????感恩節(jié)又要到了，正是最適合聊聊火雞的時(shí)候。不，大家可別以為這種雞是感恩節(jié)當(dāng)晚的傳統(tǒng)菜式?！盎痣u”在英文里還有一層意思，是指那些最初看起來(lái)很高明，后來(lái)卻徹底搞砸的交易和戰(zhàn)略，也可以理解成冤大頭。所以，要是出現(xiàn)這樣的情況，西方人也會(huì)來(lái)上一句：“好家伙，搞的好大一只火雞！”

????《財(cái)富》雜志高級(jí)主編艾倫?斯隆盤(pán)點(diǎn)了2013年的公共與私企領(lǐng)域年度最失誤決策，以下是他列出的幾只冤大頭“火雞”。

????杠桿收購(gòu)TXU

????2007年，華爾街最精明的三家金融機(jī)構(gòu)——高盛（Goldman Sachs）、KKR（科爾伯格－克拉維斯－羅伯茨）和TPG（德州太平洋集團(tuán)）聯(lián)手對(duì)德克薩斯州公用事業(yè)公司（TXU）發(fā)起杠桿收購(gòu)。這筆收購(gòu)規(guī)模高達(dá)480億美元，堪稱史上最大的一筆企業(yè)私有化交易。連股神巴菲特都沒(méi)能和這只“火雞”擺脫干系。當(dāng)時(shí)，巴菲特斥資20億美元買下表現(xiàn)不佳的TXU債券，押注TXU經(jīng)營(yíng)會(huì)有起色，可這家公司一直沒(méi)能像巴菲特期望的那樣實(shí)現(xiàn)營(yíng)利，而今反倒走入了協(xié)商破產(chǎn)的窮途末路。收購(gòu)TXU的幾家機(jī)構(gòu)為完成私有化的公司起了一個(gè)新名字：能源未來(lái)控股（Energy Future Holdings）。斯隆倒是很喜歡這個(gè)名字?？上?，他們根本不知道迎接新生TXU的竟然是那樣的未來(lái)。

????收購(gòu)《波士頓環(huán)球報(bào)》

????1993年，《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》所屬的紐約時(shí)報(bào)公司（New York Times Co. ）以10.28億美元現(xiàn)金與股票收購(gòu)贏得了《波士頓環(huán)球報(bào)》（Boston Globe）的所有權(quán)。這也許足以成為史上最失敗的報(bào)業(yè)收購(gòu)案。今年10月，紐約時(shí)報(bào)公司作價(jià)7000萬(wàn)美元出售《波士頓環(huán)球報(bào)》和馬薩諸塞州的報(bào)業(yè)公司W(wǎng)orcesterTelegram & Gazette。后者是紐約時(shí)報(bào)公司于2000年以2.96億美元現(xiàn)金收購(gòu)的下屬公司。根據(jù)今年紐約時(shí)報(bào)的售價(jià)計(jì)算，該公司兩次收購(gòu)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)值已經(jīng)縮水約95%。正所謂屋漏偏逢連夜雨，因未能成功利用設(shè)立平行雙傀儡公司（double horizontal dummy）的手法避稅，紐約時(shí)報(bào)公司失去了1.6億美元本該享有的稅收抵扣，所得稅款由此增加了約6000萬(wàn)美元。雖然《財(cái)富》與《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，但斯隆列舉這只“火雞”并沒(méi)有幸災(zāi)樂(lè)禍的意思，不是為了成心讓《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》的母公司難堪。只不過(guò)，在年末盤(pán)點(diǎn)冤大頭交易的時(shí)候，他不禁想起了這筆交易因?yàn)殄e(cuò)失雙傀儡公司的機(jī)會(huì)而雪上加霜。這么極品的例子，誰(shuí)又能忘得了？

????入股杰西潘尼

????兩位貨真價(jià)實(shí)的華爾街精英——對(duì)沖基金公司Pershing Square的創(chuàng)始人比爾?阿克曼與美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)信托巨頭Vornado Realty Trust的首席執(zhí)行官史蒂文?羅斯都曾大量購(gòu)買榮登財(cái)富500強(qiáng)榜單的連鎖百貨公司杰西潘尼（J.C. Penney）股票。他們?yōu)檫@家經(jīng)營(yíng)不善的百年老店杰西潘尼請(qǐng)來(lái)了締造蘋(píng)果零售營(yíng)業(yè)輝煌的羅恩?約翰遜，讓蘋(píng)果的這位功臣統(tǒng)領(lǐng)一家典型的傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)公司。約翰遜上任后最出名的決定莫過(guò)于未經(jīng)任何考證就當(dāng)機(jī)立斷，下令杰西潘尼旗下所有的連鎖店統(tǒng)統(tǒng)鳥(niǎo)槍換炮，走高檔路線。誰(shuí)知外來(lái)的和尚沒(méi)念好經(jīng)。只要約翰遜和任何一位在杰西潘尼店內(nèi)稍作停留的顧客交流一下就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，銷售內(nèi)衣和出售高利潤(rùn)的蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品截然不同，前者面對(duì)的是擅長(zhǎng)殺價(jià)的精明消費(fèi)者，追捧后者的是樂(lè)意為任何一款時(shí)髦電子產(chǎn)品接受全額零售價(jià)的買家。今年約翰遜收到了辭職信，阿克曼與羅斯蒙受了巨大損失。杰西潘尼如今正奮力擺脫困境，避免與以上兩只“火雞”成為難兄難弟。斯隆認(rèn)為，這又一次提醒我們：華爾街不同于傳統(tǒng)商圈。

????美國(guó)聯(lián)邦政府關(guān)門(mén)

????美國(guó)人還要把這出鬧劇翻來(lái)覆去看多少遍？那些狂熱的政客深信自己有權(quán)傷害不堪一擊的民眾。他們干擾了聯(lián)邦機(jī)構(gòu)履行合法職能，使聯(lián)邦政府債務(wù)違約的危險(xiǎn)一觸即發(fā)。若果真的違約，它的殺傷力會(huì)使引爆金融危機(jī)的雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)都相形見(jiàn)絀。和美國(guó)政府債務(wù)違約相比，雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)造成的破壞如同四舍五入的誤差，可以忽略不計(jì)。目睹這場(chǎng)政治鬧劇反復(fù)自動(dòng)播出實(shí)在痛苦至極，就像和一個(gè)茶黨黨人被困在一個(gè)同一個(gè)房間，明明是保守派的茶黨分子還堅(jiān)持要高聲朗讀安?蘭德的名作《阿特拉斯聳聳肩》（Atlas Shrugged）。要知道，蘭德可是信奉自由資本主義的哲學(xué)家。這種折磨誰(shuí)受得了？不，大家已經(jīng)受夠了！

????美國(guó)醫(yī)保網(wǎng)站Healthcare.gov

????盤(pán)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行到現(xiàn)在，這應(yīng)該是到目前為止今年最大的一只“火雞”。從今年10月1日上線至今，這個(gè)聯(lián)邦保險(xiǎn)電子商務(wù)網(wǎng)站到底怎么樣，美國(guó)人都知道。斯隆不無(wú)諷刺地評(píng)論說(shuō)，政府遲早會(huì)讓它走上正道，然后我們就得對(duì)付奧巴馬醫(yī)保法案這部法律了，總之就得不停扯皮拉筋。

????以上就是斯隆整理的本年度美國(guó)“火雞”，最后他祝愿大家感恩節(jié)快樂(lè)，希望我們的投資和生活永遠(yuǎn)都別變成“火雞”。

????譯者：若離

????Thanksgiving is right around the corner, which makes this a perfect time to talk about turkeys. No, not the kind that you devour at the traditional holiday dinner. Rather, transactions and strategies that once looked smart but have turned utterly fowl. The kind of thing that makes you say, "Boy, was that a turkey!"

????Herewith, my turkey list for 2013, from both the public and private sectors.

????TXU buyout

????In 2007 three of the smartest outfits on Wall Street -- Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR, Fortune 500), and Texas Pacific Group -- combined to pull off a $48 billion leveraged buyout of the former Texas Utilities, the biggest going-private transaction in the history of the world. Oops. The deal started going bad about two seconds after it closed because the price of natural gas fell, making TXU's coal-fired plants less competitive. Even Warren Buffett got suckered into this turkey, buying $2 billion of beaten-down bonds and betting on a turnaround that never came. The company is now in bankruptcy talks. I especially love the grand new name the buyout barons gave TXU: Energy Future Holdings. Too bad they had no idea what the future held.

????Boston Globe acquisition

????The $1.028 billion cash and stock takeover of the Globe's owner by the New York Times Co. (NYT) in 1993 is probably the worst newspaper purchase in history. And that's saying something. In October, the Times unloaded the Globe and the Worcester (Mass.)Telegram & Gazette, which it bought for $296 million in cash in 2000, for a combined $70 million. That's about 95% less than it paid. To add a drumstick, the Times Co. (as I've written before) failed to use a double horizontal dummy (love that name!) structure to do the Globe buyout, and as a result lost a $160 million tax deduction that it could have had. That makes Times Co.'s income tax bill about $60 million higher than it had to be. I take no special delight in tormenting the owner of the New York Times, a Fortunecompetitor. But I just can't resist cackling about a turkey deal that involves a missing double dummy. Who could?

????The bad Penney

????Two really smart Wall Street guys, Bill Ackman of the Pershing Square hedge fund and Steve Roth of Vornado Realty Trust, bought tons of J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500)stock and got its board to hire Ron Johnson, the architect of Apple's wildly successful retail operation, to run this archetypal Main Street company. Johnson famously decided to take the whole chain upscale all at once without doing any testing. He discovered what anyone who has spent more than three seconds in a JCP store could have told him: that selling underwear to bargain hunters isn't the same as selling trendy, high-margin iWhatevers to buyers happy to pay full retail. Johnson got fired this year; Ackman and Roth took big losses. The company is now struggling to survive the turkey trio. Repeat after me: Wall Street isn't Main Street.

????The government shutdown, etc.

????How many times do we have to revisit this show? Zealots utterly convinced that they're right have hurt vulnerable people, disrupted legitimate federal functions, and come close to triggering a federal debt default that would have made the damage from Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy look like a rounding error. Watching this show repeat itself is as excruciating as being trapped in a room with a Tea Party type who insists on reading Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged aloud. Enough, already!

????Healthcare.gov

????This is by far the biggest turkey of the year. We all know what's happened since the site went live -- sort of -- on Oct. 1. But sooner or later, the government will get the website right. I suppose. Then we'll have to deal with Obamacare itself. Gobble, gobble, gobble.

????Okay, I'm flocked out. Have a great Thanksgiving. And may your investment portfolios -- and lives -- be turkey-free.