biāo)表現(xiàn)出非常強(qiáng)烈的看漲跡象,有些則強(qiáng)烈看跌,有些指標(biāo)出現(xiàn)了通常只有在預(yù)期會(huì)發(fā)生劇烈波動(dòng)的時(shí)候才有的表現(xiàn)。在這種混亂的情況下,你只能說(shuō)市場(chǎng)肯定會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng),只是我們不知道會(huì)朝哪個(gè)方向波動(dòng)。”

未來(lái)幾天,投資者有哪一點(diǎn)是可以確信的?弗雷德里克表示:“市場(chǎng)不會(huì)風(fēng)平浪靜,不起波瀾。”

弗雷德里克等策略師正在密切關(guān)注期權(quán)和波動(dòng)率指標(biāo)(又稱恐慌指標(biāo)),他發(fā)現(xiàn),對(duì)于波動(dòng)率指標(biāo)的公開(kāi)利率看跌/看漲期權(quán)比率周五達(dá)到了3月以來(lái)的最高水平。然而,他指出指數(shù)期權(quán)(通常顯示更多機(jī)構(gòu)活動(dòng))可能意味著當(dāng)前存在針對(duì)下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的對(duì)沖交易。

現(xiàn)在距離投票日臨近,投資者坐立不安,而且有市場(chǎng)觀察家正在嘗試預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的走勢(shì):LPL公司的瑞恩?德特里克在周四指出,市場(chǎng)在大選前六天內(nèi)下跌超過(guò)3%的情況只出現(xiàn)過(guò)兩次(比如標(biāo)普500指數(shù)和道指在周四的表現(xiàn)),而且兩次選舉的結(jié)果都是現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)落選。

除此之外,在蘋(píng)果(Apple)和Facebook等公司公布了規(guī)模龐大的收益之后,科技股在上周五的表現(xiàn)卻令人失望,導(dǎo)致以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)當(dāng)天下跌近2.5%。

過(guò)去一兩周,美股市場(chǎng)整體上變得更加焦慮,原因包括在大選之前刺激政策可能以失敗告終,另外美國(guó)和全世界的新冠病例持續(xù)增加依舊令人不安,引發(fā)了進(jìn)一步增加限制措施的擔(dān)憂(有些國(guó)家已經(jīng)開(kāi)始了新一輪封鎖)。

弗雷德里克表示,事實(shí)上,如果沒(méi)有大選之前最后一刻的恐慌,本周新冠病例的增加一直是“市場(chǎng)下行波動(dòng)最大的刺激因素。”

LPL公司的杰夫?布赫賓德等策略師依舊認(rèn)為,只要大選結(jié)束并明確了獲勝者,市場(chǎng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈。他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“無(wú)論是拜登還是特朗普,我們認(rèn)為只要有了確定的結(jié)果對(duì)市場(chǎng)都有幫助。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Buckle up, investors: it might be a rough few days.

The S&P 500 "could easily dip into correction territory on Monday, it wouldn’t be surprising if that happened," says Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab's vice president of trading and derivatives. The S&P 500 would need to touch 3,222 points to register a 10% correction from its previous high on Sept. 2. On Friday, the index closed down 1.2% at 3,269.96, about 1.4% above correction territory.

To be sure, it's been a rocky week in the markets heading into Election Day on Nov. 3: With the Dow down 6.5% for the week (and S&P 500 down 5.6%), markets just booked their worst one-week drop since the throes of the pandemic back in March.

Up until recent weeks, markets had felt more comfortable that there wouldn't be a contested election, Schwab's Frederick suggests, but now, it looks as if some investors believe the race is tighter. With conflicting views in the markets, Frederick says he's seeing a mixed bag of signals, and there could be moves up or down.

"The indicators I follow are just all over the map, I can’t remember the last time there was such huge disagreement," he tells Fortune. "I’ve got some indicators showing me very strong bullish signs, I’ve got some showing me very strong bearish signs, and some that are showing things they typically don’t show unless there’s high volatility expected. When you get a mix like that, about all you can say is that we know there’s going to be movement, we just don’t know which direction."

The one thing investors can count on in the next few days? "Things are not going to be calm and lazy and quiet," suggests Frederick.

Strategists like Frederick are watching options and the VIX, or fear gauge, noting that the open interest put/call ratio for the VIX was at its highest level since March on Friday. However, he notes index options (which typically show more institutional activity) might be signaling some hedging for the downside going on.

To be sure, with the election a mere two trading days away, investors are antsy, and some market observers are trying to read the tea leaves: Only twice have markets shed more than 3% in a day within six days of an election (as the S&P 500 and Dow both did on Thursday), and both times the incumbent lost, LPL's Ryan Detrick pointed out Thursday.

Add to that a disappointing day on Friday for tech stocks following big earnings from the likes of Apple and Facebook, which dragged the tech-heavy Nasdaq nearly 2.5% lower on Friday.

Markets overall have become increasingly anxious in the past week or two as talks of a stimulus deal before the election fizzled out, and more concerning still, cases of the coronavirus in the U.S. and worldwide continue to rise, sparking fears of further restrictions (some countries have already begun another round of lockdowns).

Indeed, absent last-minute jitters over the election, the uptick in the virus cases this week has been "the biggest catalyst for the downside moves," says Frederick.

Still, strategists like LPL's Jeff Buchbinder argue we'll see a rally after election once a clear winner is named—"Whether it’s Biden or Trump, we think that clarity will help," he tells Fortune.

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)為財(cái)富媒體知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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