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美國(guó)外賣(mài)三足鼎立格局形成,配送費(fèi)會(huì)漲嗎?

Danielle Abril
2020-07-09

消費(fèi)者的擔(dān)憂是,只有百花齊放才會(huì)物美價(jià)廉,寡頭壟斷只會(huì)店大欺客。

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據(jù)報(bào)道,Uber有意以26.5億美元收購(gòu)它在美國(guó)外賣(mài)市場(chǎng)上的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Postmates,這也讓競(jìng)爭(zhēng)本就十分激烈的外賣(mài)市場(chǎng)愈發(fā)白熱化。雖然收購(gòu)之后,市面上的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)少了一家,但消費(fèi)者關(guān)心的問(wèn)題是,只有百花齊放才會(huì)物美價(jià)廉,寡頭壟斷只會(huì)店大欺客——我以后要想點(diǎn)一份披薩、炒粉或者卷餅什么的,是不是就要向平臺(tái)支付更高的跑腿費(fèi)了?

在三位分析師看來(lái),從某種角度看,這是很有可能的。

投行機(jī)構(gòu)D.A. Davidson的分析師湯姆?懷特對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示:“從中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,我認(rèn)為行業(yè)整合將導(dǎo)致外賣(mài)食品價(jià)格上漲。因?yàn)檫@些企業(yè)也是需要盈利的?!?/p>

有分析師表示,下一步,消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)的促銷活動(dòng)減少了,或者是配送費(fèi)用增加了,這些都會(huì)是正?,F(xiàn)象。即便沒(méi)有Postmates和Grubhub等平臺(tái)被收購(gòu)的事,這種改變也很可能依然會(huì)發(fā)生。(上個(gè)月,歐洲的Just Eat Takeaway公司同意以73億美元收購(gòu)Grubhub。)

投行機(jī)構(gòu)Needham & Co的分析師布拉德·埃里克森也表示:“Uber的態(tài)度很明顯,促銷已經(jīng)是過(guò)去的事情了。我的觀點(diǎn)是,隨著這些企業(yè)越做越大,促銷活動(dòng)也越來(lái)越少?!?/p>

過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,由于很多人待在家里躲疫情的緣故,Uber Eats、DoorDash和Postmates等外賣(mài)平臺(tái)的業(yè)務(wù)迎來(lái)了爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。與此同時(shí),美國(guó)也有很多城市規(guī)定餐館不得開(kāi)放堂食,只能做外賣(mài)業(yè)務(wù)。不過(guò)盡管各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)的業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)迅速,這些平臺(tái)的虧損額仍然是個(gè)天文數(shù)字。這是因?yàn)檫@些平臺(tái)前期都采取了賠本賺吆喝的策略,一邊給予消費(fèi)者大量折扣,一邊還要花錢(qián)補(bǔ)貼騎手,虧損也就在情理之中了。

新冠疫情帶火了美國(guó)的外賣(mài)行業(yè),不過(guò)他們?nèi)匀恍枰鳒p開(kāi)支,想方設(shè)法朝盈利的方向努力——就跟網(wǎng)約車行業(yè)一樣,一開(kāi)始采用的都是賠本引流戰(zhàn)術(shù)。當(dāng)中小平臺(tái)被絞殺殆盡后,就該考慮盈利的事兒了。

經(jīng)紀(jì)公司AB Bernstein的分析師馬克?施穆利克表示,從網(wǎng)約車市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以推測(cè),外賣(mài)市場(chǎng)的配送費(fèi)很可能也不會(huì)搞“一刀切”的提價(jià),而是會(huì)采取“一城一策”的戰(zhàn)略,由平臺(tái)決定在哪些城市先減少促銷活動(dòng)和提高配送費(fèi)。在接手了Postmates和它的用戶群之后,Uber Eats很可能會(huì)在一些以前一直難以火起來(lái)的市場(chǎng)打開(kāi)局面,比如洛杉磯、圣地亞哥、鳳凰城和拉斯維加斯等城市。

施穆利克認(rèn)為:“變化會(huì)首先在大城市里出現(xiàn)。這些公司會(huì)展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),而且他們會(huì)決定先在哪些城市進(jìn)行價(jià)格調(diào)整。”

懷特指出,各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)可能會(huì)在開(kāi)源和節(jié)流上同時(shí)發(fā)力,既削減營(yíng)銷成本——比如取消免配送費(fèi)政策,又提高配送費(fèi),以促進(jìn)盈利。現(xiàn)在,美國(guó)外賣(mài)市場(chǎng)已呈現(xiàn)Grubhub、Uber Eats和DoorDash三足鼎立的局面,它們各自都要找到增加收入的方法??紤]到疫情給餐飲行業(yè)的生存帶來(lái)了不小的壓力,各大平臺(tái)不太可能會(huì)增加餐館的負(fù)擔(dān)。這樣一來(lái),就只能靠消費(fèi)者的“轉(zhuǎn)移支付”了。

埃里克森卻并不同意這種看法。他認(rèn)為,促銷活動(dòng)的減少(最近美國(guó)各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)的促銷活動(dòng)已經(jīng)不那么常見(jiàn)了),再加上需求的增長(zhǎng),和整合帶來(lái)的效率提高,已經(jīng)足以讓這些平臺(tái)走上盈利的道路了。他還表示,各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)都意識(shí)到了用戶對(duì)價(jià)格的敏感性。在很多情況下,提高配送費(fèi)用,就意味著用戶會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)投其他平臺(tái)的懷抱。

埃里克森表示:“這些公司一直在測(cè)試消費(fèi)者的價(jià)格敏感性,所以他們對(duì)什么能做、什么不能做有清醒的認(rèn)識(shí)。當(dāng)他們談?dòng)麊?wèn)題是,他們談的并不是提高消費(fèi)者的配送費(fèi)?!?/p>

Uber此前曾嘗試收購(gòu)過(guò)Grubhub,只不過(guò)由于反壟斷因素而失敗了。埃里克森說(shuō),出于同樣的考慮,Uber很可能會(huì)保持低調(diào),不會(huì)很快提高價(jià)格。如果反壟斷機(jī)構(gòu)的調(diào)查再次啟動(dòng),Uber眼下的這筆收購(gòu)有可能又會(huì)被推遲幾個(gè)月。

施穆利克表示,雖然消費(fèi)者以后能享受到免配送費(fèi)的機(jī)會(huì)可能越來(lái)越少了,但這筆收購(gòu)對(duì)消費(fèi)者總歸還是有利的。

“消費(fèi)者可能花了很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間,還沒(méi)法決定在這些APP上吃什么。不過(guò)選擇越少,大家決定自己想什么就越簡(jiǎn)單了?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:隋遠(yuǎn)洙

據(jù)報(bào)道,Uber有意以26.5億美元收購(gòu)它在美國(guó)外賣(mài)市場(chǎng)上的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Postmates,這也讓競(jìng)爭(zhēng)本就十分激烈的外賣(mài)市場(chǎng)愈發(fā)白熱化。雖然收購(gòu)之后,市面上的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)少了一家,但消費(fèi)者關(guān)心的問(wèn)題是,只有百花齊放才會(huì)物美價(jià)廉,寡頭壟斷只會(huì)店大欺客——我以后要想點(diǎn)一份披薩、炒粉或者卷餅什么的,是不是就要向平臺(tái)支付更高的跑腿費(fèi)了?

在三位分析師看來(lái),從某種角度看,這是很有可能的。

投行機(jī)構(gòu)D.A. Davidson的分析師湯姆?懷特對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示:“從中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,我認(rèn)為行業(yè)整合將導(dǎo)致外賣(mài)食品價(jià)格上漲。因?yàn)檫@些企業(yè)也是需要盈利的?!?/p>

有分析師表示,下一步,消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)的促銷活動(dòng)減少了,或者是配送費(fèi)用增加了,這些都會(huì)是正常現(xiàn)象。即便沒(méi)有Postmates和Grubhub等平臺(tái)被收購(gòu)的事,這種改變也很可能依然會(huì)發(fā)生。(上個(gè)月,歐洲的Just Eat Takeaway公司同意以73億美元收購(gòu)Grubhub。)

投行機(jī)構(gòu)Needham & Co的分析師布拉德·埃里克森也表示:“Uber的態(tài)度很明顯,促銷已經(jīng)是過(guò)去的事情了。我的觀點(diǎn)是,隨著這些企業(yè)越做越大,促銷活動(dòng)也越來(lái)越少。”

過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,由于很多人待在家里躲疫情的緣故,Uber Eats、DoorDash和Postmates等外賣(mài)平臺(tái)的業(yè)務(wù)迎來(lái)了爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。與此同時(shí),美國(guó)也有很多城市規(guī)定餐館不得開(kāi)放堂食,只能做外賣(mài)業(yè)務(wù)。不過(guò)盡管各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)的業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)迅速,這些平臺(tái)的虧損額仍然是個(gè)天文數(shù)字。這是因?yàn)檫@些平臺(tái)前期都采取了賠本賺吆喝的策略,一邊給予消費(fèi)者大量折扣,一邊還要花錢(qián)補(bǔ)貼騎手,虧損也就在情理之中了。

新冠疫情帶火了美國(guó)的外賣(mài)行業(yè),不過(guò)他們?nèi)匀恍枰鳒p開(kāi)支,想方設(shè)法朝盈利的方向努力——就跟網(wǎng)約車行業(yè)一樣,一開(kāi)始采用的都是賠本引流戰(zhàn)術(shù)。當(dāng)中小平臺(tái)被絞殺殆盡后,就該考慮盈利的事兒了。

經(jīng)紀(jì)公司AB Bernstein的分析師馬克?施穆利克表示,從網(wǎng)約車市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以推測(cè),外賣(mài)市場(chǎng)的配送費(fèi)很可能也不會(huì)搞“一刀切”的提價(jià),而是會(huì)采取“一城一策”的戰(zhàn)略,由平臺(tái)決定在哪些城市先減少促銷活動(dòng)和提高配送費(fèi)。在接手了Postmates和它的用戶群之后,Uber Eats很可能會(huì)在一些以前一直難以火起來(lái)的市場(chǎng)打開(kāi)局面,比如洛杉磯、圣地亞哥、鳳凰城和拉斯維加斯等城市。

施穆利克認(rèn)為:“變化會(huì)首先在大城市里出現(xiàn)。這些公司會(huì)展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),而且他們會(huì)決定先在哪些城市進(jìn)行價(jià)格調(diào)整?!?/p>

懷特指出,各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)可能會(huì)在開(kāi)源和節(jié)流上同時(shí)發(fā)力,既削減營(yíng)銷成本——比如取消免配送費(fèi)政策,又提高配送費(fèi),以促進(jìn)盈利。現(xiàn)在,美國(guó)外賣(mài)市場(chǎng)已呈現(xiàn)Grubhub、Uber Eats和DoorDash三足鼎立的局面,它們各自都要找到增加收入的方法。考慮到疫情給餐飲行業(yè)的生存帶來(lái)了不小的壓力,各大平臺(tái)不太可能會(huì)增加餐館的負(fù)擔(dān)。這樣一來(lái),就只能靠消費(fèi)者的“轉(zhuǎn)移支付”了。

埃里克森卻并不同意這種看法。他認(rèn)為,促銷活動(dòng)的減少(最近美國(guó)各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)的促銷活動(dòng)已經(jīng)不那么常見(jiàn)了),再加上需求的增長(zhǎng),和整合帶來(lái)的效率提高,已經(jīng)足以讓這些平臺(tái)走上盈利的道路了。他還表示,各大外賣(mài)平臺(tái)都意識(shí)到了用戶對(duì)價(jià)格的敏感性。在很多情況下,提高配送費(fèi)用,就意味著用戶會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)投其他平臺(tái)的懷抱。

埃里克森表示:“這些公司一直在測(cè)試消費(fèi)者的價(jià)格敏感性,所以他們對(duì)什么能做、什么不能做有清醒的認(rèn)識(shí)。當(dāng)他們談?dòng)麊?wèn)題是,他們談的并不是提高消費(fèi)者的配送費(fèi)?!?/p>

Uber此前曾嘗試收購(gòu)過(guò)Grubhub,只不過(guò)由于反壟斷因素而失敗了。埃里克森說(shuō),出于同樣的考慮,Uber很可能會(huì)保持低調(diào),不會(huì)很快提高價(jià)格。如果反壟斷機(jī)構(gòu)的調(diào)查再次啟動(dòng),Uber眼下的這筆收購(gòu)有可能又會(huì)被推遲幾個(gè)月。

施穆利克表示,雖然消費(fèi)者以后能享受到免配送費(fèi)的機(jī)會(huì)可能越來(lái)越少了,但這筆收購(gòu)對(duì)消費(fèi)者總歸還是有利的。

“消費(fèi)者可能花了很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間,還沒(méi)法決定在這些APP上吃什么。不過(guò)選擇越少,大家決定自己想什么就越簡(jiǎn)單了。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:隋遠(yuǎn)洙

Uber’s planned $2.65 billion acquisition of rival Postmates is turning up the heat in an already hot food-delivery market. But as the number of competitors shrinks, one question remains: Will fewer delivery services result in higher prices for people who want their pizza, pad thai, and tacos delivered to their homes?

The answer, according to three analysts is: probably, in some form.

“Over the intermediate and long term I would expect that consolidation will lead to higher prices for diners,” Tom White, analyst for investment banking firm D.A. Davidson, told Fortune. “These businesses need to get profitable.”

Analysts said consumers will likely see either fewer promotions for free delivery or an increase in delivery fees in the future. But they said such changes would have likely occurred even without the recent proposed acquisitions of Postmates and Grubhub, which Europe’s Just Eat Takeaway agreed to buy for $7.3 billion last month.

“Uber has been pretty clear that [promotions are] a thing of the past,” said Brad Erickson, an analyst at investment banking firm Needham & Co. “My view is, as these businesses get bigger, it’ll happen less and less.”

Food delivery companies like Uber Eats, DoorDash, and Postmates have experienced explosive growth in the past few months, as more people stayed home because of the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, more restaurants turned to the services following city mandates that allowed eateries to fulfill only takeout and delivery orders, analysts said. But the rapidly growing food delivery services are still suffering from big losses, mainly the result of steep diner discounts and big driver incentives.

Though the coronavirus has altered the outlook for these services, they’re still expected to crack down on expenses and start working toward profitability—following a similar approach to ride-sharing services.

Mark Shmulik, analyst at brokerage firm AB Bernstein, said that as seen with ride-sharing, price changes will likely happen city by city, as food delivery services determine where they can pull back on promotions or raise delivery fees. Acquiring Postmates and its clientele will likely help Uber Eats in places—including Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, and Las Vegas—where it has historically struggled to gain popularity.

“This is going to play out on a metro-market level,” Shmulik said. “These companies are going to battle it out, and they’re going to pick and choose which cities’ [prices]” will change.

Food delivery services will likely have to both cut some marketing costs, such as free delivery promotions, and raise delivery fee prices to reach profitability, White said. With three large players, Grubhub, Uber Eats, and DoorDash, in competition, each will have to find some way to increase revenue. Given the economic pressures the coronavirus has placed on restaurants, White said, the services likely won’t increase fees for eateries. Therefore, consumers will likely have to pay more.

But Erickson disagreed. He said fewer promotions, which already aren’t as common these days, combined with increasing efficiency fueled by growing demand and consolidation will be enough to get these companies on the path to profitability. He added that food delivery services are aware of their customers’ price sensitivity, and that driving up delivery fees in a lot of cases means driving away customers.

“[The companies] test that all the time, so they have a keen sense of what they can do and can’t do,” Erickson said. “When they talk about getting to profitability, it’s not about raising the [delivery fee] for consumers.”

Because Uber’s proposed acquisition of Grubhub reportedly fell apart owing to antitrust concerns, Erickson said Uber will likely lie low and not raise prices anytime soon. An antitrust investigation could postpone the deal for several months, at least.

At the end of the day, though consumers may have less opportunities for free delivery, the acquisition works in their favor, said Shmulik.

“Consumers probably spend way too much time figuring out what to eat on these apps,” he said. “The fewer there are, the simpler it is to figure out what we want to eat.”

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