美國經(jīng)濟(jì)"V型反轉(zhuǎn)"的希望徹底落空了
Lance Lambert
2020-07-08
5月，美國各州紛紛解封，消費者支出出現(xiàn)了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄增長，成百上千萬人重新找到了工作。人們一度以為，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)度過“拐點”，即將迎來“V”字型復(fù)蘇。
但不久之后，在已經(jīng)開始復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)的南部和西部各州，疫情出現(xiàn)迅速惡化。如今，得克薩斯州部分醫(yī)院的ICU病房已經(jīng)不堪重負(fù)，因此該州已經(jīng)關(guān)閉了酒吧，并限制餐廳就餐人數(shù)。佛羅里達(dá)州關(guān)閉了海灘，并限制酒吧的酒水飲料銷售，加州部分縣也再次關(guān)閉了酒吧。
穆迪分析首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?贊迪表示：“我認(rèn)為[出現(xiàn)‘V’字型復(fù)蘇的]可能性為零。現(xiàn)在真正的風(fēng)險是經(jīng)濟(jì)再次出現(xiàn)了倒退和收縮。”他說，疫情反彈讓“V”字型復(fù)蘇（即迅速下跌后大幅反彈）徹底成為泡影。
上周二，美國銀行發(fā)布了一篇報告，標(biāo)題是“從‘V’字型到‘L’型或‘W’型”。美國銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家寫道，疫情惡化的亞利桑那州、佛羅里達(dá)州、得克薩斯州、南卡羅來納州和加利福尼亞州，占美國GDP的37%，這些州可能拖累全國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。
報告繼續(xù)寫道：“除了幾個明顯的例外以外，經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟似乎已經(jīng)開啟了最初的‘V’字型復(fù)蘇……很可惜，重啟的代價是疫情復(fù)發(fā)。我們認(rèn)為，疫情達(dá)到最高峰時，近一半美國人會受到影響。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)一半在緩慢開放，另一半則在緩慢關(guān)閉，所以整體上會拉平經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長曲線。”
美國勞工統(tǒng)計局將在周五發(fā)布六月份的失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)，可以幫助我們理解六月份的復(fù)蘇速度。贊迪告訴《財富》雜志，他預(yù)測失業(yè)率將從13.3%下降到11.5%。如果他的預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確，這將是自4月份達(dá)到14.7%的最高峰之后，美國失業(yè)率連續(xù)第二個月下降。
2月份，美國失業(yè)率只有3.5%，為50年最低，但僅僅兩個月時間，到4月份就猛漲到80年最高的14.7%。現(xiàn)在，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅反彈的可能性越來越低。 （財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：Biz
5月，美國各州紛紛解封，消費者支出出現(xiàn)了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄增長，成百上千萬人重新找到了工作。人們一度以為，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)度過“拐點”，即將迎來“V”字型復(fù)蘇。
但不久之后，在已經(jīng)開始復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)的南部和西部各州，疫情出現(xiàn)迅速惡化。如今，得克薩斯州部分醫(yī)院的ICU病房已經(jīng)不堪重負(fù)，因此該州已經(jīng)關(guān)閉了酒吧，并限制餐廳就餐人數(shù)。佛羅里達(dá)州關(guān)閉了海灘，并限制酒吧的酒水飲料銷售，加州部分縣也再次關(guān)閉了酒吧。
穆迪分析首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?贊迪表示：“我認(rèn)為[出現(xiàn)‘V’字型復(fù)蘇的]可能性為零。現(xiàn)在真正的風(fēng)險是經(jīng)濟(jì)再次出現(xiàn)了倒退和收縮。”他說，疫情反彈讓“V”字型復(fù)蘇（即迅速下跌后大幅反彈）徹底成為泡影。
上周二，美國銀行發(fā)布了一篇報告，標(biāo)題是“從‘V’字型到‘L’型或‘W’型”。美國銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家寫道，疫情惡化的亞利桑那州、佛羅里達(dá)州、得克薩斯州、南卡羅來納州和加利福尼亞州，占美國GDP的37%，這些州可能拖累全國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。
報告繼續(xù)寫道：“除了幾個明顯的例外以外，經(jīng)濟(jì)重啟似乎已經(jīng)開啟了最初的‘V’字型復(fù)蘇……很可惜，重啟的代價是疫情復(fù)發(fā)。我們認(rèn)為，疫情達(dá)到最高峰時，近一半美國人會受到影響。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)一半在緩慢開放，另一半則在緩慢關(guān)閉，所以整體上會拉平經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長曲線。”
美國勞工統(tǒng)計局將在周五發(fā)布六月份的失業(yè)率數(shù)據(jù)，可以幫助我們理解六月份的復(fù)蘇速度。贊迪告訴《財富》雜志，他預(yù)測失業(yè)率將從13.3%下降到11.5%。如果他的預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確，這將是自4月份達(dá)到14.7%的最高峰之后，美國失業(yè)率連續(xù)第二個月下降。
2月份，美國失業(yè)率只有3.5%，為50年最低，但僅僅兩個月時間，到4月份就猛漲到80年最高的14.7%。現(xiàn)在，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅反彈的可能性越來越低。 （財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：Biz
As states eased lockdowns in May, consumer spending saw a record increase and millions were rehired. For a moment, it looked like the economy had turned a corner and a “V”-shaped recovery was within reach.
But that was before cases of the deadly virus soared throughout Southern and Western states that had begun to reopen. Now, Texas has closed bars and reduced restaurant occupancy as the state hits max ICU capacity in some hospitals. And Florida has closed some beaches and restricted alcohol sales in bars, and some California counties are also closing bars again.
"I'd say zero chance [of a “V”-shaped recovery]. The real risk now is we start backsliding and start contracting again," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The resurgence of the virus, he says, has eliminated the potential for a “V” (a steep drop followed by an equally sharp rebound).
On Tuesday, Bank of America put out a report with the headline "From a ‘V’ to an ‘L’ or ‘W.’” Arizona, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and California—where confirmed COVID-19 cases are surging—account for 37% of U.S. GDP and could pull down nationwide economic growth, the Bank of America economists wrote.
"With a few notable exceptions, the reopening seems to have triggered an initial “V”-shaped recovery... Unfortunately, the reopening has come at a cost: The virus is back," the report continued. "By the time the growth in the virus peaks, we assume roughly half of the country will be impacted. With half of the country slowly opening and half slowly closing, the economy could flatten out overall."
On Friday the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June unemployment rate—giving us a better understanding of the rate of recovery in June. Zandi told Fortune he projects the unemployment rate falling from 13.3% to 11.5%. If correct, it would mark the second consecutive month of a falling jobless rate after it peaked at 14.7% in April.
It took only two months for the jobless rate to go from a 50-year low of 3.5% in February to an 80-year high of 14.7% in April. But now, bouncing back sharply to make the other side of that “V” seems increasingly unlikely.
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