12月1日上午，首輪資本公司發布了對700多位初創公司創始人的年度調查，調查對象是很復雜、甚至很矛盾的一群人。這不奇怪，因為創業的人或多或少有點不夠理智。調查結果顯示：

近20%的受訪者堅信公司市值明年會達到10億美元，盡管很多公司今年不得不裁員。

受訪者預計如果公司倒閉，最重要的原因不會是執行力差，也不是產品不符合市場需要，更不是燒錢太快，而是后續資金沒到位。然而，只有39%的受訪者在提高公司的盈利能力，另外61%都在拼命推動增長。難怪超半數（51%）受訪者表示公司燒錢率比一年前高。僅有13%的受訪者表示已有盈利。

57%的受訪者認為目前存在泡沫（去年認為有泡沫的占73%）。多數人預計今后幾個月的募資難度將加大，三分之二的受訪者認為投資人將占上風。這種情況下受訪者竟能保持樂觀，僅有15%的受訪者承認公司估值可能沒機會達到10億美元。

還有一些方面能看出他們不夠理智：

受訪者認為，初創公司的性別和種族平等意識平均只比商界整體水平落后14年?？蓪嶋H上，目前有11%的受訪者旗下公司沒有一位女員工，61%的受訪者所在公司董事會成員均為男性。發展到后期階段的初創公司表現最差，董事會沒有女性的可能性比其他初創公司高三倍。

至于性別議題，半數受訪者認為是晉升通道問題。受訪女性都認為這是無意間形成的歧視。（一位女性受訪者原以為科技領域有很多女同胞，也許可以嘗試拓寬自己的人際圈子。）缺少女性榜樣也影響了女性在初創公司的表現。經常被援引的科技業榜樣都是男性——特斯拉和SpaceX等公司創始人伊隆·馬斯克、蘋果之父史蒂夫·喬布斯和Facebook創始人馬克·扎克伯格。 （財富中文網）

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作者：Erin Griffith

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

First Round Capital released its annual survey of more than 700 startup founders this morning. It paints a picture of a complicated, sometimes contradictory crew of people. Which isn’t surprising – you have to be at least a little irrational to start a startup. Case in point:

Nearly 20% are certain their companies will be worth $1 billion, but just as many had to lay off staff this year.

The number one reason those surveyed believe their company could fail is an inability to raise follow-on capital. Not bad execution, not a lack of product-market fit, not burn rate. And yet! Only 39% are optimizing for profitability, versus 61% optimizing for growth. That explains why a majority (51%) said their burn rate is higher than it was a year ago. Only 13% are already profitable.

57% believe we’re in a bubble (down from 73% last year). A majority think it’ll get harder to raise capital in the coming months, and two thirds think investors will have the upper hand going forward. And yet! There’s that pesky optimism, with only 15% admitting their company is not likely to be worth $1 billion or more.

Irrationality can manifest itself in frustrating ways:

On average, respondents think gender and ethnic parity in the startup world is just 14 years away, despite the fact that 11% of them currently run companies with companies with zero women employees and 61% of them have all-male boards. Late stage companies are the worst offenders, with a three times higher likelihood of not having a single woman on their board.

Regarding the gender issue, half of the men surveyed believe it’s a pipeline problem. The women surveyed know it’s an unconscious bias problem. (One womansplain-y thought: There are lots of women in tech; perhaps try expanding your network. For board members, try TheBoardlist.) The lack of female role models hurts, too. The top tech heroes cited are Elon Musk, Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerberg.