????能源，材料，工業(yè)和公用事業(yè)公司具有最高的直接碳排放強(qiáng)度。因此，碳排放計(jì)劃施加給這些企業(yè)的監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也是最大的。

????但是，由于建筑物的生命周期和長(zhǎng)期投資的性質(zhì)，房地產(chǎn)和金融服務(wù)行業(yè)亦面臨氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。事實(shí)上，所有行業(yè)都或多或少地受到氣候和碳風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。

????針對(duì)碳風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所做的傳統(tǒng)財(cái)務(wù)分析往往會(huì)忽略“影子負(fù)債”——它是整個(gè)價(jià)值鏈面臨的間接風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有可能產(chǎn)生的碳價(jià)格負(fù)債所導(dǎo)致的。

????我們很難分析這種影子負(fù)債，因?yàn)橄嚓P(guān)數(shù)據(jù)非常零散，估值方法也不盡相同。世界各地不一致的披露要求同樣無助于這種分析。

????美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(SEC)要求企業(yè)在提交年度報(bào)告時(shí)披露實(shí)質(zhì)性的氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。今年4月份，歐洲議會(huì)批準(zhǔn)一項(xiàng)新規(guī)則，要求大型上市公司在它們提交給投資者的報(bào)告中發(fā)布環(huán)境和社會(huì)數(shù)據(jù)。但僅憑這些措施，還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不足以形成一個(gè)全面且可協(xié)調(diào)，針對(duì)公司面臨的全部碳和氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的披露機(jī)制。

????與此同時(shí)，投資者并沒有無動(dòng)于衷。他們自己已經(jīng)開始分析間接的碳價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其對(duì)企業(yè)投資回報(bào)率和信貸質(zhì)量的影響。

????服務(wù)于投資者的獨(dú)立分析師也正在從事這類分析。比如，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾公司正在估算盈利能力，資產(chǎn)及負(fù)債估值和現(xiàn)金流遭受的直接和間接影響，以評(píng)估碳價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)公司信譽(yù)的影響。像碳信息披露項(xiàng)目(Carbon Disclosure Project)這類國(guó)際組織正在調(diào)查公司面臨的環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并給予它們相應(yīng)的評(píng)分。

????一些大公司正在作出回應(yīng)。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)最近成為第一家詳盡發(fā)布其擱淺資產(chǎn)（即如果調(diào)控收緊，該公司就不能開采的資產(chǎn)儲(chǔ)量）氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息的石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)商。但大多數(shù)企業(yè)尚未接受氣候和碳風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)企業(yè)績(jī)效和價(jià)值的影響將日益加大這個(gè)事實(shí)。

????企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者應(yīng)該認(rèn)識(shí)到，氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和碳負(fù)債是切實(shí)存在的，而且注定會(huì)繼續(xù)增大。如果他們不能有效地評(píng)估和管理這些短期和長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債，公司信譽(yù)或?qū)⒃馐苤貏?chuàng)，融資成本就將上升。

????資本市場(chǎng)的參與者通常只關(guān)注短期圖景。但環(huán)境變化是一個(gè)不容忽視的長(zhǎng)期問題。隨著時(shí)間的推移，環(huán)境變化在決定財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)方面的作用將越來越大。

????本文作者Neeraj Sahai是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾評(píng)級(jí)服務(wù)公司總裁。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：葉寒

????Energy, materials, industrial and utility companies have the highest direct carbon intensity and therefore the largest regulatory exposure to emissions compliance schemes.

????But the property and financial services sectors are also exposed to climate risk due to the life cycle of buildings and the nature of their long-term investments. All sectors, in fact, are affected in varying degrees, to climate and carbon risks.

????Conventional financial analysis of carbon risk overlooks the “shadow liability” caused by potential carbon price liabilities from indirect exposures across the value chain.

????This shadow liability is hard to analyze, as data is patchy and valuation methods vary. Inconsistent disclosure requirements around the world do not help either.

????In the U.S., the SEC requires firms that file annual reports to communicate material climate change risks. In April, the European Parliament approved new rules that will require large listed firms to publish environment and social data in their reporting to investors. But this falls far short of a comprehensive and coordinated disclosure regime for companies’ overall exposure to carbon and climate risk.

????Investors, meanwhile, are not standing still. They are starting to conduct their own analysis of indirect carbon price risk and its impact on corporate investment returns and credit quality.

????Independent analysts who serve them are doing the same. S&P, for instance, is seeking to assess the effects of carbon price risk on a company’s creditworthiness by considering the direct and indirect impact of profitability, asset and liability valuation, and cash flow. Organizations like the international Carbon Disclosure Project are surveying companies about their environmental exposures and scoring them accordingly.

????Some large companies are responding. Exxon Mobil recently became the first oil and gas producer to publish details of its climate risk exposure from stranded assets (reserves that it could not exploit if regulation is tightened). But most businesses are yet to accept that climate and carbon risks are ever more material to corporate performance and value.

????Business leaders should acknowledge that climate risk and carbon liabilities are here to stay and, in all probability, set to grow. If they cannot demonstrate effective assessment and management of these short-term and long-term liabilities, their creditworthiness may suffer and their financing costs will rise.

????Capital markets participants traditionally have short term horizons. But environmental change is a long-term issue that they cannot ignore. Over time, it will play an increasing role in determining both financial risk and return.

????Neeraj Sahai is president of Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.