一周前,當(dāng)全美各大型零售商紛紛因新冠疫情蔓延而宣布暫停營業(yè)時(shí),不少人以為只需兩周便可恢復(fù)正常。
事實(shí)證明,這種預(yù)期過于樂觀了。
蔻馳(Coach)、Abercrombie & Fitch和Men’s Wearhouse等連鎖店延長了店鋪關(guān)閉時(shí)間,因?yàn)闊o論是美國還是西歐,距離恢復(fù)正常顯然還有待時(shí)日。
原本預(yù)計(jì)的3月27日恢復(fù)營業(yè)已然無望,蔻馳的母公司Tapestry(其旗下還有Kate Spade)現(xiàn)在寄希望于4月10日;Men’s Wearhouse則預(yù)計(jì)近期不會(huì)有男性西裝的需求,把重新開張的日期定在了5月4日。它的母公司Tailored Brands(旗下另有Jos A. Bank)已經(jīng)對(duì)所有門店員工給予強(qiáng)制休假,直至恢復(fù)營業(yè)。Nordstrom在原計(jì)劃基礎(chǔ)上再推遲一周,打算4月5日重開。至于Abercrombie,和Apple一樣,原本設(shè)定了一個(gè)具體日期,而現(xiàn)在只說門店將繼續(xù)關(guān)閉,等待進(jìn)一步通知。
關(guān)閉門店使得零售業(yè)陷入了有史以來最大的危機(jī)。研究公司GlobalData Retail近來一直在關(guān)注事態(tài)的發(fā)展,他們估計(jì),截至上周四上午,全美40.9%的營業(yè)空間已經(jīng)處于關(guān)閉狀態(tài)。該公司預(yù)測(cè),本月全美零售額將下降12.4%,4月將下降11.6%,五月將下降6.1%,屆時(shí),危機(jī)應(yīng)開始緩解。
有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,零售業(yè)有望在復(fù)活節(jié)前復(fù)蘇,特朗普總統(tǒng)也表示希望能在屆時(shí)“重啟”經(jīng)濟(jì)。然而,鑒于不少州和城市已采取封閉措施來減緩病毒的傳播,且預(yù)計(jì)拐點(diǎn)不會(huì)在未來幾周內(nèi)出現(xiàn),即便4月12日的期待似乎也不太現(xiàn)實(shí)。
華爾街人士似乎也認(rèn)為停業(yè)狀況不會(huì)很快結(jié)束。Jefferies的分析師們?cè)谝环蓊}為《關(guān)門末日》的研究報(bào)告中說,“商店關(guān)閉的時(shí)間可能會(huì)比我們想象的長”。此外,該公司還警告稱,電子商務(wù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無法彌補(bǔ)這一缺口。畢竟,數(shù)字銷售的利潤低得多,尤其是貨運(yùn)訂單,顧客選擇網(wǎng)上購物大大降低了成本。
很明顯,即便是那些目前仍在營業(yè)且運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)良好的零售商也開始越來越擔(dān)憂。得益于消費(fèi)者囤積物品,塔吉特從3月至今業(yè)績喜人,但該公司仍以經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性為由,在上周撤回了2020年的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)。
那些經(jīng)營非必需品的商家則面臨著更大的挑戰(zhàn)。之前,Abercrombie、Tapestry和Nordstrom也加入了申請(qǐng)信貸、獲取現(xiàn)金的行列,目前他們?nèi)阅苊懔S持,但收益均大幅下降。百思買、Ulta Beauty和Kohl等連鎖店也已在近期采取措施增加現(xiàn)金來源。
此外,還有更多的艱難抉擇正在醞釀之中:梅西百貨(Macy’s)、Gap Inc.、安德瑪、J.C. Penney以及不少大型商場(chǎng)原本都計(jì)劃這周開始營業(yè),但他們很有可能不得不重新考慮。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:胡萌琦
一周前,當(dāng)全美各大型零售商紛紛因新冠疫情蔓延而宣布暫停營業(yè)時(shí),不少人以為只需兩周便可恢復(fù)正常。
事實(shí)證明,這種預(yù)期過于樂觀了。
蔻馳(Coach)、Abercrombie & Fitch和Men’s Wearhouse等連鎖店延長了店鋪關(guān)閉時(shí)間,因?yàn)闊o論是美國還是西歐,距離恢復(fù)正常顯然還有待時(shí)日。
原本預(yù)計(jì)的3月27日恢復(fù)營業(yè)已然無望,蔻馳的母公司Tapestry(其旗下還有Kate Spade)現(xiàn)在寄希望于4月10日;Men’s Wearhouse則預(yù)計(jì)近期不會(huì)有男性西裝的需求,把重新開張的日期定在了5月4日。它的母公司Tailored Brands(旗下另有Jos A. Bank)已經(jīng)對(duì)所有門店員工給予強(qiáng)制休假,直至恢復(fù)營業(yè)。Nordstrom在原計(jì)劃基礎(chǔ)上再推遲一周,打算4月5日重開。至于Abercrombie,和Apple一樣,原本設(shè)定了一個(gè)具體日期,而現(xiàn)在只說門店將繼續(xù)關(guān)閉,等待進(jìn)一步通知。
關(guān)閉門店使得零售業(yè)陷入了有史以來最大的危機(jī)。研究公司GlobalData Retail近來一直在關(guān)注事態(tài)的發(fā)展,他們估計(jì),截至上周四上午,全美40.9%的營業(yè)空間已經(jīng)處于關(guān)閉狀態(tài)。該公司預(yù)測(cè),本月全美零售額將下降12.4%,4月將下降11.6%,五月將下降6.1%,屆時(shí),危機(jī)應(yīng)開始緩解。
有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,零售業(yè)有望在復(fù)活節(jié)前復(fù)蘇,特朗普總統(tǒng)也表示希望能在屆時(shí)“重啟”經(jīng)濟(jì)。然而,鑒于不少州和城市已采取封閉措施來減緩病毒的傳播,且預(yù)計(jì)拐點(diǎn)不會(huì)在未來幾周內(nèi)出現(xiàn),即便4月12日的期待似乎也不太現(xiàn)實(shí)。
華爾街人士似乎也認(rèn)為停業(yè)狀況不會(huì)很快結(jié)束。Jefferies的分析師們?cè)谝环蓊}為《關(guān)門末日》的研究報(bào)告中說,“商店關(guān)閉的時(shí)間可能會(huì)比我們想象的長”。此外,該公司還警告稱,電子商務(wù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無法彌補(bǔ)這一缺口。畢竟,數(shù)字銷售的利潤低得多,尤其是貨運(yùn)訂單,顧客選擇網(wǎng)上購物大大降低了成本。
很明顯,即便是那些目前仍在營業(yè)且運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)良好的零售商也開始越來越擔(dān)憂。得益于消費(fèi)者囤積物品,塔吉特從3月至今業(yè)績喜人,但該公司仍以經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性為由,在上周撤回了2020年的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)。
那些經(jīng)營非必需品的商家則面臨著更大的挑戰(zhàn)。之前,Abercrombie、Tapestry和Nordstrom也加入了申請(qǐng)信貸、獲取現(xiàn)金的行列,目前他們?nèi)阅苊懔S持,但收益均大幅下降。百思買、Ulta Beauty和Kohl等連鎖店也已在近期采取措施增加現(xiàn)金來源。
此外,還有更多的艱難抉擇正在醞釀之中:梅西百貨(Macy’s)、Gap Inc.、安德瑪、J.C. Penney以及不少大型商場(chǎng)原本都計(jì)劃這周開始營業(yè),但他們很有可能不得不重新考慮。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:胡萌琦
When large national retailers started announcing temporary store closingsearly last week because of the coronavirus spreading, many seemed to think two weeks would do the trick.
That expectation is proving to have been wildly optimistic.
Coach, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Men’s Wearhouse are among the chains on Thursday to extend store closings as it’s becoming clear a return to normal is still a way off in the United States and Western Europe.
Coach parent Tapestry, which also owns Kate Spade, now hopes to reopen stores April 10 instead of March 27, while Men’s Wearhouse, anticipating that few men will be needing to buy a new suit anytime soon, has set May 4 as a return day. Its parent company, Tailored Brands, which also owns Jos. A. Bank, has furloughed all store staff until then. Nordstrom now plans to reopen a week later than planned, on April 5. As for Abercrombie, like Apple, it had initially set a specific date but now says only that its stores are closed until further notice.
The closings are plunging the retail sector into one of its biggest crises ever. Research firm GlobalData Retail has been tracking the closings and by Thursday morning estimated that 40.9% of retail square footage in the U.S. is currently closed. The firm now expects retail sales to be down 12.4% this month, 11.6% in April, and 6.1% in May, when the crisis should start easing.
Some of the hoped-for return-to-business dates come before Easter, the date by which President Trump has said he wants to “reopen” the economy. With many states and cities shutting down to slow the virus’s spread and its peak not expected for weeks, even April 12 seems unrealistic.
Wall Street also seems to think the closures won’t end any time soon. In a research note titled “Closeageddon,” Jefferies analysts warned that “stores could be closed longer than we think.” What’s more, the firm warned, e-commerce won't come near making up the shortfall. And digital sales are much less profitable anyway, especially shipped orders; the option to have a shopper pick up an online order at a store cuts costs enormously.
It’s clear that retailers, even those open for business and doing well in this environment, are growing anxious. Despite stellar results in March so far, thanks to stock-up trips, Target this week withdrew its financial?forecasts for 2020, citing economic uncertainty.
Others that sell nonessential items are more challenged. Abercrombie, Tapestry, and Nordstrom were the latest to tap credit lines this week to have access to cash at a time they are still incurring costs but dealing with a drastic drop in revenue. Best Buy, Ulta Beauty, and Kohl’s are among the many other chains to have taken steps to shore up their access to cash in the past week.
More tough decisions are coming: Macy’s, Gap Inc., Under Armour, and J.C. Penney, as well as major mall developers are among the many companies to have planned to reopen in the next week but will most likely have to reconsider those dates.