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“整個(gè)上午都沒(méi)人來(lái)”:德國(guó)汽車經(jīng)銷商復(fù)工,但門可羅雀

David Meyer
2020-04-29

隨著疫情導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)副作用日益明顯,而且感染人數(shù)的發(fā)展軌跡依舊存在不確定性,因此歐洲的消費(fèi)者信心持續(xù)低迷。

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如果你開(kāi)放汽車展廳,結(jié)果沒(méi)有人來(lái)怎么辦?

這正是德國(guó)許多汽車經(jīng)銷商所面臨的兩難境地。根據(jù)德國(guó)各州政府的規(guī)定,汽車經(jīng)銷商獲準(zhǔn)在最近幾周陸續(xù)恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè)。

德國(guó)這個(gè)“汽車王國(guó)”為防控疫情從一個(gè)多月前開(kāi)始執(zhí)行封城措施,迫使該國(guó)汽車經(jīng)銷商暫停銷售。如今,大部分汽車展廳都已經(jīng)恢復(fù)開(kāi)放。一些小型店鋪和花店、DIY商店等個(gè)別零售行業(yè)也已經(jīng)恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè)。但這些展廳里門可羅雀。

上周三下午,位于法德邊境城市薩爾布呂肯的La Linea汽車展廳的經(jīng)理喬基姆·尼爾斯曼說(shuō)道:“從周一至今,我們的展廳可能只來(lái)了10位顧客?!痹谏夂玫臅r(shí)候,每天正常的客流量就有20至25人。

Damax Automobile Berlin的老板拉烏爾·博卡拉穆在上周三說(shuō)道:“今天上午沒(méi)有人光顧?!盌amax Automobile Berlin位于柏林威爾默斯多夫區(qū)。柏林政府當(dāng)天僅允許部分店鋪首批恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè)?!按蠹叶荚诟綦x。估計(jì)今年不會(huì)有太多業(yè)務(wù)。”

汽車經(jīng)銷商的遭遇凸顯出企業(yè)即使獲準(zhǔn)復(fù)工之后可能面臨的諸多問(wèn)題之一——隨著疫情導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)副作用日益明顯,而且新冠病毒感染人數(shù)的發(fā)展軌跡依舊存在不確定性,因此歐洲的消費(fèi)者信心持續(xù)低迷。

德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)

德國(guó)汽車行業(yè)的規(guī)模高達(dá)4,350億歐元,但一方面它并沒(méi)有擺脫柴油車排放造假丑聞的影響,同時(shí)還要面對(duì)日益嚴(yán)格的排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。對(duì)這個(gè)行業(yè)而言,形勢(shì)變得異常嚴(yán)峻。

尼爾斯曼說(shuō):“在疫情爆發(fā)之前,客戶拿不準(zhǔn)主意該買什么車:混合動(dòng)力車還是電動(dòng)汽車,或者柴油車。我想未來(lái)情況會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn),但本周,他們并不想在汽車或者在病毒問(wèn)題上犯任何錯(cuò)誤?!?/p>

德國(guó)獨(dú)立汽車經(jīng)銷商協(xié)會(huì)(Association of Independent Auto Dealers ,BVfK)似乎更加樂(lè)觀。該協(xié)會(huì)堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為有更多顧客來(lái)看車,但它也承認(rèn)客流量數(shù)據(jù)較疫情危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前有所下降。該行業(yè)組織的主席安斯加爾·克萊茵說(shuō):“形勢(shì)非常艱難,但我們保持樂(lè)觀?!?/p>

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),疫情危機(jī)確實(shí)對(duì)德國(guó)汽車行業(yè)和國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重影響。IHS Markit上周四發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,德國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平跌至歷史最低,比分析師擔(dān)心的情況更加糟糕。4月初,德國(guó)汽車牌照發(fā)放機(jī)構(gòu)表示,3月的汽車銷量年比下降了38%。今年3月,汽車行業(yè)資深人士、瑞士圣加侖大學(xué)的費(fèi)迪南德·杜登霍夫告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,西歐乘用車市場(chǎng)需要近十年時(shí)間才能恢復(fù)到危機(jī)之前的水平。

德國(guó)大部分工廠由于執(zhí)行了嚴(yán)格的衛(wèi)生和組織措施,因此沒(méi)有停工。但德國(guó)汽車工廠大部分在3月中旬停工,現(xiàn)在才開(kāi)始復(fù)工。例如,戴姆勒(Daimler)位于漢堡、柏林和斯圖加特的動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)工廠以及德累斯頓附近的卡門茨電池工廠,都在上周復(fù)工。

“不要冒險(xiǎn)”

德國(guó)實(shí)行聯(lián)邦制,因此各地取消隔離限制的進(jìn)度并不一致。德國(guó)總理安格拉·默克爾在上周四警告稱,一些州為了盡快恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì),可能會(huì)操之過(guò)急。德國(guó)政府在兩周前表示將謹(jǐn)慎放寬疫情防控限制措施。默克爾說(shuō):“不要拿我們已經(jīng)取得的成果冒險(xiǎn),以免疫情出現(xiàn)反撲。疫情還沒(méi)有到最后階段,而是才剛剛開(kāi)始。”

德國(guó)獨(dú)立汽車經(jīng)銷商協(xié)會(huì)主席克萊茵也批評(píng)了各州各行其是,零星允許汽車展廳重新開(kāi)放的做法;例如,薩爾蘭州在上周一宣布復(fù)工,柏林在上周三解除了封禁令,巴伐利亞將在這周一宣布復(fù)工??巳R茵說(shuō):“很可惜,這些行動(dòng)沒(méi)有統(tǒng)一的組織。問(wèn)題出在[德國(guó)的]聯(lián)邦制。由[聯(lián)邦]政府統(tǒng)一做出指示或許效果更好。”

“第二階段”

除了德國(guó)以外,如何執(zhí)行經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)這個(gè)問(wèn)題,在其他國(guó)家也引起了巨大爭(zhēng)議。

西班牙施行了歐洲最嚴(yán)格的封禁令。西班牙首相佩德羅·桑切斯警告,將“逐步緩慢”復(fù)工,并且一旦發(fā)現(xiàn)新一輪疫情爆發(fā)的跡象,可能會(huì)取消解封。

西班牙的新冠疫情非常嚴(yán)重,共有死亡病例超過(guò)22,000例,排在全球第三位。西班牙允許包括工廠和建筑工地在內(nèi)的部分“非必要”企業(yè)在復(fù)活節(jié)后復(fù)工。從上周日開(kāi)始,14歲以下兒童六周來(lái)首次被允許走出家門,在一名成年人的陪同下散步不超過(guò)一個(gè)小時(shí)。(沒(méi)錯(cuò),規(guī)定的時(shí)間非常精確。)

上周三,西班牙將“緊急狀態(tài)”延長(zhǎng)至5月9日?!熬o急狀態(tài)”授權(quán)政府執(zhí)行封鎖令。

與此同時(shí),意大利總理朱塞佩·孔蒂上周早些時(shí)候通過(guò)Facebook提醒國(guó)民,意大利即將取消封鎖令。意大利的封鎖令在歐洲持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)。他在上周一表示:“我們的合理預(yù)測(cè)是從5月4日開(kāi)始解封?!?/p>

到目前為止,意大利并沒(méi)有披露有關(guān)所謂的“第二階段”的詳細(xì)信息。

在復(fù)活節(jié)之后,政府向園藝商店、童裝零售店和書店開(kāi)了綠燈。在羅馬最大的大學(xué)之一羅馬第三大學(xué)的街道上,書店于上周重新開(kāi)始營(yíng)業(yè),但很少有顧客光臨。由于學(xué)校無(wú)限期停課,學(xué)生只能待在家里;經(jīng)過(guò)書店的人屈指可數(shù),而且人們都戴著口罩,沒(méi)有心情瀏覽書店的新書。

丹麥在歐洲國(guó)家中率先解封。丹麥政府在4月14日宣布學(xué)校復(fù)課,結(jié)果引發(fā)了混亂。家長(zhǎng)們組織起來(lái)抗議政府的決定,甚至建了一個(gè)Facebook群組,名字叫“我的孩子不要當(dāng)實(shí)驗(yàn)對(duì)象。”

不止丹麥人主張緩慢恢復(fù)正常生活。

德國(guó)商業(yè)游說(shuō)機(jī)構(gòu)呼吁在決定經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)時(shí)應(yīng)該極其謹(jǐn)慎,以免導(dǎo)致疫情第二輪爆發(fā)。德國(guó)工業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)主席迪特·肯普夫表示:“再來(lái)一次封城,將對(duì)德國(guó)產(chǎn)生無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)的后果?!?/p>

本文包括來(lái)自馬德里的伊恩·蒙特和來(lái)自羅馬的伯恩哈德·華納的補(bǔ)充報(bào)道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Biz

如果你開(kāi)放汽車展廳,結(jié)果沒(méi)有人來(lái)怎么辦?

這正是德國(guó)許多汽車經(jīng)銷商所面臨的兩難境地。根據(jù)德國(guó)各州政府的規(guī)定,汽車經(jīng)銷商獲準(zhǔn)在最近幾周陸續(xù)恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè)。

德國(guó)這個(gè)“汽車王國(guó)”為防控疫情從一個(gè)多月前開(kāi)始執(zhí)行封城措施,迫使該國(guó)汽車經(jīng)銷商暫停銷售。如今,大部分汽車展廳都已經(jīng)恢復(fù)開(kāi)放。一些小型店鋪和花店、DIY商店等個(gè)別零售行業(yè)也已經(jīng)恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè)。但這些展廳里門可羅雀。

上周三下午,位于法德邊境城市薩爾布呂肯的La Linea汽車展廳的經(jīng)理喬基姆·尼爾斯曼說(shuō)道:“從周一至今,我們的展廳可能只來(lái)了10位顧客。”在生意好的時(shí)候,每天正常的客流量就有20至25人。

Damax Automobile Berlin的老板拉烏爾·博卡拉穆在上周三說(shuō)道:“今天上午沒(méi)有人光顧。”Damax Automobile Berlin位于柏林威爾默斯多夫區(qū)。柏林政府當(dāng)天僅允許部分店鋪首批恢復(fù)營(yíng)業(yè)?!按蠹叶荚诟綦x。估計(jì)今年不會(huì)有太多業(yè)務(wù)。”

汽車經(jīng)銷商的遭遇凸顯出企業(yè)即使獲準(zhǔn)復(fù)工之后可能面臨的諸多問(wèn)題之一——隨著疫情導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)副作用日益明顯,而且新冠病毒感染人數(shù)的發(fā)展軌跡依舊存在不確定性,因此歐洲的消費(fèi)者信心持續(xù)低迷。

德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)

德國(guó)汽車行業(yè)的規(guī)模高達(dá)4,350億歐元,但一方面它并沒(méi)有擺脫柴油車排放造假丑聞的影響,同時(shí)還要面對(duì)日益嚴(yán)格的排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。對(duì)這個(gè)行業(yè)而言,形勢(shì)變得異常嚴(yán)峻。

尼爾斯曼說(shuō):“在疫情爆發(fā)之前,客戶拿不準(zhǔn)主意該買什么車:混合動(dòng)力車還是電動(dòng)汽車,或者柴油車。我想未來(lái)情況會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn),但本周,他們并不想在汽車或者在病毒問(wèn)題上犯任何錯(cuò)誤。”

德國(guó)獨(dú)立汽車經(jīng)銷商協(xié)會(huì)(Association of Independent Auto Dealers ,BVfK)似乎更加樂(lè)觀。該協(xié)會(huì)堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為有更多顧客來(lái)看車,但它也承認(rèn)客流量數(shù)據(jù)較疫情危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前有所下降。該行業(yè)組織的主席安斯加爾·克萊茵說(shuō):“形勢(shì)非常艱難,但我們保持樂(lè)觀?!?/p>

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),疫情危機(jī)確實(shí)對(duì)德國(guó)汽車行業(yè)和國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重影響。IHS Markit上周四發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,德國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平跌至歷史最低,比分析師擔(dān)心的情況更加糟糕。4月初,德國(guó)汽車牌照發(fā)放機(jī)構(gòu)表示,3月的汽車銷量年比下降了38%。今年3月,汽車行業(yè)資深人士、瑞士圣加侖大學(xué)的費(fèi)迪南德·杜登霍夫告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,西歐乘用車市場(chǎng)需要近十年時(shí)間才能恢復(fù)到危機(jī)之前的水平。

德國(guó)大部分工廠由于執(zhí)行了嚴(yán)格的衛(wèi)生和組織措施,因此沒(méi)有停工。但德國(guó)汽車工廠大部分在3月中旬停工,現(xiàn)在才開(kāi)始復(fù)工。例如,戴姆勒(Daimler)位于漢堡、柏林和斯圖加特的動(dòng)力系統(tǒng)工廠以及德累斯頓附近的卡門茨電池工廠,都在上周復(fù)工。

“不要冒險(xiǎn)”

德國(guó)實(shí)行聯(lián)邦制,因此各地取消隔離限制的進(jìn)度并不一致。德國(guó)總理安格拉·默克爾在上周四警告稱,一些州為了盡快恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì),可能會(huì)操之過(guò)急。德國(guó)政府在兩周前表示將謹(jǐn)慎放寬疫情防控限制措施。默克爾說(shuō):“不要拿我們已經(jīng)取得的成果冒險(xiǎn),以免疫情出現(xiàn)反撲。疫情還沒(méi)有到最后階段,而是才剛剛開(kāi)始?!?/p>

德國(guó)獨(dú)立汽車經(jīng)銷商協(xié)會(huì)主席克萊茵也批評(píng)了各州各行其是,零星允許汽車展廳重新開(kāi)放的做法;例如,薩爾蘭州在上周一宣布復(fù)工,柏林在上周三解除了封禁令,巴伐利亞將在這周一宣布復(fù)工。克萊茵說(shuō):“很可惜,這些行動(dòng)沒(méi)有統(tǒng)一的組織。問(wèn)題出在[德國(guó)的]聯(lián)邦制。由[聯(lián)邦]政府統(tǒng)一做出指示或許效果更好。”

“第二階段”

除了德國(guó)以外,如何執(zhí)行經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)這個(gè)問(wèn)題,在其他國(guó)家也引起了巨大爭(zhēng)議。

西班牙施行了歐洲最嚴(yán)格的封禁令。西班牙首相佩德羅·桑切斯警告,將“逐步緩慢”復(fù)工,并且一旦發(fā)現(xiàn)新一輪疫情爆發(fā)的跡象,可能會(huì)取消解封。

西班牙的新冠疫情非常嚴(yán)重,共有死亡病例超過(guò)22,000例,排在全球第三位。西班牙允許包括工廠和建筑工地在內(nèi)的部分“非必要”企業(yè)在復(fù)活節(jié)后復(fù)工。從上周日開(kāi)始,14歲以下兒童六周來(lái)首次被允許走出家門,在一名成年人的陪同下散步不超過(guò)一個(gè)小時(shí)。(沒(méi)錯(cuò),規(guī)定的時(shí)間非常精確。)

上周三,西班牙將“緊急狀態(tài)”延長(zhǎng)至5月9日?!熬o急狀態(tài)”授權(quán)政府執(zhí)行封鎖令。

與此同時(shí),意大利總理朱塞佩·孔蒂上周早些時(shí)候通過(guò)Facebook提醒國(guó)民,意大利即將取消封鎖令。意大利的封鎖令在歐洲持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)。他在上周一表示:“我們的合理預(yù)測(cè)是從5月4日開(kāi)始解封?!?/p>

到目前為止,意大利并沒(méi)有披露有關(guān)所謂的“第二階段”的詳細(xì)信息。

在復(fù)活節(jié)之后,政府向園藝商店、童裝零售店和書店開(kāi)了綠燈。在羅馬最大的大學(xué)之一羅馬第三大學(xué)的街道上,書店于上周重新開(kāi)始營(yíng)業(yè),但很少有顧客光臨。由于學(xué)校無(wú)限期停課,學(xué)生只能待在家里;經(jīng)過(guò)書店的人屈指可數(shù),而且人們都戴著口罩,沒(méi)有心情瀏覽書店的新書。

丹麥在歐洲國(guó)家中率先解封。丹麥政府在4月14日宣布學(xué)校復(fù)課,結(jié)果引發(fā)了混亂。家長(zhǎng)們組織起來(lái)抗議政府的決定,甚至建了一個(gè)Facebook群組,名字叫“我的孩子不要當(dāng)實(shí)驗(yàn)對(duì)象?!?/p>

不止丹麥人主張緩慢恢復(fù)正常生活。

德國(guó)商業(yè)游說(shuō)機(jī)構(gòu)呼吁在決定經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)時(shí)應(yīng)該極其謹(jǐn)慎,以免導(dǎo)致疫情第二輪爆發(fā)。德國(guó)工業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)主席迪特·肯普夫表示:“再來(lái)一次封城,將對(duì)德國(guó)產(chǎn)生無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)的后果。”

本文包括來(lái)自馬德里的伊恩·蒙特和來(lái)自羅馬的伯恩哈德·華納的補(bǔ)充報(bào)道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Biz

What if you opened a car showroom and nobody came?

That’s the dilemma facing many car dealers across Germany, who were given the all-clear to reopen last week or next—the timing depends on the authorities in specific states.

More than a month after the coronavirus lockdown forced them to suspend sales, auto showrooms—like small shops and certain retail sectors such as florists and DIY stores—are largely open to the public again. But customers are few and far between.

“Since Monday, I think we have had 10 customers in the showroom,” says Joachim Niersmann, manager of La Linea showroom in Saarbrücken, near the German border with France, on last Wednesday afternoon. In better times, the normal footfall would have been on the order of 20 to 25 customers a day.

“Nobody has come by this morning,” says Rasoul Behkalam, owner of Damax Automobile Berlin in the capital’s Wilmersdorf district, also on last Wednesday—the Berlin authorities only allowed limited store reopenings for the first time on that day. “People are distancing. We don’t expect much business this year.”

The dealers’ experience highlights one of the many problems facing businesses even once they are allowed to reopen—customer confidence around Europe remains desperately low as the scale of the economic fallout becomes ever more apparent, and as uncertainty remains over the trajectory of coronavirus infections.

The engine of the German economy

In the case of the 435 billion euro German auto industry, still reeling from the diesel scandal and ever-tightening emissions standards, the problem is particularly acute.

“As before the virus, customers don’t know what they have to buy: hybrids or electric vehicles or diesel,” says Niersmann. “I think it will be better in coming times, but this week they don’t want to make a mistake with the car, or with the virus.”

Germany’s Association of Independent Auto Dealers (BVfK) sounds more upbeat about the situation, insisting that ever more customers are visiting showrooms—but conceding that numbers are down since before the crisis struck. “It’s very difficult, but we are optimistic,” says Ansgar Klein, the trade group’s chairman.

There’s no mistaking how bad the crisis has been for Germany’s auto sector, and indeed for the wider economy—IHS Markit’s economic-activity statistics, released last Thursday, showed a record low that far outstripped analysts’ fears. At the start of April, Germany’s vehicle licensing authority said March car sales were down 38% year on year. In March, industry veteran Ferdinand Dudenh?ffer of the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland told Fortune that the Western European market for passenger cars would take around a decade to return to pre-crisis levels.

Unlike most factories in Germany, which have kept running thanks to the imposition of strict hygiene and organizational measures, the country’s car factories largely shuttered in mid-March and are only now starting to fire up again. Daimler, for example, last week reopened powertrain plants in Hamburg, Berlin, and Stuttgart, and its Kamenz battery factory near Dresden.

‘Let’s not gamble’

Germany’s federated nature has led to some inconsistency in the lifting of restrictions. Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose administration signaled the cautious relaxation of coronavirus restrictions a couple of weeks back, warned last Thursday that some states could be moving too quickly as they try to get their economies humming again. “Let’s not gamble what we’ve achieved and risk a setback,” she said. “We are not in the final phase of this pandemic; we’re just at the beginning.”

BVfK chairman Klein is also critical of the way state authorities have handled auto showroom reopenings in piecemeal fashion; for example, the state of Saarland gave the all-clear for last Monday, Berlin for Wednesday, and Bavaria for Monday next week. “Unfortunately this is very inconsistently organized,” he says. “The problem lies in [Germany’s] federal structure. It would be better if the [federal] government could prescribe these things uniformly.”

Spain, Italy, and Denmark enter ‘Phase 2’

How to reopen the economy has become a big debate beyond Germany.

In Spain, which has imposed one of the tightest lockdowns in Europe, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has warned the reopening will be “slow and gradual,” and if there are signs of new outbreaks, the “de-escalation” may be reversed.

The hard-hit country, which has the third highest confirmed COVID-19 death toll in the world at over 22,000, allowed some “nonessential” businesses—including factories and construction sites—to reopen after Easter. And, began on last Sunday, children up to 14 years of age will be allowed to leave their homes for the first time in six weeks, to take walks of up to an hour with an adult. (Yes, the rules are that precise.)

On last Wednesday, Spain extended its “state of alert”—which gives the government the power to impose the lockdown—until May 9.

Meanwhile, Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte took to Facebook earlier last week to alert Italians that the lifting of Europe’s longest ongoing lockdown is imminent. “A reasonable expectation is that we will apply it from May 4,” he said on last Monday.

So far, details have been scant on what “Phase 2,” as it’s being called in Italy, would look like.

After Easter, the government gave the green light to garden shops, children’s clothing retailers, and bookstores. Across the street from L’Università degli Studi Roma Tre, one of Rome’s biggest universities, bookshops opened their doors last week to few customers. With classes suspended indefinitely, however, students are staying home; the few people walking past the bookshops were all donning masks and were in no mood to browse for new titles.

One European country that’s ahead of most of its neighbors is Denmark, where the government reopened schools on April 14, a move that caused a bit of a stir. Groups of parents protested the move, even forming a Facebook group called “My kid is not going to be a guinea pig.”

The Danes aren’t the only ones advocating a go-slow return to normal life.

Germany’s business lobby is calling for the reactivation of the country’s economy to take place with extreme caution, lest it trigger a second wave of COVID-19. “A new shutdown would have unforeseeable consequences for the country,” said Dieter Kempf, president of the Federal Association of German Industry, last week.

Additional reporting from Ian Mount in Madrid and Bernhard Warner in Rome.

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