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億客行公司（Expedia）于12月3日將首席執行官馬克·奧克斯托姆和首席財務官阿蘭·皮克里爾趕下了臺，理由是公司戰略上的分歧，這讓華爾街一片嘩然。但一些華爾街人士并不相信，管理層換人能夠解決這家在線旅游巨頭的種種問題。

億客行正在越來越快地轉型為一家綜合性的上下游銜接的旅游平臺，今年年初時公司的（現在要稱，前）首席執行官奧克斯托姆開始推動品牌和技術的融合——董事會主席巴里·迪勒在12月3日的聲明中稱之為“雄心勃勃的重組計劃”。但第三季度的財報令人沮喪（未達華爾街預期），而第四季度的營收預期也令人失望，億客行的董事會終于決定驅逐首席執行官和首席財務官，目前公司暫時由迪勒領導。

投資者們似乎被此消息鼓舞，公司股價在12月3日一度被推高了約6%。

不過有些分析師認為，奧克斯托姆的下臺另有原因。晨星公司（Morningstar）的丹·瓦希爾萊克認為奧克斯托姆在2018年至2019年年初的時段“執行效率相當高”，公司的稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）超過預期，“看起來奧克斯托姆的離任，以及第四季度的慘淡預期，是由于他的戰略沒有側重于公司業務的重心。”在與瓦希爾萊克有一樣想法的人看來，奧克斯托姆和皮克里爾的下臺是“令人失望的”，因為他們認為這位前首席執行官的戰略，從長期來看是“謹慎的”。

來自谷歌的壓力

億客行的一大問題，是依賴于谷歌的流量。“億客行在谷歌的免費自然搜索中，已經有較高的曝光度，但這一搜索方式正在被谷歌刻意淡化，所以億客行也面臨因為谷歌的壓力而產生的風險。”晨星公司的瓦希爾萊克說。盡管谷歌推動的谷歌旅游（Google Travel）（目的是將谷歌地圖變成一個包括旅游服務的“超級app”）并不構成對億客行的競爭威脅，但谷歌對旅行社的市場營銷渠道壓力，使得谷歌成為一個“威脅”，并增加了億客行的市場營銷支出。

事實上，這也是為何一些分析師，比如艾弗考爾國際戰略投資集團（Evercore ISI）的李·霍洛維茨，認為“改革管理層，未能解決億客行面臨的挑戰——億客行需要減少谷歌搜索引擎優化作為其流量來源的權重，否則當谷歌持續將更多流量從免費改為付費時，億客行將被進一步盤剝。”霍洛維茨在一份報告中如此解讀。

對于晨星公司的瓦希爾萊克來說，問題在于“億客行自己的訂購網站能否補上非直接流量渠道的損失，能否通過在自己平臺上提供優質用戶體驗，來提高自己網站的不用花錢的直接流量呢？”

即便億客行重新側重于現有的核心業務，短期的業績和增長總會有起伏（據公司稱，應該這么定位），但有些分析師認為，這么做反而會傷害億客行追趕其他旅游公司的長遠而有益的戰略目標。競爭對手如貓途鷹（TripAdvisor）和繽客（Booking.com）就在執行類似的融合品牌與科技的戰略，晨星公司認為通過一個“上下游銜接的旅行體驗”將會增加公司的長遠價值。而像愛彼迎（Airbnb）這樣的競爭對手，也在構建全融合的平臺。

目前由迪勒領銜的新領導層，未來會不會繞回到奧克斯托姆的融合戰略去呢，這有待觀察。“我認為他們將某一領域進行融合的投資，視為一種資源分散，從短期業績中取消這種投資，回歸業務重心，顯然業績會提高。”瓦希爾萊克對《財富》雜志說，“但我希望這種業績的提高，不是以投資于平臺的長遠價值為代價的。”（財富中文網）

譯者：宣峰

Expedia surprised the Street on December 3 as CEO Mark Okerstrom and CFO Alan Pickerill were ousted from the travel agency company amid a disagreement over strategy, the company said. But some on the Street aren’t convinced a switch-up at the top will fix the online travel giant’s problems.

As companies are increasingly shifting toward integrated and connected trip-platforms, the company’s now ex-CEO Okerstrom began a push for Expedia to integrate its brands and technology earlier in the year—a strategy that board chairman Barry Diller called an “ambitious reorganization plan” in a statement on December 3. And after a dismal 3rd quarter earnings report (missing Wall Street’s estimates) and disappointing 4th quarter estimates, Expedia’s board ousted the CEO and CFO, and said Diller would lead the company for the time being.

Investors seemed encouraged by the news, pushing the stock to close 6% higher on December 3.

Yet some analysts think Okerstrom was onto something. Following what Morningstar’s Dan Wasiolek describes as a period from 2018 into early 2019 of Okerstrom “executing pretty effectively,” with performance exceeding EBITDA expectations, “it seemed like the reason for the departures and the reason for the poor [4th quarter] outlook is being pinned on a loss of focus for the overall core of the business due to Okerstrom’s strategy.” To those like Wasiolek, the ousting of Okerstrom and Pickerill was “disappoint[ing]” given he believed the former CEO’s strategy was “prudent” over the long-term.

Pressure from Google

One big issue has been Expedia’s reliance on traffic from Google. “[Expedia] already had a higher exposure to free, organic search that Google is de-emphasizing, so they were more at risk of feeling the pressure from Google,” Morningstar’s Wasiolek says. Yet while Google’s push into Google Travel (and the company’s move to make Google Maps a “super app” with travel services included) does present a competitive concern for Expedia, it’s the pressure on the travel agency’s marketing channel that makes Google a “threat,” and has weighed on Expedia’s marketing spend, Wasiolek says.

In fact, that’s why some analysts like Evercore ISI’s Lee Horowitz thinks “there are challenges at [Expedia] unsolved by relieving management—Expedia needs to wean off of Google SEO as a source of traffic or face getting further squeezed as Google continues to convert more traffic from Free to Paid,” Horowitz wrote in a note.

And for Morningstar’s Wasiolek, the question is, “can Expedia booking offset that indirect channel by giving a great user experience on their own platforms that drives their direct traffic, where they’re not paying marketing, higher?”

Even if a push to refocus strategy on Expedia’s existing core businesses were to bump short-term outlook and growth (which, according to the company, it should), some analysts think it could be to the detriment of a more long-term, beneficial strategy that would ultimately help Expedia keep pace with other travel companies. Competitors TripAdvisor and Booking.com have been implementing a similar strategy of integrating their brands and technology, which Morningstar believes adds long-term value through a “fully connected trip.” Even competitors like Airbnb are building out fully-integrated platforms to compete.

Whether or not the new leadership, currently headed up by Diller, will circle back to Okerstrom’s integration strategy in the future is yet to be seen. “I think that they [just] saw that one area of integration investment as a distraction, and taking away from the near-term results, and if you remove that and return to your focus, you’ll see some stronger results,” Wasiolek tells Fortune. “I just don’t want it to come at the [expense of the] long-term view of investing into the platform.”