新型冠狀病毒在世界范圍內瘋狂肆虐的這兩個月里,包括美國在內,大多數國家都選擇只對那些出現了明顯癥狀的人進行病毒檢測,并告訴其他人,如果他們懷疑自己感染了冠狀病毒,就去自我隔離。基于這種方法,自去年12月該病毒首次出現于中國武漢以來,已經有80萬人的病毒檢測結果呈陽性,其中美國就有超過16萬人。
如果展開隨機檢測的話,當局能了解到什么呢?或許,在冰島這個小國家能找到些線索。到目前為止,該國已經對11727人進行了檢測——約占其36.4萬總人口的3.2%。之所以能夠如此,部分也是因為該國備受贊譽的生物制藥公司deCODE Genetics在這場危機中提供了幫助。
自3月14日起,加利福尼亞生物科技巨頭安進公司(Amgen)的子公司deCODE就開始為全體冰島公民提供免費的冠狀病毒檢測。無論身體健康還是出現病癥,冰島人只要在網上填寫一份表格即可參加檢測。本月,DeCODE將與冰島公共衛生部門展開合作。自2月初以來,公共衛生部門一直在對高危和感染人群進行冠狀病毒篩查,而篩查開始數周之后,冰島才出現首個檢測結果呈陽性的病例。
科學家們表示,通過對健康和感染人群的篩查,冰島政府和deCODE公司已經收集了一份相當精確的新型冠狀病毒圖譜。篩查結果很能引人深思。上周三,在雷克雅未克的辦公室里接受《財富》雜志的電話采訪時,deCODE公司創始人兼首席執行官卡里·斯蒂芬森表示:“對高危易感人群的篩查結果顯示,這種病毒在社區內的傳播范圍比我們想象的要大得多。”截至上周四,?已有737人的病毒檢測結果呈陽性,約占冰島全國總檢測人數的6.3%。有15人住院治療,其中2人已經進了重癥監護室。其余確診病患——有很多人都未出現癥狀——已被勒令進行自我隔離。
斯蒂芬森說,該公司的最終目標是對冰島三分之一的人口進行檢測——其比例相當于美國對約1.15億人進行檢測。他補充說,本周deCODE公司的病毒檢測速度有所放緩,因為他們正忙于補充棉簽的庫存,這幾天就會開始提速。斯蒂芬森解釋說,檢測是為了追蹤每一個病例:“假設某社區約有3000人感染了病毒,那么為了在一段時間內控制住疫情,我們就得進行更多的篩查,找到被感染的人,把他們隔離起來。”
隨機檢測的意義
DeCODE公司的做法與美國及歐洲大多數國家的做法形成了鮮明對比。在歐洲,只有那些表現出明顯感染跡象的人才會接受冠狀病毒檢測。在周日的新聞發布會上,美國副總統邁克·彭斯說:“如果你沒有出現癥狀,就不需要做病毒檢測。”美國疾病控制與預防中心也給出了類似的建議,“不必給所有人做檢測。大多數人都只出現了輕微的癥狀,待在家里就能自己康復。”
現年70歲的斯蒂芬森曾是哈佛大學的一名神經學教授。1996年,他回到冰島創辦了自己的公司。他認為,政府沒有足夠的數據來追蹤冠狀病毒的起源,所以才不知道如何控制住疫情的傳播。
他說,在開始做隨即檢測之前,“他們對病毒在社會上傳播的方式和原因都完全沒有概念。事情就是這么簡單。”
斯蒂芬森表示,冰島政府2月份開始提供檢測時,就估計那些在寒假期間從阿爾卑斯山滑雪旅行歸來的游客中會有人感染上病毒,因為當時意大利和法國的阿爾卑斯山地區已經爆發了疫情。公共衛生部門也確實發現了受感染的游客。但從英國返回冰島的人群中也發現了一組感染病例,還有從美國返回的一例:這些感染者體內的冠狀病毒都經過了變異。斯蒂芬森說:“截至昨天,我們已經獲得了大約380種病毒的序列。”該公司計劃在本周以公共數據庫的形式對外公布關于變異病毒的數據。
在圍繞自我隔離的激烈辯論中,冰島保持著令人驚奇的冷靜。該國沒有下達封鎖法令,只是敦促人們盡可能地呆在家里。各小學也依然照常上課。
相比于強調自我隔離,該國更加重視檢測。冰島前總理大衛·京勒伊格松周二時在英國《旁觀者》(The Spectator)周刊上發表了一篇文章,表示:“所有國家都應該聽從世界衛生組織的建議,并以冰島為榜樣,‘檢測、檢測、再檢測’。”他說,該國的檢測策略“在全世界范圍內幾乎是獨一無二的”。
當然,冰島人口稀少,所以做檢測要比其它大多數國家都容易得多,甚至比韓國容易。擁有5000萬人口的韓國之所以能迅速控制住冠狀病毒的傳播,很大程度上要歸功于政府積極的檢測和隔離策略。在一封電子郵件中,冰島衛生部的工作人員告訴《財富》雜志,該國參與檢測人口占總人口的比例遠遠高于韓國,“從而對病毒的狀態產生了有價值的見解。”
DeCODE公司——和冰島這個國家——在分析其關于冠狀病毒的發現方面都處于極其罕見的地位,或許還有可能發現一些人更容易感染、生病的原因。這對科學家來說非常有價值,因為他們正在競相研究治療方法和疫苗,試圖避免冠狀病毒未來再度爆發。
自24年前成立以來,DeCODE公司已經繪制了冰島一半以上人口的DNA圖譜。斯蒂芬森說:“我們可以從另一半人口中推斷出數據。我們正處于合理的有利位置,可以開始探索這種病毒的易感性是否在某種程度上是由基因決定的。”目前,科學家們正在把DeCODE數據庫中的DNA圖譜與冰島冠狀病毒隨機檢測的結果進行對比,或許將成為新的可能。
斯蒂芬森說:“我們正在研究,試圖生成一組重疊的數據。我不認為還有其它地方有這樣的數據。”(財富中文網)
譯者:殷圓圓
新型冠狀病毒在世界范圍內瘋狂肆虐的這兩個月里,包括美國在內,大多數國家都選擇只對那些出現了明顯癥狀的人進行病毒檢測,并告訴其他人,如果他們懷疑自己感染了冠狀病毒,就去自我隔離。基于這種方法,自去年12月該病毒首次出現于中國武漢以來,已經有80萬人的病毒檢測結果呈陽性,其中美國就有超過16萬人。
如果展開隨機檢測的話,當局能了解到什么呢?或許,在冰島這個小國家能找到些線索。到目前為止,該國已經對11727人進行了檢測——約占其36.4萬總人口的3.2%。之所以能夠如此,部分也是因為該國備受贊譽的生物制藥公司deCODE Genetics在這場危機中提供了幫助。
自3月14日起,加利福尼亞生物科技巨頭安進公司(Amgen)的子公司deCODE就開始為全體冰島公民提供免費的冠狀病毒檢測。無論身體健康還是出現病癥,冰島人只要在網上填寫一份表格即可參加檢測。本月,DeCODE將與冰島公共衛生部門展開合作。自2月初以來,公共衛生部門一直在對高危和感染人群進行冠狀病毒篩查,而篩查開始數周之后,冰島才出現首個檢測結果呈陽性的病例。
科學家們表示,通過對健康和感染人群的篩查,冰島政府和deCODE公司已經收集了一份相當精確的新型冠狀病毒圖譜。篩查結果很能引人深思。上周三,在雷克雅未克的辦公室里接受《財富》雜志的電話采訪時,deCODE公司創始人兼首席執行官卡里·斯蒂芬森表示:“對高危易感人群的篩查結果顯示,這種病毒在社區內的傳播范圍比我們想象的要大得多。”截至上周四,?已有737人的病毒檢測結果呈陽性,約占冰島全國總檢測人數的6.3%。有15人住院治療,其中2人已經進了重癥監護室。其余確診病患——有很多人都未出現癥狀——已被勒令進行自我隔離。
斯蒂芬森說,該公司的最終目標是對冰島三分之一的人口進行檢測——其比例相當于美國對約1.15億人進行檢測。他補充說,本周deCODE公司的病毒檢測速度有所放緩,因為他們正忙于補充棉簽的庫存,這幾天就會開始提速。斯蒂芬森解釋說,檢測是為了追蹤每一個病例:“假設某社區約有3000人感染了病毒,那么為了在一段時間內控制住疫情,我們就得進行更多的篩查,找到被感染的人,把他們隔離起來。”
隨機檢測的意義
DeCODE公司的做法與美國及歐洲大多數國家的做法形成了鮮明對比。在歐洲,只有那些表現出明顯感染跡象的人才會接受冠狀病毒檢測。在周日的新聞發布會上,美國副總統邁克·彭斯說:“如果你沒有出現癥狀,就不需要做病毒檢測。”美國疾病控制與預防中心也給出了類似的建議,“不必給所有人做檢測。大多數人都只出現了輕微的癥狀,待在家里就能自己康復。”
現年70歲的斯蒂芬森曾是哈佛大學的一名神經學教授。1996年,他回到冰島創辦了自己的公司。他認為,政府沒有足夠的數據來追蹤冠狀病毒的起源,所以才不知道如何控制住疫情的傳播。
他說,在開始做隨即檢測之前,“他們對病毒在社會上傳播的方式和原因都完全沒有概念。事情就是這么簡單。”
斯蒂芬森表示,冰島政府2月份開始提供檢測時,就估計那些在寒假期間從阿爾卑斯山滑雪旅行歸來的游客中會有人感染上病毒,因為當時意大利和法國的阿爾卑斯山地區已經爆發了疫情。公共衛生部門也確實發現了受感染的游客。但從英國返回冰島的人群中也發現了一組感染病例,還有從美國返回的一例:這些感染者體內的冠狀病毒都經過了變異。斯蒂芬森說:“截至昨天,我們已經獲得了大約380種病毒的序列。”該公司計劃在本周以公共數據庫的形式對外公布關于變異病毒的數據。
在圍繞自我隔離的激烈辯論中,冰島保持著令人驚奇的冷靜。該國沒有下達封鎖法令,只是敦促人們盡可能地呆在家里。各小學也依然照常上課。
相比于強調自我隔離,該國更加重視檢測。冰島前總理大衛·京勒伊格松周二時在英國《旁觀者》(The Spectator)周刊上發表了一篇文章,表示:“所有國家都應該聽從世界衛生組織的建議,并以冰島為榜樣,‘檢測、檢測、再檢測’。”他說,該國的檢測策略“在全世界范圍內幾乎是獨一無二的”。
當然,冰島人口稀少,所以做檢測要比其它大多數國家都容易得多,甚至比韓國容易。擁有5000萬人口的韓國之所以能迅速控制住冠狀病毒的傳播,很大程度上要歸功于政府積極的檢測和隔離策略。在一封電子郵件中,冰島衛生部的工作人員告訴《財富》雜志,該國參與檢測人口占總人口的比例遠遠高于韓國,“從而對病毒的狀態產生了有價值的見解。”
DeCODE公司——和冰島這個國家——在分析其關于冠狀病毒的發現方面都處于極其罕見的地位,或許還有可能發現一些人更容易感染、生病的原因。這對科學家來說非常有價值,因為他們正在競相研究治療方法和疫苗,試圖避免冠狀病毒未來再度爆發。
自24年前成立以來,DeCODE公司已經繪制了冰島一半以上人口的DNA圖譜。斯蒂芬森說:“我們可以從另一半人口中推斷出數據。我們正處于合理的有利位置,可以開始探索這種病毒的易感性是否在某種程度上是由基因決定的。”目前,科學家們正在把DeCODE數據庫中的DNA圖譜與冰島冠狀病毒隨機檢測的結果進行對比,或許將成為新的可能。
斯蒂芬森說:“我們正在研究,試圖生成一組重疊的數據。我不認為還有其它地方有這樣的數據。”(財富中文網)
譯者:殷圓圓
In the two months since COVID-19 began its rampage across the world, most countries, including the U.S., have opted to test only those people with active symptoms, telling others to self-isolate if they suspect they are infected with the coronavirus. Based on that approach, more than?480,000?people have tested positive for the virus since it first appeared in Wuhan, China, last December, including more than 68,500 in the U.S.
But what might authorities learn if people were tested randomly instead? Some early clues may be found in the tiny country of Iceland. So far, the country has tested 11,727 people—about 3.2% of its population of 364,000. It has done so in part by enlisting the country’s prized biopharma company deCODE Genetics to help tackle the crisis.
Since March 14 deCODE, a subsidiary of the California biotech giant Amgen, has offered a free coronavirus test to any Icelander, sick or healthy, who simply fills out an online form. DeCODE joined forces this month with Iceland’s public health authorities, which had been screening high-risk or sick people for the coronavirus since early February, weeks before even the first Icelander tested positive for the virus.
By screening healthy as well as sick people, say scientists, Iceland and deCODE have assembled a far more accurate picture of COVID-19. And the results are sobering. “The virus had a much, much wider spread in the community than we would have assumed, based on the screening of high-risk people,” deCODE’s founder and CEO Kári Stefánsson told Fortune by phone from his office in Reykjavík on Wednesday. As of Thursday,?737 have tested positive, or roughly 6.3% of all people tested in the country. Of those, 15 are in hospitals, two of them in intensive care. The rest—many of whom are asymptomatic—have been ordered to self-quarantine.
Stefánsson says the company aims in the end to test about one-third of Iceland’s population—the equivalent of the U.S. testing about 115 million people. He adds that deCODE’s testing has slowed down this week, as the company scrambles to restock its supply of cotton swabs, but will ramp up again within days. “Let’s assume about 3,000 people in the community are infected,” Stefánsson says. The idea, he explains, is to track every case. “To contain the infection for some period of time, we need to screen more, find those individuals, and quarantine them.”
The value of random testing
DeCODE’s model stands in sharp contrast to that of the U.S. and most countries in Europe, where only those who show clear signs of infection have been tested for the coronavirus. “If you don’t have symptoms, you don’t need a test,” Vice President Mike Pence said in a press conference on Sunday. Similar advice comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, whose website notes, “[N]ot everyone needs to be tested. Most people have mild illness and are able to recover at home.”
Stefánsson, 70, who was a professor of neurology at Harvard University before returning to his homeland to launch his company in 1996, rejects that strategy. He believes it leaves governments unable to understand how to control the spread of the coronavirus, since they have too little data to track its origins.
Until they do random testing, he says, “they do not have the faintest idea of how and why it is spreading in the society,” he says. “It is as simple as that.”
Stefánsson says that when Iceland began testing people in February, it expected to find infections among those who had returned from skiing trips to the Alps during the winter vacation, because an outbreak was then beginning in Italy and France’s Alpine region. Indeed, public health authorities did find infected vacationers. But Iceland also found a cluster of infections among people who had returned from England, as well as one from the U.S.—each of which presented with a separate mutation of the coronavirus. “As of yesterday, we have sequences for about 380 viruses,” Stefánsson says. The company plans to release the data on those mutations in the form of public databases this week.
Amid the fraught debate over self-quarantining, Iceland has remained curiously calm. It has no lockdown laws in place, simply urging people to remain at home if possible. Elementary schools remain open.
Rather than stress self-distancing above all, the focus has been on testing. “All countries should listen to the World Health Organization and follow the example of Iceland when it comes to the mantra ‘Test, test, test,’” former Prime Minister David Gunnlaugsson wrote in Britain’s?The Spectator?on Tuesday. He called the country’s testing strategy “virtually unparalleled anywhere in the world.”
Of course, Iceland’s minuscule population makes it far easier to test there than in most other countries—including even South Korea, where the swift control of the coronavirus among its 50 million people is credited in large part to the government’s aggressive testing and quarantine strategy. In an email, Iceland’s Health Ministry tells Fortune the country has tested a far higher proportion of its population than South Korea has, “yielding valuable insights into the behavior of the virus.”
DeCODE—and Iceland in general—is in an exceedingly rare position in its ability to analyze its findings on the coronavirus, and perhaps detect what makes some people more susceptible to infection and illness. That could be hugely valuable for scientists as they race to develop treatments and vaccines, and try to stave off any future coronavirus outbreak.
Since launching 24 years ago, deCODE has mapped the DNA of more than half the population of Iceland, “and we can infer data from the other half,” Stefánsson says. “We are in a reasonably good position to begin to explore if the susceptibility to the infection is in part genetically dictated,” he says. As scientists compare the DNA in deCODE’s data banks with the results of Iceland’s random coronavirus testing, the possibilities might begin to emerge.
“We are working on that, trying to generate a set of overlapping data,” Stefánsson says. “I don’t think there is another place where there is data like this.”