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10億女性將如何改變商界?

10億女性將如何改變商界?

DeAnne Aguirre 2012-10-09
僅僅未來(lái)的十年之內(nèi),就有近10億女性將進(jìn)入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。尤其是在包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體,女性將在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域擁有越來(lái)越大的發(fā)言權(quán)。這樣破天荒的變化會(huì)給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行帶來(lái)怎樣的改變?

????如果讓您列出未來(lái)幾十年可能對(duì)商界影響最大的一些因素,你也許會(huì)舉出一些共同的主題:科技演變,市場(chǎng)全球化,西方國(guó)家的財(cái)政挑戰(zhàn),等等。但有一個(gè)因素或許是你沒(méi)有想到的,那就是女性。

????根據(jù)我們的研究,僅未來(lái)十年,就將首次有近10億女性進(jìn)入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。她們將極大地改變?nèi)虻纳虡I(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)世界。

????這些女性是誰(shuí)?我們稱(chēng)她們?yōu)椤暗谌齻€(gè)10億”,因?yàn)樗齻兊慕?jīng)濟(jì)影響絕不會(huì)亞于中國(guó)或印度各自的10多億人口。雖然如今這些女性在很多市場(chǎng)中都被忽視,在另一些市場(chǎng)中受到壓制,但無(wú)論是作為員工,還是企業(yè)家,她們正日益在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中占據(jù)一席之地。用不了太久,她們也將在管理層中擁有自己的位置。一旦她們開(kāi)始贏得領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位,她們將改變?nèi)虮姸嘀麢C(jī)構(gòu)的經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力和企業(yè)文化。

????迄今為止,這些女性缺乏一些基本的條件,無(wú)法為國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)做貢獻(xiàn)。她們中有的人沒(méi)有受到過(guò)必要的教育和就業(yè)培訓(xùn),但更多是因?yàn)榉伞⒓彝?、后勤或?jīng)濟(jì)原因而沒(méi)有工作。根據(jù)國(guó)際勞工組織(International Labour Organization)的數(shù)據(jù),到2020年將有約8.65億的工作年齡(20-65歲)女性,其中8.12億居住在新興國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家。

????這支勞動(dòng)大軍的興起對(duì)于私營(yíng)部門(mén)是一個(gè)極大的機(jī)會(huì)。無(wú)論是在裝配線(xiàn)上,是擔(dān)任電話(huà)銷(xiāo)售,還是出現(xiàn)在研發(fā)實(shí)驗(yàn)室或董事會(huì)會(huì)議室內(nèi),女性參與度的提高都將推動(dòng)增長(zhǎng),打開(kāi)新的市場(chǎng)。深知這一點(diǎn)的公司早已采取措施,更好地融合全球女性。

????比如,高盛(Goldman Sachs)推出了為期五年的“萬(wàn)名女性”(10,000 Women)計(jì)劃,拿出1億美元為女性企業(yè)家們提供商業(yè)和管理培訓(xùn)。這些女性的企業(yè)發(fā)展已經(jīng)超越了小微貸款層面,但尚未有足夠的資信獲得傳統(tǒng)融資。該計(jì)劃目前在22個(gè)國(guó)家運(yùn)作,有超過(guò)80個(gè)本地合作伙伴,提供經(jīng)營(yíng)、人力資源和商業(yè)計(jì)劃發(fā)展等實(shí)務(wù)培訓(xùn)。截至2012年5月,已有超過(guò)6,000名女性已經(jīng)報(bào)名參與計(jì)劃,或者已經(jīng)結(jié)業(yè)。目前,高盛已經(jīng)開(kāi)始和公共部門(mén)及非政府組織合作,擴(kuò)大計(jì)劃覆蓋面。

????有些國(guó)家目前仍然在努力走出經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷的困境,女性對(duì)這些國(guó)家意味著更大的機(jī)會(huì)。我們的保守估算顯示,在美國(guó),如果女性就業(yè)率追平男性,總體GDP將增加5%。在日本,這樣的變化將使GDP增加9%。

????在發(fā)展中國(guó)家,這一效應(yīng)將更加顯著。阿聯(lián)酋的GDP將由此增加12%,埃及增加34%。

????“第三個(gè)10億”的崛起部分源于一些思想進(jìn)步的國(guó)家意識(shí)到女性帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)會(huì),因而著手采取措施幫助她們。它們?yōu)榕兲峁└嗟氖芙逃龣C(jī)會(huì)、制定養(yǎng)老托幼政策、支持創(chuàng)業(yè)家以及推行女性公平就業(yè)政策。

????所有這些變化帶來(lái)了一個(gè)有意思的問(wèn)題:隨著更多女性加入就業(yè)大軍,未來(lái)幾十年《財(cái)富》雜志“最具影響力女性排行榜”會(huì)有怎樣的變化?更具體點(diǎn),比如到2040年,將會(huì)是怎樣一個(gè)狀況?雖然沒(méi)有人能夠準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái),但我們對(duì)此還是有些大概的想法。

????If you were to list the factors with the biggest potential impact on the business world over the next few decades, you'd likely cite some common themes - evolving technology, the globalization of markets, and fiscal challenges in Western countries, perhaps. But here's one you might not have considered: women.

????According to our research, nearly 1 billion women will enter the global economy for the first time in the coming decade alone. And they will dramatically reshape the world of business and economies, globally.

????Who are these women? We call them the "third billion," in that their economic impact will be just as significant as that of the billion-plus populations in China or India, respectively. While these women have been overlooked in many markets -- and actively suppressed in others -- they are increasingly taking their place in the global economy, as both employees and entrepreneurs. It will not be long before they take their place as executives as well. Once these women begin to earn positions of leadership, they will change the economic potential and corporate culture of the world's most esteemed organizations.

????To date, these women have lacked the fundamental requirements needed to contribute to their national economies. They either haven't had the necessary education and training to work, or -- more frequently -- they simply couldn't, because of legal, familial, logistical, or financial issues. Of the roughly 865 million women who will be of working age (between the ages of 20 and 65) by 2020, according to the International Labour Organization, 812 million live in emerging and developing nations.

????For the private sector, this emerging workforce represents a significant opportunity. Greater participation from women -- on the assembly line, on sales calls, in R&D labs, and in the boardroom -- can inspire growth and open new markets. Companies that understand this are already taking measures to better integrate women around the world.

????For example, Goldman Sachs (GS) launched the 10,000 Women initiative, a five-year, $100 million effort to provide business and management education to female entrepreneurs. These women have grown beyond microfinance but don't yet have the track record to access traditional forms of capital. The program, now operating in 22 countries and working with more than 80 local partners, provides practical training in operations, human resources, and business plan development. As of May 2012, more than 6,000 women had enrolled in or graduated from the program, and Goldman has begun working with the public sector and nongovernmental organizations to increase the program's reach.

????For countries struggling to break out of economic doldrums, women represent an even bigger opportunity. Our estimates (which are conservative) show that if female employment rates were to match male employment rates in the United States, overall gross domestic product (GDP) would increase by 5%. In Japan, such a change could raise GDP by 9%.

????In developing economies, the effect will be even more pronounced. The United Arab Emirates would see a boost of 12% in GDP, and the Egyptian economy would grow by 34%.

????The rising tide of the third billion is being enabled, in part, by progressive-minded countries that recognize the economic opportunity that women present and are taking steps to empower them. They're offering better access to education for girls, instituting policies regarding the care of children and the elderly, supporting entrepreneurs, and enforcing access-to-work policies for women.

????All of these changes raise an intriguing question: As more women join the workforce over time, how will Fortune's Most Powerful Women (MPW) list change in the coming decades? More specifically, what will it look like in, say, 2040? While no one knows for sure, we have some ideas.

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