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由于資本主義存在周期性缺陷，問題不是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會(huì)不會(huì)來，而是何時(shí)到來。目前，失業(yè)率很低，消費(fèi)者也在消費(fèi)。兩大強(qiáng)力信號(hào)都表明下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能比2008年溫和。2008年的衰退持續(xù)了大約18個(gè)月，導(dǎo)致260萬美國(guó)工人失業(yè)。

雖然很不幸的是沒有工作能夠完全抵御經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退影響，但即使在2008年也有一些領(lǐng)域和職能相對(duì)安全，下一次衰退中表現(xiàn)應(yīng)該也不會(huì)差。

職業(yè)網(wǎng)站 Glassdoor的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·張伯倫表示：“從歷史上看，有些行業(yè)和職業(yè)與商業(yè)周期波動(dòng)的關(guān)聯(lián)度較低。”過去，醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生、教育和公用事業(yè)領(lǐng)域的工作在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退周期中并未出現(xiàn)太多失業(yè)。”工會(huì)職位和政府公務(wù)員在一定程度上也能夠避免受張伯倫稱之為“經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)利劍”的影響。

為找出哪些工作最有機(jī)會(huì)平穩(wěn)度過下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，最近Glassdoor對(duì)其數(shù)據(jù)庫進(jìn)行了深入研究。然而類似工作職位并不容易得到，因?yàn)橥ǔＰ枰獙ｉT的培訓(xùn)和從業(yè)許可。

以下是研究人員列出10種比較能夠抵御經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的工作（排名不分先后），以及具體原因：

1. 教師

公立學(xué)校的教師通常是工會(huì)成員，所以辭退很難。除此之外，報(bào)告還指出，無論經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)如何，“孩子總要上學(xué)。”

2. 醫(yī)師助理

這是很難進(jìn)入的領(lǐng)域。從業(yè)需要學(xué)士學(xué)位再加上兩年Glassdoor稱之為“相當(dāng)于精簡(jiǎn)版醫(yī)學(xué)院”教育，通常接下來是類似醫(yī)學(xué)住院醫(yī)師的實(shí)踐培訓(xùn)，才能夠取得所在州的從業(yè)執(zhí)照。但是，即使在經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的時(shí)候，人們?nèi)匀恍枰t(yī)療衛(wèi)生服務(wù)。此外，該研究指出，“醫(yī)師助理工作地點(diǎn)靈活，必要時(shí)調(diào)整從業(yè)地區(qū)很容易。”

3. 教授

通常需要有博士學(xué)位，還要有教學(xué)和研究經(jīng)驗(yàn)。但研究稱，獲聘終身教授（通常要等待漫長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間而且很困難）就如同“拿到頭號(hào)鐵飯碗”。該研究補(bǔ)充稱，由于終身教授職位實(shí)際上等于終身雇傭，堪稱“學(xué)術(shù)界最令人羨慕的成就之一”。

4. 會(huì)計(jì)師或?qū)徲?jì)師

無論經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)如何，會(huì)計(jì)師總是需要的，尤其是在納稅季。審計(jì)師可能更加安全，因?yàn)闊o論經(jīng)濟(jì)是否衰退，根據(jù)法律要求上市公司都要進(jìn)行審計(jì)。兩個(gè)職位都需要會(huì)計(jì)、財(cái)務(wù)或商業(yè)方面的學(xué)士學(xué)位，還要通過注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師（CPA）培訓(xùn)并獲得會(huì)計(jì)師執(zhí)照。至于審計(jì)師，雇主通常更喜歡研究生學(xué)位，在某些情況下還需要某個(gè)專業(yè)領(lǐng)域的審計(jì)證書。

5. 護(hù)士

與醫(yī)師助理類似，任何經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下都需要護(hù)士。護(hù)士需要兩年或四年的護(hù)理學(xué)位，通過考試后獲得州政府頒發(fā)的執(zhí)照。研究表明，隨著人口逐漸老齡化，不管怎樣對(duì)護(hù)士的需求都可能保持高位。

6. 公用事業(yè)員工

研究指出：“在每一個(gè)基本的現(xiàn)代便利設(shè)施背后，都有人在努力工作并維護(hù)運(yùn)行。”從道路養(yǎng)護(hù)到垃圾運(yùn)輸，再到確保路燈正常照明，皆是如此。大多數(shù)公用事業(yè)公司的員工接受過高中或美國(guó)高中同等學(xué)歷（GED）教育，也要擁有該領(lǐng)域的技術(shù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)和“體力”。

7. 保險(xiǎn)精算師

該研究稱，精算師的工作包括幫助企業(yè)做出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最低的決策，包括收縮甚至關(guān)停哪些業(yè)務(wù)等，因此經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)“精算師可能是最受歡迎的雇員”。這份工作要求至少擁有金融相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的學(xué)士學(xué)位，擁有精算科學(xué)的研究生學(xué)位是“重要的加分項(xiàng)”。

8. 助教

Glassdoor 說，助教和教師一樣“屬于教育范疇，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間可以獲得安全的空間”。助教至少需要副學(xué)士學(xué)位，還需要其他從業(yè)許可和證書，各州要求各有不同。

9. 護(hù)士助理

要獲得護(hù)士護(hù)理資格，需要在社區(qū)大學(xué)或職業(yè)學(xué)校完成培訓(xùn)項(xiàng)目后取得護(hù)理證書。與其他大多數(shù)領(lǐng)域相比，幾乎所有獲得醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生資格的工作都更能抵御經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的影響，而且護(hù)士助理可以在各種環(huán)境中工作，比如醫(yī)院、療養(yǎng)院和家庭護(hù)理。因此如果需要，找一份新工作相對(duì)容易。

10. 殯儀員

當(dāng)然，這份工作并不適合所有人。要求獲得兩年制殯葬學(xué)學(xué)位，然后是州執(zhí)照考試。研究稱，“經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退并不能阻止人們死亡”。“生活中能夠預(yù)測(cè)的事情很少，唯有死亡是每個(gè)人永恒的歸宿。”比起來經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣真沒什么大不了。 （財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Since one drawback of capitalism is that it’s cyclical, the question isn’t whether or not an economic downturn is coming —it’s when. At the moment, unemployment is low and consumers are spending. Both are strong signs that the next recession may be milder than the one that kicked off in 2008, lasted about 18 months, and tossed 2.6 million American workers out of their jobs.

While there’s unfortunately no such animal as a 100% recession-proof job, a few fields and functions were relatively safe even in 2008, and they’re likely to stay like that next time around, too.

“Historically, there are industries and occupations that have been less correlated to business-cycle fluctuations than others,” says Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at career site Glassdoor. “In the past, jobs in health care, education, and utilities have not suffered as many job losses during a down cycle.” Also somewhat shielded from what Chamberlain calls “the slings and arrows of economic variation” are union jobs and positions in government.

Glassdoor recently took a deep dive into its database to find out which jobs are most likely to weather the next recession relatively unscathed. Alas, these gigs aren’t easy to get, since specialized training and licensing is usually required.

The researchers came up with a list of ten, in no particular order, and what gives them a good chance of outlasting a downturn:

1. Teacher

Public-school teachers are often union members, which makes their positions harder to cut. Beyond that, no matter what the economy gets up to, the report points out, “children still need to go to school.”

2. Physician assistant

This is a tough field to enter. You need a bachelor’s degree plus two more years of schooling that Glassdoor describes as “comparable to an abbreviated medical school,” often followed by hands-on training similar to a medical residency, and then a license from your state. But, even in a troubled economy, people still need medical care. What’s more, the study notes, “working as a physician assistant can offer flexibility in location, making it easier to switch practices if necessary.”

3. Professor

You usually need a doctorate, along with teaching and research experience. But tenure —a status that is often long and tricky to achieve— is like “hitting the job security jackpot,” the study says, adding that because it’s practically synonymous with lifetime employment, tenure is “one of the most enviable achievements in academia.”

4. Accountant or auditor

Regardless of the economic climate, accountants will always be needed, especially during tax season. Auditors are perhaps even safer, since audits are required by law for any publicly traded company, recession or not. Both roles call for a bachelor’s degree in accounting, finance, or business, followed by Certified Public Accounting (CPA) training and licensure for accountants. For auditors, employers usually prefer a graduate degree and, in some cases, a certification for auditing in a specialized area.

5. Nurse

Similar to physician assistants, nurses are needed in any economic weather, with either a two -year or four-year nursing degree and a license from the state after passing an exam. Particularly as the population ages, the study says, demand for nurses is likely to remain high no matter what.

6. Utility worker

“Behind every basic modern convenience is someone working behind the scenes to make it happen and keep it running,” the study notes —from maintaining roads to hauling trash to making sure the lights stay on. Most utility employees have a high school (or GED) education, plus technical experience in the field, and “physical stamina.”

7. Actuary

Because their job involves helping businesses to make decisions that minimize risk, including which areas of a company to cut back or shut down altogether, “actuaries can be some of the most attractive people to employ” during a downturn, the study says. The job calls for at least a bachelor’s degree in a finance-related field, with a graduate degree in actuarial science “a significant plus.”

8. Teacher’s aide

Like teachers, aides “fall under the umbrella of education, which can earn them a safe space during a recession,” Glassdoor says. Teacher’s aides need at least an associate’s degree, with additional licensing and certifications that vary by state.

9. Nurses’ aides

To qualify, you’d need a certificate in nursing, after completing a program at a community college or vocational school. Not only is almost any credentialed job in healthcare more recession-proof than most other fields, but nurses’ aides can work in a variety of different settings —such as hospitals, nursing homes, and home care— so that finding a new job, if need be, is relatively easy.

10. Funeral director

Granted, this one is not for everybody. The role calls for a two-year degree in funeral studies, followed by state licensing exams. But “recessions don’t stop people from dying,” says the study. “There are very few things you can predict in life, but death is the one constant everyone can count on.” Talk about being recession-proof.