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美股專家談何時抄底股市

REY MASHAYEHKI
2020-04-13

《財富》雜志采訪道富環(huán)球投資管理公司高管,討論當前新冠疫情及其對金融市場和整體經(jīng)濟的空前破壞力,以及對今后市場走向的看法。

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圖片來源:JAMIE CULLEN

當我們遇到洛里·海內(nèi)爾時,她與當前大多數(shù)美國專業(yè)人士一樣正在遠程辦公。就海內(nèi)爾而言,坐標賓夕法尼亞州西部,距離道富環(huán)球投資管理公司波士頓總部甚遠。海內(nèi)爾是這家全球最大資產(chǎn)管理公司的全球副首席投資官。

當談及自己的新工作環(huán)境時,她說:“我的家人們在這里。周邊基本上一個同事都沒有。”聽起來,她似乎已與家人適應了這種自我隔離和社交疏離的新秩序。

雖然環(huán)境頗有田園風情,但海內(nèi)爾在道富的工作也存在不小的壓力,她代表全球2500多家機構(gòu)客戶,負責管理30多億美元的資產(chǎn)。作為道富全球首席投資官理查德·拉卡伊的副手,她還幫助協(xié)調(diào)資產(chǎn)經(jīng)理面向客戶的各類服務,從市場研究到投資策略和產(chǎn)品,同時還專注于內(nèi)部治理、監(jiān)管和盡職調(diào)查。

然而,當《財富》雜志采訪海內(nèi)爾時,我們最先要談的就是當前的新冠疫情、其對金融市場和整體經(jīng)濟的空前破壞力,以及她對今后市場走向的看法。正如她所說的那樣,投資者如今面對的是“一種不同的危機”,這種危機“并非來自于驅(qū)動市場的任何傳統(tǒng)力量。”

她說:“我們所學的一切都是按照投資者的思維進行評估,當前的這一局面讓我們感到不知所措。”

為簡明起見,對話經(jīng)過摘編。

新冠疫情爆發(fā)的規(guī)模可能讓投資者感到吃驚,你對今年的形勢有什么預期?對市場的走向,是持樂觀態(tài)度還是悲觀態(tài)度?

如果疫情持續(xù)數(shù)月,甚至數(shù)年時間,那么影響將是顛覆性的。當前在工作層面上,我們認為它會持續(xù)一個季度的時間,也有可能是兩個季度,可能會在第三季度初回歸常態(tài)。如果真是這樣,那么被急劇抑制的需求將在2020年下半年大量釋放,而那些未出現(xiàn)業(yè)務中斷的企業(yè)可能會因此迅速趕上。這個局面非常糟糕,但我們確實認為,疫情會給我們帶來一個業(yè)績尚可的下半年,而且2021年可能會更強勁。

道富是如何代表客戶應對疫情的,例如重新分配和重新調(diào)整其投資策略?

首先,我們確實降低了對于股票的過度倚重。我們有一個月度流程,每個月都會查看相對估值和情緒指標,而且我們減少了對股票的投資,但我們在這一方面依然過重,尤其是在美國。我們相信,隨著估值的回落,再加上強勁的刺激舉措,市場還是有一些機會的。我們十分關(guān)注大市值而不是小市值股票的前景;因為小市值股票的逆風更大一些,尤其是考慮到信用問題。

抵押擔保債券面臨著不小的交易壓力。但從信用質(zhì)量和收益來講,既然美聯(lián)儲也加入了購買大軍的行列,我們認為其與固定收益產(chǎn)品一樣還是值得關(guān)注的。當前,我們對高收益率債券更為謹慎。如果客戶對此依然有興趣,我們會建議主動一些,選擇標準再高一些。

我們也對黃金持倉超過一年,并沒有戰(zhàn)略性的投資分配,但我們?nèi)ツ暌恢痹诓呗孕缘刭徺I黃金。如果債券的利率接近零,那么機會成本就幾乎不存在了。但黃金這種資產(chǎn)有著正關(guān)聯(lián)性,當市場上漲時,它與股票正相關(guān),當股市下跌時,它與股票負相關(guān)。從資產(chǎn)多元化角度來看,黃金的這個特性真的不錯。

鑒于公司在股票方面的投資依然過重,并且看到了一定的機會,如果按行業(yè)劃分,你對股票市場的前景怎么看?

我們非常看好的一個領(lǐng)域是醫(yī)療。在醫(yī)療政策變化的質(zhì)疑聲中,該行業(yè)有其自身的波動性,但我們的確認為它是市場中為數(shù)不多擁有可持續(xù)增長潛力的行業(yè)之一,而且從估值方面來看,也很有吸引力。

最近比較低迷的行業(yè)是金融。但有鑒于近期的市場調(diào)整,這里有一些非常有吸引力的企業(yè),我們認為它們將在經(jīng)濟上揚時受益,而且它們?nèi)缃竦墓乐狄哺呶Α?/p>

另一個行業(yè)是公用設施。我們近些年在這一領(lǐng)域投資不足,但如今正在評估利率下跌情形下的市場環(huán)境。我們認為其派息比其他行業(yè)更持久。

房地產(chǎn)業(yè)呢?你之前曾說道富正在圍繞上市房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金(REITs)建倉,但鑒于當前全球房地產(chǎn)所面臨的困境,是否依然持樂觀態(tài)度?

當前,我們在這一行業(yè)依然投資過多。說到這,我們增持了REITs。選擇非常重要,倉儲這個行業(yè)依然具有十分誘人的估值,聯(lián)排別墅房產(chǎn)亦是如此。零售領(lǐng)域,我們很久之前就已失去了興趣;大型商場也在新冠疫情出現(xiàn)很久之前就在承受不小的壓力。

我認為,受此次危機影響,有一件事是我們必須要做,而且是不分資產(chǎn)類別的。對支撐我們現(xiàn)金流的所有假設,我們都要進行壓力測試。有些公司可能在歷史上一直處于正現(xiàn)金流狀態(tài),但其現(xiàn)在資金消耗的速度有多快?每一家公司是如何應對的,它們是否有充足的信貸,還是前瞻性地對現(xiàn)金流進行了衡量?道富團隊正在非常仔細地審視這些內(nèi)容。

你對美聯(lián)儲穩(wěn)定金融市場、保持信貸融通的歷史性舉措怎么看?對平息投資者在市場劇烈動蕩期間的恐懼方面,這些舉措發(fā)揮了什么重要作用?

我們的觀點是,美聯(lián)儲擴充資產(chǎn)負債表要比降息重要得多,至少目前是這樣。固定收益市場一潭死水;沒有人投標,連國債都沒人購買。這是一個不同尋常的市場,即使資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量再好,你也無法以任何價格出售,這對于債券來說是前所未聞的。

事實上,他們已經(jīng)拓展并將繼續(xù)尋找向其他小眾市場拓展的機遇,甚至是市政債券,這一點至關(guān)重要。我們所處的環(huán)境沒有出現(xiàn)信用危機,至少現(xiàn)在還沒有,但卻存在一些償付能力的危機,受此影響,投資者即便在恐慌之余也無法撤倉。第一季度即將接近尾聲,我們在季度末可能會看到市場反彈,而且大多數(shù)投資者會希望拋售固定收益資產(chǎn),并購入股票。但如果他們無法出售,或必須在付出巨額成本代價后才能實現(xiàn),那么將為自身帶來劣勢。

美聯(lián)儲曾經(jīng)歷過馬里奧·德拉基所稱的“不計代價”的時刻。至少此舉幫助信用市場恢復了一絲信心,因為那里有一位救市的買家,對象甚至包括他們以往并不支持的資產(chǎn)。受此影響,美國信用市場的交易秩序好了不少。

然而,人們依然對企業(yè)信譽市場的狀況充滿擔憂,尤其是BBB評級投資級債券,如果經(jīng)濟條件持續(xù)惡化,其中很多都將降級為高收益率的垃圾債券。你對此是否感到擔憂,對企業(yè)債市場前景又有何看法?

可能會出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模降級現(xiàn)象,這意味著高收益率市場將得到擴張,但屆時流動性也會減少,且人們購買高收益?zhèn)呐d趣會下降。在很多情況下,持有指數(shù)產(chǎn)品的機構(gòu)投資者會在這些環(huán)境下被迫拋售其持有的資產(chǎn)。我們對此非常關(guān)注,而且將努力與客戶合作,看看是否有回旋余地,不至于出現(xiàn)拋售的情況。

如果出現(xiàn)價格暴跌、高收益潛力頗佳的證券產(chǎn)品,這也不失為升級資產(chǎn)組合的上好機會。不過難在挑選,因為我們也很難說哪些企業(yè)所面臨的困難是臨時的,而且今后就能恢復其評級。與此同時,我們也不知道市場上哪些領(lǐng)域依然可以獲得低息貸款,政府的干預將至關(guān)重要。

好消息在于,這里不存在再融資的障礙;它更多地取決于企業(yè)是否有能力實現(xiàn)更常態(tài)化的現(xiàn)金流環(huán)境。貸款合約則是另一個軟肋。銀行不希望馬上把公司列入違約名單,它們擁有巨大的風險,而且這是銀行最大的軟肋之一。

你的客戶對此次市場波動性,以及經(jīng)濟會再次陷入蕭條的擔憂有何反應?作為投資經(jīng)理,是否曾想過用什么辦法來平息他們的擔憂,并引導其克服當前的不利因素?

大多數(shù)機構(gòu)投資者幾乎都接受過培訓,不會考慮策略資產(chǎn)配置,他們中的大多數(shù)都會遵從其投資政策,并不斷地投資。我們之間大量溝通的一項內(nèi)容在于季末資產(chǎn)組合的重新調(diào)整。他們會根據(jù)客戶的配置方式,在第一季度底進行較大程度的重新規(guī)劃。在某些情況下,我們將對一些資產(chǎn)類別進行有選擇性的重新調(diào)整,并研究一下此舉會對整個資產(chǎn)組合帶來什么影響。

我們正在做的一件事就是花時間與參與者進行溝通。客戶將很快會拿到季末報表,并看到其資產(chǎn)余額的減少;他們看到之后還能鎮(zhèn)定自若嗎?我知道我自己是不會去看自家報表的[笑]。

最后,對剛剛進入金融服務或剛剛在這一領(lǐng)域開始其職業(yè)生涯的年輕人,你有什么建議,尤其是在當前這個前所未有的動蕩時期?

我所學到的最重要的一件事,就是要精通自身業(yè)務,要熟悉你所掌握的事實,甘當學生,不要只讀頭條新聞,以為它會給你所需的信息。

要大膽為之。在這種環(huán)境下,客戶都會希望聽取你的建議。做足功課,然后做出判斷。大多數(shù)時候,都會讓客戶感到滿意。甘當學生,認真學習,如果你覺得已經(jīng)進行了足夠多的研究,就要大膽說出并捍衛(wèi)自己的觀點。此舉有助于你更上一層樓。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:FEB

當我們遇到洛里·海內(nèi)爾時,她與當前大多數(shù)美國專業(yè)人士一樣正在遠程辦公。就海內(nèi)爾而言,坐標賓夕法尼亞州西部,距離道富環(huán)球投資管理公司波士頓總部甚遠。海內(nèi)爾是這家全球最大資產(chǎn)管理公司的全球副首席投資官。

當談及自己的新工作環(huán)境時,她說:“我的家人們在這里。周邊基本上一個同事都沒有。”聽起來,她似乎已與家人適應了這種自我隔離和社交疏離的新秩序。

雖然環(huán)境頗有田園風情,但海內(nèi)爾在道富的工作也存在不小的壓力,她代表全球2500多家機構(gòu)客戶,負責管理30多億美元的資產(chǎn)。作為道富全球首席投資官理查德·拉卡伊的副手,她還幫助協(xié)調(diào)資產(chǎn)經(jīng)理面向客戶的各類服務,從市場研究到投資策略和產(chǎn)品,同時還專注于內(nèi)部治理、監(jiān)管和盡職調(diào)查。

然而,當《財富》雜志采訪海內(nèi)爾時,我們最先要談的就是當前的新冠疫情、其對金融市場和整體經(jīng)濟的空前破壞力,以及她對今后市場走向的看法。正如她所說的那樣,投資者如今面對的是“一種不同的危機”,這種危機“并非來自于驅(qū)動市場的任何傳統(tǒng)力量。”

她說:“我們所學的一切都是按照投資者的思維進行評估,當前的這一局面讓我們感到不知所措。”

為簡明起見,對話經(jīng)過摘編。

新冠疫情爆發(fā)的規(guī)模可能讓投資者感到吃驚,你對今年的形勢有什么預期?對市場的走向,是持樂觀態(tài)度還是悲觀態(tài)度?

如果疫情持續(xù)數(shù)月,甚至數(shù)年時間,那么影響將是顛覆性的。當前在工作層面上,我們認為它會持續(xù)一個季度的時間,也有可能是兩個季度,可能會在第三季度初回歸常態(tài)。如果真是這樣,那么被急劇抑制的需求將在2020年下半年大量釋放,而那些未出現(xiàn)業(yè)務中斷的企業(yè)可能會因此迅速趕上。這個局面非常糟糕,但我們確實認為,疫情會給我們帶來一個業(yè)績尚可的下半年,而且2021年可能會更強勁。

道富是如何代表客戶應對疫情的,例如重新分配和重新調(diào)整其投資策略?

首先,我們確實降低了對于股票的過度倚重。我們有一個月度流程,每個月都會查看相對估值和情緒指標,而且我們減少了對股票的投資,但我們在這一方面依然過重,尤其是在美國。我們相信,隨著估值的回落,再加上強勁的刺激舉措,市場還是有一些機會的。我們十分關(guān)注大市值而不是小市值股票的前景;因為小市值股票的逆風更大一些,尤其是考慮到信用問題。

抵押擔保債券面臨著不小的交易壓力。但從信用質(zhì)量和收益來講,既然美聯(lián)儲也加入了購買大軍的行列,我們認為其與固定收益產(chǎn)品一樣還是值得關(guān)注的。當前,我們對高收益率債券更為謹慎。如果客戶對此依然有興趣,我們會建議主動一些,選擇標準再高一些。

我們也對黃金持倉超過一年,并沒有戰(zhàn)略性的投資分配,但我們?nèi)ツ暌恢痹诓呗孕缘刭徺I黃金。如果債券的利率接近零,那么機會成本就幾乎不存在了。但黃金這種資產(chǎn)有著正關(guān)聯(lián)性,當市場上漲時,它與股票正相關(guān),當股市下跌時,它與股票負相關(guān)。從資產(chǎn)多元化角度來看,黃金的這個特性真的不錯。

鑒于公司在股票方面的投資依然過重,并且看到了一定的機會,如果按行業(yè)劃分,你對股票市場的前景怎么看?

我們非常看好的一個領(lǐng)域是醫(yī)療。在醫(yī)療政策變化的質(zhì)疑聲中,該行業(yè)有其自身的波動性,但我們的確認為它是市場中為數(shù)不多擁有可持續(xù)增長潛力的行業(yè)之一,而且從估值方面來看,也很有吸引力。

最近比較低迷的行業(yè)是金融。但有鑒于近期的市場調(diào)整,這里有一些非常有吸引力的企業(yè),我們認為它們將在經(jīng)濟上揚時受益,而且它們?nèi)缃竦墓乐狄哺呶Α?/p>

另一個行業(yè)是公用設施。我們近些年在這一領(lǐng)域投資不足,但如今正在評估利率下跌情形下的市場環(huán)境。我們認為其派息比其他行業(yè)更持久。

房地產(chǎn)業(yè)呢?你之前曾說道富正在圍繞上市房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金(REITs)建倉,但鑒于當前全球房地產(chǎn)所面臨的困境,是否依然持樂觀態(tài)度?

當前,我們在這一行業(yè)依然投資過多。說到這,我們增持了REITs。選擇非常重要,倉儲這個行業(yè)依然具有十分誘人的估值,聯(lián)排別墅房產(chǎn)亦是如此。零售領(lǐng)域,我們很久之前就已失去了興趣;大型商場也在新冠疫情出現(xiàn)很久之前就在承受不小的壓力。

我認為,受此次危機影響,有一件事是我們必須要做,而且是不分資產(chǎn)類別的。對支撐我們現(xiàn)金流的所有假設,我們都要進行壓力測試。有些公司可能在歷史上一直處于正現(xiàn)金流狀態(tài),但其現(xiàn)在資金消耗的速度有多快?每一家公司是如何應對的,它們是否有充足的信貸,還是前瞻性地對現(xiàn)金流進行了衡量?道富團隊正在非常仔細地審視這些內(nèi)容。

你對美聯(lián)儲穩(wěn)定金融市場、保持信貸融通的歷史性舉措怎么看?對平息投資者在市場劇烈動蕩期間的恐懼方面,這些舉措發(fā)揮了什么重要作用?

我們的觀點是,美聯(lián)儲擴充資產(chǎn)負債表要比降息重要得多,至少目前是這樣。固定收益市場一潭死水;沒有人投標,連國債都沒人購買。這是一個不同尋常的市場,即使資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量再好,你也無法以任何價格出售,這對于債券來說是前所未聞的。

事實上,他們已經(jīng)拓展并將繼續(xù)尋找向其他小眾市場拓展的機遇,甚至是市政債券,這一點至關(guān)重要。我們所處的環(huán)境沒有出現(xiàn)信用危機,至少現(xiàn)在還沒有,但卻存在一些償付能力的危機,受此影響,投資者即便在恐慌之余也無法撤倉。第一季度即將接近尾聲,我們在季度末可能會看到市場反彈,而且大多數(shù)投資者會希望拋售固定收益資產(chǎn),并購入股票。但如果他們無法出售,或必須在付出巨額成本代價后才能實現(xiàn),那么將為自身帶來劣勢。

美聯(lián)儲曾經(jīng)歷過馬里奧·德拉基所稱的“不計代價”的時刻。至少此舉幫助信用市場恢復了一絲信心,因為那里有一位救市的買家,對象甚至包括他們以往并不支持的資產(chǎn)。受此影響,美國信用市場的交易秩序好了不少。

然而,人們依然對企業(yè)信譽市場的狀況充滿擔憂,尤其是BBB評級投資級債券,如果經(jīng)濟條件持續(xù)惡化,其中很多都將降級為高收益率的垃圾債券。你對此是否感到擔憂,對企業(yè)債市場前景又有何看法?

可能會出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模降級現(xiàn)象,這意味著高收益率市場將得到擴張,但屆時流動性也會減少,且人們購買高收益?zhèn)呐d趣會下降。在很多情況下,持有指數(shù)產(chǎn)品的機構(gòu)投資者會在這些環(huán)境下被迫拋售其持有的資產(chǎn)。我們對此非常關(guān)注,而且將努力與客戶合作,看看是否有回旋余地,不至于出現(xiàn)拋售的情況。

如果出現(xiàn)價格暴跌、高收益潛力頗佳的證券產(chǎn)品,這也不失為升級資產(chǎn)組合的上好機會。不過難在挑選,因為我們也很難說哪些企業(yè)所面臨的困難是臨時的,而且今后就能恢復其評級。與此同時,我們也不知道市場上哪些領(lǐng)域依然可以獲得低息貸款,政府的干預將至關(guān)重要。

好消息在于,這里不存在再融資的障礙;它更多地取決于企業(yè)是否有能力實現(xiàn)更常態(tài)化的現(xiàn)金流環(huán)境。貸款合約則是另一個軟肋。銀行不希望馬上把公司列入違約名單,它們擁有巨大的風險,而且這是銀行最大的軟肋之一。

你的客戶對此次市場波動性,以及經(jīng)濟會再次陷入蕭條的擔憂有何反應?作為投資經(jīng)理,是否曾想過用什么辦法來平息他們的擔憂,并引導其克服當前的不利因素?

大多數(shù)機構(gòu)投資者幾乎都接受過培訓,不會考慮策略資產(chǎn)配置,他們中的大多數(shù)都會遵從其投資政策,并不斷地投資。我們之間大量溝通的一項內(nèi)容在于季末資產(chǎn)組合的重新調(diào)整。他們會根據(jù)客戶的配置方式,在第一季度底進行較大程度的重新規(guī)劃。在某些情況下,我們將對一些資產(chǎn)類別進行有選擇性的重新調(diào)整,并研究一下此舉會對整個資產(chǎn)組合帶來什么影響。

我們正在做的一件事就是花時間與參與者進行溝通。客戶將很快會拿到季末報表,并看到其資產(chǎn)余額的減少;他們看到之后還能鎮(zhèn)定自若嗎?我知道我自己是不會去看自家報表的[笑]。

最后,對剛剛進入金融服務或剛剛在這一領(lǐng)域開始其職業(yè)生涯的年輕人,你有什么建議,尤其是在當前這個前所未有的動蕩時期?

我所學到的最重要的一件事,就是要精通自身業(yè)務,要熟悉你所掌握的事實,甘當學生,不要只讀頭條新聞,以為它會給你所需的信息。

要大膽為之。在這種環(huán)境下,客戶都會希望聽取你的建議。做足功課,然后做出判斷。大多數(shù)時候,都會讓客戶感到滿意。甘當學生,認真學習,如果你覺得已經(jīng)進行了足夠多的研究,就要大膽說出并捍衛(wèi)自己的觀點。此舉有助于你更上一層樓。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:FEB

When we catch up with Lori Heinel, she, like most American professionals these days, is working remotely. In Heinel’s case, she’s holed up in western Pennsylvania—a considerable distance from the Boston headquarters of State Street Global Advisors, where she serves as deputy global chief investment officer for one of the world’s largest asset management firms.

“I have family here,” she notes of her new surroundings, which sound like they lend themselves quite well to the new norms of self-isolation and social distancing. “There’s literally nobody around.”

Though the setting may be bucolic, Heinel's job at State Street, which manages over $3 trillion on behalf on more than 2,500 institutional clients globally, is a bit more high pressure. Working alongside State Street global CIO Richard Lacaille, she helps coordinate the asset manager’s myriad client-facing services—from market research to investment strategy and products—while also focusing on internal governance, oversight, and due diligence.

But in speaking with Heinel for Fortune’s Quarterly Investment Guide, there was really one place to start: the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, its devastating impact on both the financial markets and the overall economy, and where she sees things going from here. As she notes, investors are now dealing with “a different kind of crisis”—one that “doesn’t emanate from any of the traditional things that drive the markets.”

“All of the things we’ve learned to assess as investors, this [situation] throws all of that out of the window,” she says.

This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

The scope of the coronavirus outbreak may have caught investors by surprise—but now that you’ve had time to consider the possibilities, what are your expectations for how this plays out? Are you more optimistic or pessimistic about what’s in store for the markets?

If this thing goes on for months—or, God forbid, years—it’s game-changing. Our working assumption right now is that this is a one-quarter, maybe two-quarter event, where maybe by the early third quarter we get somewhat back to normal. If that’s the case, then we could have pretty sharp, pent-up demand in the second half [of 2020] that should release to the degree where corporations that haven’t seen physical disruptions can ramp up pretty quickly. It’s a terrible situation, but we do believe that it can set us up for a second half that’s pretty reasonable, and a 2021 that could be stronger.

How has State Street responded to the pandemic as far as reallocating and recalibrating its investment strategies on behalf of clients?

First off, we did reduce our overallocation on equities. We have a monthly process where we look at relative valuations and sentiment indicators, and we reduced on equities—but we remain overweight, particularly in the U.S. We do believe that with the pullback in valuations—coupled with strong stimulus measures—there is some opportunity. We focus that [outlook] on large-cap [stocks], not small-cap; we think the headwinds for small-caps are greater, especially with credit concerns.

Mortgage-backed securities have encountered a fair amount of trading stress. But from the standpoint of credit quality and yield—and with the Federal Reserve coming in to make purchases—we think they’re interesting as far as the fixed-income world. We’re more cautious about high-yield [debt] right now. If clients do retain an interest, we encourage them to go active and be more selective.

We’ve also had a position on gold for over a year now. We don’t have a strategic allocation for gold, but we’ve been buying it tactically for about the last year or so. There’s almost no opportunity cost if there are [near] zero interest rates on Treasuries, and gold is one of those [assets] that has the right correlations—it’s positively correlated to equities when the market is going up, and negatively correlated when equities are going down. That gives it nice properties from a diversification standpoint.

Given that you’re still overweight on equities and see opportunities in that asset class, what is your outlook for the stock market on a sector-by-sector basis?

A sector that we’ve been very positive on has been health care. It’s had its own choppiness amid questions about changes in health care policy, but we do think it’s one of the few areas of the market with sustainable growth, and it’s relatively attractive from a valuation standpoint.

One area that’s been painful as of late has been financials. With the recent market correction, there are some pretty attractive businesses that we think will be poised to benefit on the upturn, and which now have more attractive valuations.

And another area is utilities. We were underweight on them for a few years but are now looking at the current market environment relative to interest rates that have fallen. We think the dividends are more durable than in other industries.

What about real estate? You’ve previously spoken of State Street building a position in publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs)—but given the struggles currently facing the world of brick-and-mortar real estate, are you still optimistic on that sector?

At the moment we are still overweight; if anything, we have added to our position in REITs. Selection matters a lot. Warehouses continue to be an area where there are attractive valuations, as is multifamily [residential real estate]. Retail is an area that we’ve been less interested in for a long time; malls have been under pressure well before COVID-19.

What I think this crisis is leading us to do across our entire book—whether it’s real estate or anything else—is pressure-testing all of the assumptions that underlie our cash flow. There are companies that may have been cash-flow-positive historically, but what’s the burn rate right now? How is each company responding, whether they have lines of credit or are doing things proactively to measure cash flow? Our teams are looking at that very carefully right now.

What’s your perspective on the historic measures taken by the Federal Reserve to stabilize the financial markets and keep credit flowing? How important were those measures as far as assuaging investors’ fears amid severe market volatility?

Our view is that the Fed’s expansion of its balance sheet is significantly more important than its reduction in interest rates, at least right now. The fixed-income markets were seizing up; there were no bids to be found, even for Treasuries. It was an extraordinary market where you couldn’t sell even the highest quality assets for any price—that was unheard-of for Treasuries.

The fact that they extended, and continue to look at extending, to other niche areas—even municipal bonds—is also critical. We’re in an environment where there’s not a credit crisis—at least not yet—but there is a bit of a solvency crisis in the sense that investors cannot exit positions that create their own kind of panic. We’re heading to a quarter-end where we may see a rebound, and most investors are going to want to sell fixed-income [assets] and buy equities. If they can’t sell, and have to do so at draconian costs, it’s going to be disadvantageous.

The Fed had their Mario Draghi “Whatever it takes” moment, and at least that restored some degree of confidence in the credit markets that there was a buyer of last resort, even for assets that they historically have not supported. The U.S. credit markets have traded in a much more orderly way on the back of that.

Yet there continue to be concerns about the state of the corporate credit markets—particularly the sheer volume of BBB-rated investment-grade debt, much of which could be downgraded to high-yield, junk bond status should economic conditions continue to worsen. How concerned are you about these dynamics, and what is your outlook on the corporate debt space at large?

We’re likely to have massive downgrades, which means by definition that the high-yield market will expand at a time when there’s less liquidity and less interest in buying high-yield bonds. You also have, in many cases, institutional investors in indexed products who become forced sellers in those environments. We’re very much watching that and trying to work with clients on whether there is flexibility to not divest.

But it’s also a great opportunity to upgrade a portfolio, if there are fallen angels that look more impressive from a high-yield perspective. It will be a challenge to navigate. Which are the businesses where you can say that this is a temporary disruption, and they can restore their credit ratings? Where are the areas [in the market] where there is access to low-interest loans? Government intervention will matter a lot.

The good news is that there isn’t a wall of refinancings [coming due]; it’s more about [companies’] ability to get to a more normal cash-flow environment. And covenants are another vulnerability. Banks don’t want to throw companies into default right now—they have huge exposures, and that’s one of the big vulnerabilities for the banks.

How have your clients been responding to all of this market volatility and the fear that we’re slipping into another recession? As investment managers, how have you looked to assuage their concerns and guide them through these conditions?

Most institutional investors have been almost trained not to think about tactical allocations; the vast majority are following their investment policies and staying invested. The one thing we’re having a lot of conversations about is quarter-end rebalancing; depending on how [clients] were allocated, they're looking at a rebalancing of decent magnitude at the end of the [first] quarter. In some cases, we’re looking at a selective rebalancing of some asset classes and not others, and what that means from an overall profile perspective.

One of the things we’re doing is spending time on participant communication. [Clients are] going to get quarter-end statements and see declines in their balances; how do they stay buckled in? I know I’m not looking at my statement [laughs].

Lastly, what advice would you have for young people entering or starting careers in financial services, particularly at such a historically volatile time?

The most important lesson that I ever learned was to know your stuff—know your facts, be a student, and don't just read the headlines and assume that gives you the information you need.

And be bold. These are the kinds of environments where our clients are looking for advice. Do the homework and create the scenarios and make the judgments, and most of the time, that will serve your clients well. Be a student, learn—and if you feel you’ve done enough research, be bold enough to put a view out there and defend it. That will serve you well.

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