上個月，這位億萬富翁投資者在美國全國廣播公司財經頻道（CNBC）的節目中表示，除非聯邦政府加大投入刺激經濟，否則美國股市的“最終審判之日”即將來臨。在最近提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中，Icahn Enterprises證明了這位投資者絕不只是胡吹大氣。該公司現在的凈空頭頭寸已經達到了149%。

這意味著伊坎的空頭頭寸價值——或者說他的基金通過借貸而不是購買獲得的金融資產——達到了多頭頭寸價值的149%。伊坎希望通過這些資產的貶值來掙錢，屆時，他就能以比借貸時更低的價格購入這些公司的股票，從而賺取其中的差價。

伊坎在今年4月表示，因為低利率的緣故，股價被人為地推高了，但是基本的經濟要素無法讓股票維持在這樣的價格上。在5月5日的收益電話會議上，Icahn Enterprises的首席執行官基斯?科扎強調了這種觀點。他說：“比起股市上漲20%，我們認為股市下跌20%的可能性大得多。”

財經博客Zero Hedge把Icahn Enterprises的投資組合與公認最看跌的對沖基金Horseman Global進行了對比，從而更直觀地體現了這次伊坎空頭頭寸的規模。Horseman Global通過做空已經實現了連續四年的盈利，他們的凈空頭頭寸只有98%，遠低于伊坎的149%。

到目前為止，伊坎的賭注還沒有收到回報，2016年的前三個月，Icahn Enterprises的投資基金虧損了12.8%。不過這位著名的投資人正在押下重注，他會在未來證明自己是對的。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

Last month, the billionaire investor took to CNBC’s airwaves to argue that “a day of reckoning” was coming for American stock markets unless the federal government stimulates the economy with more spending. In a recent filing with the SEC, Icahn Enterprises IEP -2.83% showed that the investor isn’t fooling around, announcing that it had a net short position of 149%.

That means that the value of Icahn’ s short positions—or financial assets that his funds have borrowed rather than bought—is worth 149% more than the value of his long positions. Icahn hopes to make money on these assets declining in value, at which point he would cash out by buying shares in companies at a cheaper price than what he borrowed them for, pocketing the difference in price.

In April, Icahn argued that stock prices have been pushed artificially high by low interest rates, but that economic fundamentals could not support those prices. During an earnings call on May 5th, Icahn Enterprises CEO Keith Cozza underscored these views. “We’re much more concerned about the market going down 20% than we are it going up 20%,” he said.

To put this short position in context, finance blog Zero Hedge compared Icahn Enterprises’ portfolio to what it had considered to be the most bearish hedge fund, Horseman Global, which has profitably run a short book for four years. Horseman’s net short position is just 98%, far less than Icahn’s 149%.

So far, Icahn’s bets haven’t paid off, with Icahn Enterprises investment funds losing 12.8% in the first three months of 2016, but the famed investor is betting big that he will be proved right in the long run.