漲到令人懷疑人生，美股迎來自1998年以來表現最好的季度
美聯社
2020-07-02
周二，華爾街用一輪上漲結束了自1998年以來業績最好的一個季度。在令投資者驚嘆不已的這三個月里，美股從暴跌之后迅速反彈回到歷史高點。
標普500指數上漲1.5%，季度漲幅接近20%。今年前三個月，標普500指數下跌20%，是其自2008年金融危機以來最糟糕的一個季度。新冠疫情導致停工和成百上千萬人失業，是導致股市暴跌的罪魁禍首。
Baird公司的投資策略師威利?德爾維徹說：“這是自20世紀30年代以來第一次出現相鄰兩個季度大漲大跌的行情。這是史無前例的。”
美國股市在第二季度的高歌猛進，是因為投資者沒有受到可怕的失業數據的影響，并且他們日益希望經濟能夠相對較快地走出突如其來的嚴重衰退。這種希望似乎很有預見性，因為上一季度的報告顯示，各地政府正在逐步放松旨在抑制新冠病毒傳播的封鎖令，因此雇主開始恢復招聘，零售銷售也出現了反彈。
美聯儲和美國國會承諾拿出大量救助資金，引燃了第二季度股市上漲的行情。低利率通常會促使投資者從低收益的債券轉向投資股票，而美聯儲已經將短期利率下調至接近零的歷史新低。
但華爾街的大部分人都表示，不要指望第二季度的暴漲行情能夠重復。感染人數的持續增長已經迫使多個州暫停解除限制令。由于美國確診病例激增，因此歐盟已經禁止美國游客入境，這不禁讓人懷疑美國經濟是否會像市場預期的那樣迅速復蘇。這也解釋了為什么6月市場的增長勢頭會有所降溫。
周二，美國首席傳染病專家安東尼?福奇博士警告，如果美國民眾不從現在開始遵從公共衛生建議，每日新報告感染病例可能激增到10萬例。
除了新冠疫情以外，分析師還指出即將到來的美國大選和其他風險可能讓市場陷入低迷。許多投資者認為民主黨有可能在國會選舉和總統大選中大獲全勝。如果這種假設成真，則意味著稅率將提高，從而壓縮企業的利潤。
周二，標普500指數上漲47.05點至3,100.29點。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲217.08點至25,812.88點，漲幅0.9%。期間還曾短暫下跌120點。納斯達克綜合指數上漲184.61點至10,058.77點，漲幅1.9%。
標普500指數在3月末下跌近34%，如今距離2月的歷史最高點只相差不到8.4%。本月初，標普500指數一度上漲近4.5%。
周五，美股上漲的主力是科技股、醫療股和金融股。有報告稱本月消費者信心增長勢頭遠超預期，消息傳出后，投資者大舉買入。
Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management公司的首席投資策略師布倫特?舒特表示：“總體上來說，市場在對超出預期的經濟數據做出反應。”
舒特指出，美國可能不會出現全國性停工、激進的貨幣政策和對疫苗更快問世的期望，支撐著市場的走勢。他說：“最省力的方法依舊是向前走兩步，后退一步。”
第二季度，科技股依舊穩健，漲幅達到27.6%，僅次于非必需消費品行業（上漲30.2%）。第一季度遭遇重創的航空公司和郵輪運營商的交易非常動蕩。
蘋果公司依舊是標普500指數中最有價值的公司，第二季度股價上漲43.5%，美國航空公司第二季度上漲7.2%，皇家加勒比郵輪公司的股價上漲了56.4%。當然，這些公司的股票同比依舊下跌了近60%。
第二季度，原油價格也出現了與股市類似的反彈，但依舊遠低于疫情之前的水平。能源公司強勢回歸，第二季度標普500指數漲幅最大的公司包括阿帕奇、哈里伯頓和馬拉松石油公司。
周二，每桶美國原油的價格下跌43美分至39.27美元，但與第一季度末相比依舊上漲了近一倍。這與4月也有著天壤之別，當時，由于市場擔心需求驟降將導致無處存放未使用的石油，使美國原油市場部分石油的價格一度跌至0美元以下。布倫特原油價格下跌56美分至每桶41.15美元。
周一晚些時候，美國10年期國債收益率從0.63%提高到0.66%，也已經從投資者最擔心經濟衰退時的低點有所反彈。據Tradeweb顯示，美國10年期國債收益率在3月創下歷史新低，一度跌至0.50%以下。其收益率通常會隨著投資者對經濟和通貨膨脹的預期發生變化。
歐洲股市的表現喜憂參半，而亞洲股市出現上漲。（財富中文網）
翻譯：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
周二，華爾街用一輪上漲結束了自1998年以來業績最好的一個季度。在令投資者驚嘆不已的這三個月里，美股從暴跌之后迅速反彈回到歷史高點。
標普500指數上漲1.5%，季度漲幅接近20%。今年前三個月，標普500指數下跌20%，是其自2008年金融危機以來最糟糕的一個季度。新冠疫情導致停工和成百上千萬人失業，是導致股市暴跌的罪魁禍首。
Baird公司的投資策略師威利?德爾維徹說：“這是自20世紀30年代以來第一次出現相鄰兩個季度大漲大跌的行情。這是史無前例的。”
美國股市在第二季度的高歌猛進，是因為投資者沒有受到可怕的失業數據的影響，并且他們日益希望經濟能夠相對較快地走出突如其來的嚴重衰退。這種希望似乎很有預見性，因為上一季度的報告顯示，各地政府正在逐步放松旨在抑制新冠病毒傳播的封鎖令，因此雇主開始恢復招聘，零售銷售也出現了反彈。
美聯儲和美國國會承諾拿出大量救助資金，引燃了第二季度股市上漲的行情。低利率通常會促使投資者從低收益的債券轉向投資股票，而美聯儲已經將短期利率下調至接近零的歷史新低。
但華爾街的大部分人都表示，不要指望第二季度的暴漲行情能夠重復。感染人數的持續增長已經迫使多個州暫停解除限制令。由于美國確診病例激增，因此歐盟已經禁止美國游客入境，這不禁讓人懷疑美國經濟是否會像市場預期的那樣迅速復蘇。這也解釋了為什么6月市場的增長勢頭會有所降溫。
周二，美國首席傳染病專家安東尼?福奇博士警告，如果美國民眾不從現在開始遵從公共衛生建議，每日新報告感染病例可能激增到10萬例。
除了新冠疫情以外，分析師還指出即將到來的美國大選和其他風險可能讓市場陷入低迷。許多投資者認為民主黨有可能在國會選舉和總統大選中大獲全勝。如果這種假設成真，則意味著稅率將提高，從而壓縮企業的利潤。
周二，標普500指數上漲47.05點至3,100.29點。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲217.08點至25,812.88點，漲幅0.9%。期間還曾短暫下跌120點。納斯達克綜合指數上漲184.61點至10,058.77點，漲幅1.9%。
標普500指數在3月末下跌近34%，如今距離2月的歷史最高點只相差不到8.4%。本月初，標普500指數一度上漲近4.5%。
周五，美股上漲的主力是科技股、醫療股和金融股。有報告稱本月消費者信心增長勢頭遠超預期，消息傳出后，投資者大舉買入。
Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management公司的首席投資策略師布倫特?舒特表示：“總體上來說，市場在對超出預期的經濟數據做出反應。”
舒特指出，美國可能不會出現全國性停工、激進的貨幣政策和對疫苗更快問世的期望，支撐著市場的走勢。他說：“最省力的方法依舊是向前走兩步，后退一步。”
第二季度，科技股依舊穩健，漲幅達到27.6%，僅次于非必需消費品行業（上漲30.2%）。第一季度遭遇重創的航空公司和郵輪運營商的交易非常動蕩。
蘋果公司依舊是標普500指數中最有價值的公司，第二季度股價上漲43.5%，美國航空公司第二季度上漲7.2%，皇家加勒比郵輪公司的股價上漲了56.4%。當然，這些公司的股票同比依舊下跌了近60%。
第二季度，原油價格也出現了與股市類似的反彈，但依舊遠低于疫情之前的水平。能源公司強勢回歸，第二季度標普500指數漲幅最大的公司包括阿帕奇、哈里伯頓和馬拉松石油公司。
周二，每桶美國原油的價格下跌43美分至39.27美元，但與第一季度末相比依舊上漲了近一倍。這與4月也有著天壤之別，當時，由于市場擔心需求驟降將導致無處存放未使用的石油，使美國原油市場部分石油的價格一度跌至0美元以下。布倫特原油價格下跌56美分至每桶41.15美元。
周一晚些時候，美國10年期國債收益率從0.63%提高到0.66%，也已經從投資者最擔心經濟衰退時的低點有所反彈。據Tradeweb顯示，美國10年期國債收益率在3月創下歷史新低，一度跌至0.50%以下。其收益率通常會隨著投資者對經濟和通貨膨脹的預期發生變化。
歐洲股市的表現喜憂參半，而亞洲股市出現上漲。（財富中文網）
翻譯：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
Wall Street capped its best quarter since 1998 Tuesday with more gains, a fitting end to a stunning three months for investors as the market screamed back toward its record heights after a torrid plunge.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.5%, bringing its gain for the quarter to nearly 20%. That rebound followed a 20% drop in the first three months of the year, the market's worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis. The plunge came as the coronavirus pandemic ground the economy to a halt and millions of people lost their jobs.
“It's the first time you've had back-to-back (quarters) like this since the 1930s,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird. “It's pretty unprecedented.”
The whiplash that ripped through markets in the second quarter came as investors looked beyond dire unemployment numbers and became increasingly hopeful that the economy can pull out of its severe, sudden recession relatively quickly. The hopes looked prescient after reports during the quarter showed that employers resumed hiring again and retail sales rebounded as governments relaxed lockdown orders meant to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
The quarter’s gains were ignited by promises of massive amounts of aid from the Federal Reserve and Congress. Low interest rates generally push investors toward stocks and away from the low payments made by bonds, and the Federal Reserve has pinned short-term interest rates at their record low of nearly zero.
But most of Wall Street says not to expect anything close to a repeat of the rocking second quarter. A rise in infections has several states pausing their lifting of restrictions. The surge in confirmed new cases, which has prompted the European Union to bar U.S. travelers from entry, is seeding doubts that the economic recovery can happen as quickly as markets had forecast. That helps explain why the market’s momentum cooled somewhat in June.
On Tuesday Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, warned that the number of daily new reported infections could surge to 100,000 if Americans don’t start following public health recommendations.
Beyond the coronavirus, analysts also point to the upcoming U.S. elections and other risks that could upset markets. If Democrats sweep Congress and the White House, which many investors see as at least possible, it could mean higher tax rates, which could weaken corporate profits.
The S&P 500 gained 47.05 points to 3,100.29 on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 217.08 points, or 0.9%, to 25,812.88. It had briefly been down 120 points. The Nasdaq composite climbed 184.61 points, or 1.9%, to 10,058.77.
The S&P 500 has rallied back to within nearly 8.4% of its record set in February, after being down nearly 34% in late March. At one point earlier this month, it had climbed as close as 4.5%.
Technology, health care and financial companies powered much of the market’s broad gains Friday. The buying accelerated after a report showed stronger-than-expected improvement in consumer confidence this month.
“Broadly speaking, the market is reacting to economic data that is better than expected,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.
Schutte said the market is being supported by the likelihood that there won’t be a nationwide shutdown again, aggressive monetary policy and hopes for a vaccine sooner rather than later. “The path of least resistance is still two steps forward, one step back,” he said.
The quarter featured steady gains in technology stocks, which climbed 27.6%, second only to the consumer discretionary sector's 30.2% gain. And airlines and cruise operators traded wildly after being battered for much of the first quarter.
Apple, once again the most valuable company in the S&P 500, gained 43.5% for the second quarter, American Airlines climbed 7.2% for the quarter, while Royal Caribbean Cruises vaulted 56.4%. Still, they each remain down nearly 60% for the year.
Crude oil had a similar rebound as stocks through the second quarter, though it’s still well below where it was before the pandemic struck. Energy companies mounted a solid comeback, with three of them — Apache, Halliburton and Marathon Oil — showing the biggest percentage gains in the S&P 500 for the quarter.
A barrel of U.S. crude oil slid 43 cents to settle at $39.27 Tuesday, but it’s still nearly double where it was at the end of the first quarter. It’s also in a different world from April, when prices in one corner of the U.S. crude market briefly went below zero amid worries that collapsing demand would leave nowhere to store all the unused oil. Brent crude oil fell 56 cents to settle at $41.15 a barrel.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 0.66% from 0.63% late Monday. It too has rallied back from its lows when recession worries were at their height. It set a record low in March when it briefly dipped below 0.50%, according to Tradeweb. The yield tends to move with investors' expectations for the economy and inflation.
European stocks closed mixed, and Asian markets finished higher.
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