我有許多頭銜，但不包括算命先生。我不能預(yù)測(cè)你的未來，因?yàn)檫B你自己也無法知道自己的未來。即便你列出許多職業(yè)選擇，并根據(jù)仔細(xì)挑選的信息進(jìn)行評(píng)估，你依舊無法確定自己的未來在何方。

有一種東西叫做概率。每個(gè)人都無法確定自己的未來，只是程度不同而已。例如，如果你熱愛自己的工作，那么你成就偉業(yè)的概率就更高。如果你考慮更多而不是更少替代方案，你的決定成功的概率便越高。如果你使用高質(zhì)量的信息，你的決定可能會(huì)更明智。

必然性是不存在的，但更高的概率卻是可以實(shí)現(xiàn)的。但人們?cè)敢馊タ紤]必然性，但如果沒有必然性，人們會(huì)更加自在地得過且過，而不是去追求模糊的概率。這樣做雖然可能讓人更舒服，但卻毫無邏輯。這就是你要面臨的選擇：相信邏輯，還是運(yùn)氣？

通用的借口：運(yùn)氣

幸運(yùn)的是，我們會(huì)共同支持一個(gè)通用的借口：運(yùn)氣。運(yùn)氣面前，人人平等。誰沒有在自己的失敗中找出壞運(yùn)氣，或者從其他人的成功中找出好運(yùn)氣？我們知道自己的成就都是努力和才能的結(jié)果，而其他人的成功則純粹靠的是運(yùn)氣，這種對(duì)比是荒謬的。

我們對(duì)運(yùn)氣的依賴無處不在。所以，彩票才會(huì)盛行。投資者和他們的顧問將股票市場(chǎng)視為豪賭，施展出各種秘密的手段，與輪盤賭局里的其他人博弈。求職者隨機(jī)發(fā)出數(shù)百封簡(jiǎn)歷，希望能找到一家最適合自己的公司。

運(yùn)氣甚至侵入了我們的語言。從考試到求職面試再到投資，我們幾乎在每一個(gè)場(chǎng)合都會(huì)祝福彼此好運(yùn)。你或許認(rèn)為不斷祝福好運(yùn)，只不過是一種社會(huì)習(xí)俗而已。但習(xí)俗所反映出的是一種普遍的社會(huì)理念。

以愛情為例。有許多單身族已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好開始一段戀愛關(guān)系甚至步入婚姻殿堂，但他們卻把大量時(shí)間用于期待愛情來臨，嫉妒那些成雙入對(duì)的好朋友們的“運(yùn)氣”。當(dāng)有朋友建議他們登陸在線約會(huì)網(wǎng)站時(shí)，他們會(huì)報(bào)以嘲笑。他們說：“愛情可不是這樣的。”然后，他們會(huì)繼續(xù)回憶歷史上的愛情故事是如何發(fā)生的。他們一邊忙著自己的生活——上班，回家，一邊等待著運(yùn)氣來臨，亦或等到的是一道晴天霹靂。這是一種極其消極的態(tài)度！

相比之下，有的人想要偉大的愛情，并且知道如何追求愛情。她還知道，愛情不能靠等。所以，她會(huì)盡可能出現(xiàn)在各種場(chǎng)合，提高遇到愛人的概率。如果她對(duì)摩托車失去了興趣，但喜歡戶外運(yùn)動(dòng)，她可能會(huì)加入一個(gè)遠(yuǎn)足團(tuán)隊(duì)，而不是把時(shí)間用于泡吧。她會(huì)進(jìn)行認(rèn)真的思考，并且會(huì)主動(dòng)出擊。而且，這種人更有可能追求自己喜愛的工作。她對(duì)自己所處的時(shí)代有著清醒的認(rèn)識(shí)，她不會(huì)只是期待著好工作能自動(dòng)來到自己面前；她清楚好工作要靠自己去努力追求。她過上幸福生活的概率，遠(yuǎn)高于其他人。

又一個(gè)借口：時(shí)間的殘酷

在我聽到的所有借口中，時(shí)間有限最接近真正的理由。有人告訴我，他沒有時(shí)間考慮替代選項(xiàng)或收集信息，這個(gè)理由在那一刻通常是成立的，因?yàn)樗麄兇_實(shí)沒有時(shí)間。但他們過去曾經(jīng)有時(shí)間，或者未來能夠找出時(shí)間。所以，時(shí)間有限只能作為當(dāng)下的理由，但卻是之前和未來的借口。順便說一句，我們每個(gè)人都在努力爭(zhēng)取時(shí)間。

有的人把時(shí)間看成是沙漏里流動(dòng)的沙子。年輕人聳聳肩說：“對(duì)我來說已經(jīng)太晚了。”他是個(gè)商人，但他討厭自己的工作，希望寫電影或電視劇本。但要在編劇行業(yè)站穩(wěn)腳跟，他得從沒有薪水的實(shí)習(xí)生開始做起——如果他只有22歲，這是可以接受的，但他33歲了，妻子還一直渴望買一套房子，有個(gè)自己的家，因此這樣的選擇便有些難以接受。

對(duì)于他33歲這個(gè)事實(shí)，上面是一種看待方式。但我們不妨換個(gè)角度……他參加工作只有10年時(shí)間。未來還將繼續(xù)工作40年。或許他目前在財(cái)力上無法承擔(dān)免費(fèi)工作，但這并不意味著他就要放棄，在比他現(xiàn)在的年齡還要長的歲月里，每天大部分時(shí)間都在痛苦中度過。他的年齡只是意味著，他需要用更有創(chuàng)造性地方式，追隨自己的激情。他可以不走其他編劇走過的路，或許他應(yīng)該另辟蹊徑，嘗試一條與家庭情況相符的道路。太晚了嗎？拜托！

想想哈蘭德?桑德斯吧。1955年，65歲的桑德斯在肯塔基州科爾賓擁有一家成功的餐廳。但一條洲際高速公路改變了交通路線，也讓餐廳失去顧客。就這樣，他失去了生計(jì)。但他還有一份神秘的炸雞配方，于是他開始挨家挨戶推銷自己的炸雞。后來便有了肯德基。桑德斯上校在去世之前，作為肯德基的創(chuàng)始人，成功經(jīng)營了近30年。

有時(shí)候，最有效的激勵(lì)，來自于那些年紀(jì)更大但卻不害怕揭穿借口的人。

62歲的希瑟?E曾寫信告訴我說，她已經(jīng)決定在間隔了兩年之后，重新思考自己的博士論文。“我曾經(jīng)經(jīng)歷過各種‘但是’和‘要是怎樣就好了’的階段——我已做好準(zhǔn)備，我不會(huì)去理會(huì)那些阻止我的東西，我將勇往直前，追求偉大的事業(yè)——當(dāng)然，我已經(jīng)62歲了，或許我的時(shí)間比其他人更少，但這已經(jīng)不重要了。”確實(shí)不重要！

尋找借口的文化

人類的天性就是趨向于尋找借口，這已經(jīng)夠糟糕了，但在我們今天的社會(huì)，借口已經(jīng)幾乎變成了常態(tài)。逃避責(zé)任的情況早已司空見慣。政客們會(huì)解讀民意調(diào)查結(jié)果，來確定應(yīng)該支持哪項(xiàng)政策。如果政策失敗，那并不是他們的責(zé)任——他們只是遵從了公眾的意愿。如果一項(xiàng)法律未能通過，錯(cuò)在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。公眾沒有投票，借口是他們的投票無關(guān)緊要。政治流程幾乎失效，但總有其他人可以指責(zé)，或者根本無人需要承擔(dān)責(zé)任。

公司陷入困境，高管卻可以領(lǐng)獎(jiǎng)金。但誰能指責(zé)他們呢，因?yàn)槭鞘袌?chǎng)形勢(shì)“對(duì)他們不利”或者“突然出現(xiàn)了”一種新技術(shù)。但誰又應(yīng)該負(fù)責(zé)預(yù)測(cè)市場(chǎng)或技術(shù)的變化呢？除了底層員工，有誰被辭退了？

我們生活在一個(gè)找替罪羊的時(shí)代。現(xiàn)在，人人都是受害者——結(jié)果，我們很難找到壓迫者。所以，肆無忌憚地尋找借口，并不讓人感到意外。當(dāng)今社會(huì)，人人都面臨巨大的壓力和挑戰(zhàn)，生活每一個(gè)方面的成功都來之不易。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力，給我們的就業(yè)和安全感增加了不確定性。投資回報(bào)沒有保證。技術(shù)可能在幾年內(nèi)讓整個(gè)行業(yè)被淘汰。社會(huì)變革的速度如此之快，以至于整個(gè)社會(huì)都變得動(dòng)蕩不安。我們可能經(jīng)常看到失敗。因此，我們也會(huì)很容易面對(duì)尋找借口的誘惑。

如果我們將成功看作是不確定的，那么尋找借口的文化便會(huì)產(chǎn)生吸引力。借口就像是一張神奇的“自由脫獄卡”。如果你允許其他人尋找借口，對(duì)方也會(huì)投桃報(bào)李。所以，最好不要過于咄咄逼人地批評(píng)你的同事，因?yàn)樗麄円矔?huì)給你同樣的待遇。我們每個(gè)人都有不足，大家都是一樣的，因此我們心安理得。

有時(shí)候，你最大的障礙便是你自己。沒有任何借口——你才是問題所在。現(xiàn)在，不要讓自己成為自己的絆腳石，行動(dòng)起來：

你通常會(huì)用什么借口？或者，你是否聲稱自己從未用過借口？

在思考自己的職業(yè)時(shí)，運(yùn)氣的想法扮演著怎樣的角色？

哪些個(gè)性是你最大的障礙，你打算如何克服它們？（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文摘自拉里?史密斯的《不必恐懼，無需接口：如何成就偉業(yè)》（No Fears, No Excuses: What You Need to Do to Have a Great Career）一書。版權(quán)所有? 2016拉里?史密斯。經(jīng)霍頓?米夫林?哈考特出版公司（Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company）允許提前發(fā)表。版權(quán)所有。

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

I wear many hats, but that of fortune-teller is not one of them. I do not know your future, just as you don’t know your future. Even if you generated many career alternatives and evaluated them with carefully considered information, you still couldn’t know for sure what the future holds for you.

There is a little thing called probability. Not knowing the future is a matter of degree. For instance, it is far more probable that you will have a great career if you love your work. Your decisions have a higher probability of success if you consider more?—?rather than fewer?—?alternatives. Decisions are more likely to be wise if you are using quality information.

There is no certainty, of course, but there is greater probability. But people like to think about certainty, and without certainty, it’s more comfortable for them to wing it than to pursue the murky world of probability. That may be more comfortable, but it is highly illogical. And that is the choice ahead of you: do you trust logic . . . or luck?

The Universal Excuse: Luck

Fortunately, we have a universal excuse around which we can all rally: Luck. Luck is the great leveler. Who has not seen bad luck in their own failures and good luck in the successes of others? By perverse contrast, we know our achievements are the result of effort and talent, while those of others are just dumb luck.

Our reliance on luck is everywhere. Lotteries thrive. Investors and their advisors treat the stock markets like great casinos, playing secret strategies that rival those at the roulette tables. Jobseekers send out hundreds of résumés randomly, hoping that one of them will be a perfect fit.

Luck has even invaded our language. We continue to wish each other good luck for every possible occasion, from exams to job interviews to investments. Perhaps you might conclude that this incessant wishing of good luck is no more than a social convention. But conventions reflect a widespread societal belief.

Consider the parallel to romance. There are those singles ready for a relationship or even marriage, but spend much of their time hoping for it and envying the “l(fā)uck” of their coupled friends. When friends suggest they go to an online dating site, they laugh. “That’s just not how love is done,” they say, and then they wax on about how romances used to happen. They go about their lives?—?going to work, going home?—?waiting for lightning or luck to strike. How utterly disempowering!

Compare this portrait to the woman who wants great love and knows it. She also knows she mustn’t wait for it to come to her. So she puts herself in as many situations as possible that increase her probability of meeting someone she likes. If she is turned off by motorcycles but loves the outdoors, she is likely to join a hiking group rather than spend her time in dive bars. She’s thoughtful about it, and she’s proactive about it. And she’s the one who is likely to pursue a job she loves, by the way. She’s aware of the times she lives in, she doesn’t just hope for a great job to come to her; she recognizes that it’s up to her to find it. And the odds of her having a life that makes her happy are much, much greater than are the odds of her cohort.

The Tyranny of Time

Of all the excuses I hear, the constraint of time is closest to a true reason. When I am told that someone doesn’t have the time to consider alternatives or gather information, it is often true that, at that moment, they don’t actually have the time. Of course, they had time in the past, or they will find it in the longer term. This makes the time constraint an immediate reason and an earlier and future excuse. And by the way, we all struggle for time all the time.

And then there’s time as considered through an hourglass. “It’s too late for me,” shrugs the young man. He’s a businessman who hates his job and would much rather be writing screenplays or scripts for television. To get a foothold in that field, he would have had to start as an unpaid intern?—?something that sounds OK at 22, but not at 33, with a wife who is eager to buy a house and start a family.

Okay, that’s one way to look at the fact that he’s 33. But let’s see . . . he’s been in the workforce for barely 10 years. He will be in the workforce for another 40 years. Perhaps he can’t financially commit to working for free, but that doesn’t mean he needs to give up and spend more years than he has so far been alive being miserable for the majority of the hours of his day. It just means he needs to follow his passion more creatively. Instead of becoming a screenwriter who follows the path others have taken, perhaps he should try in an original way that still meets his family’s situation. Too late? Please!

Consider Harland Sanders. In 1955, he was 65 years old and the proprietor of a successful restaurant in Corbin, Kentucky. Then an interstate highway came along that diverted traffic?—?and his customers?—?away. Just like that, he lost his livelihood. But he still had one killer secret recipe for fried chicken, and he went practically door-to-door peddling it. And so began Kentucky Fried Chicken. Colonel Sanders enjoyed nearly 30 years of success as its originator before he died.

Sometimes the most effective inspiration comes from those who are older and not afraid to call an excuse out for what it is.

Heather E. was 62 when she wrote me that she had decided to revisit her doctoral dissertation after a hiatus of two years. “I have certainly been through all the ‘but’ stages and the ‘if only’ stages—?I am so ready not to look at what stops me and only to go ahead and have a great career?—?of course, I am 62, so it may be shorter than others’, but perhaps no less important.” No less important, indeed.

Our Culture of Excuses

It is bad enough that our human nature tempts us into excuses, but we now live in a society where excuses are close to the norm. The evasion of all responsibility is commonplace. Politicians read the polls to discover what policy to support. If it fails, it’s not their responsibility?—?they were just following the public’s guidance. If they can’t get a law passed, it’s their opponents’ fault. The public fails to vote, using the excuse that their votes don’t matter. The political process barely functions, but somebody else is always to blame or there is no one to blame.

Executives take bonuses while their companies crash. But who can blame them, because the market “turned against them” or a new technology “appeared out of nowhere.” But whose job was it to foresee changes in the marketplace or in technology? And who gets fired, besides low-level employees?

We live in the Age of Victimization. We are all victims now–so many victims now, it’s hard to find the oppressors. And so this gluttony of excuses is not surprising. In today’s stressful and highly challenging world, success in every aspect of life is hard-won. The competitive pressures of the global economy add uncertainty to our employment and sense of security. Investment returns are not assured. Technology can make an entire industry obsolete in the span of a few years. The pace of social change is so rapid as to be destabilizing. It is easy to see defeat at every turn. Thus, it is equally easy to see the lure of the excuse.

If many of us see success as uncertain, then a culture of excuses is appealing. It is like a magical get-out-of-jail-free card. If you enable others to make excuses, you enable yourself as well. So better not criticize your colleagues too aggressively, and they will surely offer the same accommodation to you. We can all be inadequate together, comfortable that we are all alike.

Sometimes the obstacle standing in your way is you. No excuses–just you. Now get out of your own way, and get to work:

What excuses do you routinely rely on? Or do you claim you have never used an excuse?

What role does the notion of luck play in your thinking about career?

What personal characteristics most stand in your way, and how do you intend to overcome them?

Excerpted from No Fears, No Excuses: What You Need to Do to Have a Great Career by Larry Smith. Copyright ? 2016 Larry Smith. Reprinted by permission of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. All rights reserved.