????這幾天好像所有人都在對(duì)資本主義品頭論足。

????上周，法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托馬斯?皮凱蒂赴紐約和華盛頓宣傳自己的大部頭新作《21世紀(jì)的資本主義》（Capital in the Twenty First Century）。這本書通過(guò)詳細(xì)的分析證明，在資本主義社會(huì)，貧富差距以及財(cái)富集中在少數(shù)人手里是一種常態(tài)，而不是個(gè)別現(xiàn)象。

????政治顧問(wèn)和社會(huì)理論學(xué)家杰里米?里夫金最近出版的作品《零邊際成本社會(huì)》（The Zero Marginal Cost Society）探討的也是類似問(wèn)題，只是這本書不是那么冷靜，有時(shí)甚至過(guò)于樂(lè)觀。里夫金在書中強(qiáng)調(diào)，資本主義似乎正在斷送自己的前程。

????里夫金指出，私營(yíng)市場(chǎng)追逐效率和生產(chǎn)率，導(dǎo)致我們?cè)桨l(fā)靠近這樣一種態(tài)勢(shì)，那就是幾乎所有產(chǎn)品的邊際成本都會(huì)一步步地接近于零。

????里夫金在書中做了這樣的設(shè)想：工廠完全由機(jī)器人負(fù)責(zé)運(yùn)營(yíng)，使用風(fēng)能或太陽(yáng)能這樣的可再生能源；制造出來(lái)的產(chǎn)品由無(wú)人車輛運(yùn)送，這些車輛同樣使用可再生能源。更有甚者，這些產(chǎn)品可能都不需要運(yùn)輸——借助3D打印機(jī)，人們?cè)诩依锘蛘邘讉€(gè)街區(qū)之外就能進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)。

????說(shuō)到我們的家，在里夫金的新世界里，人們用來(lái)修建住宅的很可能是3D打印機(jī)就地取材所制造的材料，而且修建時(shí)間之短前所未有，從而節(jié)省了大量的建材運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用。里夫金提到，麻省理工（MIT）的一座實(shí)驗(yàn)室正在開(kāi)發(fā)“不用人力”就能在一天內(nèi)建起房屋構(gòu)架的技術(shù)。他說(shuō)，同樣的構(gòu)架“可能需要整整一支建筑隊(duì)伍工作一個(gè)月。”

????大家應(yīng)該已經(jīng)想到，這樣的住宅將越來(lái)越多地使用清潔的可再生能源，其中安裝的傳感器數(shù)量之多將超過(guò)大家的想象；所有數(shù)據(jù)都將匯集到智能電網(wǎng)中，這樣住宅就能知道人們?cè)谑裁磿r(shí)候需要多少電力，以及哪些東西需要維修。

????構(gòu)建這樣一個(gè)高科技烏托邦的途徑就是把里夫金所說(shuō)的通信互聯(lián)網(wǎng)（怎樣共享信息）、能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)（怎樣共享能源需求信息以及怎樣分配能源）和物流互聯(lián)網(wǎng)（怎樣制造并運(yùn)送產(chǎn)品）融合起來(lái)，這些網(wǎng)絡(luò)就是人們所說(shuō)的物聯(lián)網(wǎng)。

????的確，打造這樣一個(gè)系統(tǒng)的初始成本可能會(huì)非常高。但里夫金認(rèn)為，建成并投入運(yùn)行后，這個(gè)系統(tǒng)所帶來(lái)的益處將從根本上改變我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序。他寫道：“物聯(lián)網(wǎng)已經(jīng)讓生產(chǎn)率達(dá)到了以接近于零的邊際成本提供諸多產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的水平，這些產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)實(shí)際上已經(jīng)處于免費(fèi)狀態(tài)。由此產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果是，公司利潤(rùn)開(kāi)始枯竭，產(chǎn)權(quán)開(kāi)始弱化，富裕經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始慢慢取代以稀有性為基礎(chǔ)的經(jīng)濟(jì)。”

????但實(shí)際情況是，美國(guó)公司的利潤(rùn)正在上升，無(wú)論用絕對(duì)水平，還是用占國(guó)民收入的比例來(lái)衡量都是如此。當(dāng)然，在科技的顛覆之下，有些行業(yè)正在苦苦掙扎（比如幾乎整個(gè)媒體行業(yè)）。同時(shí)，埃克森（Exxon）和雪佛龍（Chevron）等大型能源企業(yè)在尋找和開(kāi)發(fā)新化石燃料資源方面遇到的高成本阻力讓人望而卻步。但總的來(lái)說(shuō)，企業(yè)都在賺錢，而且賺的相當(dāng)多。

????資本主義和里夫金的世界有什么契合點(diǎn)呢？他的答案是：“在即將到來(lái)的時(shí)代，隨著新生代越來(lái)越認(rèn)同協(xié)作主義（Collaboratism），資本主義和社會(huì)主義都將失去主導(dǎo)社會(huì)的能力。”

????為了闡釋我們?cè)鯓硬拍苓~向這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)新篇章，《零邊際成本社會(huì)》帶著讀者在歷史中暢游了一番，從歐洲的封建社會(huì)到亞當(dāng)?斯密和卡爾?馬克思，再到蒸汽、鋼鐵和鐵路的興起，然后是石油時(shí)代。里夫金指出，過(guò)去幾百年中，建立工業(yè)秩序的成本如此之高，以至于我們需要通用電氣（General Electric）、福特汽車（Ford）和美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司（AT&T）這樣的大型上市公司。實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)電氣化，用電話和鐵路把人們聯(lián)系在一起，以及讓普通民眾用上汽車，這些都是規(guī)模極為宏大的項(xiàng)目。過(guò)去，集權(quán)型企業(yè)可以勝任這項(xiàng)任務(wù)。但里夫金認(rèn)為，今天，這些公司正在變得不那么舉足輕重。

????對(duì)里夫金來(lái)說(shuō)，我們正在進(jìn)入社會(huì)要素的時(shí)代；就消費(fèi)者而言，和只是獲得物品相比，物品所有權(quán)已經(jīng)不再處于那么核心的位置。他指出，汽車共享網(wǎng)站Zipcar、租房網(wǎng)站Airbnb和Courchsurfing.com以及兒童玩具交換網(wǎng)站Baby Plays和Spark Box Toys都是這方面的先驅(qū)。把這樣的行為延伸到其他經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域后，比如點(diǎn)對(duì)點(diǎn)的可再生能源共享以及通過(guò)眾籌方式獲得個(gè)人和企業(yè)貸款，所有公司的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)銷量可能很快就會(huì)大幅下降，而他們的客戶甚至?xí)p少得更厲害。衡量這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)是否成功也許不能再用GDP和利潤(rùn)這樣的指標(biāo)。

????Capitalism seems to be getting it from all sides these days.

????French economist Thomas Piketty made the rounds in New York and Washington, D.C. last week to promote his new, widely praised tome, Capital in the Twenty First Century, an exhaustive analysis that argues that inequality and the concentration of wealth among the few are the norm, rather than the exception, within capitalist societies.

????In a less sobering -- at times, overoptimistic -- side of a similar coin, political consultant and social theorist Jeremy Rifkin's recently published The Zero Marginal Cost Society highlights a capitalism that seems to be running itself out of business.

????Rifkin argues that the private market's drive for efficiency and productivity has brought us ever closer to a world in which the marginal cost to produce just about everything will inch closer and closer to zero.

????Picture factories run entirely by robots, powered by renewable energy sources like wind and the sun, creating products delivered by driverless vehicles, also run on renewable energy. Maybe these products won't even need to make any kind of journey at all. Perhaps they can simply be produced at your home or a few blocks away with the help of a 3-D printer.

????Speaking of your home, in Rifkin's new world, your next one may very well be built by locally generated, 3-D-printed materials, in record time, removing the considerable expense of transporting construction goods. Rifkin cites an MIT lab that is working to develop a house frame in a single day "with virtually no human labor." An equivalent frame, Rifkin says, "would take an entire construction crew a month to put up."

????That home will be powered by -- you guessed it -- increasingly cheap renewable energy, and it will be stocked with more sensors than you can imagine, all feeding data into a smart grid, so your house knows how much energy you need and when, and what needs to be repaired.

????This is a technological utopia brought to you by the convergence of what Rifkin calls the Communications Internet (how information is shared), the Energy Internet (how energy needs are shared and energy itself is distributed), and the Logistics Internet (how products are built and delivered), all equaling the so-called Internet of Things.

????Granted, the initial cost of building such a system will be substantial. But once it's up and running, Rifkin argues, the benefits will fundamentally reshape our economic order. "The Internet of Things is already boosting productivity to the point where the marginal cost of producing many goods and services is nearly zero, making them practically free," Rifkin writes. "The result is corporate profits are beginning to dry up, property rights are weakening, and an economy based on scarcity is slowly giving way to an economy of abundance."

????Actually, corporate profits in the U.S. are increasing, both in absolute terms and as a portion of national income. Sure, some industries are struggling against the waves of technological disruption (e.g. almost the entire media sector). And then there are energy giants like Exxon and Chevron, which are facing daunting, expensive headwinds in the search for and cultivation of additional sources of fossil fuel. But businesses overall are making money, and quite a bit of it.

????Where does capitalism fit into Rifkin's world? "In the coming era," he says, "both capitalism and socialism will lose their once-dominant hold over society, as a new generation increasingly identifies with Collaboratism."

????To explain how we reached this novel economic moment, The Zero Marginal Cost Society takes readers on a grand historical tour, from feudal Europe, to Adam Smith and Karl Marx, to the rise of steam, steel, and railroads, and the oil age. Rifkin argues that creating the industrial order of the past few centuries was so expensive that it required massive, publicly held companies like General Electric, Ford, and AT&T. Electrifying society, connecting them by phone and rail, and putting the masses behind the wheel of a car were wildly ambitious projects. Centralized corporations were up to this task. Today, Rifkin argues, those companies are becoming less relevant.

????To Rifkin, we are entering the age of the social commons, where ownership of goods is less essential to consumers than merely having access to them, pointing to car sharing services like Zipcar, apartment sharing sites like Airbnb and Courchsurfing.com, and children's toy exchanges like Baby Plays and Spark Box Toys as pioneers. Expand this kind of behavior to other parts of the economy -- peer-to-peer renewable energy sharing and crowdfunded personal and business loans, for example -- and all sorts of companies may soon end up selling far fewer goods and services to even fewer people. You would need to put aside measurements like GDP and profits to gauge the success of such an economy.