本周許多美國人一覺醒來后發現,銀行賬戶中多了1200美元或者更多。
通常情況下,這本應是歡天喜地的大好事,但許多美國卻人高興不起來。過去幾周他們的生活徹底亂套了:非必須行業紛紛關門歇業,員工們縮在家中辦公,失業率大幅攀升。那些看起來很普通很日常的活動也都被叫停了,直至進一步通知的下達。
穆迪分析公司的經濟學家馬克·贊迪最近發表報告稱:“商業停擺擾亂了供應端,這是迄今為止經濟受重創的最主要因素?!辈贿^,來自需求端(家庭正縮減支出)的負面影響也開始顯現。
人生突然脫軌,這讓許多美國人無所適從。如果說黑暗中尚存些許光亮的話,那就是最近通過的《冠狀病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》了,政府將投入2.2萬億美元來刺激經濟:中低收入的美國人可收到1200美元(夫婦為2400美元)的經濟刺激支票,外加每個受撫養人500美元。
“刺激”這一詞用在這里實在耐人尋味。在密歇根大學經濟學家賈斯汀·沃爾夫斯看來,政府發放的這些支票跟以往的經濟刺激措施不一樣,并非為了使消費者進店購物或者刺激消費,實際上是為了幫助民眾渡過難關。
“經濟衰退不同以往,刺激措施也大不同?!蔽譅柗蛩箤Α敦敻弧冯s志說,“這是一場因政府要求民眾停工歇業、遠離商店而造成的經濟衰退?!?/p>
談及刺激措施和減稅對經濟的影響時,德意志銀行的美國高級經濟學家布雷特·瑞安指出了其中存在的“乘數效應”。
從本質上來說,這種效應是由于注入支出而產生的國內生產總值的增長。瑞安說,在市場連鎖反應下,經濟刺激的乘數效應在0.3美元至0.8美元之間——或者換句話說,依據你對每一美元補貼的使用情況,這一美元還能再產生0.3美元至0.8美元的效益。
瑞安稱,使用現金補貼的措施表明,政府“在對經濟采取應急之策”。他告訴《財富》雜志,這意味著政府拿不出多少手段來刺激經濟,只能修補一下流動性缺口。現金補貼最主要的目的就是“幫民眾活下去”,現時交房租、買食物以及支付其它賬單是重中之重。
不過,對于基本上陷入停頓的經濟,乘數效應若能達到0.8美元這一目標,當然是最好不過了。一些經濟學家說,為了達到這個目標,民眾應盡量把錢花在本土商家身上。
讓每一塊錢發揮最大作用。
有些研究表明,把錢花在本地商店,乘數效應會更顯著。緬因州經濟政策中心在2011年進行的一項研究發現,在本地企業身上消費100美元,對當地經濟就會產生58美元的額外效益,而在連鎖商店(即使是你家旁邊的連鎖店)則為33美元。原因是,本土企業老板更可能將賺到的錢再次投入到當地經濟中,從而開啟良性循環。在新冠疫情造成的停工歇業期間,把錢花在本地商家身上,有助于它們渡過難關。
哥倫比亞大學巴納德學院的經濟學助理教授貝琳達·阿奇邦指出,過往探討現金補助的廣泛影響研究表明,當民眾只會把錢花在食物、住房、衣服等必需品中(正如他們現在所做的那樣),而不是去幫襯本地商家時,將對宏觀經濟產生極大的沖擊?!?/p>
經濟學家建議,如果你平時經常出外就餐,那就繼續出外就餐,而不是叫外賣或者把錢捐給本地超市、餐館和咖啡店。
阿奇邦教授指出,這樣“你的補助金才能發揮最大的宏觀溢出效應。(現金補助)不僅幫助了你,還可以幫到本地商家?!碑斦劶俺藬敌獣r,她說,經濟學家從兩個層面考慮這個問題:國內生產總值及其分配(流向不同區域、企業、個人和家庭的份額)。
“如果把錢盡量花在本地,那么相比花在亞馬遜等大型企業身上,花在本地的商家、企業、產品身上產生的效益確實更大,對本地經濟有著非常積極的影響?!卑⑵姘罱淌谡f。她住在紐約布朗克斯區,自己就經常光顧附近一家當地人開的韓國雜貨店。
而Bankrate.com的首席經濟分析師馬克·漢姆里克則對《財富》雜志說,在消費應該具有怎樣的社會責任這個問題上,每個人都會有不同的態度。漢姆里克一直在幫襯華盛頓特區一家本地人開的意大利餐館,從那里購買外帶食品,他說“大家都想盡力幫助這個餐館”。
很多人或許情愿安坐家中,想買什么就上亞馬遜等購物網站。一些經濟學家說,在封鎖措施仍然實施的情況下,這樣的做法弊大于利。
密歇根大學的沃爾夫斯指出,亞馬遜的送貨業務其實已經超負荷運轉了?!耙虼?,現在不要買新沙發了。”他說。他建議等限制令取消后再去買。
德意志銀行的瑞安補充道,如果財力允許且有打算,那現在就預訂明年的旅游出行和機票,讓相關企業增加收入和現金流?!疤崆邦A訂有助于幫助一些企業熬過難關?!彼f。
然而限制封鎖措施取消后,民眾的消費能否恢復到之前的力度呢?
沃爾夫斯的答案很簡短:“沒人知道?!币坏┫拗拼胧┤∠?,德意志銀行的瑞安推測“市場將迎來民眾受抑制的需求”,然而“不幸的是,在經歷這么大的沖擊之后,得經過好幾年,消費者信心才能恢復到之前的水平”。
一些經濟學家表示,這一輪的刺激措施,暫時對整個經濟的作用不會太大。密歇根大學的沃爾夫斯說:“大家要做的就是多花錢,給家人買健康、買快樂、買食物?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)
譯者:李耀和
本周許多美國人一覺醒來后發現,銀行賬戶中多了1200美元或者更多。
通常情況下,這本應是歡天喜地的大好事,但許多美國卻人高興不起來。過去幾周他們的生活徹底亂套了:非必須行業紛紛關門歇業,員工們縮在家中辦公,失業率大幅攀升。那些看起來很普通很日常的活動也都被叫停了,直至進一步通知的下達。
穆迪分析公司的經濟學家馬克·贊迪最近發表報告稱:“商業停擺擾亂了供應端,這是迄今為止經濟受重創的最主要因素。”不過,來自需求端(家庭正縮減支出)的負面影響也開始顯現。
人生突然脫軌,這讓許多美國人無所適從。如果說黑暗中尚存些許光亮的話,那就是最近通過的《冠狀病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》了,政府將投入2.2萬億美元來刺激經濟:中低收入的美國人可收到1200美元(夫婦為2400美元)的經濟刺激支票,外加每個受撫養人500美元。
“刺激”這一詞用在這里實在耐人尋味。在密歇根大學經濟學家賈斯汀·沃爾夫斯看來,政府發放的這些支票跟以往的經濟刺激措施不一樣,并非為了使消費者進店購物或者刺激消費,實際上是為了幫助民眾渡過難關。
“經濟衰退不同以往,刺激措施也大不同?!蔽譅柗蛩箤Α敦敻弧冯s志說,“這是一場因政府要求民眾停工歇業、遠離商店而造成的經濟衰退。”
談及刺激措施和減稅對經濟的影響時,德意志銀行的美國高級經濟學家布雷特·瑞安指出了其中存在的“乘數效應”。
從本質上來說,這種效應是由于注入支出而產生的國內生產總值的增長。瑞安說,在市場連鎖反應下,經濟刺激的乘數效應在0.3美元至0.8美元之間——或者換句話說,依據你對每一美元補貼的使用情況,這一美元還能再產生0.3美元至0.8美元的效益。
瑞安稱,使用現金補貼的措施表明,政府“在對經濟采取應急之策”。他告訴《財富》雜志,這意味著政府拿不出多少手段來刺激經濟,只能修補一下流動性缺口?,F金補貼最主要的目的就是“幫民眾活下去”,現時交房租、買食物以及支付其它賬單是重中之重。
不過,對于基本上陷入停頓的經濟,乘數效應若能達到0.8美元這一目標,當然是最好不過了。一些經濟學家說,為了達到這個目標,民眾應盡量把錢花在本土商家身上。
讓每一塊錢發揮最大作用。
有些研究表明,把錢花在本地商店,乘數效應會更顯著。緬因州經濟政策中心在2011年進行的一項研究發現,在本地企業身上消費100美元,對當地經濟就會產生58美元的額外效益,而在連鎖商店(即使是你家旁邊的連鎖店)則為33美元。原因是,本土企業老板更可能將賺到的錢再次投入到當地經濟中,從而開啟良性循環。在新冠疫情造成的停工歇業期間,把錢花在本地商家身上,有助于它們渡過難關。
哥倫比亞大學巴納德學院的經濟學助理教授貝琳達·阿奇邦指出,過往探討現金補助的廣泛影響研究表明,當民眾只會把錢花在食物、住房、衣服等必需品中(正如他們現在所做的那樣),而不是去幫襯本地商家時,將對宏觀經濟產生極大的沖擊?!?/p>
經濟學家建議,如果你平時經常出外就餐,那就繼續出外就餐,而不是叫外賣或者把錢捐給本地超市、餐館和咖啡店。
阿奇邦教授指出,這樣“你的補助金才能發揮最大的宏觀溢出效應。(現金補助)不僅幫助了你,還可以幫到本地商家。”當談及乘數效應時,她說,經濟學家從兩個層面考慮這個問題:國內生產總值及其分配(流向不同區域、企業、個人和家庭的份額)。
“如果把錢盡量花在本地,那么相比花在亞馬遜等大型企業身上,花在本地的商家、企業、產品身上產生的效益確實更大,對本地經濟有著非常積極的影響?!卑⑵姘罱淌谡f。她住在紐約布朗克斯區,自己就經常光顧附近一家當地人開的韓國雜貨店。
而Bankrate.com的首席經濟分析師馬克·漢姆里克則對《財富》雜志說,在消費應該具有怎樣的社會責任這個問題上,每個人都會有不同的態度。漢姆里克一直在幫襯華盛頓特區一家本地人開的意大利餐館,從那里購買外帶食品,他說“大家都想盡力幫助這個餐館”。
很多人或許情愿安坐家中,想買什么就上亞馬遜等購物網站。一些經濟學家說,在封鎖措施仍然實施的情況下,這樣的做法弊大于利。
密歇根大學的沃爾夫斯指出,亞馬遜的送貨業務其實已經超負荷運轉了?!耙虼?,現在不要買新沙發了。”他說。他建議等限制令取消后再去買。
德意志銀行的瑞安補充道,如果財力允許且有打算,那現在就預訂明年的旅游出行和機票,讓相關企業增加收入和現金流?!疤崆邦A訂有助于幫助一些企業熬過難關?!彼f。
然而限制封鎖措施取消后,民眾的消費能否恢復到之前的力度呢?
沃爾夫斯的答案很簡短:“沒人知道?!币坏┫拗拼胧┤∠乱庵俱y行的瑞安推測“市場將迎來民眾受抑制的需求”,然而“不幸的是,在經歷這么大的沖擊之后,得經過好幾年,消費者信心才能恢復到之前的水平”。
一些經濟學家表示,這一輪的刺激措施,暫時對整個經濟的作用不會太大。密歇根大學的沃爾夫斯說:“大家要做的就是多花錢,給家人買健康、買快樂、買食物?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)
譯者:李耀和
Many Americans woke up this week with an extra $1,200 (or more) in their bank accounts.
In ordinary circumstances, it would likely be a reason to rejoice—but for the majority of Americans everywhere, the past few weeks have meant a complete overhaul of their lives: Nonessential businesses are closed, many employees are working from home, and unemployment is on the rise. Activities that seemed so normal, mundane even, have been put on pause until further notice.
According to a recent report by Moody's Analytics' economist Mark Zandi, "The damage to the economy to date has been mostly the result of the supply-side shock from the business shutdowns." But, the demand-side of the equation (households pulling back on their spending) "is just now hitting."
If there was one meager bright spot for many Americans adjusting to this temporary new way of life, it's the recent passage of the CARES Act and a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, that will provide low-and-middle income Americans with either $1,200 or $2,400 (for couples) stimulus checks, plus an additional $500 for every dependent.
But "stimulus" is an interesting word to use here. In fact, for Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, these checks aren't meant to get consumers into shops or stimulate spending, in the way a normal stimulus package would: they're intended for survival.
"This recession is different, which means this stimulus package is different," Wolfers tells Fortune. "This is a recession caused by the government wanting to get people out of work and out of the stores."
When it comes to thinking about the impact things like stimulus packages and tax cuts have on the economy, those like Deutsche Bank's senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan point out the "multiplier effect."
Essentially, the effect is an increase in the total GDP resulting from an injection of spending. Through a ripple effect, Ryan notes that multiples for economic stimulus are anywhere from $0.30 to $0.80 to the dollar—or, in other words, depending on how you spend each dollar of your stimulus check, it can go on to generate another $0.30-$0.80 cents.
With the checks, says Deutsche Bank's Ryan, the government is "in triage mode for the economy." That means "There’s not much you can do right now to spur on the economy—it’s all about covering a liquidity gap right now," he tells Fortune. And first and foremost, these cash grants were intended to "get people by," he notes—paying for rent, food, and other bills is the top priority.
But obviously, for an economy that has basically ground to a halt, getting closer to $0.80 to the dollar is the goal. And for those who are able, say some economists, one way is to spend your dollars locally.
Get the most bang for your stimulus bucks
Some studies suggest the multiplier effect may be more pronounced when you shop local. One study conducted in 2011 by the Maine Center for Economic Policy found that every $100 spent at locally owned businesses contributed an additional $58 to the local economy, versus $33 if spent at a chain store, even one located near you. The idea being, that local business owner is much more likely to put the proceeds from the transaction back into the local economy again, kicking off a virtuous cycle. And during the coronavirus shutdown, supporting your local businesses could help keep them afloat.
"One of the things that we’ve seen from previous studies in economics looking at the impacts of cash grants generally, is that where they’re having the biggest macroeconomic impact is when you see people spending as they would already be spending on necessities like food and housing and clothes and all of that, but directing your spending toward local businesses," notes Belinda Archibong, assistant economics professor at Barnard College of Columbia University.
If, in ordinary times, you went out to eat frequently, economists suggest keeping up those normal expenditures, instead getting takeout or donating to local supermarkets, restaurants, and coffee shops.
That's "where your stimulus money can have the biggest macro spillover effects," notes Archibong. "[The checks are] not just helping you but your local businesses as well." When it comes to the multiplier effect, Archibong says economists think of it in two ways: the big pie (GDP), and the distribution of the pie (how much is going to different regions, businesses, individuals, and households).
"If you spend more money locally, then yes, that distribution to local employers and local businesses and local producers will benefit more relative to the big Amazons and the big huge firms, which is a significant positive impact to these local economies," she says. For her part, Archibong is frequenting a local Korean grocery store in her neighborhood in the Bronx.
Others like Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst at Bankrate.com, think each person is going to have a different response "to ultimately what they might view as their social responsibility connected to spending," he tells Fortune. Hamrick has been getting takeout from a locally-owned Italian restaurant "that we want to try to help," in the D.C. area.
While it may be tempting to spend your extra time at home online shopping on sites like Amazon, some economists suggest that may be doing more harm than good while restrictions remain in place.
In fact, the University of Michigan's Wolfers points out that Amazon delivery, for example, is already overloaded. "So, no, don’t buy a new couch today," he advises. Buy that "new couch the day the orders are lifted."
Deutsche's Ryan adds that, if you have the means and the visibility, booking travel and airline tickets now (for later in the year) could help companies' revenue and cash liquidity. "Booking things way in advance would be something to do that kind of helps companies get through," he says.
But once those restrictions are lifted, will consumer spending return to its former strength?
In short, Wolfers says, "No one has a clue." Others like Deutsche's Ryan speculate "You’re going to have the pent up demand," once restrictions are lifted, but "It takes years, unfortunately, to get [consumer] confidence back to those previous levels once people have experienced such a large shock."
While economists suggest this round of stimulus likely won't have too big an impact on the economy on the whole, for now, notes University of Michigan's Wolfers: "What you should do is spend money to keep your family healthy, happy, eating."