????電視上的魔術師，其實都是誤導藝術方面的大師。我們從他們身上能夠學到什么？

????撰寫《觀察的力量》這本書時，我發現我們之所以無法觀察到有用的信息，并非因為我們處在真空環境中，而是受到周圍那些不希望我們注意到某些特定信息的人的慫恿。這些人包括談判對手、廣告商、營銷商和政客。而最擅長誤導我們注意力的，自然是魔術師。

????去年一月份，我在哈佛大學教授關于注意力集中的課程，課程為期一周。我邀請了鄺大衛，一位很有才華的年輕魔術師表演他的魔術，然后我讓全班同學思考，他為什么能如此成功地阻止我們覺察到他的秘密。從魔術師身上，我們可以看到其他人如何通過注意力分散等技能，阻止我們發現他們的花招。

????你提到了1892年出版的阿瑟?柯南道爾小說《銀色馬》（Silver Blaze）。夏洛克?福爾摩斯因為注意到一種沒有發生的情況——狗沒有叫，而破解了一宗謀殺案。我們如何找到“無聲的證據”？我們為什么應該分析未發生的事情？

????我曾經是一位不錯的橋牌選手，但我后來放棄了橋牌，選擇追求我的學術事業。好的橋牌選手會根據其他選手的出牌進行推理。但更優秀的橋牌選手卻會根據其他選手沒出的牌進行推理。同樣，對于那些預計會發生但并未發生的事情，公司高管和外交官都應該時刻保持警惕。我們應該考慮為什么這些事情沒有發生，并從中收集深刻的見解。

????許多時候，出問題的是環境而不是人。請詳述一下，我們如何利用選擇架構和源自行為科學的其他見解，來設計組織結構，從而讓員工將注意力放在更有價值的地方？

????我們的組織結構、產業結構和政府推出的激勵措施，通常并不鼓勵我們仔細觀察。以審計職業為例。之所以存在審計這個職業，是因為它承諾保持獨立性。如果沒有獨立性，外部審計師就成了公司內部審計師的累贅，也就失去了存在的理由。我的同事曾與我合作寫過一篇文章，其中提到，我們的社會縱容審計師事務所減少保持獨立性的傾向，進而減少了他們在客戶的財務賬簿中發現問題的可能性。為什么？因為審計師事務所希望被二次雇傭。他們希望出售咨詢服務。而且，審計師通常希望能在客戶公司內部找到一份工作。種種因素綜合在一起，就很容易大幅減少審計師從客戶賬簿中發現嚴重問題的可能性。

????在書的末尾，你寫到與曼徹斯特一位出租車司機的偶遇，令你深受啟發。跟我們講講那次偶遇吧。我們如何通過你的書，成為更好的“觀察者”？

????我自己也不是好的觀察者，這一點經常讓我失望，正因為如此，我才對這次有趣的經歷感到自豪。數年前，我與妻子瑪拉和兩個朋友抵達英國曼徹斯特機場。我們計劃乘出租車到當地火車站，然后乘火車前往曼徹斯特以北200英里的倫敦。我們已經買好了火車票。我們來到出租車站的時候，一群出租車司機正圍坐在一起聊天。他們彼此似乎都很熟悉。領頭的出租車司機告訴我們，鐵路工人正在罷工，他愿意以300英鎊（當時約合600美元）的價格將我們四個人送到倫敦。

????其他人都相信了那位司機的話，并且準備接受他的條件。但我卻有些懷疑。我對瑪拉說：“先不要讓他裝行李。”我跑到機場咨詢臺，詢問是否有鐵路工人罷工。火速趕回出租車站之后，我把瑪拉和兩個朋友拉到一旁，告訴他們沒有罷工：司機在說謊。

????《觀察的力量》就是告訴大家如何發現這樣的暗示：出租車司機們一邊輕聲聊天，一邊看著我們；我所需要的信息就在100英尺之外的機場內；出租車司機的動機（以更高的費用送我們去倫敦）非常強烈。我們經常會遇到這樣的暗示。而關鍵在于行動起來。（財富中文網）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????Magicians, the kind you see on TV, are masters of the art of misdirection. What can we learn from them?

????In working on the Power of Noticing, I noticed that our failure to notice does not occur in a vacuum, but is encouraged by those around us who do not want us to notice certain information. This includes negotiators, advertisers, marketers, and politicians. Of course, the people who are best at misdirecting our attention are magicians.

????So, last January, when I taught an intensive one-week course on noticing at Harvard, I brought in David Kwong, a brilliant young magician, to perform his magic, and then reflected with the class on how he is so effective at keeping us from noticing his secrets. From magicians, we can see how others might prevent us from noticing their tricks through skills like distraction.

????You mention an Arthur Conan Doyle story, Silver Blaze, originally published in 1892. Sherlock Holmes solves a murder case by noticing what didn’t happen—a dog that didn’t bark. How can we spot “silent evidence” and why should we analyze what didn’t happen?

????I used to be a very good tournament bridge player, but I gave up cards to pursue my academic career. Good card players make inferences based on what other players do. Great card players make inferences based on what other players do not do. Similarly, executives and diplomats should always be on the alert for events that were expected, but didn’t occur. We can glean insights by thinking about why those actions never occurred.

????Many times the problem is the environment and not the individual. Elaborate on how we can design organizations using choice architecture and other insight from behavioral science to improve what employees will pay attention to.

????So often, our organizations, our industry structure, and the incentives created by government do not encourage us to notice. Consider the auditing profession. The profession exists because it promises independence. Without independence, outside auditors would become redundant with a company’s inside auditors and have no reason to exist. Yet my colleagues and I have documented that our society allowed auditing firms to develop in a manner that decreased their propensity to be independent, and therefore lessened their likelihood of noticing problems in the financial books of their clients. Why? Because auditing firms want to be rehired. They want to sell their consulting services. And, often, auditors are looking for jobs with client firms. When you add it up, we have created conditions that dramatically reduce the likelihood of auditors noticing when their clients’ books have serious problems.

????Near the end of the book you write about a savvy encounter you had with a taxi driver in Manchester. Tell us about this encounter and how we can use your book to become better “noticers.”

????I’ve often been disappointed by my own failure to notice, which is why I’m proud of this anecdote. A number of years ago, I arrived at England’s Manchester airport with Marla, my spouse, and two of our friends. We were planning to take a taxi to the local train station, and then the train to London, which is about 200 miles north of Manchester. We already had our train tickets. As we approached the taxi stand, a group of drivers are sitting around chatting. They appeared to know each other quite well. The driver of the lead taxi informed us that the trains were on strike, but that he was willing to take all four of us to London for 300 pounds (about $600 at that time).

????My companions believed what the driver told us and were ready to accept the offer. I was more suspicious. I said to Marla, “Don’t let him load the luggage yet.” I ran into the airport, up to the information booth, and quickly asked whether there was a train strike. Dashing back to the taxi stand, I pulled Marla and our friends aside with the news that there was no strike: the driver’s claim was a scam.

????The Power of Noticing is about seeing such hints: The drivers talking quietly to each other while watching us. The fact that the information I needed was only 100 feet away, inside the airport. And the fact that the taxi driver’s incentives—to get an expensive fare to London—was quite strong. We often have such hints. The key is to also act on them.